Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Sunday, 7 September 2003
"How are we doing?" A look back on the week of July 21, 2003.
We were busy picking stocks this week. On July 21st I selected Simpson (SSD) at a price of $40.75. SSD closed on 9/5/03 at $44.14, a gain of $3.39 or a gain of 8.3% to date. DSP Group (DSPG) was selected on 7/21/03 at $25.23. Currently, as of 9/5/03, DSPG is at $28.10, a gain of $2.87 or a gain of 11.4%. Finally, on 7/21/03, IDEXX Lab was selected (IDXX) at $38.29. As of 9/5/03, IDXX was trading at $41.60, a gain of $3.31 or a gain of 8.6%.
July 22, 2003, was a day for two selections: Cognizant Tech (CTSH) at $30.22 and Vital Images (VTAL) at $21.66. CTSH closed on 9/5/03 at $38.77, a gain of $8.55 or a gain of 28.3%. VTAL closed at $23.54 on 9/5/03 for a gain of $1.88 or a gain of 8.7%. Recall that these gains or losses are all over a period of only 5 weeks.
On July 23, 2003, only QLTI was selected at $15.39. QLTI closed on 9/5/03 at $13.51. This represents a loss of $(1.88) or (12.2)%.
On July 24, 2003, Columbia Sportswear (COLM) was selected at $52.00, Sierra Healthcare (SIE) was selected at $27.09, and Fair Isaac (FIC) was picked at $55.42. As of 9/5/03, COLM closed at $51.90 for a loss of $.10 or a loss of (.2)%. SIE closed at $20.55 for a loss of $(6.54) or (24.1)%. FIC closed at $59.99 for a gain of $4.57 or a gain of 8.2%.
Finally, on 7/26/03, actually on a Saturday, I wrote up Zoran (ZRAN) which closed the prior day at $27.28. Currently ZRAN closed on 9/5/03 at $25.50 for a loss of $(1.78) or (6.5)%.
In summary, during the week of 7/21/03, I made ten selections which during the five subsequent weeks resulted in six stocks with gains ranging from 8.2% to 28.3% and four stocks with losses ranging from (.2)% to (24.1)%. The average for the ten issues was a gain of 2.99%. Overall, not too bad for a short period of time we have observed these issues.
Thanks again for stopping by! I hope the above was helpful. I try to be objective as I assess these issues and like to look back and see how they are initially doing. It will be interesting to look back on them after six months or a year!
Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 12:33 AM CDT
Updated: Sunday, 7 September 2003 9:45 AM CDT
Saturday, 6 September 2003
September 6, 2003 Interpore International Purchase price
Looking through the past week's activity, getting ready to post an update, I realized I didn't post a price on the BONZ posting on 9/4/03. Since I DID purchase shares that same day, I will use my purchase price of $17.50 as our price for the posting. Thanks for bearing with me! Regards again to all of my friends and visitors here! Bob
Friday, 5 September 2003
September 5, 2003 "update"
Stocks are selling off mostly in response to the lousy job report with the loss of 93,000 jobs....but mostly the stocks sell off because they are overextended. I do not see any new stocks that fit our screening....so have a great weekend everyone....Bob
Thursday, 4 September 2003
September 4, 2003 "Trading Transparency BONZ for LWAY"
As indicated in the latest entry below, I did not like the way LWAY was trading, and down 4%, I went ahead and pulled the plug...motivated partially by my desire to create a position in BONZ, of which I purchased 300 shares. Thanks for stopping by! Bob
September 4, 2003 Interpore International, Inc. (BONZ)
O.K. I apologize. I jumped the gun on this one. Just bought 300 shares for my trading account after clearing out LWAY for a 4% loss...this one looks nice to me...a little like EXAC.
Interpore International (BONZ) is "...a medical device company with a complementary combination of spinal implant and orthobiologic technologies" according to money.cnn.com.
Their last quarter results were announced on July 17, 2003, which, according to the NYTimes on the Web, for the second quarter ending June 30, 2003, including a $1.1 million royalty payment from DePuy AcroMed, total revenues were $18.4 million, a 25% increase from the $14.7 million in the same quarter in 2002. Net product sales rose to a record $17.3 million up 18% from $14.7 million in 2002. Net income was $2.4 million or $.13/share compared to $651,000 in 2002 or $.04/diluted share.
Morningstar shows nice sequential revenue growth of $30.2 million in 1998, $38.9 million in 1999, $44.3 million in 2000, $51.3 million in 2001, $58.9 million in 2002....and extrapolating the current quarter should get us into the neighborhood of $70 million for 2003.
Free cash flow, while erratic, has recently turned positive with $4 million in 2000, 0 in 2001, $(12) million in 2002, and $8 million in the trailing twelve months. The assets/liabilities picture looks nice with $11.9 million in cash reported, more than enough to cover the $11.3 million in current liabilities with NO long-term liabilities reported. In addition, BONZ has, per Morningstar.com, an additional $47.7 million in other current assets.
According to Yahoo.com, the market cap is a small $283.0 million with 17.8 million shares outstanding and 15.7 million of them that float. No dividend is reported. According to Yahoo, the p/e is a reasonable 18.56 with a 4.38 price/sales. Return on assets is a strong 19.19%, and return on equity equally impressive at 22.08%. There are 884,000 shares out short as of 8/8/03 per Yahoo representing 2.54 trading days.
I like this stock a lot. Needless to say, because I just moments ago sold my LWAY, although recently purchased, is acting a bit sick....and bot 300 of BONZ in its place.
Thanks for stopping by! Be sure to leave comments here (is that difficult...nobody has left any comments thus far...maybe it is impossible lol)....or drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement.
September 4, 2003 "Trading Transparency" HIBB
Going through our lists in the trading account, I realized that HIBB is now sporting a 74% gain. I have already sold 50 shares of HIBB on 5/30/03 and today I sold another 50 shares at $25.42 with an average cost of $14.70. We left 175 shares in the account. Still not much on the greatest percentage gainers to interest us. COO shows up as does PLMD..but these are already on our list. Bob
September 4, 2003 "Trading Transparency COO"
Haven't seen much on the lists today that fit our criteria. Cooper (COO) jumped nicely on an earnings report. With an over 50% gain on COO, I sold an additional 50 shares at $42.18 with a cost of $27.12 puchased a little over 6 months ago. Now have 100 COO remaining and will try to hold tight unless another big move on the upside. Bob
Wednesday, 3 September 2003
September 3, 2003 "Trading transparency"
Quick update. I sold 150 shares of RAD which I bought as a value stock last year before starting this earnings-based purchasing. I bought 200 shares of TTWO with outstanding earnings report, etc., see below. Good luck with all of your trades! Bob
September 3, 2003 Take-Two Interactive Sft. (TTWO)
How about a good game software company? This would seem to be a risky business but then again, maybe all companies have risk! Anyhow, Take-Two (TTWO) "...designs, develops, publishes, markets and distributes interactive software games for use on multimedia personal computer and video game console platforms" according to money.cnn.com. TTWO is having a GREAT day today trading as I write at $35.75 up $6.00 or 20.17% on the day.
As with so many of the stocks we cover on this site, TTWO jumped today on positive earnings news: net sales for the third quarter ended July 31, 2003, were $155.6 million a 27% increase over $122.5 million for the same period a year ago. Net income was $7.7 million, an increase of 60% over last year's $4.8 million with diluted net income per share of $.18, a 50% increase over the $.12 reported last year. All of this was reported on the NYTimes on the Web.
Morningstar.com shows a history of revenue growth from 1998 when $194 million in revenue, $305 million in 1999, $364 million in 2000, $449 million in 2001, $794 million in 2002.
Free cash flow has been solid as reported on Morningstar: $(57) million in 2000, $19 million in 2001, $135 million in 2002 and $130 million in the trailing twelve months.
Looking at assets/liabilities on Morningstar we find this company sitting solidly in a cash position with $188.4 million in cash on hand more than enough to cover both the current liabilities of $129.7 million and the small $6.3 million in long-term liabilities combined. In ADDITION, TTWO has $205.1 million in other current assets.
TTWO has a market cap, per Yahoo, of $1.24 billion with 41.7 million shares outstanding and 40.8 million of them float. No dividend is paid. Considering the growth, the company is downright cheap with a p/e of 13.43 and a price/sales of 1.31.
To top it off, there are LOTS of shares out there short, for me a BULLISH indicator. As of 8/8/03, per Yahoo, there were 8.77 million shares out short representing 21.5% of the float or 10.62 days of average trading volume.
In summary, this stock looks GREAT. They have steady revenue growth, an outstanding latest quarter, gobs of free cash flow, lots of cash easily covering their liabilities, a cheap p/e, and a low price/sales ratio and lots of people betting AGAINST this stock who will need to buy shares to eventually cover their short positions. In fact, if I can find some cash, I may very well buy some shares soon.
As of now, I do not own any shares of TTWO.
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Tuesday, 2 September 2003
"How are we doing?" A look back on the week of July 14, 2003
We were busy the week of 7/14/03 making lots of stock suggestions. On 7/14/03 we discussed COF at $55 (closed today, 9/2/03, at $55.56 a gain of $.56 or a gain of 1%), FNF at $33.66 (closed 9/2/03 at $29.31 a loss of $4.35 or (12.9%)), and ELON at $17.05 (closing today at $15.21, a loss of $1.84 or (10.8)%).
Tuesday, 7/15/03, we selected EPIQ at $19.62 (closed today at $18.73, a loss of $.89 or a loss of (4.5)%), and HDI (Harley) at $43.68 (closed 9/2/03 at $49.01, a gain of $5.33 or a gain of 12.2%.
On Wednesday, 7/16/03 we had one pick: PRX at $52.83. PRX closed today (9/2/03) at $57.10, a gain of $4.27 or 8.1%.
Thursday, 7/17/03, we selected ESI at $36.13 (ESI closed on 9/2/03 at $43.92, a gain of $7.79 or 21.6%), and CLSR at $23.40 (CLSR closed on 9/2/03 at $24.90, a gain of $1.50 or 6.4%).
Friday 7/18/03, we selected BIO at $60.15 (BIO closed at $51.65 today a loss of $8.50 or (14.1)%), and HANS at $5.38 (HANS closed today, 9/2/03, at $6.00, a gain of $.62 or a gain of 11.5%.
In summary, we picked 10 stocks with results ranging from (12.9%) to 21.6% for an average of a gain of 1.85%. Nothing to write home about, but at least positive.
We will have to see how these stocks perform in the future! Thanks for stopping by.
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