Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Saturday, 12 July 2003
July 12, 2003 "How are we doing?" A look back on the picks of the week of June 2, 2003
Really haven't been too busy in this BLOG last couple of days. But sure have been busy at work! It is the weekend and we have a few hours to catch up with things...including this site! This is a great time to look back and see how we have been doing....have out picks been working out? Does what I am posting here make sense? The best test is the performance of these issues AFTER they are posted!
Our last look-back was for the week of May 26th...posted about 2 weeks ago...let's look at the following week when I was quite busy making picks...the week of June 2, 2003...about 5 weeks ago.
The first pick on 6/2 was Expressjet Holdings Inc (XJT) on the NYSE. At that time, XJT was trading at $12.60. Currently XJT as of 7/11/03, is priced at $15.20. This is a nice move from our pick of $2.60 or 20.6%.
Also on 6/2 we picked ACS, Affiliated Computer Services. This one has NOT performed well, and in fact was SOLD out of my trading portfolio on weakness. (I do not bat 100%!). We picked ACS on 6/2 at $49.18. Currently ACS is trading at $44.05, or a loss of $5.13 or (10.4%).
Coach, Inc. was picked on 6/2/03 at $51.53. Currently COH closed as of 7/11/03 at $55.33. this is a gain of $3.80 or a gain of 7.37%.
We also selected UFM, United Financial Mortgate, on 6/2/03 at $8.05. UFM closed on 7/11/03 at $8.40. This is a gain of $.35 or a gain of 4.34%.
On June 3, 2003, we selected SEM, SCHS, and WAG. SEM, or Select Medical Corporation, was trading at $22.10. Currently, as of 7/11/03, SEM is at $26.95 or a gain of $4.85. This represents a gain of 21.9%.
Also on June, 3, 2003, we picked School Specialty, Inc., which was at that time trading at $25.45. Currently, SCHS, as of 7/11/03, is at $30.61. This is a gain of $5.16 or a gain of 20.27%.
WAG, or Walgreens, was picked on 6/3/03 at $32.17. WAG closed on 7/11/03 at $30.90 or a loss of $1.27 or (3.9%).
On June 4, 2003, EELN was selected here at $5.06. E-Loan, Inc. closed at $6.59 on 7/11/03. This is a gain of $1.53 or 30.2%. A very nice move!
I was busy posting again on June 5, 2003, when we listed CBK, APPX, MWRK, and KMX.
CBK, Christopher and Banks, Corp., was trading at $33.45 when we picked it on 6/5/03. On 7/11/03, CBK closed at $37.19, a gain of $3.74 or a gain of 11.2%.
APPX, American Pharmaceutical Partners, was trading at $37.39 when we posted it on 6/5/03. APPX closed at $40.93 on 7/11/03, a gain of $3.54 or a gain of 9.5% since posting.
MWRK, or Mothers Work, Inc., was picked on 6/5/03 at $25.55. MWRK closed at $30.19 or a gain of $4.64 or a gain of 18.2% during this short period.
The last pick of 6/5/03 was KMX, or Carmax, Inc. which was trading at that time at $28.65. KMX closed at $34.40 on 7/11/03. This is a gain of $5.75 or a gain of 20.06%.
The final pick for the week was CAH, or Cardinal Health, Inc. CAH was trading at $64.17 on that day. on 7/11/03, CAH closed at $64.89. This is a gain of $.72 or a gain of 1.1% for the 5 week period.
Overall, not too bad a job! The thirteen selections of that week had gains of 20.6%, 7.3%, 4.34%, 21.9%, 20.27%, 30.2%, 11.2%, 9.5%, 18.2%, 20.06%, and 1.1%. Only two stocks had losses of (10.4%), and (3.9%). Averaging this performance, we have an average gain of 11.6% for the 5 week period.
To get more details about these selections, click on the dates along the left side of this BLOG in the Calendar and the postings will pop up.
I hope everyone has a great weekend and I will try to update the rest of this site including my trading portfolio later this weekend! Regards to all my friends!
Thanks for stopping by!
Tuesday, 8 July 2003
July 8, 2003 Websense (WBSN)
o.k. I give up. Another dot.com stock! Yet it DOES fit our criteria and the value/growth is quite nice imho.
Websense apparently confirmed bullish estimates on the upcoming second quarters and Motley Fool reported that the stock was moving up because of a 'short squeeze'. That occurs when people who are negative sell a lot of shares 'short' in anticipation of a drop in the stock and are then able to buy it back later at a lower price and thus a profit. A squeeze is a panic, that forces short sellers to buy shares back as the price mounts and their losses grow. O.K. that is enough for basic education on this site!
Websense had a great day today closing at $20.26 up $4.64 or 29.71% on the day! Wow! The stock trades with what appears to be a very reasonable p/e of 20.03. According to Yahoo, this San Diego, California based company has a smallish market cap of $341.8 Million with 21.9 million shares outstanding and 21.7 million shares float.
On April 22, 2002, WBSN reported their first quarter results for the quarter ending March 31, 2003. Revenue was a "record $18.5 million, an increase of 42 percent from the $13.0 million reported in the first quarter a year ago." according to a Business Wire report recorded on Yahoo. Net income for the quarter was $3.9 million or 17 cents per diluted share, compared to net income of $2.7 million or 11 cents per diluted share last year.
Websense, per CNN.Money, "...is a provider of employee Internet management products that enable businesses to monitor, report and manage how their employees use the Internet."
Looking at Morningstar.com, we find a beautiful picture of revenue growth, starting with $5.0 million in 1997, $6.9 million in 1998, $8.6 million in 1999, $17.4 million in 2000, $35.9 million in 2001, $61 million in 2002, and if we extrapolate the current quarter of revenue reported above without any growth we would have about $74 million in 2003. Very nice!
By the way, I do not own any shares of this issue, but would not be adverse to adding some to my portfolio in the near future.
Morningstar also shows a dramatic improvement in free cash flow from $6 million in 2000, $19 million in 2001, and $31 million in 2002.
This company, per Morningstar, is sitting on loads of cash with $151.2 million in cash and $26.3 million in other current assets, compared with $59.6 million in current liabilities and $17.2 million in long-term liabilities.
Overall, this is another BEAUTIFUL issue, reasonably priced with outstanding growth characteristics. I like it a lot and don't be surprised to see this added to my trading portfolio if I get a chance!
Thanks for stopping by. Please leave a comment right here or email me at firstname.lastname@example.org with your comments, questions, and most appreciated words of encouragement!
Monday, 7 July 2003
July 7, 2003 FindWhat.com FWHT
I hope everybody had a great 4th of July. Looks like it has taken until Monday to get some fireworks on Wall Street! Market is up strong today. Especially the NASDAQ.
Looking through the lists, another dot-com has shown up today: Findwhat.com. I guess I am getting used to suggesting dot.com's on this website!
According to CNN.money, FWHT "develops and markets performance-based advertising services for the Internet. Clients pay the Company for each visitor delivered to their web sites." Certainly could help THIS web site!
FWHT is having a great today trading at $22.16 up $2.25 or 11.30% on the day. The p/e ratio is reported at 37.50 on NYTimes on the web.
On April 30, 2003, FindWhat.com reported their first quarter results as noted on Yahoo.com. Highlights: revenue of $15.8 million increased 18% over prior quarter SEQUENTIALLY, and an increase of 82% over first quarter revenue of $8.7 million in 2002. Diluted earnings per share increased to $.14 this year compared to $.10 last year. In addition, the company increased its current projection for 2003 results!
Morningstar.com shows revenue growth from $.1 million in 1998 to $.5 million in 1999, $2.9 million in 2000, and $20.4 million in 2001 with $43 million reported in 2002. Extrapolating the current result without any growth would result in about $63 million in revenue for 2003.
Free cash flow has been improving from $-5 million in 2000, to $4 million in 2001, $9 million in 2002 and $12 million in the trailing twelve months as reported in Morningstar.com
The company, per Morningstar, has $27.7 million in cash and $2.9 million in other current assets and only $6.8 million in current liabilities and NO long-term liabilities at all.
I do not at this point own any shares but this is another pretty picture as a dot.com that has turned profitable on spectacular revenue growth. I guess that means I like it!
Thanks for reading this post. Please feel free to leave comments right here or drop me a line at email@example.com if you have any questions, comments, or my favorite: words of encouragement!
Wednesday, 2 July 2003
July 2, 2003 Digital River (DRIV)
O.K. this one I do own. I purchased some today prior to making this post and have owned some elsewhere in a managed account. Let me share with you the numbers, and you may wish to own some too!
Digital River (DRIV), per CNN.Money, "provides comprehensive electronic commerce outsourcing solutions to software publishers and online retailers." I know that I recently downloaded a Norton Antivirus 2003 program online...and it was Digital River that provided the software to do this.
DRIV is having a GREAT day...and that is how we came across it. Trading at $21.69, it is up $2.83 or 15.01% for the day. The p/e is a bit pricey at 41.71, although Yahoo shows the same stock with a p/e of 78.58....so not exactly a screaming value play. The market cap is a small $612.6 Million.
Yahoo reports 28.3 million shares outstanding with 25.2 million float.
Per CBSmarketwatch.com, on April 23, 2003, DRIV reported the first quarter results for the quarter ending March 31, 2003. Revenue was $24.6 million a 36% increase over last year's revenue of $18.1 million. Sequentially, from the prior quarter, revenue increased 14% from the $21.5 million in the fourth quarter of last year.
Net income this quarter was $4.0 million or $.13/share compared to a net LOSS of $3.5 million last year or ($.13)/share last year.
Morningstar.com shows the EXCELLENT revenue progression of this company starting at a miniscule $3 million in 1998, going to $15 million in 1999, $31 million in 2000, $58 million in 2001, $78 million in 2002, and extrapolating from the present quarter should be nearly $100 million in 2003.
Free cash flow has improved annually from a NEGATIVE $26 million in 2000 and Negative $5 million in 2001, to POSITIVE $12 million in 2002 and $19 million for the trailing twelve months.
The company has LOADS of cash with $49.2 million in cash which is more than the $43.3 million in current liabilities. Morningstar reports NO long-term liabilities.
Like I already said, I LIKE this stock A LOT....and just purchased some TODAY. There isn't much not to like except the valuation is a bit steep. But this is a company JUST turning profitable and the p/e should drop quickly as revenues and earnings grow. At least I hope so! If it hits the 8% loss, it will be sold like all the others.
Have a great day and evening....and best wishes for the Fourth!
July 2, 2003 Trading Transparency
I sold positions in two of my stocks in my trading account today....both on GOOD news! Sold 50 shares of KRON when it hit a 30% gain, and sold 100 of my 400 shares of RATE when it hit a 30% gain after holding it for UNDER A WEEK!....wow...wish I had bought more of that one! Regards again...Bob
July 2, 2003 Metrologic Instruments Inc. (MTLG)
O.k., I confess, I thought this was some kind of weather instrument company! So I didn't read it to closely....I at least knew that Meteorology was something about weather...isn't it?
Metrologic (MTLG), however, is, according to NYTimes.com, "...a leading manufacturer of sophisticated imaging systems using laser, holographic, camera and vision based technologies, high speed automated data capture solutions and bar code scanners."
MTLG is having a great day today...I don't think it is on our list (lol the list is getting LONG), but I have come across this before....but do not own any shares right now. I might just look to purchase some though...
The stock is currently trading at $35.60 up $3.14 on the day or 9.67% on news that it excpects to exceed earnings forecasts.
Last quarter which ended March 31, 2003, was reported on NYTimes on the web: sales increased 17% to $32.3 million from $27.5 million in 2002. Net income was $1.9 million or $.33/diluted share (excluding a one time gain of $2.2 million)...compared to net income of $0.2 million or $0.00/share for the same period last year.
Morningstar.com shows great sequential growth in revenue from $53.5 million in 1997, $66 million in 1998, $80 million in 1999, $92 million in 2000, $114 million in 2001, and $117 million in 2002. The current quarter extrapolated forward (if you bear with me) would result in an anticipated revenue result of $128 million in 2003.
Free cash flow, as reported on Morningstar has improved from a NEGATIVE $20 million to POSITIVE $13 million in 2001, $18 million in 2002, and $22 million in the trailing twelve months (TTM as they like to say!).
Morningstar shows little 'cash' on hand of $0.9 million but there apparently is $35.7 million in other current assets compared to $23.2 million in current liabilities and $14.8 million in Long-term liabilities. Overall not too bad a picture here.
I like this stock a lot. The company trades at a p/e of 33.12, with a very small market cap of $195.7 million. There are only 5.49 Million shares outstanding and only 2.00 million of those float.
So expect a lot of volatility. It has already had a BIG run from $10 to current lofty heights and may correct before moving on....but I am not a technician. I like the earnings and revenue growth and the fact that they are RAISING expectations today.
Have a GREAT Wednesday and stop by again. Please sign in if you get a chance on the homepage: firstname.lastname@example.org and be sure to email me if you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement! email@example.com
July 2, 2003 Mid Atlantic Medical Services, Inc. (MME)
Being a physician, it is difficult to always appreciate HMO's, but I have one for you today.
Mid Atlantic Medical Services, Inc., is, according to CNN.Money, "...a holding company for subsidiaries active in managed health care and other life and health insurance related activities."
The stock is having a great day today: trading at $55.56, up $3.33 or 6.38%. The company trades at a trailing p/e of 20.35 with a market cap. of $2.6 Billion. There are 46.654 Million shares outstanding.
On May 7, 2003, MME, per the NYTimes on the Web, announced strong first quarter earnings: diluted earnings per share were $.84 compared to $.45 in the first quarter of 2002. Revenue increased to $664 million from $550 million. Net income was $34 million vs $18 million last year.
Morningstar shows a steady growth in revenue from
$1.1 billion in 1997, $1.2 billion in 1998, $1.3 billion in 1999, $1.5 billion in 2000, $1.8 billion 2001, and $2.3 billion in 2002. At the current revenue rate we about $2.5 billion in 2003.
Free cash flow is beautiful improving from $72 million in 2000, to $109 million in 2001, $175 million in 2002 and $236 million in the trailing twelve months.
The company appears to have NO long term debt per morningstar.com and has LOADS of cash at $591.2 million with $184.9 million in other current assets vs $520.7 million in current liabilities.
I do not own any shares of this. But this is sure a pretty picture. As much as I feel about HMO's....this sure looks like an investment opportunity to me!
Regards to all my friends. Drop me a line a firstname.lastname@example.org and I will try to get back to you ASAP!
Tuesday, 1 July 2003
July 1, 2003 ChoicePoint (CPS)
It is late in the evening but I wanted to take a look at the stocks and see if we can find one off the top gainers that fits our criteria. ChoicePoint appears to make the grade.
CPS closed at $36.14 up $1.62 or 4.69% on the day. The stock has a trailing p/e of 25.76, a market cap of 3.139 Billion, and does not pay a dividend.
According to Yahoo, ChoicePoint "provides identification and credential verification services to businesses, individuals and government agencies." Sounds like a very timely stock with all of the national security issues at the forefront.
On April 22nd, 2003, ChoicePoint reported first quarter "core" revenues for the quarter ending March 31, 2003, at
$184.0 million compared to $158.6 million in the same quarter last year an increase of 8%. Operating income increased 17% to $51.8 million from $44.2 million last year. Free cash flow was $18.6 million for the first quarter.
It should be noted that on June 3, 2003, CPS reported "taking a more conservative approach to forecasting full-year revenue and now expects 2003 core revenue growth to be in the 10% to 12% range." This doesn't appear to be too bad a news report indeed. This was reported on Yahoo.com.
By the way, I do not own any shares nor do any members of my family as far as I know.
Morningstar.com shows a wonderful progression of revenue growth from $466.1 million in 1998, to $507.9 million in 1999, $630.9 million in 2000, $694.0 million in 2001, $791.6 million in 2002.
Free cash flow has improved yearly at least since 2000 when it was reported at $96 million improving to $109 million in 2001 and $149 million in 2002 with $153 million in the trailing twelve months.
Assets and liabilities appear to be fairly well balanced although current liabilities are a bit steep. Cash and other current assets come out as $25.6 million and $186.5 million respectively, with $229.3 million reported in current liabilities and $88.3 million in long term debt. With the excellent free cash flow, this debt appears grossly manageable.
I think this stock is a very interesting pick and deserves some attention perhaps as an addition to your portfolio! As always, I look forward to your questions, comments, and words of encouragements at Bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com!
Monday, 30 June 2003
June 30, 2003 TransMontaigne, Inc. (TMG)
It is late in the evening and I am just getting to the site. Haven't found much all day except our Lannett (LCI) on the AMEX made the list...but we have already posted THAT pick.
This is a different one....TransMontaigne...sounded like a French company, but it is American and based in Colorado. TMG, according to CNN.Money, "provides transportation, terminaling, storage, supply, distribution, gathering, processing and marketing services to the petroleum industry."
TMG had a great day, closing at $6.48 up $.97 or 17.60% on the day. The p/e is a steep 110.20, the market cap is a small $263.5 Million.
On May 14, 2003, TMG reported results for the third fiscal quarter ending March 31, 2003: Revenue increased from $1.3 billion in March, 2002, to $2.3 billion in March, 2003. Net earnings increased from $.20/share in 2002 to $.69/share in 2003.
Morningstar.com shows steady growth from $.5 billion in 1996 to $1.2 billion in 1997, $2.3 billion in 1998, $3.04 billion in 1999, $5.07 billion in 2000, and $5.17 billion for the 'trailing twelve months.' Extrapolating from the present quarter we have a revenue rate of about $9.2 billion in 2003.
Free cash flow has improved from a negative $206 million in 1999 to a positive $208 million in 2000. No further years are reported on Morningstar.
Assets and liabilities show a significant amount of debt with $36.2 million in cash and $343.4 million other current assets vs. $238.7 million in current liabilities with $378.4 million in long term debt.
This is a different kind of stock than we usually find and it deserves your consideration. I do not own any shares of this issue! Good luck Tuesday investing!
Sunday, 29 June 2003
How are we doing? Looking back on week of 5/26/03....(6/29/03)
Well it is Sunday and the markets are closed. I almost go through withdrawal on weekends when there is nothing to watch....no CNBC...no stock prices...but I DID spend the day picking strawberries with the family. That is TRULY a great way of getting back in touch with things.
The last couple of weeks we have used the weekend to check on our picks from prior dates. We are pacing ourselves about a month out.....Looking at the week of 5/26/03....we had a lot of selections made and it would be nice to see how they have been performing.
First pick on our list was Westcorp. As you may recall, this company's principal activity "is to provide automobile lending services, retail and commercial banking services through its subsidiaries." according to CNN.Money. We selected Westcorp on 5/27/03 at $24.41. On Friday 6/27/03, a month later, WES was trading at $28.87. This is a very nice gain of $4.46 or a gain of 18.27% on the month.
Also on 5/27/03 we selected DEAR, Dearborn Bancorp, which is, according to CNN.Money, a "one-bank holding company, which operates through its banking subsidiary Community Bank of Dearborn." We picked this stock at a price of $22.50 and it closed one month later on 6/27/03, at $20.00. This is a loss of $2.50 or a loss of 11.1%. (we do NOT bat 100%)
On 5/28/03, ANF, or Abercrombie and Fitch, the youth retailer was picked at a price of $29.07. Currently, as of 6/27/03 ANF closed at $28.55. This is a loss of $.52 or a loss of 1.8%.
Also of May 28, 2003, we selected Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) at $34.35. KKD closed on 6/27/03, a month later at $40.10. This is a gain of $5.75 or 16.7%.
May 29, 2003, found us selecting Medical staffing network, MRN, at $7.52. One month later, MRN is trading at $7.25 as of 6/27/03. This is a loss of $.27 or a loss of 3.6%.
Also on 5/29/03 we selected Dollar General (DG) at $17.80. DG closed Friday, 6/27/03 at $18.00, a gain of $.20 or 1.1%.
Finally on 5/29/03, Hovnanian Enterprises, the home-builder was picked at $56.29. HOV closed Friday at $61.69. This is a gain of $5.40 or a gain of 9.6%.
The last pick of the week, on 5/30/03, was Eon Labs, Inc., the generic drug manufacturer. Eon closed Friday 6/27/03 at $35.77. We picked Eon on 5/30/03 at $29.55. It is up $6.22 or 21.04%.
Out of our 8 picks that week, in the short period of one month follow-up, we had five stocks up, ranging from 21.0% for ELAB, 18.27% for WES, 16.7% for KKD, 9.6% for HOV, and 1.1% for DG. Three of our picks were down for the month, ranging from (11.0%) for DEAR, (3.6%) for MRN, and (1.8%) for ANF. Although not PERFECT, this is a pretty fabulous result for the picks that week. If we were sticking with our 8% stops, we would have dropped DEAR...and be watching the other two with losses closely.
Have a great week investing!
Again, please drop me a line at email@example.com if you have any questions, comments, and what I like most of all, words of encouragement!
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