Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Wednesday, 2 July 2003
July 2, 2003 Digital River (DRIV)
O.K. this one I do own. I purchased some today prior to making this post and have owned some elsewhere in a managed account. Let me share with you the numbers, and you may wish to own some too!
Digital River (DRIV), per CNN.Money, "provides comprehensive electronic commerce outsourcing solutions to software publishers and online retailers." I know that I recently downloaded a Norton Antivirus 2003 program online...and it was Digital River that provided the software to do this.
DRIV is having a GREAT day...and that is how we came across it. Trading at $21.69, it is up $2.83 or 15.01% for the day. The p/e is a bit pricey at 41.71, although Yahoo shows the same stock with a p/e of 78.58....so not exactly a screaming value play. The market cap is a small $612.6 Million.
Yahoo reports 28.3 million shares outstanding with 25.2 million float.
Per CBSmarketwatch.com, on April 23, 2003, DRIV reported the first quarter results for the quarter ending March 31, 2003. Revenue was $24.6 million a 36% increase over last year's revenue of $18.1 million. Sequentially, from the prior quarter, revenue increased 14% from the $21.5 million in the fourth quarter of last year.
Net income this quarter was $4.0 million or $.13/share compared to a net LOSS of $3.5 million last year or ($.13)/share last year.
Morningstar.com shows the EXCELLENT revenue progression of this company starting at a miniscule $3 million in 1998, going to $15 million in 1999, $31 million in 2000, $58 million in 2001, $78 million in 2002, and extrapolating from the present quarter should be nearly $100 million in 2003.
Free cash flow has improved annually from a NEGATIVE $26 million in 2000 and Negative $5 million in 2001, to POSITIVE $12 million in 2002 and $19 million for the trailing twelve months.
The company has LOADS of cash with $49.2 million in cash which is more than the $43.3 million in current liabilities. Morningstar reports NO long-term liabilities.
Like I already said, I LIKE this stock A LOT....and just purchased some TODAY. There isn't much not to like except the valuation is a bit steep. But this is a company JUST turning profitable and the p/e should drop quickly as revenues and earnings grow. At least I hope so! If it hits the 8% loss, it will be sold like all the others.
Have a great day and evening....and best wishes for the Fourth!
July 2, 2003 Trading Transparency
I sold positions in two of my stocks in my trading account today....both on GOOD news! Sold 50 shares of KRON when it hit a 30% gain, and sold 100 of my 400 shares of RATE when it hit a 30% gain after holding it for UNDER A WEEK!....wow...wish I had bought more of that one! Regards again...Bob
July 2, 2003 Metrologic Instruments Inc. (MTLG)
O.k., I confess, I thought this was some kind of weather instrument company! So I didn't read it to closely....I at least knew that Meteorology was something about weather...isn't it?
Metrologic (MTLG), however, is, according to NYTimes.com, "...a leading manufacturer of sophisticated imaging systems using laser, holographic, camera and vision based technologies, high speed automated data capture solutions and bar code scanners."
MTLG is having a great day today...I don't think it is on our list (lol the list is getting LONG), but I have come across this before....but do not own any shares right now. I might just look to purchase some though...
The stock is currently trading at $35.60 up $3.14 on the day or 9.67% on news that it excpects to exceed earnings forecasts.
Last quarter which ended March 31, 2003, was reported on NYTimes on the web: sales increased 17% to $32.3 million from $27.5 million in 2002. Net income was $1.9 million or $.33/diluted share (excluding a one time gain of $2.2 million)...compared to net income of $0.2 million or $0.00/share for the same period last year.
Morningstar.com shows great sequential growth in revenue from $53.5 million in 1997, $66 million in 1998, $80 million in 1999, $92 million in 2000, $114 million in 2001, and $117 million in 2002. The current quarter extrapolated forward (if you bear with me) would result in an anticipated revenue result of $128 million in 2003.
Free cash flow, as reported on Morningstar has improved from a NEGATIVE $20 million to POSITIVE $13 million in 2001, $18 million in 2002, and $22 million in the trailing twelve months (TTM as they like to say!).
Morningstar shows little 'cash' on hand of $0.9 million but there apparently is $35.7 million in other current assets compared to $23.2 million in current liabilities and $14.8 million in Long-term liabilities. Overall not too bad a picture here.
I like this stock a lot. The company trades at a p/e of 33.12, with a very small market cap of $195.7 million. There are only 5.49 Million shares outstanding and only 2.00 million of those float.
So expect a lot of volatility. It has already had a BIG run from $10 to current lofty heights and may correct before moving on....but I am not a technician. I like the earnings and revenue growth and the fact that they are RAISING expectations today.
Have a GREAT Wednesday and stop by again. Please sign in if you get a chance on the homepage: firstname.lastname@example.org and be sure to email me if you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement! email@example.com
July 2, 2003 Mid Atlantic Medical Services, Inc. (MME)
Being a physician, it is difficult to always appreciate HMO's, but I have one for you today.
Mid Atlantic Medical Services, Inc., is, according to CNN.Money, "...a holding company for subsidiaries active in managed health care and other life and health insurance related activities."
The stock is having a great day today: trading at $55.56, up $3.33 or 6.38%. The company trades at a trailing p/e of 20.35 with a market cap. of $2.6 Billion. There are 46.654 Million shares outstanding.
On May 7, 2003, MME, per the NYTimes on the Web, announced strong first quarter earnings: diluted earnings per share were $.84 compared to $.45 in the first quarter of 2002. Revenue increased to $664 million from $550 million. Net income was $34 million vs $18 million last year.
Morningstar shows a steady growth in revenue from
$1.1 billion in 1997, $1.2 billion in 1998, $1.3 billion in 1999, $1.5 billion in 2000, $1.8 billion 2001, and $2.3 billion in 2002. At the current revenue rate we about $2.5 billion in 2003.
Free cash flow is beautiful improving from $72 million in 2000, to $109 million in 2001, $175 million in 2002 and $236 million in the trailing twelve months.
The company appears to have NO long term debt per morningstar.com and has LOADS of cash at $591.2 million with $184.9 million in other current assets vs $520.7 million in current liabilities.
I do not own any shares of this. But this is sure a pretty picture. As much as I feel about HMO's....this sure looks like an investment opportunity to me!
Regards to all my friends. Drop me a line a firstname.lastname@example.org and I will try to get back to you ASAP!
Tuesday, 1 July 2003
July 1, 2003 ChoicePoint (CPS)
It is late in the evening but I wanted to take a look at the stocks and see if we can find one off the top gainers that fits our criteria. ChoicePoint appears to make the grade.
CPS closed at $36.14 up $1.62 or 4.69% on the day. The stock has a trailing p/e of 25.76, a market cap of 3.139 Billion, and does not pay a dividend.
According to Yahoo, ChoicePoint "provides identification and credential verification services to businesses, individuals and government agencies." Sounds like a very timely stock with all of the national security issues at the forefront.
On April 22nd, 2003, ChoicePoint reported first quarter "core" revenues for the quarter ending March 31, 2003, at
$184.0 million compared to $158.6 million in the same quarter last year an increase of 8%. Operating income increased 17% to $51.8 million from $44.2 million last year. Free cash flow was $18.6 million for the first quarter.
It should be noted that on June 3, 2003, CPS reported "taking a more conservative approach to forecasting full-year revenue and now expects 2003 core revenue growth to be in the 10% to 12% range." This doesn't appear to be too bad a news report indeed. This was reported on Yahoo.com.
By the way, I do not own any shares nor do any members of my family as far as I know.
Morningstar.com shows a wonderful progression of revenue growth from $466.1 million in 1998, to $507.9 million in 1999, $630.9 million in 2000, $694.0 million in 2001, $791.6 million in 2002.
Free cash flow has improved yearly at least since 2000 when it was reported at $96 million improving to $109 million in 2001 and $149 million in 2002 with $153 million in the trailing twelve months.
Assets and liabilities appear to be fairly well balanced although current liabilities are a bit steep. Cash and other current assets come out as $25.6 million and $186.5 million respectively, with $229.3 million reported in current liabilities and $88.3 million in long term debt. With the excellent free cash flow, this debt appears grossly manageable.
I think this stock is a very interesting pick and deserves some attention perhaps as an addition to your portfolio! As always, I look forward to your questions, comments, and words of encouragements at Bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com!
Monday, 30 June 2003
June 30, 2003 TransMontaigne, Inc. (TMG)
It is late in the evening and I am just getting to the site. Haven't found much all day except our Lannett (LCI) on the AMEX made the list...but we have already posted THAT pick.
This is a different one....TransMontaigne...sounded like a French company, but it is American and based in Colorado. TMG, according to CNN.Money, "provides transportation, terminaling, storage, supply, distribution, gathering, processing and marketing services to the petroleum industry."
TMG had a great day, closing at $6.48 up $.97 or 17.60% on the day. The p/e is a steep 110.20, the market cap is a small $263.5 Million.
On May 14, 2003, TMG reported results for the third fiscal quarter ending March 31, 2003: Revenue increased from $1.3 billion in March, 2002, to $2.3 billion in March, 2003. Net earnings increased from $.20/share in 2002 to $.69/share in 2003.
Morningstar.com shows steady growth from $.5 billion in 1996 to $1.2 billion in 1997, $2.3 billion in 1998, $3.04 billion in 1999, $5.07 billion in 2000, and $5.17 billion for the 'trailing twelve months.' Extrapolating from the present quarter we have a revenue rate of about $9.2 billion in 2003.
Free cash flow has improved from a negative $206 million in 1999 to a positive $208 million in 2000. No further years are reported on Morningstar.
Assets and liabilities show a significant amount of debt with $36.2 million in cash and $343.4 million other current assets vs. $238.7 million in current liabilities with $378.4 million in long term debt.
This is a different kind of stock than we usually find and it deserves your consideration. I do not own any shares of this issue! Good luck Tuesday investing!
Sunday, 29 June 2003
How are we doing? Looking back on week of 5/26/03....(6/29/03)
Well it is Sunday and the markets are closed. I almost go through withdrawal on weekends when there is nothing to watch....no CNBC...no stock prices...but I DID spend the day picking strawberries with the family. That is TRULY a great way of getting back in touch with things.
The last couple of weeks we have used the weekend to check on our picks from prior dates. We are pacing ourselves about a month out.....Looking at the week of 5/26/03....we had a lot of selections made and it would be nice to see how they have been performing.
First pick on our list was Westcorp. As you may recall, this company's principal activity "is to provide automobile lending services, retail and commercial banking services through its subsidiaries." according to CNN.Money. We selected Westcorp on 5/27/03 at $24.41. On Friday 6/27/03, a month later, WES was trading at $28.87. This is a very nice gain of $4.46 or a gain of 18.27% on the month.
Also on 5/27/03 we selected DEAR, Dearborn Bancorp, which is, according to CNN.Money, a "one-bank holding company, which operates through its banking subsidiary Community Bank of Dearborn." We picked this stock at a price of $22.50 and it closed one month later on 6/27/03, at $20.00. This is a loss of $2.50 or a loss of 11.1%. (we do NOT bat 100%)
On 5/28/03, ANF, or Abercrombie and Fitch, the youth retailer was picked at a price of $29.07. Currently, as of 6/27/03 ANF closed at $28.55. This is a loss of $.52 or a loss of 1.8%.
Also of May 28, 2003, we selected Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) at $34.35. KKD closed on 6/27/03, a month later at $40.10. This is a gain of $5.75 or 16.7%.
May 29, 2003, found us selecting Medical staffing network, MRN, at $7.52. One month later, MRN is trading at $7.25 as of 6/27/03. This is a loss of $.27 or a loss of 3.6%.
Also on 5/29/03 we selected Dollar General (DG) at $17.80. DG closed Friday, 6/27/03 at $18.00, a gain of $.20 or 1.1%.
Finally on 5/29/03, Hovnanian Enterprises, the home-builder was picked at $56.29. HOV closed Friday at $61.69. This is a gain of $5.40 or a gain of 9.6%.
The last pick of the week, on 5/30/03, was Eon Labs, Inc., the generic drug manufacturer. Eon closed Friday 6/27/03 at $35.77. We picked Eon on 5/30/03 at $29.55. It is up $6.22 or 21.04%.
Out of our 8 picks that week, in the short period of one month follow-up, we had five stocks up, ranging from 21.0% for ELAB, 18.27% for WES, 16.7% for KKD, 9.6% for HOV, and 1.1% for DG. Three of our picks were down for the month, ranging from (11.0%) for DEAR, (3.6%) for MRN, and (1.8%) for ANF. Although not PERFECT, this is a pretty fabulous result for the picks that week. If we were sticking with our 8% stops, we would have dropped DEAR...and be watching the other two with losses closely.
Have a great week investing!
Again, please drop me a line at email@example.com if you have any questions, comments, and what I like most of all, words of encouragement!
Friday, 27 June 2003
After writing the last entry, I was sold on ORCC, I sold 100 of my AAII, and bout 500 ORCC....about $6.12 I believe. Regards! Bob
June 27, 2003 Online Resources Corp. (ORCC)
It was getting late in the session and I was scrounging around (? is that a word) the list of Most Up stocks on CNN.Money....I did see Krispy Kreme and Christopher and Banks...but we have already posted those picks....when I came across Online Resources Corp.
Yikes ANOTHER dot-com! But before you walk away from this one let's take a look at the numbers. Can numbers ever lie? Of course not...but what about accountants??? We won't go there.
Online Resources Corp "is a provider of e-financial services that enable regional and community financial institutions to provide Internet and other online banking services to their retail customers." (per CNN.Money)
On April 22, 2003, ORCC reported financial and operating results for the three months ending March 31, 2003: Revenues were $11.0 million an increase of 41% over first quarter revenues 2002 of $7.0 million. Profits were $7.2 million compared to $3.9 million last year. Net income was $2.1 million compared to a loss of $807,000 last year...or $.15/share compared to $(.06)/share in 2002.
Morningstar.com shows sequential growth in revenue from $2.9 million in 1997, $4.3 million in 1998, $8.4 million in 1999, $15.6 million in 2000, $24.6 million in 2001, and $32 million in 2002. Isn't that pretty! Extrapolating the present quarter we would get $44 million in 2003 without any growth.
Cash flow which has been negative at -$20 million in 2000, -$11 million in 2001, $-1 million in 2002, but POSITIVE $2 million for the trailing twelve months.
The company appears reasonably solvent with $4.0 million in cash on hand along with $10.4 million of other current assets compared to $3.3 million in current liabilities and $12.4 million in long-term debt.
This is a TINY company with a market cap of $75.5 million and only 13.7 million shares of which only 5.10 million float. The company trades at a p/e of 30.73 which although apparently steep isn't too bad considering they are just NOW turning profitable.
I like this company a lot....and if I find some cash somewhere may buy a few shares! Have a great weekend. Regards, Bob
P.S. (6/29/03....looks like I didn't write the stock price at the time of this entry....ORCC closed at $6.17 on the day (6/27/03) up $.67 or 12.18% on the day. We will use this price as our pick price.)
Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 2:36 PM CDT
Updated: Sunday, 29 June 2003 7:09 PM CDT
June 27, 2003 CACI International, Inc. (CAI)
A real mixed bag for the market today. Down down 11.49 at 9067.55 and NASDAQ up 6.91 at 1,640.92. The market is still digesting the rate cut and is now awaiting second quarter results.
Looking over the most active/biggest gainers I have come acrosse CACI International (CAI). The stock is having a very nice day trading at $34.27 up $1.38 on the day or 4.20% per the NYTimes on the web.
I do not own any shares of this NYSE issue. In fact, I am not very familiar with them at all!
CNN.Money relates that CACI International "is an information systems and high technology services corporation. The Company provides services to United States defense and civilian agencies, and commercial enterprises." Now that you CLEARLY understand what they do....isn't it easier to appreciate what a Big Mac is at McDonalds?
On April 24, 2003, per the NYTimes on the web, they reported record results for their third fiscal quarter ending March 31, 2003. Revenue increased 21%. And Net Income was up 33% compared to the prior year.
Morningstar.com shows the company has some great fundamentals: revenue increased steadily from $312 million in 1998, to $427.4 million in 1999, $484.5 million in 2000, $557.9 million in 2001, $681.9 million in 2002, and extrapolating forward with the $222.0 million revenue this latest quarter we get about $900 million in revenue for 2003.
Free cash flow has improved nicely since 2000 when $12 million was reported to $23 million in 2001, $31 million in 2002, and $59 million for the trailing twelve months.
They are also pretty flush with cash with $107.9 million on hand almost enough to cover their current liabilities of $99.4 million and $17.0 million in long-term liabilities. In addition, they have another $192.6 million in other current liabilities.
The stock looks very nice to me. They are reasonably priced trading at a p/e of 25.70. Relatively small, they have a market cap of $944.7 million, with 28.7 million shares outstanding and 27.6 million shares floating.
I actually like this stock a lot. Not very exciting but then again their performance is steady. I don't own any shares but would be happy to add them to my portfolio if the opportunity arose....otherwise YOU might wish to pick up some shares!
Please contact me at firstname.lastname@example.org if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement! Bob
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