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Friday, 30 July 2004
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of July 21, 2003





Hello Friends! Well we made it to Friday. One political convention down and one to go. Why we even ended up the week with the indices in positive territory! I like to use the weekend to look back on this website about a year earlier and see what happened to those stock picks that were mentioned here. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please do your own investigation into all stocks discussed on this website and please consult with your professional investment advisors before taking any actions based on information here!

On July 21, 2003, I posted IDEXX (IDXX) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice at $38.29. IDXX closed on 7/30/04 at $50.39 for a gain of $12.10 or 31.6%.

On July 23, 2004, IDXX announced 2nd quarter 2004 results. Revenue rose 13% to $137.4 million from $121.8 million the prior year. Quarterly income rose to $23.9 million or $.66/share from $16.7 million, or $.47/share last year. Excluding one-time gains, this still worked out to $.57/share while analysts were looking for $.52. The company also raised estimates of 2004 and 2005 results. All in all, a very nice earnings report for IDXX!

Also on July 21, 2003, I posted DSP Group (DSPG) on my blog at $25.23. DSPG closed at $19.71 on 7/30/04 for a loss of $(5.52) or (21.9)%.

On July 19, 2004, DSPG reported 2nd quarter 2004 results. Revenue for the quarter came in at $44 million, up 14% from $38.6 million the prior year. Net income for the quarter increased 71% to $9.4 million, compared to $5.5 million last year. On a diluted earnings per share basis the earnings increased 58% top $.30/share compared to $.19/share last year. However, on the very next day, DSPG reduced guidance for the second half of 2004 by $.06-$.07 due to lowered revenue expectations. Negative guidance is never helpful in boosting a stock price!

On July 21, 2003, I also posted Simpson Mfg (SSD) on this blog at $40.75. SSD closed 7/30/04 at $56.01 for a gain of $15.26 or 37.4%.

On July 20, 2004, SSD announced 2nd quarter 2004 results. Net sales increased 24.2% to $181.8 million compared to $146.5 million in 2003. Net income increased 23% to $21.8 million for the second quarter of 2004 compared to net income of $17.7 million in 2003. Dilued net income per share came in at $.89 this year compared to $.71/share last year. These look like nice results to me!

On July 22, 2003, I posted Vital Images (VTAL) on my blog at $21.66. VTAL closed on 7/30/04 at $11.49 for a loss of $(10.17) or (47)%.

On April 29, 2004, VTAL announced 1st quarter results. Revenue came at $7.7 million, a 14% over last year's results. They reported a loss of $(1.1) million or $(.09)/share compared to net income of $654,000 or $.07/share the prior year. Clearly the stock has suffered from this earnings deterioration.

On July 22, 2003, I posted Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) here on Stock Picks at $30.22. CTSH split 2:1 on 6/18/04, thus our selection price was effectively $15.11. CTSH closed on 7/30/04 at $27.55 for a gain of $12.44 or 82.3%.

On July 26, 2004, Cognizant announced 2nd quarter earnings results and raised full-year guidance. For the second quarter, revenue increased 59% to $138.7 million from $87.4 million last year. Earnings were $23.8 million or $.17/share up from $13.5 million or $.10/share last year. These were great results!

QLT Inc. (QLTI) was posted on Stock Picks on July 23, 2003, at a price of $15.39. QLTI closed on 7/30/04 at $17.95 for a gain of $2.56 or 16.6%.

On July 22, 2004, QLTI announced 2nd quarter results. Sales of Visudyne were $109.3 million, a 23% increase over sales in the second quarter of 2003. Earnings for the second quarter of 2004 came in at $.20/share, up $.04 from the prior year's second quarter of $.16/share. A satisfactory earnings performance and a subsequent satisfactory price appreciation followed!

Fair Isaac (FIC) was posted on Stock Picks on July 24, 2004, at $55.42. FIC had a 3:2 split in March, 2004, making our selection price effectively $36.95. FIC closed on 7/30/04 at $28.58 for a net loss of $(8.37)/share or (22.7)%.

On July 28, 2004, FIC announced 3rd quarter 2004 results. Revenue was up 6% to $173.2 million from $163.0 million the prior year. Net income totaled $28.8 million or $.39/share on 73.1 million diluted shares, vs net income of $30.0 million or $.40/share on 79.4 million diluted shares. Thus revenue was up only slightly, and net income was actually DOWN. Thus, we have the price pull-back!

On July 24, 2003, I posted Sierra Health Services (SIE) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice at a price of $27.09. SIE closed at $44.20 on 7/30/04 for a gain of $17.11 or 63.2%.

On July 21, 2004, SIE announced 2nd quarter results. Revenues grew to $441 million from $370 million a year ago. Earnings came in at $38.2 million, or $1.10/share up from $20.3 million, or $.67/share last year. These are GREAT results! In addition, the company BOOSTED ESTIMATES for 2004 to between $3.35 and $3.45 from the prior guidance of $2.90 to $3.00. Clearly this company is "firing on all cylinders"!

Finally, on July 24, 2003, I posted Columbia Sportswear (COLM) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice at $52.00/share. COLM closed at $54.75/share on 7/30/04 for a gain of $2.75/share or 5.3%.

On July 21, 2004, Columbia Sportswear announced 2nd quarter results. Global sales increased 12.5% to $171.1 million. Net income rose to $10.7 million or $.26/share compared with $9.4 million or $.23/share the prior year. In addition, COLM also raised its net income outlook to between 10 to 11% growth over 2003. They also announced that 3rd quarter net income to show a 3-5% growth with revenue up 9-10%.

So overall how did we do? We had results ranging from a loss of (47)% with Vital Images (VTAL), to a gain of 82.3% with Cognizant (CTSH). In summary, during the past year, this week's selections had six positive returns and four negative returns with an average gain of 16.1% for all nine stocks posted that week!

Thanks again for stopping by! I hope the rest of your weekend goes well. Remember, as always that I am an amateur investor so please consult with your professional investment advisors. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com .

Bob



Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 8:29 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Saturday, 31 July 2004 11:10 PM CDT

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