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Saturday, 26 June 2004
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of June 16, 2003





Hello Friends! It is hard to believe that it is the weekend already....wasn't I just posting this review a few moments ago? Oh well, I KNOW it sounds trite, but it IS so true. Thanks so much for stopping by! I hope that you enjoy your visit and maybe some ideas will stimulate your own thinking on investments. As always please remember that I am an AMATEUR investor so PLEASE do your own investigation on all stocks discussed on this website and PLEASE consult with your professional investment advisors!

If you are new around here, or if you are viewing this entry on a third-party website, you might not be familiar with my activity here. What I like to do is look at stocks each day (almost) and scan through the big gainers. I believe some of your best stock market movers will be found there! I review their latest quarterly result, their five year results as presented on Morningstar.com, some basic valuation questions, and a quick check on what their chart looks like. I had a more professional investor tell me that what I was doing was JUST due diligence. I guess if that is what it is, I am ok with it....anyhow, I post these stocks, write why I like them, and then on weekends, when I get a chance, I review past picks to see how they turned out. In addition, I share with you my actual trading portfolio. I have other investments managed by professionals....but what I call my trading portfolio is real and is what I control. That's it in a nutshell! As always, if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, you are MORE than welcome to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com .

On June 16, 2003, a bit over a year ago, I posted Quest Diagnostics (DGX) at $64.28. DGX closed at $87.30 on 6/25/04 for a gain of $23.02 or 35.8%.

On April 22, 2004, DGX reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Revenue grew 14.9% over prior-year levels to $1.3 billion (reflecting the acquisition of Unilab.) Net income came in at $116.1 million in 2004 vs $88.0 million in the 2003 1st quarter. On a fully diluted basis, this came in at $1.13/share vs $.88/share last year. This company is doing great!

Dominion Homes (DHOM) was posted on Stock Picks on 6/16/03 at a price of $24.50. DHOM closed on 6/25/04 at $23.87 for a loss of $(.63) or (2.6)%.

Dominion is feeling the effects of the anticipated series of interest rate rises which will likely put a damper on the red-hot housing sector. On May 3, 2004, DHOM reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Diluted earnings per share for the quarter ended March 31, 2004, increased 5% to $.62/share from $.59/share the prior year. Revenues for the quarter were up 11.2% to $115.7 million, based on 634 home delivieries, vs $104.0 million in 2003 when 569 homes were delivered. These 'nice' results were tempered by the June 2, 2004, announcement that home sales for the second quarter will be "significantly below" the prior year results. This stock explains a bit of my reluctance with all of these homebuilders....if you can ride them with the cycle you can do well....but personally, I prefer less cyclical issues that can show persistent growth through all economic cycles. (am I dreaming?)

On June 16, 2003, I selected American Home Mortgage (AHM) for Stock Picks when it was listed on the NASDAQ with symbol AHMH at $19.49. In December, 2003, after the acquisition of Apex Mortgage it reorganized as a REIT, and as of June, 2004, has a new symbol of AHM. AHM closed on 6/25/04 at $26.20 for a gain of $6.71 or 34.4%.

On April 28, 2004, AHM announced 1st quarter 2004 results. Net earnings were $21.2 million vs $16.3 million the prior year. Earnings/diluted share were $.70/share compared to $.96/share the prior year. However, dividends were $.55/share compared to $.10/share last year. On a more optimistic note, the company DID raise 2004 earnings guidance to $3.25 to $3.40/fully diluted share. I am a bit concerned about ANY drop in earnings/share...and with this such an interest-rate sensitive field, imho, I am just a bit cautious about the REITs and building stocks that were so hot last year.

Whitman Education Group (WIX) was posted on Stock Picks on 6/16/03 at a price of $14.89. As was reported on July 1, 2003, Career Education Corp. completed its merger with WIX. Shareholders of WIX received $6 in cash and .138 shares of Career Education (CECO). Since CECO split 2:1 on 8/22/03, this would entitle each share of WIX to receive .276 shares of CECO. CECO closed at $44.97 on 6/25/04, this means that each share of WIX would currently be worth $6 + .276 x $44.97 or $18.41. Thus, this would represent a gain of $3.52 or 23.6%.

On June 17, 2003, I posted Outback Steakhouse (OSI) on Stock Picks at $39.76. OSI closed at $42.20 on 6/25/04 for a gain of $2.44 or 6.1%.

On April 20, 2004, Outback reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Net income was $48.3 million or $.62/diluted share vs. $42.6 million or $.54/diluted share the prior year. Revenues for the quarter increased 25.3% to $816.6 million from $651.7 million the prior year. Overall, the company appears to be doing satisfactorily.

FactSet Research Systems (FDS) was posted on this website on 6/17/03 at a price of $40.39. FDS closed at $47.00 on 6/25/04 for a gain of $6.61 or 16.4%.

On June 15, 2004, FDS reported 3rd quarter 2004 results. Revenue for the quarter jumped 11.9% to $63.6 million from $56.8 million last year. Earnings were up 2.9% to $14.7 million, or $.45/share from $14.3 million, or $.41/share in 2003. These results are o.k. Not enough maybe for me to sell these shares IF I owned them (I don't) but not enough to get my interest peaked.

I posted Macrovision (MVSN) on this blog on 6/18/03 at a price of $21.15. MVSN closed on 6/25/04 at $24.99 for a gain of $3.34 or 15.8%.

On May 3, 2004, MVSN announced 1st quarter 2004 results. Revenue jumped 35% to $38.0 million from $28.1 million in the same quarter last year. Net income was $10.8 million or 55% higher than the $6.9 million the prior year. This worked out to $.21/diluted share up 50% from the $.14/share reported last year. These results were great and the stock moved up accordingly.





I posted LifeCell Corp (LIFC) on the blog at $5.82/share. LIFC closed on 6/25/04 at $11.12 for a gain of $5.30 or 91.1%. (I guess it IS worth the BIG logo...lol)

On April 27, 2004, LIFC reported 1st quarter 2004 results. For the quarter ended March 31, 2004, total revenues came in at $13.8 million, compared to $9.0 million the prior year. Net income was $883,000 or $.03/diluted share vs $218,000 or $.01/diluted share last year. These are very nice results!

Tofutti Brands (TOF) was posted on Stock Picks on 6/18/03 at a price of $2.82. TOF closed on 6/25/04 at a price of $3.05 for a gain of $.23/share or 8.2%.

On May 11, 2004, TOF announced 1st quarter results. Net sales decreased 12% to $4.0 million for the 13 weeks ended March 29, 2003. Operating income decreased to $99,000 from $458,000 the prior year. Net income decreased to $54,000 or $.01/share compared to $269,000 or $.05/share the prior year. These results give me pause. This is NOT what I am looking for in a company.

Hang in there! Just two more to review...

On June 20, 2003, I posted Laboratory Corp. of America (LH) on Stock Picks at $30.68. LH closed on 6/25/04 at a price of $40.60 for a gain of $9.92 or 32.3%.

On April 22, 2004, LH reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Revenues for the quarter were $752.5 million, an increase of 5.7%. Earnings/diluted share increased 19.6% to $.61/share vs. $.51/diluted share the prior year. These are nice results although I would prefer to see a more dynamic revenue growth number.

Forest Laboratories (FRX) was postedon Stock Picks on 6/20/03 to finish off a busy week! They were picked at a price of $54.99. FRX closed at $58.46 on 6/25/04 for a gain of $3.47 or 6.3%.

On April 20, 2004, FRX reported 4th quarter 2004 results. For the quarter ended March 31, 2004, net sales increased 17% to $725.1 million from $621.1 million last year. Net income however DECREASED 20% to $145.5 million. Diluted earnings per share came in at $.38/share vs $.48/share the last year. I like the increased revenue but the decrease in earnings DOES concern me.

So how did Stock Picks do for the week of 6/16/03 last year? Of the 11 stocks picked that week there was only one losing selection, DHOM which was down (2.6)% from the selection price. The other 10 had gains ranging from 6.1% to 91.1% for an average of the 11 selections of a gain of 24.3%. Not too shabby in my humble opinion!

Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com .

Happy Saturday everyone!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:11 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Saturday, 26 June 2004 11:32 AM CDT

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