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Saturday, 3 July 2004
"Looking Back one Year" A review of stock picks from the week of June 23, 2003






Hello Friends! Well we made it to another Saturday. I hope you all have made 4th of July plans....hopefully will get to see some fireworks with the family Sunday....and do the usual 4th of July kinds of things. For any of you who are new around here, well of course make yourself at home, kick back and enjoy the posts. I am an amateur investor, I like to share my ideas about stocks and the market, but please remember to consult with your own professional investment advisor to make sure any investments discussed on this website are appropriate and timely for you. On Weekends, when I get around to it, I like to go back a full year to the early days of this blog and see how the stocks selected are doing now. This approach assumes a buy and hold strategy which is NOT what I do in practice. If a stock drops 8% from the purchase price it is gone. Otherwise, I do continue to hold them and sell portions as the price appreciates.

On June 23, 2003, I posted Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP) on Stock Picks at a price of $26.14. FDP closed at $25.45 on 7/2/04, for a decline of $(.69) or (2.6)%.

On April 27, 2004, FDP reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Net sales increased 11% to $713.8 million for the three months ended March 26, 2004. However, earnings per share came in at $.81/share compared to $1.35/share in the same quarter in 2003. I really prefer to see earnings GROWTH each quarter when I am considering a stock pick.

On June 23, 2003, I posted Factual Data Corp (FDCC) on Stock Picks at a price of $19.18. FDCC was acquired by Kroll (KROL) for $14.00 and .1497 shares of KROL. Currently with KROL at $36.88/share as of 7/2/04, this works out to $14.00 + (.1497)($36.88)= $19.52. This works out to a gain of $.34/share or 1.8%.

Bankrate (RATE) was posted on this website at a price of $10.40. RATE closed at $8.12 on 7/2/04 for a loss of $(2.28) or (21.9)%.

On May 4, 2004, RATE announced 1st quarter 2004 results. Revenue jumped 20% to $10.3 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2004, from $8.5 million last year. Net income rose 17% to $2.4 million or $.15/diluted share vs $2.0 million or $.13/diluted share last year. At least superficially, these are nice results. Things have NOT been that smooth for RATE, which on June 21, 2004, announced the replacement of the CEO, and just a week ago, on June 23, 2004, announced guidance for the 2nd quarter 2004: revenue fairly flat quarter over quarter at $10 - $10.2 million, and net income at $.14-$.15/share, which is BELOW last year's $.16/share results. Needless to say, the "street" was not real happy over these announcements!

Digital Insight (DGIN) was picked for Stock Picks on 6/25/03 at a price of $17.96. DGIN closed at $19.61 on 7/2/04 for a gain of $1.65 or 9.2%.

News-wise, it was just announced that DGIN will be added to the Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Index. Being added to an index is usually bullish for a stock as index funds are then required to purchase shares. On April 22, 2004, DGIN reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Revenues for the quarter ended March 31, 2004, increased 29% to $45.7 million from $35.5 million the prior year. Net income grew 46% to $4.2 million or $.11/diluted share from $2.9 million, or $.09/diluted share in 2003. Once again we can see the correlation between good earnings report and price performance of a stock!

On June 25, 2003, I posted Biosite (BSTE) on Stock Picks at a price of $48.15. BSTE closed at $43.60 on 7/2/04 for a loss of $(4.55) or (9.4)%.

On April 28, 2004, BSTE reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Revenues came in at $57.7 million, a 44% increase over the prior year. Net income was $8.9 million or $.55/diluted share, a 50% increase over the same 2003 quarter. Citing strong sales performance in the first quarter, BSTE RAISED 2004 annual growth target range to 25-35% revenue growth and 25-35% earnings growth on a diluted share basis. These are really nice results...but the stock price still lags my selection price!

HANG IN THERE....just three more selections to review!

In a relatively WEAK performance for Stock Picks, Biovail (BVF) was our weakest! BVF was selected for Stock Picks on June 26, 2003, at a price of $49.30. BVF closed on 7/2/04 at $18.90 for a loss of $(30.40) or (61.7)%.

On April 29, 2004, this Toronto-based company announced 1st quarter 2004 results. Revenue for the quarter ended March 31, 2004, came in at $186.6 million DOWN from $191.4 million for the same quarter last year. Net income came in at $21.1 million or $.13/share compared to $57.6 million or $.36/share last year. You can see why the stock has been weak!

I posted CACI Intl (CAI) on this blog at $34.27 on June 27, 2003. I suppose it DOES help to sometimes have a handle on WHAT a firm does, as CACI as received bad press recently as the private contractor involved in the interrogation of Iraqi detainees. ANYWAY, CAI closed at $39.79 on 7/2/04 for a gain of $5.52 from our "pick" price or 16.1%.

This stock has held up due to the strong underlying financial performance. CAI, on May 26, 2004, issued 1st quarter 2006 guidance. They expect revenue to grow 51-55% to approximately $360 million and net income to grow 23% to approximately $16.3 million. These are strong numbers! However, the uncertainty regarding the prison abuse allegations is of great concern to me.

Finally, on June 27, 2003, I selected Online Resources (ORCC) for Stock Picks at a price of $6.17. ORCC closed at $6.57 on 7/2/04 for a gain of $.40/share or 6.5%.

On April 21, 2004, ORCC reported 1st quarter 2004 results. For the quarter ended March 31, 2004, excluding one-time events, revenue grew to $9.8 million compared to $8.8 million the prior year. Net income came in at $419,000 or $.02/share compared with "breakeven" the prior year.

So how BAD was the weak actually? During the week of June 23, 2003, to the present time, those stocks had four winners and four losers. However, the BIG loss on Biovail (BVF) (61.7)%...really pulled down the average performance. The average LOSS for the week worked out to an average loss for the 8 issues of (7.8)%.

Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.coma nd I will try to get back to you ASAP!

Happy 4th of July everyone!

Bob


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