Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Sunday, 29 June 2003
How are we doing? Looking back on week of 5/26/03....(6/29/03)
Well it is Sunday and the markets are closed. I almost go through withdrawal on weekends when there is nothing to watch....no CNBC...no stock prices...but I DID spend the day picking strawberries with the family. That is TRULY a great way of getting back in touch with things.
The last couple of weeks we have used the weekend to check on our picks from prior dates. We are pacing ourselves about a month out.....Looking at the week of 5/26/03....we had a lot of selections made and it would be nice to see how they have been performing.
First pick on our list was Westcorp. As you may recall, this company's principal activity "is to provide automobile lending services, retail and commercial banking services through its subsidiaries." according to CNN.Money. We selected Westcorp on 5/27/03 at $24.41. On Friday 6/27/03, a month later, WES was trading at $28.87. This is a very nice gain of $4.46 or a gain of 18.27% on the month.
Also on 5/27/03 we selected DEAR, Dearborn Bancorp, which is, according to CNN.Money, a "one-bank holding company, which operates through its banking subsidiary Community Bank of Dearborn." We picked this stock at a price of $22.50 and it closed one month later on 6/27/03, at $20.00. This is a loss of $2.50 or a loss of 11.1%. (we do NOT bat 100%)
On 5/28/03, ANF, or Abercrombie and Fitch, the youth retailer was picked at a price of $29.07. Currently, as of 6/27/03 ANF closed at $28.55. This is a loss of $.52 or a loss of 1.8%.
Also of May 28, 2003, we selected Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) at $34.35. KKD closed on 6/27/03, a month later at $40.10. This is a gain of $5.75 or 16.7%.
May 29, 2003, found us selecting Medical staffing network, MRN, at $7.52. One month later, MRN is trading at $7.25 as of 6/27/03. This is a loss of $.27 or a loss of 3.6%.
Also on 5/29/03 we selected Dollar General (DG) at $17.80. DG closed Friday, 6/27/03 at $18.00, a gain of $.20 or 1.1%.
Finally on 5/29/03, Hovnanian Enterprises, the home-builder was picked at $56.29. HOV closed Friday at $61.69. This is a gain of $5.40 or a gain of 9.6%.
The last pick of the week, on 5/30/03, was Eon Labs, Inc., the generic drug manufacturer. Eon closed Friday 6/27/03 at $35.77. We picked Eon on 5/30/03 at $29.55. It is up $6.22 or 21.04%.
Out of our 8 picks that week, in the short period of one month follow-up, we had five stocks up, ranging from 21.0% for ELAB, 18.27% for WES, 16.7% for KKD, 9.6% for HOV, and 1.1% for DG. Three of our picks were down for the month, ranging from (11.0%) for DEAR, (3.6%) for MRN, and (1.8%) for ANF. Although not PERFECT, this is a pretty fabulous result for the picks that week. If we were sticking with our 8% stops, we would have dropped DEAR...and be watching the other two with losses closely.
Have a great week investing!
Again, please drop me a line at email@example.com if you have any questions, comments, and what I like most of all, words of encouragement!
Friday, 27 June 2003
After writing the last entry, I was sold on ORCC, I sold 100 of my AAII, and bout 500 ORCC....about $6.12 I believe. Regards! Bob
June 27, 2003 Online Resources Corp. (ORCC)
It was getting late in the session and I was scrounging around (? is that a word) the list of Most Up stocks on CNN.Money....I did see Krispy Kreme and Christopher and Banks...but we have already posted those picks....when I came across Online Resources Corp.
Yikes ANOTHER dot-com! But before you walk away from this one let's take a look at the numbers. Can numbers ever lie? Of course not...but what about accountants??? We won't go there.
Online Resources Corp "is a provider of e-financial services that enable regional and community financial institutions to provide Internet and other online banking services to their retail customers." (per CNN.Money)
On April 22, 2003, ORCC reported financial and operating results for the three months ending March 31, 2003: Revenues were $11.0 million an increase of 41% over first quarter revenues 2002 of $7.0 million. Profits were $7.2 million compared to $3.9 million last year. Net income was $2.1 million compared to a loss of $807,000 last year...or $.15/share compared to $(.06)/share in 2002.
Morningstar.com shows sequential growth in revenue from $2.9 million in 1997, $4.3 million in 1998, $8.4 million in 1999, $15.6 million in 2000, $24.6 million in 2001, and $32 million in 2002. Isn't that pretty! Extrapolating the present quarter we would get $44 million in 2003 without any growth.
Cash flow which has been negative at -$20 million in 2000, -$11 million in 2001, $-1 million in 2002, but POSITIVE $2 million for the trailing twelve months.
The company appears reasonably solvent with $4.0 million in cash on hand along with $10.4 million of other current assets compared to $3.3 million in current liabilities and $12.4 million in long-term debt.
This is a TINY company with a market cap of $75.5 million and only 13.7 million shares of which only 5.10 million float. The company trades at a p/e of 30.73 which although apparently steep isn't too bad considering they are just NOW turning profitable.
I like this company a lot....and if I find some cash somewhere may buy a few shares! Have a great weekend. Regards, Bob
P.S. (6/29/03....looks like I didn't write the stock price at the time of this entry....ORCC closed at $6.17 on the day (6/27/03) up $.67 or 12.18% on the day. We will use this price as our pick price.)
Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 2:36 PM CDT
Updated: Sunday, 29 June 2003 7:09 PM CDT
June 27, 2003 CACI International, Inc. (CAI)
A real mixed bag for the market today. Down down 11.49 at 9067.55 and NASDAQ up 6.91 at 1,640.92. The market is still digesting the rate cut and is now awaiting second quarter results.
Looking over the most active/biggest gainers I have come acrosse CACI International (CAI). The stock is having a very nice day trading at $34.27 up $1.38 on the day or 4.20% per the NYTimes on the web.
I do not own any shares of this NYSE issue. In fact, I am not very familiar with them at all!
CNN.Money relates that CACI International "is an information systems and high technology services corporation. The Company provides services to United States defense and civilian agencies, and commercial enterprises." Now that you CLEARLY understand what they do....isn't it easier to appreciate what a Big Mac is at McDonalds?
On April 24, 2003, per the NYTimes on the web, they reported record results for their third fiscal quarter ending March 31, 2003. Revenue increased 21%. And Net Income was up 33% compared to the prior year.
Morningstar.com shows the company has some great fundamentals: revenue increased steadily from $312 million in 1998, to $427.4 million in 1999, $484.5 million in 2000, $557.9 million in 2001, $681.9 million in 2002, and extrapolating forward with the $222.0 million revenue this latest quarter we get about $900 million in revenue for 2003.
Free cash flow has improved nicely since 2000 when $12 million was reported to $23 million in 2001, $31 million in 2002, and $59 million for the trailing twelve months.
They are also pretty flush with cash with $107.9 million on hand almost enough to cover their current liabilities of $99.4 million and $17.0 million in long-term liabilities. In addition, they have another $192.6 million in other current liabilities.
The stock looks very nice to me. They are reasonably priced trading at a p/e of 25.70. Relatively small, they have a market cap of $944.7 million, with 28.7 million shares outstanding and 27.6 million shares floating.
I actually like this stock a lot. Not very exciting but then again their performance is steady. I don't own any shares but would be happy to add them to my portfolio if the opportunity arose....otherwise YOU might wish to pick up some shares!
Please contact me at firstname.lastname@example.org if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement! Bob
Thursday, 26 June 2003
June 26, 2003 Biovail (BVF)
I am kind of surprised our radar hasn't picked up this stock before today. I don't own any shares but I am aware of the outstanding numbers and track record of this company.
Anyhow, Biovail (BVF) is having a great day today. Currently trading at $49.30 up $3.30 on the day, again of 7.17%. This is a bit larger company than some of our small ones with a market capitalization of $7.28 Billion with 158.3 million shares outstanding and 131.3 million shares floating. The price/earnings is a bit pricey at 74.80 (!). (per Yahoo.com)
Looking at CNN.Money, we find that BVF "applies advanced proprietary controlled release delivery technologies to the development and manufacture of drug products for treatment of major chronic conditions."
The first quarter, 2003, was reported on April 29, 2003: Total revenues increased 23% to $191.4 million from $155.2 million last year. First quarter 2003 diluted earnings per share increased 22% to $.39 from $.32 last year. This was reported on Yahoo.com.
Morningstar.com shows an equally pretty picture with steady revenue growth from $66 million in 1996, $82 million in 1997, $112 million in 1998, $172 million in 1999, $309 million in 2000, and $583 million in the trailing twleve months per Morningstar. Currently extrapolating the first quarter of 2003 we have a rate of $760 million for 2003 going forward.
Free cash flow has increased from $44 million in 1999, $87 million in 2000, and $182 million in the trailing twelve months per morningstar.com. Liabilities are a bit steep relative to assets on this report but with the ample cash flow and increasing revenues/earnings this does not seem to be a problem.
This is a GREAT stock to consider for your portfolio. I do not own any shares....and do not have any cash free to buy some but would certainly consider it if I did! Have a great Thursday.
Drop me a line at email@example.com if you have any questions, comments, or as always appreciated words of encouragement!
Wednesday, 25 June 2003
June 25, 2003 Biosite (BSTE)
This one I have owned for awhile with a brokerage firm in the Cities (Minneapolis for all of you non-midwesterners!)..This is a managed account and I do not make the selections. But I can see why my advisors liked this one.
According to CNN.Money, Biosite, Inc. "develops, manufactures and markets diagnostic products that improve the quality of patient care and simplify the practice of laboratory medicine." Is that ABSTRUSE enough for you?
On May 1, 2003, BSTE reported their first quarter 2003 results: Per the NYTimes on the web, revenues grew 114% and net profits grew 265% (!).
Five year financials on Morningstar.com shows a beautiful series of bar graphs with revenue of $31.7 million in 1997, $37.1 million in 1998, $43.7 million in 1999, $55.0 million in 2000, $66 million in 2001 and $105 million in 2002. Isn't that spectacular?
Free cash flow has improved from positive $1 million in 2000, $15 million in 2001, $12 million in 2002.
This company has LOADS of cash with $70.9 million of cash on hand compared to current liabilities of $18.1 million and $5.3 million in long term debt. This does not take into consideration the $27.9 million in other current assets reported on Morningstar.
By the way, BSTE is having a GREAT day today trading at $48.15 up $4.20 or 9.55% on the day.
The market cap is $658.9 million and there are only 15.0 million shares outstaqnding with 13.7 million that float. (are the others sinkers?)....yuck
The stock does trade at a kind of high p/e of 39.17...and like I said above I DO own some shares of this stock. But if you just LOOK at the numbers and the bar graphs on morningstar.com, I will let you make your own decision...
Reminds me of the old Alka Seltzer commercial with the mother offering her kid some spicy meatballs...."Try it you'll like it!"...that's kind of how I feel about THIS company!
June 25, 2003 Digital Insight Corp (DGIN)
Heaven forbid but I think I have ANOTHER dot-com here...or am I defining them wrong? Anyhow this one looks nice to me.
According to CNN.Money, Digital Insight "provides Internet banking services to credit unions, banks and savings and loans. Services include online banking, bill payment, cash management, target marketing and eCommerce portal capabilities."
DGIN is currently trading at $17.96 up $2.04 on the day which is a gain of 12.81% per NYTimes on the Web.
I do not own any shares of this. However, just like our last pick, this one looks very intriguing and if I lose all sense of self control......
On April 24, 2003, DGIN reported their first quarter results for the period ending March 31, 2003: revenues for the first quarter increased 35% to $35.5 million from $30.1 million in the first period last year. Net income was $2.9 million or $.09/share
compared to a net loss last year of $34.7 million or ($1.11)/share. This was reported in the NYTimes on the web.
Morningstar.com shows a beautiful picture when the 5 year financials are shown: Revenues increase sequentially from $5.1 million in 1997, to $13.2 million in 1998, $26.2 million in 1999, $54.4 million in 2000, $94.6 million in 2001 and $130 million in 2002. If we extrapolate from the current first quarter we get approximately $142 million in revenue for 2003.
Free Cash Flow has ALSO turned positive in the last couple of years from NEGATIVE $60 million in 2000, NEGATIVE $22 million in 2001, to POSITIVE $11 million in 2002.
Morningstar shows LOADS of cash with $74.4 million in cash more than $43.4 million in current liabilities and $6.0 million in long-term liabilities.
So 'What made the stock jump today?' you ask....well they announced a new relationship with Microsoft and you might just want to read more about DGIN on the Net. The stars are aligned for this one!
Have a great day investing and return often!
June 25, 2003 Bankrate, Inc. (RATE)
I had such a LOUSY day yesterday....didn't post any new ones. We got stopped out on our DKS and it then turned around and zoomed up! Sold a couple of others and I will update you on these as we go.
This morning the market was up and the Fed was preparing to cut rates....don't you kind of suspect the market turns LOWER on the NEWS of the cut. That is how it works...things RISE in anticipation and FALL on realization of expectations. Kind of a mind game don't you think?
I scanned some of the movers today, saw RATE and bout 400 shares. So I AM a stockholder of this one. I don't usually like to buy first and let you know later.....but when I DO, I want to tell you about it...transparency you see!
Bankrate, Inc. (RATE) "provides consumers with independent and objective research comparing various banking and credit products, such as mortgages, home equity loands and credit cards through a broad portfolio of Websites and print publications." per CNN.Money.
RATE is having a GREAT day today trading at $10.40 up $1.13 on the day or 12.19%.
On April 30, 2003, Bankrate reported their first quarter results for the quarter ending March 31, 2003: total revenue rose 52% to a record $8.5 million from $5.6 million in 2002, net income was up over 100% to $2 million from $690,000 in 2002 and on a per share basis was up to $.13/share from $.05.
Morningstar shows nice sequential growth from 1998 when $3.5 million in revenue was reported jumping to $12 million in 1999, $15.2 million in 2000, $18.3 million in 2001, and $24 million in 2002. Extrapolating from the current $8.5 million in the first quarter of 2003 would bring us to a $34 million/year rate this year. Certainly, if interest rates start rising...not expected soon..but possible...there might be a quick drop off of refinancing.
Free cash flow has been improving steadily from a negative $18 million in 1999, negative $13 million in 2000, to a positive $1 million in 2001 and $3 million in the trailing twelve months per Morningstar.com.
Morningstar goes on to report an excellent financial picture for RATE with $8.4 million of cash on hand with only $3.8 million of current liabilities and $0.1 million of long term debt. Other current assets are at $3.3 million not even counting the cash.
This is a small company with a market capitalization of $131.7 million with only 14.2 million shares outstanding and a float of 7.10 million shares.
Yahoo reports a p/e of 23.23 so valuation is good.
You can see why I like this one....another dot-com (yikes!)....and bought 300 shares this a.m. Use your own judgement on this! As always keep the 8% stops and drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org if you have any questions, comments, or most of all words of encouragement!
Tuesday, 24 June 2003
Trading Account Update 6/24/03
Sometimes you never learn about bending rules! FDCC is down today passing my 8% loss and I have sold all shares. Unfortunately LIFC has hit the 8% loss and that is now OUT of the portfolio. Both are great looking stocks....but we will try to maintain our trading discipline. Proceeds will go towards margin debt....not new position! Good luck today...looks like the market wants to bounce back a little...will wait towards later in the session to tell if this holds...Bob
Monday, 23 June 2003
Transparency: FDCC trade
No self-control. That FDCC looked so nice...famous last words? Anyhow, I got rid of my two weakest stocks in my trading portfolio....both underwater by about 5%, ACS and DKS....and bot 300 of FDCC. I liked the low p/e, high growth rate, low # shares and the consistency. Anyhow, I am now an owner of some shares. Wish me luck.
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