Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Friday, 8 August 2003
August 8, 2003 eSpeed, Inc. (ESPD)
O.K. got lots of stuff to do this afternoon so this may be my last post of the day. I mean I don't charge much for this service, so what do you expect? I should just stay glued to my computer screen and hash out stuff for you all day long? Just kidding!
Anyhow, came across what must be considered a dot.com again. Some of these are turning into real businesses! eSpeed, Inc. (ESPD) "...operates global interactive electronic marketplaces that enable the trading of financial instruments and other products instantaneously, more effectively and at lower cost than traditional trading methods." according to CNN.Money. ESPD announced today that they will be having their earnings "call" on August 14th..and I guess that anticipation of good results was enough to fire up the stock. ESPD is currently trading at $18.98, up $2.17 or 12.91% on the day.
Since we don't have the latest earnings...which are to be reported in six days...let's take a look at the latest REPORTED earnings....came out on May 12, 2003. First quarter revenue 2003 increased 13% from last year to $34.0 million from $30.0 million. Now get this, this is not their revenue, but contained withing this quarterly report is an indication of the volume of transactions....electronic "volume" (not revenue or earnings) was $6.8 trillion....yes TRILLION in the first quarter. (How many zero's is that?)....anyhow their net income was $.17/share compared to $.10 last year.
This is a very new company and Morningstar.com shows revenue of $34.7 million in 1999, $91.0 million in 2000, $125 million in 2001, and $139 million in 2002.
Free cash flow has turned positive (I guess you could stay they have stopped 'burning' cash...one of those problems for those miserable dot.com's): ($22) million in 2000, ($9) million in 2001, $49 million in 2002 and $37 million in the trailing twelve months.
Looking at the balance sheet as reported on Morningstar.com we find this company LOADED with cash with $175.1 million in cash on hand reported compared to a small $16.0 million in current liabilities and $100,000 in long-term liabilities.
Yahoo.com shows this company with a market cap of $929.0 million with 55.2 million shares outstanding and only 17.7 million of them float. No dividend is paid. The p/e ratio is a downright reasonable 21.02, and as of 7/8/03 there were 1.03 million shares or 5.8% of the float out short...a decrease from 1.06 million the prior month. This represents 2.49 trading days worth of volume.
Overall this is a very interesting, if slightly (?) speculative position. Much may depend on the results of next week's earnings report and if this stock is anything like other stocks...then stock may very well sell-off short-term on the earnings news if it merely hits expectations. But longer-term, this stock is very interesting, and if I had some free cash...lol...I would buy a few shares! Needless to say, I don't own any shares of this company nor do any members of my family!
Regards! Have a great weekend everyone. I will try to update the trading portfolio and stock prices later this weekend.
August 8, 2003 Emulex Corp. (ELX)
Hello Friends! Finally, a nice steady day in the market....so far....Looking at the lists of best gainers I came across Emulex. This was an old favorite of mine when I was still blindly investing in tech stocks before the bubble broke...and Emulex is still cranking out growth!
Emulex (ELX)is trading currently at $22.46 up $1.04 or 4.86% on the day. According to Cnn.money, Emulex "...is a designer, developer and supplier of a broad line of fibre channel host adapters, hubs, ASICs and software products that enhance access to and storage of electronic data and applications." It has been awhile (!) since I looked at stocks that did ASICs....hmmm...whatever they are!
The stock is up today after releasing an earnings report after the close yesterday. According to Yahoo.com 'news' on ELX, revenues were up 3% sequentially and 16% from last year, growing to a record $81.8 million. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $.23 for the quarter up 44% from last year. (Non-GAAP also explained as 'pro forma'...I presume this involves continuing operations....but then again...I am not an accountant and would prefer to have a 'cleaner' number to work with.)
Morningstar.com shows sequential revenue growth from $59 million in 1998, $68.5 million in 1999, $139.8 million in 2000, $245.3 million in 2001, and $255 million in 2002. Extrapolating the current quarter's revenues would get us somewhere 'north' of $320 million in 2003.
The company is solvent, generating $39 million in free cash flow in 2000, $45 million in 2001, $80 million in 2002, and $78 million in the trailing twelve months.
Looking at the Assets and Liabilities as reported on Morningstar, we find that there is LOADS of cash with $393.7 million in cash reported....way more than current liabilities of $77.8 million and long-term liabilities of $215.0 million combined. In addition Emulex reports $142.5 million in other current assets.
Looking at Yahoo.com we find that the company has a sizeable market cap of $1.76 Billion with 82.3 million shares outstanding and 79.1 million that float. No dividend is paid. The p/e is a bit steep (for me) at 51.86 and there are 8.6 million shares out short as of 7/8/03, representing 4.10 days of average trading.
The stock looks nice but is not a big bargain. However if this current growth continues, this stock may well be positioned for a nice move upward and is deserving of your attention. Needless to say, I do not own any shares of this company.
Thanks for stopping by and be sure to visit often. If you like this site, be sure to link it to your site....if we can get some links like that...we will get noticed on Google...:). Drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org if you have any questions or comments!
Thursday, 7 August 2003
August 7, 2003 Jos. A. Bank Clothiers, Inc. (JOSB)
Not too many picks for our board today...Jos. A. Bank Clothiers does seem to fit the bill. JOSB had a great day along with some other retailers like Best Buy for it seems the consumer is still alive....even if he is not refinancing his house...he is spending at the Mall!
JOSB closed at $44.16 today, up $5.31 or 13.67%. According to CNN.Money, "Jos. A. Bank Clothiers is a retailer, cataloger, and manufacturer of men's tailored and casual clothing and accessories."
As I have mentioned elsewhere in the BLOG, retailers are often measured in terms of 'same store sales growth'. This allows an observer to assess whether the existing stores are providing the growth engine or whether the company is giving the 'appearance' of growth by opening new outlets while existing outlets are actually performing at a less robust pace. In this case, getting to the point!, JOSB reported that its total sales for the month ending August 2, 2003, increased 31.6% to a record $17.5 million compared to $13.3 million in July, 2002. More importantly, same store sales increased 19.4% (!), while combined catalog and internet sales increased 25.4%, when compared to the prior-year month.
Let me repeat for emphasis, JOSB reported same store sales growth of 19.4%. This is fabulous!
Last May 20, 2003, JOSB reported their latest earnings report overall and announced earnings per share of $.30 for the first quarter of 2003 compared with $.25/share for the same period in 2002. Total sales increased 11.6% to $62.3 million compared with $55.8 million in the first quarter of 2002. During the first quarter, comparable store sales increased only 0.6%.
Morningstar.com shows a steady growth in revenue from $172.2 million in 1998, $187.2 million in 1999, $193.5 million in 2000, $206.3 million in 2001, $211.0 million in 2002 and $232.8 million in the trailing twelve months.
Free cash flow has been at best erratic with $7 million in 2001, $(12) million in 2002, $12 million in 2003, and $(11) million in the trailing twelve months.
The company has plenty of liquidity with $1.4 million in casha nd $108.7 million in other current assets compared to $56.5 million in current liabilities and $27.4 million in long-term liabilities.
Yahoo.com shows that this stock has a relatively small $240.9 million market cap with only 6.20 million shares outstanding and 5.00 million that float. No dividend is paid. The p/e is a reasonable 24.53 and the price to sales is also quite reasonable imho at 1.11. As of July 8, 2003, there are 829,000 shares out short representing 3.32 days of average trading volume.
I like this stock as much for its steady revenue growth as the superb same store sales growth figure just repeated. The p/e is reasonable, the price/sales ratio is fair, and there aren't many shares outstanding suggesting lots of room for growth.
Thanks for stopping by and please leave me a note a email@example.com if you have any questions or comments.
Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 4:23 PM CDT
Updated: Thursday, 7 August 2003 4:38 PM CDT
Trading Transparency Zoran (ZRAN)
Market came to a close today...Dow moved up 64.71 but Nasdaq down .50 to 1652.18. ZRAN closed at $24.24 down $1.22 on the day or 4.79%. By the time it got down to $24.69, I was down about 8.3% on my investment so out it went and we sold 200 shares to close out our position in our trading portfolio. I don't see any news to explain the drop...but when it hits our 8% loss...out it goes. Our only other stock in jeopardy is Websense (WBSN) keeping at a 5.77% loss in our trading account. WBSN closed at $19.20 today up 0.03 or 0.16%.
Wednesday, 6 August 2003
August 6, 2003 FTI Consulting, Inc. (FCN)
Yesterday I couldn't find any stocks that fit our criteria, now they are literally coming out of our ears. (What an analogy huh?) This REALLY must be some sort of bullish signal when out kind of stocks start showing up in droves in the top percentage movers....don't you think? Time will tell...
Anyhow, hopefully the last post for the day, phew, FTI Consulting, Inc. (FCN),is having a great day trading at $21.90 up $1.03 on the day or 4.94%. The graph of this stock looks horrendous with a slide from almost $40 in April to its current level just over $20. Quite frankly, browsing through the news, I don't really see why the stock is down...but let's concentrate on the fundamentals:
"FTI Consulting is a multi-disciplined consulting firm with practices in the areas of bankruptcy and financial restructuring, litigation consulting and engineering/scientific investigation." per CNN.Money.
On July 23, 2003, per NYTimes on the Web FTI reported OUTSTANDING financial results: for the quarter revenue was $94.5 million an increase of 137.4% compared with $39.8 million in 2002. Income from continuing operations grew 213.6% to $18.5 million from $5.9 million in the comparable period the prior year. On a per share basis, earnings on a diluted basis grew 144.4% to $.44/share from $.18/share last year.
Morningstar.com shows revenue growing from $36 million in 1998, $49 million 1999, $96 million 2000, $122 million 2001, $224 million in 2002, and $288 million in the trailing twelve months.
Free cash flow has grown nicely from $9 million in 2000, $31 million in 2001, $69 million in 2002 and $88 million in the trailing twelve months.
Assets and Liabilities look nice with $75.5 million of cash, enough to pay off current liabilities of $64.1 million, and $81.0 million in other current assets, more than enough to cover the long term debt of $29.8 million.
This is a relatively small company with a market cap of $871.7 million, 41.8 million shares and 23.4 million that float. No dividend is paid. The short interest is interesting as there are 7.64 Million shares out short (!) representing 32.6% of the float (!!). This represents 10.26 days of average trading. This is actually bullish for this stock as we may see a short "squeeze" where traders are frantically buying shares trying to cover their borrowed shares already sold.
Anyhow, only downside, imho, is the recent graph of the stock price. The large number of shorts on this suggests they see something I don't. But would suggest that this may represent an awesome buying opportunity. If I get some free cash, this might just be one to consider a new investment!
Regards to all of my friends!
August 6, 2003 Zimmer Holdings, Inc. (ZMH)
The market started off lower, then the bulls stepped in...will it hold? Anyhow, all of these GREAT companies are showing up on our screens.
I do not own any shares of Zimmer but my wife owns I believe 8 shares that are the result of a spinoff of Zimmer from Bristol Myers Squibb. Currently, Zimmer is trading at $49.79 up $2.49 or 5.26% on the day.
According to CNN.Money, Zimmer Holdings, Inc. (ZMH) "...is engaged in the design, development, manufacturing and marketing of orthopaedic reconstructive implants and fracture management products, including artificial knees, hips and other joints."
On July 23, 2003, Zimmer reported (per NYTimes on the Web) 2nd quarter results: Net sales increased 19% (14% adjusted for currency fluctuations) to $411 million. Net earnings increased 35% to $89.0 million, and diluted earnings per share increased 32% to $.45 vs. $.34 in 2002.
Morningstar.com shows a beautiful series of bar graphs representing annual revenues increasing from $861 million in 1998, $939 million in 1999, $1.04 billion in 2000, $1.17 billion in 2001, $1.37 billion in 2002 and $1.44 billion in the trailing twelve months.
This corporation is spinning off lots of free cash: $203 million in 2000, $117 million 2001, $187 million in 2002, and $232 million in the trailing twelve months.
The assets and liabilities look nice too with $33.4 million of cash and $541.3 million of other current assets balanced by $342.7 million of current liabilities and $93.4 million of long-term liabilities.
This is a large company with a market cap of $9.29 billion with 196.5 million shares outstanding with 195.8 million of them that float. There is no dividend, there are 5.84 million shares out short representing 3.0% of the float and 4.19 days of average trading.
Overall, this company looks like an excellent investment quite worthy of your consideration. Perhaps a conservative investment based on its size but the bottom line looks excellent and it fits our criteria!
August 6, 2003 Pulte Homes (PHM)
I really don't WANT to post another home builder after getting by fingers burnt with the spike in interest rates....but there it is...Pulte Homes shows up on the largest percentage gainers. And what is a guy gonna do? I mean rules are rules and there is this homebuilder staring me in the face with all the great numbers that mean we should consider it. So we shall. Maybe the rebound on the homebuilders means that interest rates are temporarily too high...and shall be declining short term.
Pulte, a stock that I do not own any shares, "...is a holding company whose subsidiaries are engaged in homebuilding and financial services businesses." according to Cnn.money.
The stock currently is trading at $63.86 up $3.31 or 5.47% on the day. On July 24, 2003, Pulte reported their second quarter results: net income increased 35% to a record $122.0 million compared to $90.4 million for the same quarter last year. Earnings per diluted share were $1.95 representing a 34% increase over prior year earnings per diluted share of $1.45. Consolidated revenues were $2.0 billion, a 16% increase over prior year results of $1.7 billion.
Morningstar.com shows an equally pretty picture of revenue growth: $2.9 billion in 1998, $3.8 billion in 1999, $4.2 billion i 2000, $5.4 billion in 2001, $7.4 billion in 2002 and $7.6 billion in the trailing twelve months.
Unfortunately, there are no cash flow numbers posted on Pulte on Morningstar.com.
Pulte is fairly flush with cash with $868.7 million in cash, $4.6 billion of other current assets to offset $1.7 billion in current liabilities and $2.25 billion in long-term liabilities.
The company has a market cap of $3.7 billion with 61.1 million shares outstanding and 42.8 million of them that float. There is a small dividend of $.16/share (0.26%), the p/e is a downright dirt-cheap 7.61, and there are 2.28 million shares out short on this company representing only 2.60 days of trading.
I like the numbers of this homebuilder a lot. I just am a bit leary if that sector is a bit overdone...but the numbers cry out for attention!
Have a great Wednesday! Thanks for stopping by.
August 6, 2003 DRS Technologies, Inc. (DRS)
O.K. so I wasn't too excited about my last post. (Sunrise). This one I like a bit more and IS a stock that I own and have in my trading account.
DRS Technologies "...is a diversified, high-technology company serving government and commercial niche markets worldswide. The Company develops and manufactures a variety of systems and components used for the processing and storage of data." according to Cnn.money.
DRS is having a good day trading at $27.98 up $1.47 or 5.55% on the day. Like many of our recent posts, the stock jumped on news of its first quarter earnings that was reported yesterday, August 5, 2003.
Briefly, according to the NYTimes on the Web, Fiscal 2004 first quarter revenues were $167.2 million, a 27% increase over revenues of $131.2 million for last years first quarter. Operating income was $16.4 million representing a 29% higher income than the $12.7 million reported in 2003.
Net earnings were $7.3 million or $.32/diluted share an increase of 34% from last year's $5.4 million net income or an increase of 3% ver last year's $.31/share reported in 2003.
(Diluted shares outstanding were 30% higher at 22.9 million due to a 5.5 million share offering in 2003.
The Morningstar.com site: http://quicktake.morningstar.com/Stock/Financials.asp?Country=USA&Symbol=DRS&sktab=fiin&hsection=
shows a beautiful series of revenue reports from $180.8 million in 1998, $265.8 million in 1999, $391.5 million in 2000, $428 million in 2001, $517 million in 2002 and $676 million in 2003.
Free cash flow has been steady at $18 million in 2001, $14 million in 2002, and $30 million in 2003.
Assets and liabilities not quite as pretty but fairly well balanced with $95.9 million in cash on hand with $293.4 million in other current assets balanced by $289.3 million in current liabilities and $244.7 million in long-term liabilities.
The market cap is $595.3 million with 22.5 million shares outstanding with 22.2 million that float. No dividend is paid. The p/e is a reasonable 16.84 and there are 1.19 million shares out short representing 5.4% of float or 6.46 trading days based on an average day of 184,000 shares trading. (data per Yahoo as of 7/8/03).
Overall, for a defense contractor, this is a pretty picture and worth your consideration. It has already gotten my attention as I bought some shares earlier this year (see my trading account listed elsewhere on bobsadviceforstocks.tripod.com.
Regards to All!
August 6, 2003 Sunrise Senior Living, Inc. (SRZ)
Another bad day in the market. And today they are taking down the HMO's. We have a couple on our list and if you own any, remember to keep a tight 8% stop on your losses. In my trading account, I haven't hit any 8% loss limits with this correction but I am close on Zoran with about a 6.5% loss. Goes down a few more pennies and it will hit the stop.
Anyhow, without giving up all hope and optimism...we are back at work here. Sunrise Senior Living, Inc., is actually having a nice day and fits almost all of our criteria. Currently it is trading at $23.95 up $.62 on the day. They announced their second quarter earnings today and managed to support the stock price in an otherwise poor trading day.
Sunrise reported that second quarter earnings per share were $.67, a 43 percent increase over the same period in 2002. Revenues rose 179% to $334.5 million from $119.9 million in the same quarter last year.
Morningstar.com shows a history of steady revenue growth from $89.9 million in 1997, $171 million in 1998, $255 million in 1999, $345 million in 2000, $428 million in 2001 and $506 million in 2002.
Free cash flow has improved recently from an unimpressive $5 million in 2000, $3 million in 2001, ($1) million in 2002 and a positive $58 million in the trailing twelve months as reported on Morningstar.
The assets/liabilities picture is a little disturbing with $72.2 million in cash and $77.9 million in other current assets with $195.8 million in current liabilities and $534.3 million in long-term liabilities.
While most of the picture looks o.k., the heavy debt picture makes me a little unenthusiastic about this selection. If you need an investment in this arena, this might be a nice selection. Otherwise, like me, you might just wish to pass. Have a great Wednesday!
Monday, 4 August 2003
August 4, 2003 Atrion Corporation (ATRI)
Last one for the day! Atrion Corporation (ATRI). I have never even HEARD of this corporation before finding it on the list of greatest percentage gainers. Yet it does seem to fit the bill.
Needless to say, I do not own any shares of ATRI.
Atrion, according to CNN.Money "...is a holding company that designs, develops, manufactures, markets, sells and distributes medical products and components." ATRI had a nice day today, closing at $34.70 up $2.68 or 8.37% on the day.
On July 30, 2003, Atrion reported their second quarter results: revenues were up 9% and earnings per share from continuing operations were up 29% compared to the second quarter of 2002.
Morningstar.com shows a steady growth in revenue from $43.4 million in 1998, $49.9 million in 1999, $51.4 million in 2000, $57.6 million in 2001 and $59.5 million in 2002.
Free Cash flow has gradually improved from $4 million in 2000, to $6 million in 2001 and $7 million in 2002.
The Balance Sheet on Morningstar shows only a little cash at $700,000 with $21.8 million in other current assets balanced against $6.4 million of current liabilities and $11.2 million in long-term liabilities.
Atrion is a very small company with only a $53.4 million market cap with 1.67 million shares outstanding and 1.20 million that float! The p/e is a very reasonable 13.31. There are no shares reported out short as of 7/8/03.
This is an interesting situation. Numbers are good and the company is tiny. Sometimes with the small float, a little buying pressure can create tremendous upward price movement....then again, if something goes wrong, the average trading volume is 1,000 shares....and it may be harder to unload shares due to the limited liquidity of the stock.
Good luck! And thanks for stopping by! Drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org if you have any questions or comments.
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