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Thursday, 7 October 2004
October 7, 2004 Parlux Fragrances (PARL)

Hello Friends! I felt like I needed to liven up the website...so here it is a portrait of Christopher Columbus to commemorate the upcoming Columbus Day Holiday on October 12th. Hard to believe that it has been 500 years since Columbus "discovered" America. Seems like yesterday!

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. I have provided a link because some of you may well be reading this post on a third party site and might wish to stop by and visit the original! As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please do your own investigation of all stocks discussed on this website and consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions to make sure that all investments are appropriate, timely, and likely to be profitable for you! Remember, I love to hear from all of you, so if you have any questions, comments or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com .

As a quick review for any of you that are new to this blog, I like to present stocks for "consideration". Stocks that I believe may represent companies that have demonstrated qualities that could result in positive price appreciation.

In a nutshell, I start my search scanning the lists of top % gainers in the market. From this list, lately, I try to stay with stocks at least $10. I have avoided financial issues because my methodology does not conform well to these types of investments. Otherwise, I check most of the stocks on the list looking first to the latest quarterly result, looking for increasing revenue and earnings; then the last several years on Morningstar.com, again looking at revenue and earnings, but also free cash flow, dividend growth, and the balance sheet; then checking Yahoo.com for a look at valuation, and finally, a quick inspection of a point & figure chart from Stockcharts.com.

Today, while looking through the lists of top percentage gainers I came across Parlux Fragrances (PARL). I do not have any shares or options in this investment. PARL, as I write, is trading at $14.95, up $.98 or 7.02% on the day. According to the Yahoo "Profile", PARL "...is engaged in the creation, design and manufacture, distribution and sale of prestige fragrances and beauty-related products marketed primarily through specialty stores, national department stores and perfumeries on a worldwide basis."

On August 5, 2004, PARL reported 1st quarter 2005 results. For the quarter ended June 30, 2004, net sales increased to $23.0 million from $16.9 million last year. Net income was up 200% to $2.2 million compared with $.7 million last year. On a per share fully diluted basis this came in at $.21/share vs. $.08/share in the prior year.

How about longer-term? Checking the "5-Yr Restated" financials on Morningstar.com, we can see a steady revenue growth from $66 million in 2000 to $87 million in the trailing twelve months (TTM). Earnings have been less steady, dropping to a loss of $(.57)/share in 2002, but increasing since then to $.76/share in the trailing twelve months.

Free cash flow has also been improving. Again, a negative $(6) million in 2002, but improving to $13 million in the TTM.

Balance-sheet-wise, they appear quite solvent with $7.6 million in cash and $60.4 million in other current assets balanced against $13.1 million in current liabilities and only $1.6 million in long-term liabilities.

How about "valuation"? Looking at Yahoo "Key Statistics", we can see that this is a very SMALL cap stock, some might even say MICRO cap!, with a market cap of only $137.70 million. The trailing p/e is reasonable at 20.21. No forward p/e (? any analysts making estimates?), and thus, no PEG. Price/sales isn't bad at 1.46.

There are only 9.06 million shares outstanding with 7.80 million that float. Currently there are 215,000 shares out short, representing 2.76% of the float or 5.375 trading days of volume. This is a bit higher than my 3 day short coverage ratio that I use to consider a significant short position.

No cash dividend is reported and the last stock split was a 2:1 reported by Yahoo for November, 1995.

How about "technicals"? Looking at a point & figure chart from Stockcharts.com:



we can see that the stock, which was trading sideways between early 1999 and late 2002, in the range of $1.25 to $4.75, broke through resistance in September, 2003, at about $3.50, and has traded strongly higher since that time. The chart looks nice to me!

So what do I think? This is a very small stock and may represent opportunity, or volatility. The latest quarter looks solid, the five year record of increasing revenue is great. Earnings have been on the rise the last few years, free cash flow is improving, the balance sheet is nice, and valuation is reasonable. Furthermore, the chart looks strong to me!

But as you may know, I just SOLD my ANN to preserve my gain, and I cannot buy anything until the market signals me that the "coast is clear" by a sale of one of my holdings at a gain. That is why my latest transactions have been sales!

Thanks so much for stopping by! Always remember that I am an amateur investor so please consult with your invesment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website. Again, if you have any questions or comments, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com .

Bob


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