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Sunday, 16 November 2003
"How are we doing?" A look back on the week of 9/22/03
Hello friends! Once again I will remind you to always remember to consult with your investment advisor as the stocks I discuss may or may not be a good idea for you!

I have been having a bit of a problem with the site builder program from Lycos, so we have not updated all of our picks and prices on the attached page. I will be working on that this week!

What I like to do on weekends is look back a bit and see if what we are picking has done well in the market. Only fair to check on what we write don't you think?

Two weekends ago we looked at the selections of 9/15/03. Last weekend we took a pass on posting so tonight I will look at the week of 9/22/03. You can view the actual selections by paging back on the calendar to the left of this blog and get to the mentioned days. That is how I knew which stocks to review right here!

On September 22, 2003 I posted two stocks: Bio-Reference Labs (BRLI) at $11.63 and TBC Corp. (TBCC) at $24.13. BRLI has actually done quite well (too bad I don't own any shares!) and closed Friday, 11/14/03 at $17.10. This is a gain of $5.47 or 47% in the past 7 weeks. TBCC has also done well since my posting (also I do not own any shares of this either shucks) and closed Friday, 11/14/03 at $29.00 for a gain of $4.87 or 20.2%.

September 23, 2003, was without any picks. On September 24, 2003, I selected America's Car-Mart (CRMT) at $29.61 and Multimedia Games (MGAM) at $34.30. CRMT closed Friday, 11/14/03, at $30.15 for a small gain of $.54 or 1.8%, and MGAM closed Friday, 11/14/03 at $42.80 for a gain of $8.50 or 24.8%.

On September 25, 2003, the WD-40 Company (WDFC) caught my eye at $31.20 and Cree, Inc. (CREE) at $22.16. WDFC closed Friday, 11/14/03, at $33.55 for a gain of $2.35 or 7.5%, and CREE closed on 11/14/03 at $17.99, for a LOSS of ($4.17) or (18.8%). I did not purchase and do not own any of these either.

Finally, on September 26, 2003, I picked Cherokee, Inc. (CHKE) at $20.90 and Abaxis, Inc. (ABAX) at $13.40. CHKE closed Friday, 11/14/03, at $21.75 for a small gain of $.85 or 4.1%, and ABAX closed Friday, 11/14/03, at $17.58 for a gain of $4.18 or 31.2%.

This was actually quite a good week with stocks gaining: 47%, 20.2%, 1.8%, 24.8%, 7.5%, 4.1%, and 31.2%, and one stock down with a loss of (18.8%). The average performance since posting about 7 weeks ago for these 8 stocks was a gain of 14.7%. Too bad I didn't buy any of them!

Thanks for stopping by! We will try to find some more picks next week for you to chew on. Also, if we get a chance, we have been up for a bit over 6 months now, so it will be fun to look at our picks from the "early days" and see how they have stood up. It has been easy picking these stocks these past six months since it has been a good market to do this. The true test will come as we enter a correction phase and get through that as well.

Anyway, thanks again for stopping by. Remember to consult with your investment advisor prior to taking ANY action on these stocks as they may or may not be suitable for you and may result in a significant loss of money!

If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:33 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
November 16, 2003 Problems Updating Site
Have tried a few times to update the main website regarding closing prices on recommended stocks and current trading portfolio and it seems that either MY computer or LYCOS computer is a bit on the fritz. I suppose it must be mine...will continue to work on the daily picks...but note that the rest of site is not updated yet. Sorry. Will keep working on this! Thanks for your understanding!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 3:34 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Sunday, 16 November 2003 3:33 PM CST
Friday, 14 November 2003
November 14, 2003 Medical Technology Systems (MPP)
Thanks for stopping by! As ALWAYS, please consult with your investment advisor before making any decisions based on what you read here because as I always remind you, I am an amateur, and the investments I present may lead to gains or losses and may or may not be appropriate for you!

Anyway, I found a SMALL company which looks interesting on the AMEX of all places! Medical Technology Systems (MPP) made the greatest percentage gainers list on the AMEX today closing at $6.00 up $.46 on the day or 8.30%.

According to money.cnn.com, MPP "...manufactures and sells proprietary packaging systems to pharmacies that dispense prescription medications for use by nursing homes and assisted living facilities."

On November 4, 2003, MPP reported their second quarter results for the quarter ended September 30, 2003. As reported from BUSINESS WIRE on the NYTimes on the Web, revenue for the second quarter increased 18% from $6.8 million last year to $8 million this year. Net income rose 62% to $381,000 or $.06/diluted share vs. $235,000 or $.04/diluted share last year.

Looking at Morningstar.com for the "5 year restated" results, we find that revenue, while erratic the past 10 years, has steadily increased the past 5 years from $15.1 million in 1999, $18.2 million in 2000, $21.5 million in 2001, $24.8 million in 2002 and $29.4 million in 2003.

Earnings/share have also been erratic from ($2.20)/share in 1999, peaking at $2.36/share in 2001 and dropping to $.23/share in 2003.

Free cash flow has been steady at $2 million since 2001, and the balance sheet shows $0.4 million in cash and $9.0 million in other current assets vs $5.0 million in current liabilities and $7.0 million in long-term debt.

Looking at "key statistics" on Yahoo.com, we find that this company has a TINY market cap of $26.43 million. The trailing p/e isn't bad at 21.74 and the forward p/e is even more reasonable (for fye March, 2005), at 11.31. There are only 4.40 million shares outstanding and 2.80 million of them float. No dividend is paid.

This is an interesting stock and you should know that I do not have any shares. However, the pricing isn't bad and I suspect if the revenue continues to grow, the stock will also be flying. The downside for me for this stock is the small price and the ease in which it can hit an 8% loss and be out of the picture.

Good luck investing! If you have any quesitons, please feel free to write me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 7:43 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Thursday, 13 November 2003
November 13, 2002 Medtronic (MDT)
Thanks again for stopping by! Each time I write, I want to again ask you to please check with your own investment advisor before making any decisions based on information on this site. I am an amateur and NOT an investment advisor.

Today, an old growth stock favorite of mine hit the best percentage gainers on the NYSE: Medtronic (MDT). I do not own any shares at this time but would love to have some in my portfolio eventually. MDT closed today at $46.39, up $2.02 or 4.55% on the day. Their business overlaps with St. Jude Medical, that I recently purchased in my trading account and that we listed here elsewhere on this website.

According to money.cnn.com, Medtronic "...is a medical technology company engaged in manufacturing and selling device-based medical therapies. The Company's product lines include cardiac rhythm management, vascular, cardiac surgery, neurological & diabetes & spinal and ENT."

Yesterday (11/12/03) MDT was reported on the NYTimes on the Web, picked up by BUSINESS WIRE, to release their second quarter results ended October 24, 2003. Quarterly revenues were $2.164 billion, up 14% over the $1.891 billion last year. (currency effects had a positive effect on revenue of $59.1 million) Earnings were $476.1 million or $.39/share an increase of 58% over the $301.7 million in net earnings and 56% above the $.25/share reported last year in the comparable period.

Checking Morningstar.com, we find sequential revenue growth from $4.2 billion in 1999, $5.0 billion in 2000, $5.6 billion in 2001, $6.4 billion in 2002, $7.7 billion in 2003 and $8.0 billion in the trailing twelve months.

Earnings per share have also grown nicely, although not quite as linear between 2000 and 2002, however they were $.39/share in 1999, and by 2002 were up to $1.30/share.

Free cash flow has been significant and growing from $1.39 billion in 2001, $1.2 billion in 2002, $1.7 billion in 2003 and $2.0 billion in the trailing twelve months!

A brief look at the Balance Sheet as reported by Morningstar shows $1.28 billion in cash, $3.09 billion in other current assets vs $1.8 billion in current liabilities and $2.6 billion in long-term debt.

Looking at Yahoo for "key statistics", we find that this is a LARGE company with a market cap of $56.44 billion. The trailing p/e is 34.21, but forward p/e (fye April, 2005), is 23.48. PEG ratio moderate at 1.50, price/sales steep at 6.74.

There are 1.22 billion shares outstanding with 1.21 billion of them that float. Currently there are 9.02 million shares out short (as of 10/8/03) representing 1.803 trading days. The company DOES pay a small dividend of $0.29/share representing a yield of 0.65%. The last stock split was a 2:1 split in September, 1999.

This is a GREAT stock. But no bargain. I do not own any shares but like so many other stocks would LOVE to have it in my portfolio if that could be managed!

Thanks again for stopping by. Please email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com if you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 8:36 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
November 13, 2003 Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFMI)
Hello Friends! As always PLEASE discuss ALL investment ideas you may glean from this website with your own financial advisor as I am just an amateur investor who loves to write and the ideas I post here may or may not be profitable for you and also may or may not be appropriate for you!

Anyhow, Whole Foods Markets, Inc. (WFMI) showed up on the lists of greatest percentage gainers today and it looks very interesting. I do not own any shares of Whole Foods but I confess to spending time on occasions wandering the aisles astounded at the fascinating merchandise and exotic range of food supplements and vitamins. WFMI had a great day today closing at $64.68 up $5.95 or 10.13% on the day.

According to money.cnn.com, Whole Foods "...engages in the sale of natural food and nutritional products, primarily through its 143 natural foods supermarkets (as of 4/03) and direct marketing of nutritional supplements."

As reported on NYTimes on the Web on 11/12/03, Whole Foods reported their fourth quarter results. As initially carried by PRNewswire-FirstCall, sales for the 12-week quarter increased 18% to $751 million from $638 million last year. This was driven BOTH by 10% increase in square footage AND 8.3% identical store sales growth year-over-year. These are very nice results!

Checking Morningstar.com, we find sequential revenue growth from $1.3 billion in 1998, $1.5 billion in 1999, $1.8 billion in 2000, $2.3 billion in 2001, $2.7 billion in 2002 and as just reported by the NYTimes, $3.1 billion in 2003.

Earnings/share have grown from $.82 in 1998 to $1.64 in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow has picked up from $83 million in 2000 to $161 million in the trailing twelve months.

A look at the balance sheet as reported on Morningstar.com shows $131.0 million in cash and $199.8 million in other current assets, compared to $220.7 million in current liabilities and $177.5 million in long-term liabilities.

Checking Yahoo.com for some "key statistics" we find a market cap of $3.87 Billion, trailing p/e a bit rich at 39.49, PEG ratio at 1.82, and price/sales at 1.16. There are 59.90 million shares outstanding and 58.70 million of them that float. As of 10/8/03, there were 4.12 million shares out short representing 7.3 trading days of volume. I suspect some of today's steep climb was a scramble by shorts trying to cover...but that is just a guess on my part. Will need to see if next month's short interest has increased or declined. The October figure was up from 3.56 million shares out short the prior month!

The company DOES pay a small dividend of $.60/share yielding 1.02%. In addition, the stock last split in June, 2001, when it had a 2:1 split.

This is a wonderful company both on earnings and price momentum, in my humble opinion, and on a Peter Lynch basis...I love the stores! However, it is not a bargain, as the p/e is a bit steep even when examined on a PEG basis. However, it may be a great stock to have in your portfolio at some time. Remember, please discuss any of these investment ideas with your investment advisor to see if they think it is a good investment and to make sure it is suitable for you!

If you have any questions or comments, feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 8:14 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Tuesday, 11 November 2003
November 11, 2003 Fossil, Inc. (FOSL)
Hello Friends. Market is getting ready to close and I have one more stock to share with you! As always, PLEASE discuss all of these ideas with your certified financial advisor as I am not one of those, I am an AMATEUR who loves the market...ok that's enough said. Came across Fossil, Inc. (FOSL) this afternoon. I do not own any shares not do any of my family although my kids have a couple of their watches!

According to money.cnn.com, FOSL "...designs, markets and distributes fashion watches and accessories, including sunglasses, small leather goods, belts and handbags." Currently as I write FOSL is trading at $28.42 up $1.79 or 6.72% on the day.

What drove the stock up today was an announcement of their third quarter sales and earnings today (11/11/03). As reported by NYTimes on the Web, from PRNewswire-FirstCall, FOSL reported for the thirteen week period ended October 4, 2003. Net sales increased 16.9% to $192.6 million compared to $164.8 million in 2002. Net income increased 19.2% to $16.8 million or $.34/diluted share vs $14.1 million or $.29/diluted share last year. These were great results and in fact, a record for the company.

Morningstar.com shows a steady record of revenue growth from $304.7 million in 1998, $418.8 million in 1999, $504.3 million in 2000, $545.5 million in 2001, $663.3 million in 2002 and $706.6 million in the trailing twelve months.

Earnings per share have improved from $.66/share in 1998 to $1.23 in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow while taking a dip in 2001 to ($7) million has improved from $20 million in 2000, to $51 million in the trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet, as reported on Morningstar.com, shows $132.5 million in cash, more than enough to cover BOTH the current liabilities of $84.7 million AND the long-term liabilities of $41.7 million. In addition, Morningstar reports that FOSL has an additional $220.6 million in OTHER current assets.

Looking at "key statistics" on Yahoo.com, we find that FOSL has a Market Cap of $1.33 Billion, the trailing p/e isn't too high at 23.00, and the forward p/e (up to fye January, 2005), is at 16.34. The PEG ratio isn't bad at 1.19, and the price/sales also isn't too pricey at 1.76. All-in-all not too bad a value for a growth stock.

Yahoo reports that there are 46.60 million shares outstanding with 716,000 shares out short representing 2.819 trading days as of 10/8/03. The float is only 24.7 million shares. No cash dividend is paid. The last stock dividend was a 3:2 split last year in June, 2002.

If you can't tell from this write-up, I actually LIKE FOSL. I am not THAT excited about their watches personally but my kids think they are 'hot'. Generation thing I guess. What attracts me is the reasonable valuation on a very consistent growth company. PEG ratio near one, Price/sales near 1.75, P/E itself just over 20, and a superb balance sheet. Now if I ONLY had some CASH instead of a LOAD of Margin! Oh well. Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 3:00 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Tuesday, 11 November 2003 3:02 PM CST
November 11, 2003 Coinstar (CSTR)
Hello Friends! Thanks for stopping by! As always, I must remind you to consult with your investment advisor before making any decisions based on anything posted on this website. The investments we discuss may or may not be appropriate for all investors.

Market does NOT have much oomph today. However, scanning the lists of greatest percentage gainers I have found a stock that while I have heard of it before, I do not own any shares of this company nor do any members of my family: Coinstar, Inc. (CSTR).

According to Money.cnn.com, CSTR "...develops, owns & operates network of automated, self-service coin counting and processing machines that provide consumers with convenient means of converting loose coins into cash." As I write, CSTR is trading at $17.18 up $1.66 or 10.70%.

On October 30, 2003, CSTR reported third quarter results for the period ended September 30, 2003. As reported on Business Wire and as posted on the internet by NYTimes on the Web, CSTR reported revenue of $48.7 million vs $42.9 million a year ago. Net income was $6.9 million or $.32/share compared to $8.8 million or $.38/share last year.
CSTR DOES explain that last year CSTR did not pay any income taxes while in the current quarter the effective income tax rate was 37%. If CSTR had had taxes in 2002, the results would have been net income of $5.5 million or $.24/diluted share. This explanation is per the company report; sounds reasonable to me!

Morningstar.com shows a nice sequential growth in revenue from $48 million in 1998, $78 million in 1999, $103 million in 2000, $129 million in 2001, and $156 million in 2002. Earnings/share have improved from ($1.58) in 1998 to $2.58 in 2002.

Free cash flow has improved from $2 million in 2000 to $28 million in 2002. Looking at the balance sheet we find $102.8 million in cash and $12.5 million in other current assets. Current liabilities stand at $89.6 million with long-term liabilities at $21.8 million.

Checking Yahoo.com for "key statistics" on CSTR, we find a trailing p/e at 6.03(!), with forward p/e at 16.00. The PEG ratio is also cheap at 0.96. Price/sales is listed at 1.92.

Currently there are 21.24 million shares outstanding with 20.80 million of them that float. There are a LOT of shares out short, acutally 4.42 million as of 10/8/03 representing 12.53 days of average trading volume. No dividend is paid.

This actually looks like a nice company with a steady growth record that is reasonably priced. I do not own any shares at this time.

Thanks for stopping by! Please be sure to email me if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 2:22 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Monday, 10 November 2003
November 10, 2003 CollaGenex Pharmaceutical (CGPI)
Hello Friends! As always, I must remind you to consult with your own financial advisors before taking any action based on anything written here. I hope that my comments DO however, give you something to talk about with them! I do not own any shares of CollaGenex Pharmaceutical (CGPI), but it does look like an interesting selection today!

CGPI currently is trading at $10.45 up $1.19 or 12.85% on the day. According to money.cnn.com, CGPI "...is a pharmaceutical company focused on providing innovative medical therapies for the treatment of periodontitis and other pathologies characterized by the progressive degradation of the body's connective tissue."

On October 28, 2003, CGPI reported results for their fiscal third quarter ended September 30, 2003. Total revenues increased 24% to $13.9 million compared to $11.2 million last year.

Net income was $1.5 million or $.13/share compared to net income of $356,000 or $.03/share last year.

Morningstar.com shows growth in revenue from $3 million in 1998, $16 million in 1999, $24 million in 2000, $35 million in 2001, $45 million in 2002, and extrapolating the current quarter would get us over $50 million in revenue in 2003.

Earnings/share have improved from a loss of ($1.35) in 1998 to a positive $.27/share in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow has also improved recently from ($9) million in 2000, ($8) million in 2001, $4 million in 2002 and $8 million in trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet looks terrific with $11.5 million in cash per Morningstar, more than enough to cover both the current liabilities of $6.5 million and the long-term liabilities of $0.3 million combined. In addition, CGPI has $5.4 million of other current assets.

Looking at Yahoo.com, we find that shares are actually up because of a settlement of a patent dispute against West-ward Pharmaceutical Corporation. This is just ANOTHER piece of good news for this stock. Looking at "Yahoo statistics" on CGPI, we find that this is indeed a small cap stock with a market cap of $118.32 million. The trailing p/e is at 30.0 but the forward p/e (2004), is at 16.54 based on estimates. No PEG ratio noted as company just turned profitable, and Price/Sales not too bad at 2.11.

Currently there are 11.50 million shares outstanding and 7.50 million of them that float. There are 921,000 shares out short representing 3.87 days of trading. With the small float of this stock, we may be witnessing a short 'squeeze'...days short were as of 10/8/03.

This is a SMALL company that I do like a lot. If we had room in our portfolio, I might purchase some shares. You might wish to discuss this with your own investment advisor to see if it is suitable for your needs. Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to post them here or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com .

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:00 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Friday, 7 November 2003
November 7, 2003 LeapFrog Enterprises, Inc. (LF)
I don't really know how this FROG has gotten away from this website for so long. Maybe because my kids are getting older and they don't play with the electronic learning games....anyhow, LeapFrog made the best percentage gainers list and deserves a spot on this site. As always, I must remind you to consult with your own investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on what I say on this website.

According to money.cnn.com, LeapFrog (LF) "...is a designer, developer, and marketer of technology-based educational products and related proprietary content, dedicated to making learning effective and engaging." Sounds like an advertisement doesn't it?
Anyway, as I write, LF is trading at $35.71 up $1.49 on the day or 4.35%. I do not own any shares of LF nor do any members of my family.

On October 21, 2003, LF reported their third quarter results for the quarter ended September 30, 2003. I picked this up on the NYTimes on the Web which utilized PRNewswire-Firstcall via COMTEX. Net sales for the third quarter were $203.9 million up 12% from the same period last year. Net income for the quarter was $33.4 million or $.55/share up 25% from net income of $26.7 million or $.50/share last year.

Looking at Morningstar.com, we find that LF has increased revenue from $31 million in 1998, $71.9 million in 1999, $160.1 million in 2000, $314.2 million in 2001, $531.8 million in 2002 and $575.3 million in the trailing twelve months.

Free cash flow has improved from ($39) million in 2000, ($49) million in 2001, $8 million in 2002 and $17 million in the trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet, as reported on Morningstar.com, looks excellent with $115.0 million in cash--more than enough to cover both the current liabilities of $59.0 million and the small $3.4 million in long-term debt. In addition LeapFrog is reported to have an additional $192.8 million in other current assets.

Looking at "key statistics" on yahoo.com, we find that LeapFrog has a Market Cap of $2.08 billion with a trailing p/e of 37.50 and a forward p/e (2004) of 23.28. The PEG ratio isn't too bad at 1.25 but the price/sales a bit steep at 3.32. There are 57.87 million shares outstanding with only 19.50 million of them that float. A full 66.31% of shares are held by insiders. Currently there are 4.40 million shares out short...which is quite significant...as of 10/8/03. This represents 7.24 days of average trading volume for these short sellers to cover.

No dividend is paid.

This is a nice picture overall for LF...however, it appears that sales may be slowing somewhat. Also, the valuation re: price/earnings and price/sales is a bit rich for my diet. The recent price move up may represent a bit of a short squeeze which may propel the stock higher...as there are apparently a ton of shares out there that need to be rebought and returned to their rightful owners (short-covering!)

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to leave them here by clicking on the "no comments" note under each entry or send me an email at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 12:21 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Thursday, 6 November 2003
"Trading Transparency" JCOM, RSTI
JCOM, a great stock, but quite volatile, hit a 9% loss this afternoon and I went ahead and sold 150 shares at $28.79. In light of the nice evaluation this morning on Rofin Sinar (what a name!), I purchased 200 of RSTI at $30.20 (100), and $30.21 (100). (We broke our trading rules AGAIN, I should always use proceeds from losses towards margin balance but...am still trying to get to that 25 position portfolio). Regards to All!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:38 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink

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