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Saturday, 5 February 2005
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of December 15, 2003





Hello Friends! Thank you for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any decisions based on information on this website.

Each weekend, as much as possible, I like to look back about a year just as you can do on the blog, by clicking on the date links along the left side of the posts. I like to review my past picks a week at a time with about a one year trailing time period. Some weeks we look brilliant, and some just are awful!

Please remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. That this review assumes a "buy and hold" strategy which is not what I suggest here...that is I believe in selling losers quickly on an 8% loss (or other sell points), and gainers slowly. This definitely affects portfolio performance.

On December 16, 2003, I posted iPass (IPAS) on Stock Picks at $16.47. IPAS closed at $6.41 on 2/4/05 for a loss of $(10.06) or (61.1)%. Certainly not a very exciting performance.

On October 26, 2004, IPAS announced 3rd quarter 2004 results. Revenues for the quarter ended September 30, 2004, came in at $41.9 million, compared with $35.0 million for the same quarter the prior year. Net income (GAAP), came in at $5.2 million or $.08/diluted share up from $4.5 million or $.07/diluted share the prior year. (the "thumbs-up" or "down" just are my way of pointing out whether revenue and earnings are both positive or not...)

On December 16, 2003, I posted Advanced Digital Information (ADIC) on Stock Picks at a price of $13.96. ADIC closed at $11.035 on 2/4/05 for a loss of $(2.925) or (21)%.

On December 9, 2004, ADIC reported 4th quarter 2004 results. Net sales dropped 2% to $115.4 million from $118 million in the quarter ended October 31, 2004. Net income was also down at $4.91 million from $5.8 million. On a per share basis this came in at $.07/diluted share down from $.09/diluted share the prior year.

On December 17, 2003, I posted Digene (DIGE) on Stock Picks at a price of $37.99. DIGE closed at $26.35 on 2/4/05, for a loss of $(11.64) or (30.6)%.

On February 2, 2005, DIGE announced 2nd quarter 2005 results. Revenue for the quarter increased 28% to $27 million from $21.1 million the prior year. Net income, however, dropped to $.3 million or $.01/diluted share, down from $.9 million or $.05/diluted share the prior year.

Finally, on December 17, 2003, I at a price of $17.889. OVRL closed at $14.81 on 2/4/05 for a loss of $(3.08) or (17.2)%.

On 2/3/04, OVRL reported 2nd quarter 2005 results. Revenue for the quarter came in at $62.5 million, down from $67.8 million last year. Net income came in at $2.6 million down from $3.5 millin last year, or $.18/diluted share down from $.24/diluted share last year.

Needless to say, THAT was a lousy week on Stock Picks! I don't recall a week where EVERY SINGLE PICK was down a year later! What was the final performance result? I was afraid you would ask....for the four stocks, the average LOSS was a significant (33.73)%. Yikes. Weeks like that really make me feel quite humble. And remind me of the importance of those 8% stops to limit losses on all purchases!

Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or especially (after THAT review) words of encouragement, please feel free to leave them right here on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob



Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 12:02 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink

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