Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Sunday, 22 June 2003
June 21, 2003 How are we doing #2...
Since there aren't any markets open today, this is a nice time to review some of our past picks. Last weekend we looked at our first week of picks...Starting May 12th. Let's look at the following week:
Picks that week included Bradley Pharmaceuticals which on 5/19 was trading at $15.77. Currently, as of June 20, 2003, BDY closed at $17.00. This is a $1.23 increase or a 7.79% increase in a month.
On 5/20/03, we chose Home Depot (HD) for our list. At that time HD was trading at $31.10. Currently, at the close on 6/20/03, HD closed at $32.49, an increase of $1.39 or a 4.47% increase.
On 5/21/03, Synovis Life Technology was selected. SYNO was trading at $14.39 at that time and now one month later, on 6/20/03, is trading at $19.28 at the close or an increase of $4.89 or a 33.9% increase in the month!
Enzo Biochem (ENZ) was picked on 5/22 when it was trading at $20.40. Currently as of 6/20/03, ENZ closed at $23.70 an increase of $3.30 or a 16.2% increase in the month.
May 22nd found us selecting Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS). This sporting goods firm which recently came public was trading at $29.75 on 5/22/03. Currently, as of 6/20/03, DKS closed at $33.26. This was a $3.51 increase or an 11.8% increase on the month.
New Century Finance, NCEN, was trading at $47.02 when it was selected for our list on 5/22/03. Currently, as of 6/20/03, NCEN closed at $44.21 or a drop of $2.81 or a drop of 6.0%.
NVR is our most expensive stock on this list trading at $394.86 on 5/23/03 the date we sellected it. Currently, as of 6/20/03 NVR is at $406.50 a gain of $11.64 or a gain of 2.94%.
RRGB or Red Robin Gourmet Burger was at $17.00 when it was selected on 5/23/03. Currently, as of 6/20/03, RRGB closed at $18.93 or an increase of $1.93 or an increase of 11.4%.
Except for NCEN the rest of the stocks that we have held a month have performed nicely. Certainly, a lot of this has to do with the strong market, but at lease we can say that with this system we are participating with the rally.
Have a great rest of the weekend!
Again, feel free to email me at firstname.lastname@example.org with any of your questions, comments, or words of encouragement!
Saturday, 21 June 2003
June 21, 2003 Blog problems
If you are having problems getting to the older entries on the Blog...I did today....just use the Calendar along the left side of the page and click on last weeks date to get to those entries...works better than the "newer" and "older" tabs on the bottom. I hope Lycos gets this fixed soon :). Bob
Friday, 20 June 2003
June 20, 2003 Forest Laboratories (FRX)
This market is both overbought and incredibly strong. Even after the big run-up we have in the Dow, the market has gone down only yesterday and is having a difficult time letting the Bears have their way today as the Bulls are struggling to push the market right back up.
O.k. so I am better at picking stocks than market commentary? Well there is no harm trying to expand on my observations is there?
Back to business. Forest Laboratories is having a great day. No this is not some kind of wood pulp business (lol), they are another drug firm. In fact per cnn.money, FRX "develops, manufactures and sells both branded and generic forms of ethical drug products which require a physicians prescription, as well as non-prescription pharmaceutical products sold over-the-counter."
FRX is trading at $54.99 up $1.70 or 3.19% on the day. The company trades at a trailing p/e of 33.13 and has a market cap of $20.0 Billion. Not exactly a microcap stock? They do not pay a dividend.
On April 22, 2003, per the NYTimes on the web, Forest reported their earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter ending March 31, 2003. Net sales increased 42% to $621,114,000 from $436,751,000 in the prior year. Net income increased 87% (!!) to $180,737,000 from $96,553,000 for the prior year. Diluted earnings per share equaled $.48 in the current quarter as compared to $.26 in last year's fourth quarter. These are GREAT numbers, especially for a company the size of FRX.
Morningstar.com shows an equally ATTRACTIVE picture for the past 5 years: revenue was $0.5 billion in 1998, $0.6 billion in 1999, $0.9 billion in 2000, $1.2 billion in 2001, $1.6 billion in 2002, and extrapolating from the latest quarter, we get $2.4 billion at least in 2003. Very nice!
The company is also generating an equally large pile of cash: free cash flow of $161 million in 2000, $149 million in 2001, $390 million in 2002 and $560 million for the trailing twelve months. Not too shabby huh?
On TOP of this, this BEAUTIFUL company has LOADS of cash. Get this: $1.32 BILLION in cash compared to $454.7 million in current liabilities and only $1.9 million in long term debt. In addition they have $693.9 million in OTHER current assets. Boy, they are LOADED. They ought to be paying a dividend any time soon!
I don't own a share of this stock. But if I can find the cash, would LOVE to own a bushel of shares of this one. Take a look at the graphs and numbers yourself and unless I am missing something....sure is pretty!
Drop me a line at email@example.com and I will try to reply ASAP. Be sure to let me know if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement...and above all....come on back! and tell your friends!
Have a GREAT weekend everyone! Bob
Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 2:06 PM CDT
Updated: Friday, 20 June 2003 2:07 PM CDT
June 20, 2003 Laboratory Corporation of America (LH)
After yesterday, who needs a correction? You know it is good for you like a foul tasting medicine...but would rather have something a bit sweeter on the tastebuds....
Didn's see much today earlier....JCOM and MRN, and AHS are showing up. MED almost meets our criteria...but not perfect....but LH looks like a pretty nice fit. I feel like Goldilocks checking the porridge...not too hot...not too cold....JUST RIGHT!
Laboratory Corporation of America is having a nice day today...trading at $30.68 up $.92 or 3.09% on the day.
Per CNN.Money, LH is "an independent clinical laboratory company, offers a broad range of testing services used by the medical profession in the diagnosis, monitoring and treatment of diseases and other clinical states."
Last quarter was reported on April 28, 2003, and they announced that revenues, per the NYTimes on the Web, were $712.2 million and increase of 20.7% from the same period in 2002. Net income for the quarter increased to $73.9 million or $.51/share compared to $65.8 million or $.46/share in 2002.
Morningstar shows a slow but steady increase in revenue from $1.6 billion in 1998, $1.7 billion in 1999, $1.9 billion in 2000, $2.2 billion in 2001, $2.5 billion in 2002, and extrapolating from the latest quarter, we would get about $2.8 billion in 2003.
Free cash flow has been improving the last few years with a positive $191 million in 2000, $228 million in 2001, and $371 million in 2002.
Assets and liabilities are a fairly well-balanced with $56.4 million in cash and $540 million in other current assets compared to $228.8 million in current liabilities and $771.3 million in long-term liabilities. With the excellent free cash flow, imho, this shouldn't be a problem.
There are 148 million shares outstanding with a $4.6 Billion market cap. The p/e is a reasonable 16.90.
This company looks nice and steady to me. I don't own any shares but would be happy to add some if the opportunity arose. You might want to take a second look at LH.
Please drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement!
Regards to all of my friends and readers.
Thursday, 19 June 2003
June 19, 2003 J2Communications (JCOM)
Hello friends. Am showing Matt, a friend of mine how this site works....interesting enough JCOM showed up today. Nice price move and it has the fundamentals behind it. JCOM was about our second pick on this site. Unfortunately I don't own a share! Bob
Wednesday, 18 June 2003
June 18, 2003 Tofutti Brands, Inc. (TOF)
O.K. so it was a SMALL correction. Down down 29 but NASDAQ up 8.76. After the HUGE run up in this rally, this is evidence of the incredible buying pressure at this time supporting this position.
Anyway, anyone have a sweet tooth for a stock? And one under $10 also!
Tofutti Brands, Inc., "develops, produces and markets non-dairy frozen desserts and other soy-based, non-dairy foods, containing no butterfat, cholesterol or lactose, yet offering the same textures and tastes as their dairy counterparts" per CNN.Money.
TOF had a very nice day. Anyone who owns some shares can reward themselves with a bowl of this soy dessert....TOF closed at $2.82 up $.22 or 8.46%.
A real inexpensive stock, and difficult to buy if you keep the 8% stop. You can see if it DROPS 1/4 point, you have hit it!
On May 13, 2003, per the NYTimes on the Web, TOF reported results: Net sales increased 22% to $4.5 million compared with net sales of $3.7 million for the thirteen weeks ended March 30, 2002. Operating income increased slightly to $458,000 from $418,000 for the comparable period in 2002.
Morningstar.com shows the past 5 years of revenue growth from $7 million in 1997, to $9 million in 1998, $12 million in 1999, $13 million in 2000, $16 million in 2001, and $17 million in the trailing twelve months. Small numbers but steady growth.
Cash flow is not recorded unfortunately, but the company has $2.7 million in cash on hand per Morningstar with $2.7 million of other current assets...with only $0.5 million of current liabilities and no long term debt.
Market cap is a tiny $14.9 Million with only 4.72 million shares outstanding, and 3.90 million of them floating.
O.K. it is not a typical presentation here, but if you would like an inexpensive stock which basically meets our criteria so you can buy LOTS of shares....well have a scoop of Tofutti!
Regards to all my friends. Bob
For transparency, I sold 50 of EXAC, and 100 of AAII, and bought 800 of LIFC. I knew I had no self-control! Regards to ALL. Bob
June 18, 2003 LifeCell Corporation (LIFC)
O.K. so I don't have much time to get this post up. I actually HAVE a job and need to get back to work but this one looks SO goood to me and I am thinking of buying some. Have you EVER met a guy who cannot meet a stock he doesn't like?
Anyhow, came across this one on the most active this morning. I do not own any shares and USUALLY avoid the under $10 stocks because most aren't very financially solid. We did do well with EELN and I am open to checking....
LifeCell, according to Cnn.money, "is a bioengineering company engaged in the development and commercialization of tissue regeneration and cell preservation products." So if you don't have a biology/biochem background that is probably all Greek to you!
On April 24, 2003, per NYTimes on the Web, LifeCell Corporation reported their financial results for the first quarter ending March 31, 2003. They were solid: (although small), revenues were up 17% to $8.6 million and income was up 94% to $364,000 from $188,000 the prior year.
Morningstar.com picture is equally SWEET. Revenue growth has increased from $6.0 million in 1997, to $8.0 million in 1998, $12.7 million in 1999, $22.8 million, $27.8 million in 2001, and $34 million in 2002.
This little company is cash flow positive in 2002 from negative $2 million and negative $13 million in 2001 and 2000 respectively. Did that backward explanation confuse you? Anyhow they are improving their generation of cash.
They have $5.5 million in cash and $11.0 million in other current assets, compared to $4.9 million in current liabilities and only $1.0 million in long term debt. This is a BEAUTIFUL little company.
I don't own any shares....but I may look for funds to start a position TODAY.
Happy Wednesday. Drop me a line at email@example.com if you have any questions, comments, suggestions, or just kind words of encouragement. I have received a couple of emails suggesting we have a few readers out there who appreciate all of this....and thank you for writing.
June 18, 2003 Macrovision (MVSN)
Hello friends! Thank you for stopping by.
Was scanning through the lists this morning and not finding much. It does look like the market is trying to correct but those BULLS are lurking in the background and seem to be BUYING on any weakness!
This morning's pick is Macrovision. Right away I want to tell you that I do own some shares in one of my managed accounts that I have for some retirement assets. So, #1 I am a little biased about this issue in a favorable sense, and #2 I am a little more familiar with them.
MVSN is the company that in a nutshell has been providing copy protection for all of your (or many) VHS tapes for years and now is offering copy protection for CD's and DVD's. They have some other lines of work but that in a word is the main thrust of this organization.
Macrovision is having a GREAT day today on news of their reorganization into two operating units: one for their video and music technology and the other "SafeCast business and the enterprise unit merge into the software technology groups." per CBS MarketWatch news.
The stock currently is trading at $21.15 up $4.26 or 20.39% (!) on the day.
On April 28, 2003, MVSN reported their first quarter 2003 results with revenues of $28.1 million vs $23.7 million a year yearlier, an increase of 19% (per NYTimes on the web.) Pro forma diluted earnings per share were $.17 or 6% lower than the $.18 last year. (this is NOT part of our usual criteria....as earnings should be UP in the latest quarter....but I have written so much already...and the rest of the picture IS very nice.)
Morningstar.com shows revenues of $31.1 million in 1997, $36.4 million in 1998, $52.1 million in 1999, $80.1 million in 2000, $99 million in 2001, and $102 million in 2002. Based on recent quarter, extrapolating would get us over $110 million in 2003.
They are cash flow positive, while dropping from $35 million in 2000, to $31 million in 2001, but back up to $51 million in 2002.
The company, per Morningstar is LOADED with cash, with $171.7 million of cash reported more than the $27.4 million in current liabilities and there is NO long-term debt.
The stock looks nice to me with the one caveat that the last quarter showed a 6% drop in earnings....overall a nice stock to consider in your portfolio and I am glad I have some in mine!
Please let me know if you have any questions or comments on this or anything else on this site....email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
Tuesday, 17 June 2003
June 17, 2003 FactSet Research Systems (FDS)
O.k. it is almost 11 pm here in Wisconsin and I really should be getting some sleep but I know I haven't looked hard at that list of stocks so here goes.
In fact, this selection, FactSet Research looks BETTER to me than Dicks Sporting Goods that I went ahead and bought earlier today. I guess it is just buyer's remorse. And besides, can you REALLY get excited about a stock whose symbol is FDS? Anyhow...don't let me explain THAT one.
ANYHOW, FactSet had a GREAT day in the market. The stock was up $2.56 to $40.39 a gain of 6.77% on the day.
What sparked interest in this company, was their earnings report which came out earlier today. The company, by the way, "is a provider of online integrated database services to the global financial community. The company provides financial information and analytics for investment managers/bankers, and other financial professionals." I wonder if that includes amateur WebLog authors....hmmm. (per CNN.Money)
Back to the earnings report...Revenues were up 12.8% to $59.1 million while operating income rose 21% to 19.5 million. Net income increased 37.8% to $14.3 million and diluted earnings per share increased 41.4% to $.41 for the quarter ending May 31, 2003. This is per the NYTimes on the Web.
Looking at Morningstar we see one of those BEAUTIFUL bar graph progressions that is the HALLMARK of the website here. Revenue was $78.9 million in 1998, $103.8 million in 1999, $134.2 million in 2000, $176.7 million in 2001, $205.9 million in 2002, and $211.7 million for the trailing twelve months.
Extrapolating from the current quarter at $59.1 million we get just under $240 million for the year 2003. Not too shabby indeed.
There are only 34 million shares outstanding for a market cap of $1.365 billion. The stock has a trailing p/e of 32.31 and DOES pay a dividend...small but not bad in today's interest climate of 0.52%.
Free Cash Flow has been improving recently with an improvement from $19 million in 2000 and 2001 up to $57 million in 2002.
This company is LOADED with CASH. They have $138.7 million in cash with $41.7 million in other current assets. Current liabilities are $35.3 million and there is NO long-term debt. (I am really sorry I rushed and bout Dicks now.....lol...but this one looks great!).
I do not own any shares but if there is any way I can figure out to pick up some I sure would! This is a pretty stock and deserves a place in your portfolio!
Regards to my friends. Again, please respond or comment right HERE on this WebLog or drop me a line at Bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com and I will try to get back to you! Have a great evening....all 54 minutes left!
Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:06 PM CDT
Updated: Tuesday, 17 June 2003 11:15 PM CDT
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