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Sunday, 12 September 2004
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of August 18, 2003





Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. Usually, I try to post a review each weekend of what I have written about one year earlier in order to see how the stock picks have performed. Last weekend I was asleep on the job and didn't get to it! O.K. I am only human and I apologize. Did anyone notice? As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor so please do your own investigations before using any information on this website and consult with your professional investment advisors to make sure that any investments discussed are appropriate, timely, and likely to be profitable for you! If you have any comments or questions about this blog, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com .

On August 18, 2003, I posted PolyMedica (PLMD) on Stock Picks at a price of $46.05. PLMD split 2:1 on 9/30/03 making our "pick price" actually $23.03. PLMD closed on 9/10/04 at $30.00 for a gain of $6.97 or 30.3%.

On July 27, 2004, PLMD announced 1st quarter 2005 results. Revenues for the first quarter ended June 30, 2004, came in at $111.1 million, a 12.3% increase compared to the $98.9 million the prior year. Net income was $13.8 million, a 24.1% increase over the $11.1 million the prior year, and diluted earnings/share were $.50 a 13.6% increase compared to the prior year $.44/share. The company also announced they expected net revenues of $114-$118 million and diluted earnings per share of $.50-$.54 for the fiscal 2005 2nd quarter. It looks like PLMD is doing just fine!

Measurement Specialties (MSS) was posted on Stock Picks on August 18, 2003, at a price of $12.31. MSS closed on 9/10/04 at $22.99 for a gain of $10.68 or 86.8%.

On August 4, 2004, MSS announced 1st quarter 2005 results. For the first quarter ended June 30, 2004, net sales increased 7.6% to $28.0 million compared to $26.0 million the prior year. However, income from continuing operations came in at $3.3 million or $.23/diluted share compared with $3.7 million, or $.29/diluted share the prior year. My preference is always to note increasing earnings along with revenue growth, so this is not quite as attractive to me as other news. However, the stock price has done well, and apparently the street is still quite bullish on future prospects.

On August 19, 2003, I picked Dynacq (DYII.PK) at a price of $24.50. This has been a very disappointing selection and the company has been dropped to the "pink sheets" and thus the change in symbol due to apparent accounting questions. DYII.PK closed at $6.35 on 9/10/04, for a loss of $(18.15) or (74.1)%. With all of the accounting problems, it is hard to even sort out the latest quarter results and thus, I will refrain from commenting on that portion of the stock. Clearly, this type of development supports the need for clearly placed loss-limits, which for my trading portfolio, is represented by an 8% loss.

On August 21, 2003, I posted Lifeway Foods (LWAY) at $14.51. LWAY split 2:1 on 3/9/04 so our effective pick price was $7.26. LWAY closed on 9/10/04 at $10.30 for a gain of $3.04 or 41.9%.

On August 16, 2004, LWAY reported 2nd quarter 2004 results. Revenue rose 6% to $4.002 million compared to $3.78 million last year. Net income was $432,109, or $.05/share, compared with $691,082 or $.08/share, a decrease of 38% from the prior year. The decrease was attributed to the temporary spike in milk prices during the quarter, but the street didn't like this result anyhow, and the stock price has pulled back subsequent to this news.

On August 22, 2003, I posted DJ Orthopedics (DJO) on the blog at $10.89. DJO closed on 9/10/04 at $20.97 for a gain of $10.08 or 92.6%.

On July 27, 2004, DJO announced 2nd quarter 2004 results. Net revenues for the quarter ended June 26, 2004, totaled $63.2 million, a 33.2% increase compared with $47.4 million reported the prior year. Net income for the quarter, excluding redemption of some Notes as reported, was $4.7 million, or $.21/share a 75.6% increase from $2.7 million or $.15/share reported the prior year. DJO continued to stand behind optimistic guidance of $260 million for the full 2004 year. This was a nice report!

Finally, on August 22, 2003, I posted Electronics Boutique (ELBO) on Stock Picks at $32.30/share. ELBO closed at $33.27 on 9/10/04 for a gain of $1.07 or 3.3%.

On August 19, 2004, ELBO announced 2nd quarter 2004 results. For the quarter ended July 31, 2004, revenue increased 19.8% to $362.0 million, from $302.1 million the prior year. During the quarter, same-store-sales actually DECLINED 2.2%. Net income increased 132.4% to $3.9 million or $.16/diluted share exceeding previously announced expectations, compared with $1.7 million or $.07/diluted share the prior year.

So what does all of that mean? Well, sales were up apparently by adding outlets since same store sales actually dipped. However, the earnings picture improved dramatically, so the report appears to be a wash. I would resist recommending any retail stock to anyone which had declining same store sales like this stock!

So how have we done this past year? Of these six stocks, five had gains, ranging from 3.3% for ELBO to 92.6% for DJ Orthopedics. Unfortunately, we had a weak performer in Dynacq (DYII.PK) which lost (74.1)% of its value. Even with Dynacq, the average GAIN was 30.1%, an outstanding performance for that particular week a little more than a year later!

Thanks again for stopping by! Please excuse the lack of organization in all of these posts, but by browsing through the dates on the left, you can review all of my past posts. Again, remember I am an amateur investor so get professional advice before making decisions based on what I write, and please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com as I love to hear from readers with their comments and questions! Have a great week everyone!

Bob














Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:19 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Monday, 13 September 2004 1:07 PM CDT

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