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Saturday, 14 August 2004
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of July 28, 2003 (Including July 26, 2003)






Hello Friends! Sorry about missing the "review" last weekend. I was away from my computer and thought it best to take a week off! It didn't really help the market lol but a guy just has to take a break once in awhile! Thanks again for stopping by! If you are new here, and even if you are a return visitor, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website, Stock Picks Bob's Advice.

On July 26, 2003, I posted Zoran (ZRAN) on Stock Picks at $27.28. ZRAN closed at $15.57 on 8/13/04, for a loss of $(11.71) or (42.9)%. (Not a very auspicious start for THAT week!)

On July 27, 2004, ZRAN announced 2nd quarter 2004 results. Revenues for the quarter came in at $103.7 million, an increase of 132% over the same quarter in 2003. However, under GAAP, the Company reported a net loss of $(6.1) million or $(.14)/share compared with net income of $4.2 million or $.15/share the prior year. This actually is improved from the prior quarter, but as you know if you are a reader of this blog, I am looking for stocks that are PROFITABLE along with growing revenue!

I posted Quality Systems (QSII) on Stock Picks on 7/28/03 at a price of $30.67. (I also purchased some shares in my "Trading Account" as well as had my stock club pick up some shares!) QSII closed at $47.92 on 8/13/04 for a gain of $17.25 or 56.2%.

On August 3, 2004, QSII reported 1st quarter 2005 results. Net revenues were $20.1 million, an increase of 23% over the $16.3 million in revenue last year. Net income was $3.4 million, a 49% over net income of $2.3 million last year in the same quarter. Fully diluted earnings per share came in at $.51/share for the quarter, an increase of 46% over the fully diluted $.35/share earnings recorded last year. These were great results and the stock price reflects this!

Community Health Systems (CYH) was posted on Stock Picks on 7/29/03 at a price of $19.79. CYH closed at $23.70 on 8/13/04 for a gain of $3.91 or 20.0%.

On July 21, 2004, CYH announced 2nd quarter 2004 results. Net operating revenues for the quarter ended June 30, 2004, were $813.7 million, a 23.8% increase over the $657.3 million reported in the same quarter last year. Net income jumped 25.6% to $38.4 million or $.37/diluted share, compared to $30.6 million or $.30/diluted share last year. These look like great results to me!

Coventry Health (CVH) was posted on Stock Picks on 7/29/03 at a price of $55.77. CVH split 3:2 in February, 2004, so our effective stock pick price was actually $37.18. CVH closed at $48.87 on 8/13/04 for a gain of $11.69 or 31.4%.

On July 26, 2004, CVH announced 2nd quarter 2004 results. Operating revenues totaled $1.31 billion for the quarter, up 19% over the 2nd quarter 2003. Earnings came in at $84 million or $.93/share (beating Thomson First Call estimates of $.87), compared to last year's $63.4 million or $.70/share on revenue of $1.1 billion.

On July 30, 2003, I posted Guitar Center (GTRC) on Stock Picks at $33.26. GTRC closed at $40.75 on 8/13/04 for a gain of $7.49 or 22.5%.

On July 28, 2004, GTRC announced 2nd quarter 2004 results. Consolidated net sales for the quarter ended June 30, 2004, increased 16.5% to $339.6 million from $291.6 million for the same period last year. Net income for the quarter increased 97.5% to $12.1 million or $.47/diluted share compared with $6.2 million or $.25/diluted share last year. These were indeed great results!

On July 30, 2003, I posted Charles River Laboratories (CRL) on Stock Picks at $35.60. CRL closed at $41.76 on 8/13/04 for a gain of $6.16 or 17.3%.

On July 28, 2004, CRL announced 2nd quarter 2004 results. Second quarter net sales were $180.2 million, a 16.7% increase over the $154.4 million reported in the same period last year. Net income for the quarter increased 27.9% to $26.3 million or $.52/diluted share up from $20.6 million or $.42/diluted share last year. Another great quarter for CRL!







On July 31, 2003, I posted ManTech (MANT) at $24.86. MANT closed at $12.33 on 8/13/04, for a loss of $(12.53) or (50.4)%.

On July 19, 2004, MANT announced it expected a loss for the 2nd quarter. Subsequently, it also delayed the earnings report. The street does NOT like losses and does NOT like uncertainty. The stock has traded lower!

On July 31, 2003, I posted Chico's FAS (CHS) on Stock Picks at $27.22. CHS closed at $39.20 on 8/13/04 for a gain of $11.98 or 44%.

On May 27, 2004, CHS announced 1st quarter 2004 results. Net sales for the quarter ended May 1, 2004, increased 52.0% to $257 million from $169 million for the same quarter last year. Net income was up 52.6% to $36 million, or $.40/share from $23 million or $.27/share last year. Comparable store sales were reported to increase 20.1% for the 13 week period ended May 1, 2004 (in the same earnings report). These were all great numbers, and the stock has appreciated since we listed it last year!

On August 1, 2003, I posted Alliance Data Systems (ADS) on Stock Picks at $28.45. ADS closed at $36.12 for a gain of $7.67 or 27.0%.

On July 21, 2004, ADS announced 2nd quarter 2004 results. For the quarter ended June 30, 2004, revenue increased 20% to $300.5 million from $251.0 million for the second quarter 2003. Net income was up 99% to $28 million or $.33/diluted share for the second quarter compared to $14.1 million or $.18/diluted share the prior year. In addition ADS RAISED GUIDANCE (notice the caps!) for 2004. This is a great earnings report and great guidance for this company! My kind of stock. (unfortunately I don't own any!)

Finally, on August 1, 2003, I posted United Online (UNTD) on Stock Picks at $33.64. UNTD has been one of our WORST performers (!) and closed on 8/13/04 at $9.03/share for a loss of $(24.61) or (73.2)%.

On August 4, 2004, UNTD reported 2nd quarter 2004 results. Total revenues were $110.6 million, up 39% vs. $79.6 million for the same quarter the prior year. Net income came in at $12.3 million or $.19/share compared to $14.6 million or $.21/share the prior year. However, the stock dropped after they also trimmed guidance for subscriber-growth for 2004. I always prefer (!) to see POSITIVE guidance in association with great results!

So how did we do for these ten stock selections? We had gains in seven and losses in three for an average gain of 5.19%. O.K. not so spectacular but not bad for a mediocre market this past year! Remember, I suggest selling all losing stocks at 8% loss levels, so this would actually improve our performance, but for the sake of review, I evaluate as if we had a "buy and hold" strategy!

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com . Wishing all of my friends a GREAT WEEKEND!

Bob


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