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Sunday, 20 February 2005
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of December 29, 2003





Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor so please always consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

At the right is a beautiful picture of Yosemite.

My blog includes lots of ideas about stocks. I believe that among these, are potential outstanding performers. In my actual Trading Portfolio, I use pre-set sell-points to prevent the development of significant losses (by selling at an 8% loss), and to prevent failing to take gains (by selling portions at 30, 60, 90, 120, 180, 240% gains...). But for this weekend review, I just assume a "buy and hold" strategy, and see what would have happened if I had purchased equal dollar amounts of all of the stock picks that week and had simply 'held on'.

On December 29, 2003, I selected Matrixx (MTXX) for Stock Picks at a price of $18.28. MTXX closed at $12.39 on 2/18/05 for a loss of $(5.89) or (32.2)% since posting.

On February 9, 2005, MTXX announced 4th quarter 2004 results. For the quarter ended December 31, 2004, net sales came in at $27.0 million, a 48% increase above net sales of $18.2 million the prior year. Net income increased 62% to $1.7 million or $.17/share compared to net income of $1.0 million or $.11/share the prior year.

I selected American Vanguard (AVD) for Stock Picks on 12/29/03 at a price of $38.69. AVD split 3:2 on 4/19/04 for a resultant effective pick price of $25.79. AVD closed at $36.50 on 2/18/05 for a gain of $10.71 or 41.5%.

On November 3, 2004, AVD reported 3rd quarter results. For the quarter ended September 30, 2004, net sales rose 20% to $39.6 million, net income was up 42% to $4.0 million. On a diluted per share basis, this was a 40% increase to $.42/share. All of these numbers were strong!

On December 30, 2003, I posted Secure Computing (SCUR) on Stock Picks at a price of $16.78. SCUR closed at $9.25 on 2/18/05 for a loss of $(7.53) or (44.9)%.

On January 27, 2005, SCUR announced 4th quarter 2004 results. Sales were up 11% to $25.5 million from $22.9 million last year. Quarterly income grew to $4.5 million or $.12/share from $4.1 million or $.11/share last year. This was slightly above consensus.

On December 30, 2003, I posted SurModics (SRDX) on Stock Picks at a price of $24.38. SRDX closed at $31.51 on 2/18/05 for a gain of $7.13 or 29.2%.

On January 26, 2005, SRDX reported 1st quarter 2005 results. Revenues for the first quarter ended December 31, 2004, grew 16% to $14.1 million from $12.1 million in the prior year. Net income jumped 38% to $5.7 million from $4.1 million. On a diluted per share basis, this came out to $.32/share up from $.23/share in fiscal year 2004.

Finally, on January 1, 2004, I posted McKesson Corp (MCK) on Stock Picks at a price of $32.16. MCK closed at $36.77 on 2/18/05 for a gain of $4.61 or 14.3%.

On January 27, 2005, MCK reported 3rd quarter 2005 results. Revenue grew 14% to $20.8 billion. Net loss came in at $(665) million or $(2.26)/share including a charge of $810 million after-tax for securities litigation. Excluding that charge, earnings actually grew 20% to $.49 or $145 million. The street wasn't bothered much by that one time charge and the stock price has held up fine!

So how did we do? I had five picks that week a little over a year ago. Three gained and two lost ground for an average gain of 1.58%.

Thanks again for stopping by! I hope that my review of different stocks is helpful to you in understanding my thinking! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com or leave a message right here on my blog!

Bob






Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 6:44 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Sunday, 20 February 2005 10:36 PM CST

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