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Sunday, 15 February 2004
"Seven Months Ago" A longer term view examining the selections of the week of July 21, 2003
Hello Friends! I am sure glad you chose to stop by here....by all means make yourself at home! Explore the website, the picks, and feel free to let me know what you think. You can reach me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com Remember to always do your own 'due diligence' before making any decisions based on information on this website and that you consult with your own investment advisors!

In order to help me assess the usefulness of the methods I employ, I like to post my ideas on the website, purchase some of them myself (see my current trading account), and then follow-up, by reviewing past selections. That is what I call my 'housekeeping' or 'homework' for the weekend. Today, moving a week ahead of last week's review, I will take a look at the week of July 21, 2003. By that time, this website was up almost three months, and I was definitely getting a system together. This was a busy week for selections, with 10 picks posted here.

On July 21, 2003, I posted Simpson Manufacturing (SSD) at a price of $40.75. Simpson closed on 2/13/04 at $46.07, for a gain of $5.32 or 13.1%. Looking at the news on this stock, SSD announced their 2003 fourth quarter results on January 27, 2004. Fourth quarter net sales were up 22.7% to $133.4 million and net income increased 25.5% to $13.3 million. On a per share diluted basis this was $.53 vs $.43/share the prior year. SSD is doing just fine!

The next stock, DSP Group (DSPG) was posted on Bob's Advice at a price of $25.23 on 7/21/03. DSPG closed on 2/13/04 at $26.01 for a gain of $.78 or 3.1%. Looking at the earnings news on Yahoo.com, I found their fourth quarter 2003 earnings report. This was reported on 1/27/04, revenue came in at $38.1 million, a 36% increase over the $28.7 million the prior year. Net income for the quarter was $6.0 million, a 65% incrrease from the $3.6 million the prior year. DSPG is doing great!

IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) was posted on Bob's Advice on 7/21/03 at a price of $38.29. IDXX closed 2/13/04 at $50.66. This was a gain of $12.37 from the selection price or 32.3%. This was a great performance and looking for the news on this company, we found the fourth quarter 2003 results which were released on 1/26/04. Revenue was up 18% to $124.8 million, however an after-tax charge of $4.5 million in connection with the "extension of its collaboration with Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics, Inc. (OCD), a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson", led to a decrease in earnings by 3% to $12.4 million. Excluding this charge, earnings were $.46/share, an increase of 28% over the same quarter in 2002. I guess the street shrugged off this charge...so everything appears to be intact!

On July 22, 2003, I posted Cognizant Technology on Bob's Advice at a price of $30.22/share. CTSH closed 2/13/04 at $50.13, for a great gain of $19.91/share or 65.9% (!)(too bad I didn't buy any shares :(). Looking for latest earnings, CTSH reported fourth quarter 2003 results on February 10, 2004. Quarterly revenue increased to $108.2 million, a 61% from the prior year. Diluted earnings/share were $.25/share, up from $.14/share the prior year. This company is doing great! In fact, on the same day CTSH announced increased 2004 expectations. Things appear to be humming along just fine with CTSH.

Vital Images (VTAL) was posted on Bob's Advice on July 22, 2003, at $21.66. VTAL is the one stock that I DID own some shares but no longer own any...and has been a big disappointment price-wise closing at $11.10 on 2/13/04 for a loss of $(10.56) or (48.8)%. On February 11, 2004, VTAL announced their Fourth Quarter 2003 financial results: revenue was $5.2 million for the quarter DOWN from $6.2 million th eprior year. Net income was $7,000 or $0.00/share (including a net tax benefit of $.06/share!), compared to $416,000 or $.04/diluted share in 2002. This company does not fulfill requirements of growing revenue/earnings to be recommended on this website!

(Hang in there....we are half way through our review!)

QLT (QLTI) was posted on Bob's Advice on 7/23/03 at a price of $15.39. This maker of Visudyne, a macular degeneration treatment, closed at $23.26 on 2/13/04. This was a gain of $7.87 or 51.1%. On February 11, 2004, QLTI announced their fourth quarter 2003 earnings results. Revenues for the fourth quarter were up 21% to $38.4 million. Net income in the quarter was $9 million or $.13/share vs a loss of $(825,000) or $(.01)/share the prior year. Everything looks good at QLTI imho.

The outdoor clothing company, Columbia Sportswear (COLM) was posted on Bob's Advice on July 24, 2003, at a price of $52.00. COLM closed on 2/13/04 at $53.30, for a gain of $1.30 or 2.5%. On January 29, 2004, COLM reported fourth quarter 2003 results. Sales, adjusting for currency exchange rates, increased 13.1%. Net income increased for the quarter by 10.5% to $32.2 million or $.79/share compared to $.72/share last year. Columbia appears to be doing just fine.

Sierra Health Services (SIE) was posted on Bob's Advice on July 24, 2003, at a price of $27.09. SIE closed on 2/13/04 at $32.51, for a gain of $5.42 or 20%. On January 28, 2004, SIE reported their fourth quarter 2003 results. For the quarter, net income rose to $4.8 million or $.16/share vs a year ago profit of $4.5 million or $.14/share. Revenue for the quarter rose 14% to $373.4 million from $326.9 million a year ago. This company appears to be on track.

On July 24, 2003, I posted Fair Isaac (FIC) on Bob's Advice at $55.42/share. FIC closed 2/13/04 at $61.56, for a gain of $5.14/share or 9.3%. On January 26, 2004, FIC reported first quarter 2004 earnings: revenue for the quarter increased to $169 million from $146 million the prior year or $.59/share vs $.38/share the prior year. This stock appears to doing fine!

Finally, on July 26, 2003, I posted Zoran (ZRAN) on Bob's Advice at a price of $27.28. I bought some ZRAN and sold them shortly after that at a loss!...ZRAN closed on 2/13/04 at $16.11 for a loss of $(12.17) or (44.6)%. On February 2, 2004, ZRAN announced delays in reporting their fourth quarter and 2003 results "...pending conclusion of the Company's 2003 audit procedures." This was not the first delay in this company's earnings results and this is not encouraging (imho). This would not qualify for a recommendation on this site.

How did we do? We had 8/10 stocks with gains ranging from 2.5% to 65.9% and two losers with sharp losses of (48.8)% and (44.6)%. Averaging the performance, gets us an average gain of 10.39%. Not too bad for seven months....

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Regards!

Bob


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