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Wednesday, 14 April 2004
"A Reader Writes" How about HAE, DKE, and SIRI?
Hello Friends! Not much to pick from today in the market but I received a great email today about some other stocks. As always, please do your own investigation of these stocks, and check with your financial advisors to make sure they are appropriate and timely for you!

Briefly, let's take a look at these issues. I do not have any shares of any of these three stocks nor do I own any options or leveraged positions.

Haemonetics (HAE) closed today, 4/14/04, at $29.65, up $.28 or 0.95%. According to the Yahoo "Profile", HAE "...is engaged in developing and manufacturing technology to help ensure the blood supply is safe, supplies are adequate and that blood banks and hospitals operate efficiently and in compliance with regulatory requirements."

On January 22, 2004, HAE reported 3rd quarter 2004 financial results. Revenue came in at $91 million, up 4% from the prior year. Earnings per share were $.38/share, down 10% from the prior year. At first glance, this appears to be a rather anemic revenue performance and a weaker earnings report.

Looking at the "5-Yr Restated" financials from Morningstar.com, we can see that revenue HAS grown fairly steadily from $285 million in 1999 to $347 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings per share have been a bit erratic, peaking at $1.13 in 2003, and then dropping to $.99 in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow has been solid with $41 million in free cash flow in 2001, dropping to $11 million in 2002, but increasing to $50 million in the trailing twelve months. The balance sheet is also healthy with $97.2 million in cash and $168.8 million in other current assets as opposed to $102.4 million in current liabilities and $30 million in long-term liabilities.

What do I think? This may be a GREAT stock, but the latest quarter is a bit of a turn-off for me. I hate to get hung up over one quarter, but that is one of the criteria for me that I use. I would rather see more dynamic revenue growth and certainly earnings improvement to recommend a stock. If you do choose HAE, I wish you the best of luck and hopefully you will make loads of money as there are certainly other issues to consider beyond my screening tests.

Technically, if we look at a "Point and Figure" chart on HAE, we can see that recently HAE reversed a downward move in the market and sometime in about September, 2003, broke through a resistance area about $18 and has moved up smartly since then.

How about those other stocks you mentioned? Duke Energy (DKE) closed today at $13.62 down $(.13) or (0.95%) on the day. DKE is actually Duke Energy Units, and I cannot make heads or tails on this one. In fact, I am having a tough time getting much data on this company at all. You will need to fill me in, as certainly this is not a typical investment and not a "growth stock" that I prefer.

Finally, what about SIRI? SIRI is Sirius Satellite
SIRI closed today, 4/14/04 at $3.75, down $(0.01) or (0.27)%. On January 28, 2004, SIRI announced 4th quarter 2003 financial results. Total revenue was $5.0 million compared to $685,000 the prior year. The net loss was $(147.8) million or $(.14)/share compared to a net loss of $(134.1) million or $(1.74)/share the prior year.

If you follow my BLOG, you will know that I do not like to suggest or invest in stocks of company that are losing money. Even if it is a start-up! That doesn't mean SIRI might not be a GREAT investment for you. What with Chrysler adding on the options for SIRI...but just something I stick to in this website. Even if I am NOT very good at sticking to all of my rules :).

If we look at the "5-Yr Restated" financials on SIRI, we can see that during the last twelve months, they had revenue of $9 million. They lost $(1.94)/share, and had negative cash flow of $(292) million. I mean they lost almost $300 million to produce a revenue of $9 million! Looking at the cash picture, Morningstar shows them with $450.5 million in cash and $54.8 million in other current assets. This is compared with $66.1 million in current liabilities and $270.6 million in long-term liabilities. At this cash "burn" rate, they will be out of cash in about 18 months. On top of this they have been issuing shares like CRAZY to stay afloat. They have gone from 52 million shares in 2001, to 76 million shares in 2002, to 998 million shares in the trailing twelve months.

Just not my best pick imho. However, it might turn out to be a GREAT investment, and if you purchased any of the preceding stocks then I wish you the best of luck!

I hope this discussion was helpful to you. I do not mean to infer that any of the stocks discussed are necessarily BAD investments, just that they don't fit into my selection process. I cannot even get information on DKE. HAE almost makes the cut...so of the 3 that would be my selection if I had to pick one!

Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any further questions, comments, etc., please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 5:16 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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