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Friday, 11 June 2004
"The Annual Review" Looking back on the week of June 2, 2003

Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by. I was away from my computer this past week so I haven't been making many entries here. Every once in a while I "get a life." Before I go any further, let me please remind you that I am an AMATEUR investor so PLEASE check with your professional investment advisors regarding the appropriateness of investments discussed on this website for your particular needs.

The week of June 2, 2003, was quite a busy week for this blog. I actually wrote up THIRTEEN different stocks that week! I think now that I have settled into a groove in this blog, I find myself posting only one or two at the most. We really have quite a few stocks to work with here! If any of you have stocks that you feel I should discuss here, please email with them or with any other questions at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

On June 2, 2003, I posted Coach (COH) on Bob's Advice at a price of $51.53. COH split 2:1 in October, 2003, making my effective selection price $25.77. I also own COH in my Current Trading Portfolio. COH closed on 6/10/04 at $45.70 for a gain of $19.93 or 77.3%.

On April 20, 2004, COH announced 3rd quarter 2004 results. For the quarter ended March 27, 2004, COH reported net sales of $313.1 million, a 42% increase over the $220.4 million reported the prior year. Net income improved 83% to $58.3 million from $31.9 million the prior year. Earnings per share were up 76% to $.30/share compared to $.17/share the previous year. These are all great results.

The second stock listed that week was Affiliated Computer Services (ACS) which was posted on Stock Picks Bob's Advice on June 2, 2003, at a price of $49.18. ACS closed at $49.75 on 6/10/04, for a gain of $.57 or 1.2%.

On April 20, 2004, ACS announced 3rd quarter 2004 results. Excluding acquisitions, revenue grew to $1.01 billion. "Internal" revenue growth was 14%, the remaining growth was due to acquisitions. Excluding one-time events, earnings per share increased 18% to $.67/share compared to $.57/share the prior year. I am not real excited about all of these exclusions, but the company appears to be doing satisfactorily.

My third selection that week was ExpressJet (XJT) which was selected for Stock Picks on June 2, 2003 at a price of $12.60. XJT closed at $11.78 on 6/10/04 for a loss of $(.82) or (6.5)%.

On April 15, 2004, XJT announced 1st quarter 2004 results. Operating revenue increased 19% to $364.0 million, up from $306.6 million in the first quarter of 2003. Net income came in at $28.7 million or $.53/diluted share, a 33% increase over 2003 results. These results are certainly fine. The Airline Stocks have been under pressure recently due to increased energy costs with the spike in petroleum prices. However, XJT appears to be doing fine in their underlying business as demonstrated by the recent "May, 2004 Performance" report.

On June 3, 2003, I posted Walgreen (WAG) on the blog at a price of $32.17. WAG closed on 6/10/04 at a price of $34.62 for a gain of $2.45 or 7.6%.

On March 22, 2004, WAG reported 2nd quarter 2004 results. Sales jumped 15.8% to $9.8 billion for the second quarter. Net earnings were up 16.9% to $433.5 million or $.42/diluted share from $370.9 million or $.36/diluted share last year. These were great results, but slightly shy of estimates. Recently, WAG reported same store sales results for May, 2004. Comparable store sales were up 8.5% with comparable pharmacy sales up 10.5% and "front-end" sales up 5.3%. These are terrific numbers in my opinion. WAG remains soft along with a lot of the drug company stocks with apparent concerns about Canadian drug sales and governmental programs (in my opinion.)

On June 3, 2003, I posted School Specialty (SCHS) on Stock Picks at a price of $25.45. SCHS closed on 6/10/04 at $35.88 for a gain of $10.43 or 41%.

On June 8, 2004, SCHS announced 4th quarter 2004 results. For the quarter ended April 24, 2004, revenue rose 12% to $161.4 million, boosted by acquisitions. Net LOSS however, WIDENED to $(6.1) million or $(.32)/share compared to $(4.9) million or $(.26)/share the prior year. Even though this seems bad to me, on the same day SCHS announced 2005 outlook which projected earnings of $2.30 to $2.50/share a 19 to 26% increase over 2004 results and consistent with analysts expectations. Overall the street appears to be satisfied with these results. Personally, I would like to see narrowing losses and improving earnings each and every quarter!

June 3, 2003, also found me picking Select Medical (SEM) for Stock Picks at a price of $22.10. SEM closed at $12.92 on 6/10/04 for a loss of $(9.18) or (41.5)%.

On April 27, 2004, SEM announced 1st quarter 2004 results. Net operating revenues for the quarter ended March 31, 2004, increased 35.1% to $422.0 million compared to $312.3 million the prior year. Net income increased 104.6% to $29.6 million compared to $14.5 million the prior year. On a fully diluted basis, this was $.27/share compared to $.15/share the prior year. These were great results but then WHY did SEM drop in price this last year? This was explained by Herb Greenberg on CBS Marketwatch who pointed out that the fastest growing part of its business, operating long-term care hospitals inside existing acute care hospitals faced a "potential crackdown by regulators." The stock has dropped since this became known.

Also on June 3, 2003, I posted United Financial Mortgage (UFM) on Stock Picks at $8.05/share. UFM closed at $5.20 on 6/10/04 for a loss of $(2.85) or (56.4)%.

On March 9, 2004, UFM reported 3rd quarter 2004 results. Revenues decreased $3.2 million to $12.7 million from $15.9 million for the same quarter the prior year. Net income was $638,000, or $.12/diluted share compared to $1.5 million or $.39/share the prior year. These appear to be LOUSY results, and thus the LOUSY stock performance in my opinion.

HANG IN THERE! SEVEN DOWN AND SIX TO GO!!!

On June 4, 2003, I posted E-Loan (EELN) on Stock Picks at a price of $5.06. EELN closed at $2.76 on 6/10/04 for a loss of $(2.30) or (45.5)%.

On April 29, 2004, EELN reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Total revenue came in at $32.02 million down from $36.2 million the prior year in "Total Revenue". Diluted eps came in at $(.02) vs a profit of $.10 the prior year. These are NOT encouraging results in my opinion...and thus would not be continuing to plug this stock!

On June 5, 2003, I posted CarMax (KMX) on Stock Picks at a price of $28.65. KMX closed at $22.50 on 6/10/04 for a loss of $(6.15) or (21.5)%.

On March 30, 2004, KMX reported 4th quarter 2004 results. Revenue for the quarter rose to $1.12 billion from $946.6 million the prior year. Net income increased 18% to $22.5 million or $.21/share up from $19.1 million or $.18/share the prior year. These results and guidance for the next quarter were UNDER analysts expectations and the stock subsequently declined. In fact, on June 4, 2004, just a few days ago KMX reported 1st quarter same store sales results actually DECLINED 3%. For any retail venture, declining same store sales results are a NEGATIVE for any investor.

On June 5, 2003, I wrote up Mothers Work (MWRK) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice at a price of $25.55. MWRK closed at $23.22 on 6/10/04 for a loss of $(2.33) or (9.1)%.

On June 3, 2004, MWRK announced May, 2004, same store sales results. Blaming a loss of a Saturday in the month, they related that stores open at least a year had sales that FELL 3%. Not good. The latest quarterly report was announced on April 27, 2004. For the quarter ended March 31, 2004, net sales increased 13.0% to $125.8 million with comparable store sales increasing 0.2% for the quarter. Net income came in at $.4 million or $.08/diluted share vs $.3 million or $.06/diluted share last year. These at best appear to be lukewarm results.

On June 5, 2003, I posted American Pharmaceutical Partners (APPX) on Stock Picks at $37.39. APPX split 3:2 so our actual selection price was $24.93. APPX closed on 6/10/04 at $31.01 for a gain of $6.08 or 24.4%.

On April 21, 2004, APPX announced 1st quarter 2004 results. Sales increased 10% to $89.2 million. However, net income came in at $11.8 million or $.16/diluted share vs. $17.1 million or $.23/diluted share in 2003. However, they emphasized anticipated excess of 20% in growth of sales in 2004. Overall, the street was satisfied with these results. Personally, I would prefer to see continued earnings growth ALONG with the revenue growth.

Also on June 5, 2003, I posted Christopher & Banks (CBK) on Stock Picks at $33.45. CBK split 3:2 on 8/28/03 for a net effective pick price of $22.30. CBK closed on 6/10/04 at $17.26 for a loss of $(5.04) or (22.6)%.

On June 3, 2004, CBK announced May Same store sales which fell 6% attributed to "weak sweater sales". They also announced REDUCED expectations for the first quarter of between $.26 and $.27/share. In April, they HAD announced expectations of $.28 to $.30/share. The street did NOT like this news...for good reason!

FINALLY (sigh), on June 6, 2003, I posted Cardinal Health (CAH) on Stock Picks at $64.17. CAH closed at $68.84 on 6/10/04 for a gain of $4.67 or 7.3%.

On April 22, 2004, CAH announced 3rd quarter results. Revenue rose 14% to $14.6 billion and earnings per diluted share improved 15% to $.98/share. These were good results!

In summary, my 13 selections experienced a net LOSS of (3.41)% for the year period. I was affected by declining retail sales for the specialty retailers listed, climbing petroleum costs, and climbing interest rates. This shows that this method is not infallible, cannot be followed by blindly holding these equities, and must be actively managed by sales of stocks that decline!

I hope this was helpful for you to review our past picks! The last two reviews showed strong gains in the 30% range...but this week was ANYTHING BUT strong!

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Have a GREAT weekend everyone!

Bob


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