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Sunday, 7 November 2004
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of September 22, 2003





Hello Friends! We have had a tumultuous week here in the States and I think I am having an electoral "hangover"! In any case, we had quite a rally the last few days and fortunately our stocks participated! In fact, I was able to sell a portion of one of my stocks (AMHC) at a gain, which gave me a "buy signal" in my trading system, and added a position (CDIS) to my "Trading Portfolio". Again, thanks for visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice, but I always like to remind all of you that I am an amateur investor, so please consult with your professional investment advisors before making any investment decisions based on information here, to make sure that your decisions are appropriate, timely, and likely to be profitable for you!

I like to use the weekend, when I can find the time (!) to write up a short review of stock picks from the previous year. I do this a week at a time on a sort of rolling basis, currently I am up to the week of September 22, 2003.

The first pick that week was TBC Corp (TBCC) which was posted on Stock Picks on September 22, 2003, at a price of $24.13. TBCC, and I had to check this a couple of times (LOL), closed on 11/5/04 at $24.13, for a 0% change (!). I think THAT is a first on this blog, closing a year or so later at the exact price (!).

On 10/25/04, TBCC reported 3rd quarter 2004 results. Net sales climbed 31.5% to $476.5 million over the prior year. Due to hurricane effects (?), same store sales decreased 1.7% during the quarter. Net income was up 9.0% to $10.9 million, or $.47/share, compared with $10.0 million or $.44/share the prior year. Overall, not a terrible report!

On September 22, 2003, I posted Bio-Reference Labs (BRLI) on Stock Picks at $11.63. BRLI closed at $14.20 on 11/5/04 for a gain of $2.57 or 22.1% over the past year.

On September 9, 2004, BRLI announced 3rd quarter 2004 results. Revenues came in at $35.8 million, a 24% increase over prior year revenues. Net income was $2.3 million or $.18/share, unchanged from the prior year. This was an o.k. result as I would much prefer to see strong earnings going along with the strong revenue growth!

On 9/24/03, I picked Multimedia Games (MGAM) for this blog at a price of $34.30. MGAM split 2:1 on 3/1/04, and thus our effective selection price was $17.15. MGAM closed on 11/5/04 at a price of $13.87 for a loss of $(3.28) or (19.1)%.

On October 14, 2004, MGAM announced warnings about the 4th quarter and 2004 results. They loweed guidance for the fourth-quarter and fiscal-year earnings due to "...lower-than-projected contributions from the sale of player terminals." This was NOT good news and the stock price responded accordingly.

America's Car-Mart (CRMT) was selected for Stock Picks on 9/24/03 at a price of $29.61. CRMT closed at $34.81 on 11/5/04 for a gain of $5.20 or 17.6%.

On 9/9/04, this Bentonville, Arkansas-based company (same as Wal-Mart...a coincidence?), announced 1st quarter results. For the quarter ended July 31, 2004, revenues increased 17% to $50.8 million over the $43.3 million the prior year. Income increased 13% to $4.9 million or $.62/share vs. $4.4 million or $.55/share the prior year same quarter. The company also raised 2005 guidance, a bullish development!

On September 25, 2003, I Posted Cree, Inc. (CREE) on Stock Picks at a price of $22.16. CREE closed at $35.28 on 11/5/04 for a gain of $13.12 or 59.2%.

On October 14, 2004, CREE reported 1st quarter 2005 results. Revenue for the three months ended 9/26/04, came in at $95.9 million a 45% increase over the prior year's $66.2 million. Net income came in at $24.4 million or $.32/share compared with $8.9 million or $.12/share the prior year. This was a GREAT result, and the stock price responded accordingly!

On 9/25/03, I posted WD-40 (WDFC) on Stock Picks at a price of $31.20. WDFC closed at $28.64 on 11/5/04 for a loss of $(2.56) or (8.2)%.

On 10/27/04, WDFC announced 4th quarter 2004 results. Revenue for the period ended August 31, 2004, dropped 2.3% to $71.7 milion from $73.4 million. Quarterly earnings fell to $8.9 million or $.53/share from $10.3 million or $.61/share the prior year. Even though analysts (First Call) were looking for a decrease to $.55/share, WDFC underperformed even THAT weaker estimate. This is not my kind of earnings report!

On September 26, 2003, I posted Research in Motion (RIMM) on stock picks at a price of $38.24. On June 7, 2004, RIMM had a 2:1 split making my effective pick price $19.12. RIMM closed at $77.75 on 11/5/04, for a gain of $58.63 (!!!), or 306.6%. (Too bad I didn't buy any shares).

On September 30, 2004, RIMM announced 2nd quarter 2005 results. Revenue came in at $310.2 million, up 147% from $125.7 million the prior year and up 15% sequentially from the prior quarter. Net income came in strong at $70.6 million or $.36/share, up sequentially and up from $2.1 million or $.01/share the prior year! This was a great quarter.

And on September 26, 2003, I posted Abaxis (ABAX) on Stock Picks at a price of $13.40. ABAX closed at $12.40 on 11/5/04 for a loss of $(1.00) or (7.5)% since posting.

On October 18, 2004, ABAX announced 2nd quarter 2005 results. Quarterly revenue came in at $13.6 million, up 18% over the prior year. Earnings per share came in at $.06, up 20% from $.05/share the prior year. These were good results (imho), and the stock has held its price fairly well.

On September 26, 2003, I posted Cherokee (CHKE) on Stock Picks at a price of $20.90. CHKE closed at $29.00 on 11/5/04 for a gain of $8.10 or 38.8%.

On 9/8/04, CHKE announced 2nd quarter earnings results. Revenue was up 3% to $10.2 million, from $9.9 million last year. Net income was up 16% to $4.3 million or $.50/share compared with $3.7 million or $.43/share the prior year. Nice results but not spectacular imho. What the street also liked was that Cherokee, on 10/21/04, announced an increase in the dividend, a 19% increase to $.50/share. Who says dividends don't matter?

So how did we do for these nine stocks since they were "picked" during the week of September 22, 2003. Needless to say, the one SPECTACULAR pick of RIMM will pull up the averages! Including RIMM, the nine stocks had an average gain of 45.5% over the past year! Of course, this shows how one spectacular or miserably performing stock can sway the averages! Also, this assumes a "buy and hold" approach for investing, and I personally use an 8% stop loss approach, and sell portions of my stocks at gain targets. But this is probably informative to look back and see what would have happened if we HAD just bought and held on!

Thanks again for stopping by! Please always do your own investigatin of all stocks discussed as I am an amateur investor. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com! Have a great weekend!

Bob




Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:16 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Sunday, 7 November 2004 11:18 AM CST

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