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Sunday, 25 April 2004
"Seven Months Ago" A longer term view examining the week of September 29, 2003

Hello Friends! Well from the previous post, you can see that the past seven weeks were NOT very kind to my picks...but seven months ago, especially with one selection, our picks were on fire! Remember, to PLEASE do your own homework on all stocks selected, use your investment advisors before making any decisions, and always remember that past performance is NO GUARANTEE of future performance!

The week of September 29, 2003, was a week when I posted six selections. Of these stocks, I purchased only one in my "Current Trading Portfolio": AnnTaylor, a stock which I still own and have sold a portion for a gain already.

On 9/29/03 I posted SFBC International (SFCC) on Stock Picks at $30.25. SFCC closed on 4/23/04 at $31.90 for a gain of $1.65 or 5.5%.

Looking at the news for recent earnings to see if the company is STILL performing, SFCC should be reporting their earnings in just a day or two, but the last earnings report was their Fourth Quarter 2003 results which were posted on 2/17/04. Revenue came in at $33.6 million, a 46.5% increase over the $23.0 million the prior year. Net earnings for the fourth quarter increased 40.1% to $4.2 million compared to $3.0 million the prior year. On a fully diluted basis they came in a little less impressive at $.43/share vs. $.40/share the prior year. This less impressive result reflects an increase of 29.3% of average shares due to a November, 2003, share offering. Overall, this company appears to be doing just fine but I would watch closely at future share offerings to make sure their is no continued dilution of earnings.

On 9/30/03, I picked AnnTaylor (ANN) for Stock Picks at $32.14/share. (I also purchased some shares for my trading account shortly thereafter). ANN closed at $42.00 on 4/23/04, for a gain of $9.86 or 30.7%.

As I always like to emphasize, one of the BEST ways of assessing a retail stock in addition to the usual methods of revenue growth and earnings is to look at the "same store sales numbers". These numbers adjust for new outlets to examine the sales of existing stores compared to the prior year. Anything positive is always healthy and anything over 8 or 9% is great. On 4/8/04, ANN announced March Sales results which showed that for the five week period ended April 3, 2004, net sales increased 23.6% (!) to $170.8 million from $138.2 million the prior year. Comparable store sales were up 12.0%. These are great numbers. In addition, ANN went ahead and RAISED first quarter earnings guidance to $.54-$.56 from a range of $.47-$.49 previously estimated. It is almost ALWAYS bullish for a stock to have the company raising earnings expectations!

How about earnings for ANN? Last month, on March 9, 2004, ANN announced 4th quarter 2003 results. Total net sales were $448.7 million, up 27.4% from the $352.2 million the prior year. Net income came in at $31.5 million or $.65/share compared to net income of $16.1 million or $.35/share the prior year. These are GREAT results, in my humble opinion.

O.K. here was the STAR of the week. And the STAR of the entire blog. And I DID NOT BUY A SINGLE SHARE!....oh well, even a genius (lol) can make a mistake. TASER International (TASR) was posted on Stock Picks at $29.25. TASR had a 3:1 split on 2/11/04, making our posted price, adjusted for the split, now get this....drum roll please.......$9.75. TASR closed at $81.15 on 4/23/04 for a gain of...now get this....$71.40 or.....drum roll again.....732.3%. And I did NOT BUY A SINGLE SHARE. Yikes.

How about earnings? On April 20, 2004, TASR reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Revenues came in at $13.1 million, a 286% increase over 1st quarter 2003 results, and diluted earnings per share came in at $.24/share, an 700% increase over the $.03 reported the prior year. Hmmm, a tiny stock with great numbers. If you read the original post, you will see that everything was in line for a 'rocket' with great numbers and a LARGE short position at the time of the post....I am kicking myself now....and I DID NOT BUY A SHARE. oh well.

On 10/2/03, I posted UTStarcom (UTSI) on my blog at $35.23. UTSI closed on 4/23/04 at $29.15, for a loss of $(6.08) or (17.3)%.

How about earnings? On January 22, 2004, UTSI announced 4th quarter 2003 results. Net sales came in at $643.6 million, a 114% increase over net sales of $301.1 million the prior year. Net income came in at $66.4 million or $.52/share compared to $33.9 million or $.30/share, a 96% year-over-year increase in net income. These were great numbers! So even though the stock price has declined since the selection, I would still be interested in reading the upcoming earnings result for the first quarter 2004.

On October 3, 2003, I posted Genesis Microchip (GNSS) On Stock Picks at a price of $13.28. GNSS closed on 4/24/04 at a price of $19.72 for a gain of $6.44 or 48.5%.

On January 22, 2004, GNSS announced 3rd quarter 2004 results. Revenue for the quarter ended December 31, 2003, came in at $56.5 million up from $51.7 million the prior year. Diluted eps came in at $.01/share up from a loss of $(.22)/share the prior year. These were nice, if not impressive results. I would again await the soon to be announced 4th quarter 2004 results before endorsing this stock!

Finally, on October 3, 2003, I posted Bentley Pharmaceutical (BNT) on the blog at $15.69. BNT closed at $13.03 on 4/23/04 for a loss of $(2.66) or (17.0)%.

On February 26, 2004, BNT reported 4th quarter 2003 results. For the quarter ended December 31, 2003, total revenues increased 57% (29% adjusted for currency changes) to a record $18.1 million from $11.5 million the prior year. Net income came in at $.08/diluted share, compared to $.03/diluted share the prior year. These were nice results.

In summary, I posted six stocks during the week of September 29, 2003. Two stocks declined in price: UTSI (17.3)%, and BNT (17.0)%. Four stocks had nice gains: SFCC 5.5%, ANN 30.7%, GNSS 48.5%, and TASR 732.3%. The average performance, greatly influenced by TASR came in at a gain of 130.45%. This is a performance I cannot EVER hope to duplicate...well I can HOPE but I cannot, nor should you expect!

Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Regards and have a great Sunday!

Bob


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