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Saturday, 29 May 2004
"The Annual Review" Looking back on the week of May 26, 2003

Hello Friends! It is a RAINY Saturday here in Wisconsin. I hope you all are staying nice and dry today. This is now the third week that I have had the pleasure of looking back on selections from a YEAR ago! I think this is VERY helpful to understanding the effectiveness of this process on this blog. I don't just want to put names out in cyberspace without finding out whether they actually did ok! As always, please remember that I am an AMATEUR investor, so do your own investigation of all of these stocks, and PLEASE consult with your own professional investment advisor to make sure they are appropriate and timely for you.

On May 27, 2003, I posted Westcorp (WES) on Bob's Advice at a price of $24.41. WES closed at $42.95 on 5/28/04 for a gain of $18.54 or 76%.

How about recent earnings? On April 13, 2004, WES reported 1st quarter 2004 results. First quarter net income was up 84% to $43 million, with EPS gaining 38% to $.83. In addition, WES raised guidance for 2004 results. This was a very nice report!

Dearborn Bancorp (DEAR) was selected for Stock Picks on 5/27/03 at a price of $22.50. DEAR closed on 5/28/04 at a price of $26.589 for a gain of $4.09 or 18.2%. However, I just realized they paid a 5% stock dividend in 12/03, so our return works out to 24.1% for this period.

On 4/20/04, DEAR announced 1st quarter 2004 results. DEAR announced earnings for the quarter of $1.2 million or $.36/diluted share up 102% from the $580,000 or $.19/diluted share last year. In addition, just a few days ago, on 5/19/04, DEAR declared a 5% stock dividend. This will not actually increase our return, but this was also declared in 12/3/03...so this is the second 5% stock dividend this year....so our actual cost on the "pick" was $21.43....and our ACTUAL return was 24.1% during this period!

On 5/28/03, I posted Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) on the blog at a price of $29.07. ANF closed at $36.43 on 5/28/04 for a gain for the year of $7.36 or 25.3%.

On May 11, 2004, ANF reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Net sales for the thirteen week period ended May 1, 2004, increased 19% to $411.9 million from $346.7 million last year. On the downside of the report the same store sales figure were FLAT. This is the only part of the story that disturbs me. I really insist on same store sales gains when thinking about a retail stock for possible investment. Anyhow, earnings on a fully diluted basis DID jump 19% to $.31 vs $.26 last year....but again, with same store sales FLAT, this would suggest that the growth in revenue and earnings was by ADDING additional outlets....and not by what I would call internal growth.

May 28, 2003, found me posting Krispy Kreme (KKD) on Stock Picks at a price of $34.35. As those of you who follow the market know, KKD has recently come under pressure due to lackluster results and possibly feeling the effect of the Atkins "low-carb craze". (I have been watching my carbs on and off like lots of ineffective dieters!). KKD closed at $21.47 on 5/28/04 for a LOSS of $(12.88) or (37.5)%.

On May 25, 2004, KKD reported 1st quarter results. The company reported that it LOST $(24.4) million or $(.38)/share vs a profit of $38.8 million or $.61/share last year. Revenue did rise 24% to $184.4 million, with same store sales up 4%. So all was not bad in the report...but the loss (based on a write-off)...is still disturbing.

Medical Staffing Network (MRN) was posted on Stock Picks on 5/29/03 at a price of $7.52. MRN closed at $6.59 on 5/28/04 for a loss of $(.93) or (12.4)%.

On May 5, 2004, MRN announced 1st quarter 2004 results. Revenues came in at $106.4 million a DECREASE of 26.1% from first quarter 2003 revenues of $144.0 million. Loss came in at $(.6) million or $(.02)/share vs. net income of $5.3 million or $.17/share in the first quarter 2003. All I can say is that these results look DISMAL. (At least from my "earnings momentum" perspective).

Hovnanian Enterprises, the home-builder, was posted on Stock Picks on 5/29/03 at a price of $56.29. HOV had a 2:1 stock split in March, 2004, givin the pick an effective price of $28.15. HOV closed 5/28/04 at a price of $35.30 for a gain of $7.15 or 25.4%.

On March 1, 2004, HOV reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Total revenues increased 24% to $775.2 million from $627.6 million last year. Net income came in at $57.7 million or $1.74/diluted share vs $44.8 million, or $1.35/diluted share last year. These were nice results...although analysts had expected a bit more!

On May 29, 2003, I posted Dollar General on Stock Picks Bob's Advice at a price of $17.80. DG closed at $19.40 on 5/28/04 for a gain of $1.60 or 9% over the year.

Just two days ago, on 5/27/04, DG reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Net sales for the first quarter increased 11.4% to $1.75 billion from $1.57 billion. Just as important, same store sales during the period increased 3.0%. Net income came in at $67.8 million, a 12.5% increase over the $60.3 million last year, or $.20/diluted share this year vs. $.18/diluted share last year. These are o.k. results but not exactly spectacular, imho.

FINALLY, Eon Labs (ELAB) was posted on Stock Picks on 5/30/03 at $29.55. ELAB closed on 5/28/04 at $75.60 (!) for a gain of $46.05 during the past year or 156%. Now the SAD part of this is that I DID own some shares but got "shaken out" on some stories I read on the internet...will have to stick tighter to these stocks in the future!

On April 22, 2004, ELAB reported 1st quarter results. Net sales came in at $104.2 million, a 47.1% increase from the comparable quarter in 2003. Net income came in at $32.3 million, compared to $15.1 million the prior year an increase of 113.9%. And diluted earnings per share came in at $.71/share (or $.58/share excluding a one-time gain of $10 million for a payment received in litigation), compared to $.33/share last year. These are GREAT results and as you can see, the stock has responded accordingly!

So how did we do this week a year ago? Over the past year these stocks have returned an average gain of 33.2%. We had two stocks declining (KKD and MRN) with losses of (37.5)% and (12.4)% respectively, and seven stocks gaining. This was a pretty nice performance! However, as you know, past performance is NO guarantee of future performance....but maybe, just maybe we are onto something on this blog!

Thanks so much for stopping by! I hope you have a safe and happy Memorial Day Weekend! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


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