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Saturday, 1 January 2005
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of November 10, 2003






Hello Friends! Happy New Year! It is hard to celebrate here in the States knowing that so many people in Southeast Asia are suffering from the effects of the terrible tsunami. Please support relief work and keep all of the victims and their friends and families in your prayers.

Thanks so much for stopping by my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please consult with your professional investment advisors to make sure that all investments discussed here are appropriate, timely, and likely to be profitable for you. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com .

It is a weekend and that means that one of my jobs is to look back a year and see how stocks that were mentioned on this blog have performed. These stocks are not stocks that I have necessarily or even likely purchased. I purchase a tiny minority of the stocks I discuss here. And I try very hard to let you know when and which stocks I do own or buy! This discussion presumes a buy and hold strategy. In reality, I have been utilizing a very different strategy: I sell my stocks quickly at 8% losses after a purchase, and then sell slowly on gains. I also have a bit of a trailing stop; that is, if stocks gain and I sell a portion or two....well, I do not wait until I have an 8% loss to sell the remaining shares then!

On November 10, 2003, I posted CollaGenex Pharmaceuticals (CGPI) on Stock Picks at a price of $10.45. CGPI closed at $7.34 on 12/31/04 for a loss of $(3.11) or (30.0)%.

On October 26, 2004, CGPI announced 3rd quarter 2004 results. Total revenues were $11.1 million compared to $13.9 million in the prior year same quarter. Net income for the quarter was $1.1 million down from $1.2 million the prior year or $.05/diluted share vs. $.06/diluted share in 2003. The decline in financial results appears associated with the poor stock performance!

I posted Coinstar (CSTR) on Stock Picks at $17.18. CSTR closed at $26.83 on 12/31/04, for a gain of $9.65 or 56.2%.

On October 26, 2004, CSTR announced 3rd quarter 2004 results: revenue came in for the three months ended September 30, 2004, at $106.4 million up strongly from $48.7 million the prior year. However, on a fully-diluted basis, earnings per share came in at $.30/share down from $.32/share last year. Kind of a mixed-result!

On November 11, 2003, I posted Fossil (FOSL) on Stock Picks at $28.42/share. FOSL split 3:2 on 4/12/04 for a net pick price of $18.95. FOSL closed at $25.64 on 12/31/04 for a gain of $6.69 or 35.3%.

On November 9, 2004, FOSL reported 3rd quarter 2004 results. Net sales were up 22.5% to $236.1 million compared to $192.6 million in the same quarter in 2003. Net income jumped 39.1% to $23.4 million compared with $16.8 million, or on a diluted earnings per share basis came in at $.31, up 34.8% from $.23 in 2003. Great results!

On November 13, 2003, I posted Whole Foods Market (WFMI) on Stock Picks at $64.68/share. WFMI closed at $95.35/share, a gain of $30.67/share or 47.4%.

On November 10, 2004, WFMI reported 4th quarter 2004 results. Same store sales growth for the quarter came in at 14.0% (!). Overall sales grew 24% to $927.3 million, net income increased 27% to $30.2 million and diluted earnings per share jumped 21% to $.46. This was a great quarter!

On November 13, 2003, I posted Medtronic (MDT) on Stock Picks at a price of $46.39. MDT closed at $49.67 on 12/31/04 for a gain of $3.28 or 7.1%.

On November 17, 2004, MDT reported 2nd quarter 2005 results. Revenues for the quarter were $2.4 billion, an increase of 11% over the prior year's $2.164 billion in revenue. Net earnings were $535.7 million, or $.44/diluted share, a 13% increase over the $476.1 million or $.39/diluted share the prior year.

The last stock pick that week was Medical Technology Systems (MPP), which is now known as MTS Medications Inc., at a price of $6.00. MPP closed at $7.37 on 12/31/04 for a gain of $1.37 or 22.8%.

On November 10, 2004, MPP announced 2nd quarter results. For the quarter ended September 30, 2004, sales increased 28% to $10.2 million from $8.0 million the prior year. Unfortunately, there are a lot of non-recurring expenses, and "pro forma" results are available: pro forma net income came in at $629,000 up 65% from $381,000 the prior year. Pro forma diluted eps jumped 67% to $.10 from $.06 the prior year. The company does explain the pro forma points, including early repayment of subordinated debt, relocation of the company's operations, and charges associated with a restricted stock grant. Apparently the "street" was satisfied with these results!

So overall, how DID we do for the stock picks that week? I had one loser (CGPI), and the other five were gains with an average overall gain of 23.1%. Not too shabby a way to start out the new year! Thanks so much again for stopping by! Please consult with your professional investment advisor. Realize that past performance is NO guarantee of future performance! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to contact me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com .

Have a Healthy, Happy, Safe, and Profitable 2005!

Bob


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