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Wednesday, 21 April 2004
April 21, 2004 FLIR Systems Inc (FLIR)

Hello Friends! Well Greenspan is still apparently not doing the trick today as the Dow is down as I write but the NASDAQ is up a bit. Overall the earnings appear to be coming in nicely this quarter. That was a nice note from Motorola that is helping the Tech stocks today. As always, please remember to do your own due diligence, and investigations, on all of the stocks discussed on this website. Please discuss all investment decisions with your own investment advisor prior to making any decisions based on information on this website to make sure they are appropriate and timely for you.

FLIR Systems (FLIR) came out with earnings today and the stock is responding nicely. I do not own any shares or have any leveraged positions in this equity. Currently, as I write, FLIR is trading at $43.13, up $4.73 on the day or 12.32%. According to the Yahoo "Profile", FLIR "...designs, manufactures and markets thermal imaging and stabilized airborne camera systems for a wide variety of applications in the commercial, industrial and government markets." I suspect they are doing well in this increased defense-spending environment.

What really bumped the stock up this morning was the announcement of 1st quarter 2004 results. FLIR reported that total revenue increased 57% to $108.9 million from $69.2 million for the same quarter last year. Net earnings for the quarter jumped 39% to $12.7 million or $.36/diluted share compared to last year's $9.2 million or $.25/diluted share.

Looking at the "5-Yr Restated" financials on Morningstar.com, we see that revenue growth which was a bit anemic between 1998 to 2000 increasing from $177.3 million to $186.4 million, picked up strongly after that with $289.5 million in the trailing twelve months. Extrapolating the current quarter gets us closer to $400 million for 2004.

Earnings, which dropped to a loss of $(.90) in 2000, have also picked up and are up to $1.20 in the trailing twelve months, and extrapolating the current $.36/share, would get us about $1.44 without any additional growth in 2004.

Again, from Morningstar, free cash flow which was a negative $(3) million in 2000, has improved significantly and is up to $36 million in the trailing twelve months.

What about the balance sheet? According to Morningstar, FLIR is flush with cash with $202.9 million in cash reported AND $160.5 million in other current assets, as compared to only $65.7 million in current liabilities and $214.8 million in long-term liabilities, so this department looks just fine.

How about valuation? Looking at "Key Statistics" on Yahoo, we can see that the Market Cap is a mid-cap $1.4 Billion with a trailing p/e of 33.23, and a forward p/e (fye 31-Dec-05) of 21.97...so the p/e is dropping fast based on strong growth. Thus the PEG is at 1.39 which isn't bad although price/sales a little rich at 4.08.

Yahoo reports 33.13 million shares outstanding with 28.20 million of them that float. Currently, as of 3/8/04, there are 2.58 million shares out short...which is a LOT for this company representing 9.16% of the float or 8.581 trading days of volume to cover. We may be in the midst (?) or the beginning of a short squeeze.

No cash dividend is paid, and the last stock split was as recently as May, 2003, when FLIR split 2:1.

How about technicals? Looking at a "Point & Figure Chart" from Stockcharts.com, we can see that FLIR broke through a resistance level at about $18 in October, 2002, and has traded steadily higher since.

Overall, I like this stock. Why don't I buy some then? Well, you know my rule about not overextending myself...I mean I am at about 42% equity now!! And what I am waiting for is to sell a portion of one my positions at one of our targeted prices...and am just not there yet! I do like the recent quarterly report, the consistent earnings growth in fact accelerating recently...and the PEG isn't bad a bit over 1.3...oh well. Will register this on the blog and follow for now...may have another entry point.

Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:58 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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