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Saturday, 13 November 2004
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of September 29, 2003






Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. What I try to do in my own amateur way on this website, is to identify stocks that I believe show potential for price appreciation. Since I am an amateur, and NOT a professional, please use your professional advisors to determine if any stock ideas here are appropriate, timely, and likely to be profitable for you! I have been running this blog for about a year and a half, and it is my belief, if we can review past picks, we can find out about what worked and what did not. In any case, please feel free to drop me a line at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com and let me know what you think about the blog, how you use it in your own investment thinking, and any other comments or questions! Thanks again for stopping by.

On September 29, 2003, I posted SFBC International (SFCC) on Stock Picks at a price of $30.25. SFCC split 3:2 on May 20, 2004, making our effective pick price actually $20.17. SFCC closed on 11/12/04 at $36.22, for a gain of $16.05 or 79.6%.

How about the latest earnings? On October 27, 2004, SFCC announced 3rd quarter 2004 results. Revenue for the third quarter 2004 ended September 30, 2004, came in at $40.4 million up 38.8% from $29.1 million for the same quarter in 2003. Net earnings for the quarter increased 53.9% to $5.3 million compared with $3.4 million for the same quarter in 2003. Earnings per fully diluted share came in at $.34 in the quarter compared with $.28 in 2003, a 20.9% increase. More recently, on 11/3/04, SFCC raised 2004 guidance from $147-$155 million in revenue to $150-$157 in revenue, and earnings of $1.16-$1.23/share up to $1.20-$1.25/share. Great earnings and raised guidance are my two favorite things to see on a stock!

I posted Ann Taylor Stores (ANN) on Stock Picks on 9/30/03 at a price of $32.14. ANN split 3:2 on May 27, 2004, making our effective pick price actually $21.43. ANN closed at $23.35 on 11/12/04 for a gain of $1.92 or 9.0%.

On November 10, 2004, ANN announced 3rd quarter 2004 results. Sales increased 16% to $460.4 million from $396.8 million a year ago. Same store sales grew an anemic 1.4%. However, third quarter earnings dropped 53% to $14.2 million or $.20/share compared with $30.3 million or $.42/share a year ago. This is NOT the kind of results I look for on this blog, I actually owned and sold ANN in my current trading portfolio, and do not currently own any shares.

Now here is a stock that I wrote up on this blog and NEVER bought a share! On 10/1/03, I posted TASER Int'l (TASR) on Stock Picks at a price of $29.25. TASR split 3:1 2/11/04, and then 2:1 4/30/04. After the first split, our effective price was $9.75/share. However, after the SECOND split, the adjusted cost works out to $4.88/share. TASR closed at $57.50/share on 11/12/04 for a gain of, drum roll please......$52.62 or 1,078%. YIKES and I never bought a share :(.

And what about earnings? On October 19, 2004, TASR reported 3rd quarter 2004 results and also raised guidance for the rest of 2004. Revenues for the quarter came in at $18.9 million, up 211% from revenues in the same quarter in 2003. Earnings were $6.1 million or $.21/basic share. Net income was up 469% over the prior year and up 36% over the previous quarter. On a diluted basis, net income came in at $.19/share this quarter up from $.04/share the prior year same quarter. This was a great result, and TASR recently, on 11/4/04, announced a 2:1 split, the third split this year!

On 10/2/03, I posted UTStarcom (UTSI) on Stock Picks at $35.23/share. UTSI closed at $18.68 for a loss of $(16.55)/share or (47.0)%.

On October 26, 2004, UTSI announced 3rd quarter 2004 results. The company reported a 10% rise in sales to $645 million from $584.4 million last year. However, earnings plummeted to $5 million down 90% from $59.1 million or $.04/share down from $.46/share last year. Even though the company forecast robust growth into 2005, the current results and the lackluster results anticipated in the next quarter held back the stock price!

On October 3, 2003, I posted Bentley Pharmaceuticals (BNT) on Stock Picks at $15.69/share. BNT closed at $8.80/share on 11/12/04, for a loss of $(6.89) or (43.9)%.

On 11/3/04, BNT announced 3rd quarter 2004 results. Adjusted for currency fluctuations, sales rose 12.4% to $18.1 million in the quarter. Net income for the quarter came in at $1.4 million or $.06/diluted share compared with $1.3 million or $.06/share last year. (Diluted shares increased 2.3% to $22.7 million). This result was clearly not adequate to move the stock price higher!

Finally, on October 3, 2003, I posted Genesis Microchip (GNSS)on Stock Picks at $13.28. GNSS closed at $16.96 on 11/12/04 for a gain of $3.68 or 27.7%.

On 10/25/04, GNSS announced 2nd quarter 2005 results. For the quarter, total revenues DECREASED to $50.1 million compared with $52.8 million last year. And the company had a net LOSS of $(.3) million or $(.01)/share, an improvement sequentially, and also an improvement from the loss of $(.12)/share last year. The stock price has performed adequately, but these are not the kind of growing profits I would prefer to see in a stock on this blog!

So how did we do? Well because of the AMAZING performance of TASR, our results were fabulous! For these six stocks, we had an average gain of 183.9% !!!. Now THAT is something we probably will NEVER see looking back one year, but it was fun to post!

Thanks again for stopping by! Please remember that past performance is NEVER a guarantee for future performance, that I am an AMATEUR, and that you should consult with professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website!

If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com .

Have a great weekend everyone!

Bob


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