Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Friday, 18 July 2003
"How are we doing?"..a look back on the picks of June 9, 2003
Hello friends. It is a weekend again, thank goodness and time to look back on our progress or lack of progress. I do not claim that this is a 'get rich scheme' but rather a reasonable method of picking 'quality stocks' that will appreciate over time. Let's see how our June 9th picks are doing.
First pick was Accredited Home Lenders (LEND) on June 9, 2003 when it was trading at $19.58. Currently as of close of trading on July 18, 2003, LEND is at $20.10, a gain of $.52 or 2.65%.
On June 10, 2003, we selected Caremark Rx (CMX) at $24.66. Currently CMX is trading at $25.13, a gain of $.47 or a gain of 1.9%.
June 10, 2003, also found us looking at Packeteer (PKTR) at $15.10. PKTR had a TERRIBLE day today....yikes...down $2.59 to $13.67. This is overall a loss of $1.43 from our purchase price or a loss of (9.47%).
Pediatrix (PDX) was selected on June 10, 2003, at $38.80. Currently PDX is trading at $39.70, a gain of $.90 or a gain of 2.31%.
June 11, 2003, we selected WebEx Communications (WEBX) at $14.41. WEBX closed today (7/18/03) at $15.19. This is a gain of $.78 or 5.4%.
Our next pick was Lennar (LEN) at $75.45. The homebuilders have been under a lot of pressure the past few weeks as mortgage rates have been reflating. (is that a word?) Anyhow, LEN closed at $68.35, a loss of $7.10 or a loss of (9.4%).
Charles River Associates (CRAI) was picked on 6/12/03 at $27.95. CRAI closed on 7/18/03 at $31.05 a gain of $3.10 or (11.09%).
Oshkosh Truck (OSK) was picked on 6/12/03 at $62.50. OSK closed today at $58.60 or a loss of $3.90 or (6.2%).
The final pick that week was Lannett Company (LCI) which was selected at $21.53. LCI closed today (7/18/03) at $20.50 a loss of $1.03 or a loss of (4.78%).
This was overall a mediocre performance for this group of stocks. Hopefully long-term we shall see improved performance....but the jury is out and we'll continue to monitor our performance to see if we need to change our rules of investing!
Regards to all of my friends....
July 18, 2003 Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc.
Hello friends! Back again with a last minute post before the market closes. If I had some cash, I would probably buy some of these shares but I do not have any cash available and do not own any shares of these nor anyone in my family.
Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. (BIO) is an AMEX issue that according to Cnn.money, "...manufactures and supplies the life science, analytical chemistry and healthcare markets with a broad range of products and systems used to separate complex chemical and biological materials, and to identify, analyze and purifty their components."
BIO is having a great day (aren't they ALL when they make this list!)....trading at $60.15 up $3.35 or 5.90% on the day. This apparently is in ANTICIPATION of their earnings release (?) coming on July 28, 2003.
First quarter results, for the quarter ending March 31, 2003, were reported on April 29, 2003. Results included an overall sales increas of 17% for the quarter to $246.0 million from $210.2 million last year. "Basic" earnings were up 38.7% to $1.04/share from $.75/share last year.
Morningstar.com shows a nice growth in revenue from $426.9 million in 1997, $447.9 million in 1998, $555.4 million in 1999, $725.9 million in 2000, $817.5 million in 2001, and $893 million in 2002.
Extrapolating the present quarter would get a revenue figure just shy of $1 billion for 2003.
Free cash flow has improved nicely the last few years from a negative $7 million i 2000 to positive $56 million in 2001, and $63 million in 2002.
Looking at the balance sheet we find $27.7 million in cash and $438.1 million in other current assets....more than enough to cover the $222 million in current liabilities and $115.6 million in long-term liabilities.
This company has a market cap of $1.44 Billion with 25.4 million shares outstanding with only 17.7 million that float. The p/e is a reasonable (to me) 19.70, no dividend is paid, and outstanding short sales total 589,000 shares or 2.08 trading days as of 6/9/03.
I actually like this company a lot....I fall in love EASILY with stocks!.....but do not have available cash to go buy some....so if YOU do...you might take the plunge with BIO...I think you will be glad you did.
July 18, 2003 Hansen Natural Corp. (HANS)
Here is a refreshing natural foods corp for you to munch on! I do not own any shares of this company nor do any of my family members. Hansen Natural Corp. (HANS), according to CNN.Money, "...markets, sells and distributes alternative beverage category sodas, fruit juices, fruit juice Smoothies, ready-to-drink iced teas, lemonades, juice cocktails, functional drinks and still water." Quite a mouthful and of course it is "still water"...jk.
Anyhow, HANS is having a great day today. (I am always in a more upbeat mood when the market is moving UP.) Currently Hansen is trading at $5.38 up $.56 on the day or an 11.62% increase. I usually avoid the under $10 stocks because of the increased volatility that has more than once 'shaken us out' with an 8% loss within days of a purchase. (8% of a $5 stock is just under a half-point!)
On May 13 2003, Hansen reported their first quarter results for the period ending March 31, 2003: Gross sales for the second quarter increased 23.1% to $27.7 million from $22.5 million last year. (Net sales increased only 18.8% to $22.1 million from $18.6 million a year ago)per the NYTimes on the Web.
Operating income advanced 43.3% to $1.1 million from $765,000 last year....net income increased 54.2% to $633,000 or $.06/share from $411,000 or $.04/share last year.
Apparently the big news for the quarter was the introduction of Monster Energy....this must be some kind of Generation X drink....
Morningstar.com shows a nice sequential growth in revenues for this small company from $54 million in 1998, $72.3 million in 1999, $79.7 million in 2000, $92.3 million in 2001 and $101.6 million in the trailing twelve months.
Free cash flow while small is still positive with a negative $2 million reported in 2000 to a positive $5 million in 2001 and $2 million in 2002.
HANS has $0.5 million in cash and $20.4 million in other current liabilities as opposed to $6.0 million in current liabilities and $6.1 million in long-term liabilities.
The market cap of this stock is TINY at $49.4 million with 10.3 million shares outstanding and only 5.90 million shares that float. The p/e is a reasonable 15.40...no dividend is paid.
If you are looking at a SMALL share price with a SMALL cap company Hansen may be the drink that refreshes! Always be careful of the small companies with the small floats due to volatility....but otherwise the stock looks nice and the numbers appear quite attractive!
Happy Friday everyone! I will try to do an update later this weekend to bring my trading portfolio and current prices up to date!
Thursday, 17 July 2003
July 17, 2003 ITT Educational Services, Inc. (ESI)
This one I do not own any shares but when reviewing the information is certainly very attractive. ITT Educational Services, Inc. (ESI) is "...a leading provider of technology-oriented postsecondary degree programs."
ESI had a GREAT day today in the midst of what anyone except a short-seller would call a lousy market. They closed today at $36.13 up $5.81 or 19.16% on the day.
It is earnings season and ESI reported their second quarter figures today: Revenues increased 15.2% from $108.3 million in 2002 to $124.8 million in 2003. Operating income was up 52.0% to $15.5 million from $10.1 million last year. Net Income jumped 45% to $9.8 million from $6.8 million last year. On a per share basis, earnings jumped 50% to $.21 from $.14 last year. Not too shabby indeed!
Morningstar.com shows a steady growth in revenues from $291 million in 1998, $316 million in 1999, $348 million in 2000, $411 million in 2001, $465 million in 2002 and if we extrapolate the second quarter we will get somewhere near $500 million in revenue for 2003.
Free cash flow while not consistently growing has been positive ranging from $27 million in 2000, $26 million in 2001, $93 million in 2002, and $50 million in the trailing twelve months.
The balance sheet is pretty even with $134.7 million in cash against $137.2 million in current liabilities. In addition there is $20 million in other current assets enough to cover the reported $15.4 in long-term liabilities.
Per Yahoo, ESI has a market cap of $1.36 Billion with 44.8 million in shares outstanding and 40.7 million shares float. There ARE 1.28 million shares out short...representing 3.77 days of trading so this is a positive insofar as these sellers are waiting in line to purchase sales to replace their borrowed shares they have sold.
All in all a nice stock...p/e is a moderate 30.50 and no dividends are paid.
Technically the stock looks nice as well....but I am not a technician and do not want to get into reading charts lol. Regards to all of my friends and visitors.
July 17, 2003 Closure Medical (CLSR)
As I noted in the previous post, this is a stock that I purchased shares in today! Things were moving quickly and I bailed out of my ORCC shares and jumped into CLSR. Let's take a look at Closure and I think you will appreciate this company!
CLSR, according to CNN.Money, "...develops, commercializes and manufactures medical tissue cohesive products based on its proprietary cyanoacrylate technology to be used for human & veterinary wound closure."
Closure had a GREAT day today (in a down market!) closing at $23.40 up $4.25 or 22.19% on the day.
What triggered this jump was the earnings report that came out this morning: total revenues for the quarter jumped 50% to $8.5 million from $5.7 million for the same period last year. Net income was $1.7 million or $.12/share compared to the prior year adjusted net income of $590,000 or $.04/share.
Closure works closely with Johnson & Johnson in the Band-aid brand liquid bandage product and with Colgate Palmolive with 'soothe-n-seal' Orabase medication. These are great partners for a small company!
Looking at Morningstar.com, we find sequential growth in revenue from $1.6 million in 1997, $9.6 million in 1998, $13.4 million in 1999, $13.7 million in 2000, $19 million in 2001, and $24 million in 2002. Extrapolating the current quarter we would get about $34 million in revenue for 2003.
Free cash flow has improved from 0 in 2000 to $3 million in 2001, $5 million in 2002 and $6 million in the trailing twelve months.
Closure's balance sheet as summarized on Morningstar looks excellent. They have $16.4 million in cash on hand (not counting $8.1 million in other current assets)...compared to $4.0 million in current liabilities and only $1.9 million in long-term liabilities.
Looking at Yahoo we find that this is a small company with a market cap of only $261.8 million with 13.7 million shares outstanding and of those only 6.80 million float. The trailing p/e is a reasonable 23.47 and there are only 134,000 shares out short so we cannot count on a short squeeze.
Overall, I like this stock a lot. In fact, enough to buy 250 shares this morning. The special relationship with JNJ is important and recalls to me the similar arrangement that SRDX has with JNJ as well....In that case the technology source behind the coated cardiac stents....but THAT is another story!
Regards to all of my friends and visitors here!
July 17, 2003 Trading Transparency CLSR for ORCC
The market really has taken it on the chin today! My Online Resources (ORCC) dropped down where it was at a 14% loss for me so we sold it out of our trading portfolio. CLSR (Closure Medical) showed up on the lists of most advancing issues. This is a long time favorite of mine although I haven't owned it previously, so I went ahead and picked up 250 shares for the portfolio. More details to follow! Bob
Wednesday, 16 July 2003
July 16, 2003 Pharmaceutical Resources (PRX)
Thanks for stopping by! I have another generic drug company to offer you today. I don't own any shares of this and haven't looked at this before....so here goes! By the way, the other companies on this site we have looked at include AAII, ELAB, and LCI. To this we add Pharmaceutical Resources (PRX).
PRX "...is a holding company which, through its subsidiary Par Pharmaceutical, Inc., manufactures and distributes a broad line of generic drugs.." per CNN.Money.
The stock is having a GREAT day trading at $52.83 up $2.27 on the day or 4.49%. (as reported in the NYTimes on the Web.
Last quarter's results were reported April 23, 2003, for the quarter ending March 30, 2003: total revenues increased 32% to $106.4 million compared to $80.5 million in 2002; net income and diluted earnings per share was $22.4 million and $.67 compared to $20.8 million and $.63 per share in the first quarter of 2002. (last year's quarter included a one time gain of $.09 or $2.9 million due to a legal settlement with BMY.
Looking at 5 year financials on Morningstar, we see revenue growth from $76 million in 1998, $80 million in 1999, $85 million in 2000, $271 million in 2001 and $382 million in 2002. Extrapolating the current first quarter 2003 out to all four quarters finds us anticipating in excess of $400 million for the year 2003.
Free cash flow, while not linear, is positive with a negative $6 million in 2000, to $69 million in 2001 and $25 million in 2002. Current cash reported at $65.1 million with $145.9 million other current assets dwarfing the liabilities of $74.7 million in current liabilities and $6.0 million of long term debt per Morningstar.com.
The company has a market cap of $1.69 Billion with 33.3 million shares outstanding and almost all float with 33.2 million shares reported as float. The p/e is a reasonable 20.75 per Yahoo...and there are only 1.48 million shares out short...representing only 2.01 trading days of shorts....a new thing I like to look at since it is reported right in Yahoo Profile!
This is another great generic drug company that is worth your while. I do not anticipate buying any shares right now since I already own AAII and ELAB...(see my trading portfolio on bobsadviceforstocks.tripod.com)....
Have a GREAT Wednesday....only two more days to the weekend! Thanks for stopping by and come back and visit often. Please feel free to drop me a line with any question, comment, or as I always like to read...words of encouragement at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Tuesday, 15 July 2003
July 15, 2003 EPIQ Systems, Inc. (EPIQ)
O.K. so EVERYONE has heard of Harley Davidson and what is the point of stopping by a FREE internet site by some dude named BOB who writes about stocks you have already heard of. O.K. I hear you. How about this one, EPIQ Systems.
I have never heard of this one before two minutes ago when I came across it on the list of top gainers and NO I do not of course own any shares.
EPIQ, according to CNN.Money, "develops, markets, licenses and supports internally developed and proprietary software products for Chapter 7 and 13 bankruptcy trustees, and other users of the federal bankruptcy system." And NO DUDE Chapter 7 and 13 are NOT the best chapters in the new Harry Potter Book!
EPIQ had a great day today closing at $19.62 up $1.82 or 10.22% on the day. Apparently someone elses BAD news is EPIQ's GOOD news! They signed on to Mirant's recent bankruptcy filing and apparently are participating in Loral Space & Communication's bankruptcy. Boy is THIS a BAD NEWS BEAR stock!
On April 28, 2003, EPIQ reported results for the first quarter ending March 31, 2003, with revenue growth of 63% over the prior year ($14.6 million vs $9.0 million in 2002), and gross profit was $10.2 million compared to $6.1 million. Net income, however, was not quite as exciting on a per share basis at $.13 vs $.12 last year.
Morningstar.com shows a steady growth of this small company from revenue of $8.4 million in 1997, $11.5 million in 1998, $14.8 million in 1999, $23.3 million in 2000, $30.1 million in 2001 and $38.0 million in 2002. Extrapolating the present quarter revenue rate of $14.6 million would get us just shy of $60 million of revenue in 2003.
Free cash flow, while small, has improved nicely from $1 million in 2000, to $3 million in 2001 and $9 million in 2002.
The company is loaded with cash (relatively speaking!) with $15.9 million of cash and $11.9 million of other current assets, per Morningstar.com, with only $6.7 million in current liabilities and $5.6 million in other long term liabilities.
The market cap is a small $314.7 Million with only 17.7 million shares outstanding. There are 14.7 million shares that float. The p/e is a moderate 32.78. There are 933 thousands shares short as of 6/9/03 which represents 3.81 days of trading so does not appear to be a good candidate for a short squeeze IMHO.
This is an INTERESTING stock which has GREAT potential to rise nicely. They are small but steadily growing and improving their financial picture. I don't own any shares but would be happy to add some to my portfolio if the opportunity should arise!
Thanks again for stopping by. Be sure to skim through the loads of other posts. I think you will find them informative and certainly the price is right on this site!
July15, 2003 Harley-Davidson (HDI)
No, I am not a biker kind of investor! Frankly, I confess I have NEVER ridden a motorcycle but still remember Dennis Hopper's performance along with Jack Nicholson in Easy Rider. Boy does THAT date me. Anyhow, enough of reminiscing...
Harley-Davidson (HDI) had a great day today. Even in a down market, Harley 'cycled' to a nice gain today closing at $43.68 up $1.89 or 4.52% on the day.
Harley is a perennial growth stock favorite but I do not own any shares and haven't looked closely at the numbers until today. Last quarter's results were reported on April 16, 2003, and Harley related that revenue for the quarter ending March 30, 2003, was $1.1 billion compared to $927.8 million in the year-ago quarter...a 20.0 percent increase. (as reported in Yahoo.com).
Diluted earnings per share were $.61 a 56.4% increase compared to last year's $.39.
It looks like the street is anticipating good results to be released soon for the second quarter as it is now almost exactly 3 months since the last results were reported....that might explain the rise today.
Looking at Morningstar, we see the beautiful linear improvement in revenue starting with $2.1 billion in 1998, $2.6 billion in 1999, $3.1 billion in 2000, $3.6 billion in 2001, $4.3 billion in 2002, and extrapolating from the first quarter we would have at least $4.4 billion in 2003.
Free cash flow is quite impressive improving from $362 million in 2000, to $466 billion in 2001, $456 million in 2002 and $610 million in the 'trailing twelve months' per Morningstar.com.
The company has plenty of cash at $890.7 million with $1.45 billion in other current assets. Current liabilities are a generous $954.4 million with $648 million in long-term liabilities. There is plenty of cash to cover the debt but the debt level is certainly not insignificant.
Harley has a market cap of $12.6 billion per Yahoo with 302.3 million shares outstanding and 301.6 million shares floating. There is small dividend of $.16/share with a yield of 0.38%.
The p/e is a relatively reasonable 19.71, especially with $2.95/share in cash. There are 19.3 million shares out short as of 6/9/03 which represents 7.17 trading days....so not quite enough for a huge short squeeze...but if the stock starts rising....there may be a few short sellers out there scrambling to cover.
I like Harley even if their cycles ARE a bit noisy.
They are a classic growth company and the numbers at first glance certainly do not show a marked slowdown in the growth of this company. A nice company to add to your portfolio!
Regards to all of my friends! Thanks for stopping by. Please contact me at email@example.com if you have any questions, comments or words of encouragements!
Please stop by again and share this site with your friends!
Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:32 PM CDT
Updated: Tuesday, 15 July 2003 9:34 PM CDT
Monday, 14 July 2003
July 14, 2003 Capital One Financial Corp. (COF)
You know when the market is running our kind of companies show up on the list! Now this is a bit of a different stock than some of our little dot.com's and fast growing tech stocks. This is a large cap financial services company....but for the most part fits our criteria nicely!
I do not own any shares of this company and nobody in my family owns shares but I am sure I make some monthly payments to this Bank for one or more credit cards in my family!
COF is having a nice day today trading at $55* on the day. This is a BIG company with an $11.7 Billion market cap. 226.4 Million shares are outstanding with 225.1 million floating. They pay a small dividend of $.11 per share for a yield of 0.21% (all of this from Yahoo.)
For big banks this isn't THAT big...fyi Citigroup (C) has a market cap of $237 Billion with 5 billion shares outstanding....about 20 times the size of this financial services company!.
Capital One Financial, per CNN.Money, is "the holding company for Capital One Bank, offers a variety of credit card and financial services to customers."
According to Yahoo news, Capitol One reported first quarter results on April 21, 2003. Earnings for the first quarter were $309.1 million or $1.35/share vs. $188.0 million or $.83/share for the prior year. COF also reported SEQUENTIAL improvement in earnings with $239.7 million or $1.05 in the fourth quarter of 2002.
Morningstar.com shows a nice linear growth in revenue with $2.6 billion reported in 1998, $4.0 billion in 1999, $5.5 billion in 2000, $7.4 billion in 2001, and $9.6 billion in 2002.
Banks have different financial reporting than other companies and I will not venture into this except to say that the company appears to be showing continued financial health and you might wish to look at the first quarter earnings news as reported on Yahoo at http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030421/dcm040_1.html
Looks like a nice financial if that is what you are in the market for!
Happy Monday everyone. The thing I love about Monday is that we have all those trading days to look forward to!
Regards to all of my friends!
Bob *on the original post I listed $33.66 the FNF price below...rechecked price based on time of original post....just wanted to clarify this!
Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 12:34 PM CDT
Updated: Friday, 18 July 2003 8:48 PM CDT
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