Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Sunday, 30 November 2003
"Six Months Ago" A longer term view from the week of May 19, 2003
It is getting late for Sunday, but I would like to once again take a look back a bit further at our selections for the week of 5/19/03. This is our second six-month review; last week we looked at the week of 5/12/03.
The first stock selected for that week was Bradley Pharmaceutical (BDY) on 5/19/03 at $15.77. BDY closed on 11/28/03 at $23.52. This is a gain of $7.75 or 49.1%.
Next on our list, also on 5/19/03 was Genentech (DNA) at $53.04. DNA closed on 11/28/03 at $84.30 for a gain of $31.26 or 58.9%.
Home Depot (HD) was selected on 5/20/03 at $31.10. HD closed on 11/28/03 at $36.76 for a gain of $5.66 or 18.2%.
Synovis Life Tech (SYNO0 was selected on 5/21/03 at $14.39. SYNO closed 11/28/03 at $25.71 for a gain of $11.32 or 78.7%.
Enzo Biochem (ENZ) was selected at $20.40 on 5/22/03. ENZ closed 11/28/03 at $18.45 for a loss of ($1.95) or (9.6%).
Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS) was selected at $29.75 on 5/22/03. DKS closed 11/28/03 at $52.58 for a gain of $22.83 or 76.7%.
New Century Financial (NCEN) was selected on 5/22/03 at $47.02 or $31.50 adjusted for a 3:2 split on 7/14/03. NCEN closed 11/28/03 $38.06 up $6.56 or 20.8%.
NVR Inc. (NVR) was selected at $394.86 on 5/23/03. NVR closed 11/28/03 at $491.00 for a gain of $96.14 or 24.3%.
Finally, Red Robin Gourmet Burger (RRGB) was selected on 5/23/03 at $17.00. RRGB closed 11/28/03 at $26.92 for a gain of $9.92 or 58.4%.
All in all it was a very good week. We had eight stocks appreciating from 18.29% to 78.7% and one stock down (9.62%). The average performance over the last six months for these nine stocks was a gain of 41.73%.
This certainly was a GREAT result. Of these stocks, I did own New Century for a short period and still have some shares of SYNO in my trading account. Please be sure to discuss any of these stocks with your investment advisor before making any investment decisions as they may or may not be profitable for you and may or may not be suitable investments.
Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, please feel free to email me at Bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com
Saturday, 29 November 2003
"How are we doing?" A look back on the weed of October 6, 2003
Hello Friends! I hope you all had a very good Thanksgiving and went light on the stuffing. I know I better be thinking about that Atkins Diet again! As always, please consult with your investment advisor before taking any action on stocks we discuss but feel free to use any ideas here for those discussions!
Didn't see much worth posting yesterday on the shortened session. As I like to do on Saturdays, it is nice to look back a bit and see how the selections on this website have been doing. Since last week, I have also started looking back to the early days of this site (6 months ago lol), and getting a bit better idea of the long term performance.
During the week of October 6, 2003, which you can review by clicking on the dates on the calendar to the left of these posts, I selected seven stocks for consideration. I have not purchased any of these issues, although I do have some shares of CVS in a separate managed account NOT under my direction. These seven stocks were: Inter Parfums (IPAR) at $10.98 on 10/6/03, Fargo Electronics (FRGO) at $14.82 on 10/6/03, Regis (RGS) at $35.17 on 10/7/03, CVS Corp (CVS) at $33.57 on 10/7/03, Ceradyne (CRDN) at $30.50 on 10/8/03, NetGear (NTGR) at $17.88 on 10/9/03, and Infosys Tech (INFY) at $77.40 on 10/10/03.
IPAR has done quite well since the post (too bad I didn't buy any shares). They closed yesterday, 11/28/03 at $20.26 for a gain of $9.28 or 84.5%.
Fargo closed 11/28/03 at $14.12, for a loss of ($.70), or (4.7%).
Regis (RGS), the salon firm, has done a bit better closing Friday, 11/28/03 at $40.95 for a gain of $5.78 or 16.4%.
CVS closed 11/28/03 at $37.46 for a gain of $3.89 or 11.6%.
Ceradyne (CRDN), the ceramic armor manufacturer, closed Friday 11/28/03 at $42.71, for a nice gain of $12.21 or 40%.
NTGR finished up the week at $13.49 for a loss of ($4.39) or (24.6%).
Finally, Infosys (INFY) closed Friday, 11/28/03 at $83.05 for a gain of $5.65 or 7.3%.
In summary, of the seven stocks, five had gains and two had losses. The average percent performance of these 7 stocks for approximately the last seven week period amounted to an 18.6% gain. This is a terrific performance for that week's selections.
Remember, past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but what the heck it was a great week wasn't it?
Thanks once again for visiting. If you have any questions or comments, please leave them right here under 'comments' or email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
Thursday, 27 November 2003
"Trading Account Update" as of 11/26/03
I am still having problems with the Site Builder software that allows me to update the main Bobs Advice website....so wanted to share with you the status of the trading account. My last account update on the Website was 11/9/03 when I reported that we had realized gains of $3,042.06 and unrealized gains of $23,386.58. As of 11/26/03, we are now are realized gains of $4,266.56, and unrealized gains of $25,738.71...so our overall position has improved nicely in the last 2 1/2 weeks.
Transactions since 11/9/03 have been reported on the BLOG as best I have been able, but they are as follows: on 11/18/03 I sold Take-Two Interactive software, 150 shares at $32.48. I had a cost basis of $35.47 so sold at about an 8.4% loss.
On November 18, 2003, I puchased 200 shares of Sybron Dental (SYD) at $25.80. On November 24, 2003, I purchased 150 shares of Odyssey Healthcare (ODSY) at $35.49.
Taking some profits, I sold 50 shares of Merit Medical (MMSI) at $29.02 on 11/24/03. These shares were 1/4 of my 200 share purchase on 9/8/03 at a cost basis of $23.32 and represent a 24.4% gain or in dollar terms $276.93.
Also on 11/24/03, I took a portion of my profits on Closure Medical (CLSR), selling 50 shares at $35.56.
These shares were purchased on 7/17/03 for a cost of $22.91. This represented a gain of 55.2% on the purchase (virtually reaching my goal of 60% for my second 1/4 of shares), or $624.66 profit.
On 11/25/03, I purchased 200 shares of Mylan Labs (MYL) at $24.79, filling out my planned 25 position portfolio.
Yesterday, with a nice move in Eon Labs (ELAB), I sold 30 shares at $52.90. These shares were part of a larger position initially purchased on 5/30/03 at $29.39, so yesterday's sale was at a gain of 80% (nearly reaching my goal of 90% for the third 25% sale), or a profit of $697.14.
As you can see, at least as far as my portfolio here is concerned, I have much to be thankful for. But this is just about investing, I am far more thankful for my family and friends without which, stock market trading, however profitable, would be devoid of any satisfaction.
Wishing you and yours a very Happy and Healthy Thanksgiving! Go easy on the stuffing ok?
Wednesday, 26 November 2003
November 26, 2003 H&R Block, Inc. (HRB)
Hello Friends! It is almost Thanksgiving and I have so much to be thankful for. First, thankful for my family, my friends, the fact that I have a job and can take care of my family....well the list is quite long and I do not want to bore you. However, I AM thankful that you stopped by and visited this site. This is my hobby, I think I have some interesting ideas, and love the idea that I can share them with you! If you have questions about the site, email me at email@example.com and I will try to get right back to you!
Looking through the lists of greatest gainers today, I came across H&R Block (HRB) and I think it deserves a spot on this website. As you probably know, according to money.cnn.com, HRB "...is a holding-company whose subsidiaries provide tax-related services, investment services through broker- dealers, mortgage services, personal productivity software, accounting and consulting services to business clients." HRB closed today at $53.41 up $4.01 or 8.12% on the day. I do not own any shares of HRB nor do any members of my family.
What sparked the move in this stock today was an announcement yesterday, reported on Dow Jones Business Wire, and reported by Yahoo.com, regarding 2nd quarter results. This came out yesterday after the market closed, so the market responded favorably today. For the first time apparently ever, HRB posted a profit in its 2nd quarter. You can imagine how seasonal the tax business is, and HRB usually loses money this period. Instead, for the quarter ended October 31, 2003, HRB reported net income of $10.4 mllion or $.06/share compared to last year's loss of ($37.3) million or ($.21)/share. As is often the case, the move occurred because EXPECTATIONS were lower, and HRB exceeded expectations. Analysts, according to the article, were looking for a loss of ($.06)/share instead of the profit of $.06!
Morningstar.com shows an excellent record of revenue growth recently with $1.6 billion in revenue in 1999, $2.4 billion in 2000, $3.0 billion in 2001, $3.3 billion in 2002, and $3.8 billion in 2003.
Earnings/share have grown steadily from $1.07/share in 1999 to the most recent $3.26 in the trailing twelve months.
Dividends have ALSO been improving each year from $.48/share in 199, the $.72 in the trailing twelve months.
Free cash flow was reported at $156 million in 2001 and has improved to $617 million in the trailing twelve months.
The balance sheet, as reported on Morningstar.com appears to be reasonably balanced with $1.2 billion in cash and $1.32 billion in other current assets compared with $1.7 billion i current liabilities and $1.05 billin in long-term liabilities. Hopefully, with the recent large growth in free cash flow, we will see some of the cash going towards paying down liabilities.
Looking for some valuation measurements on Yahoo.com "key statistics", we find that the market cap is a sizeable $9.52 billion. The trailing p/e is nice at 15.02 and the forward p/e is even nicer at 12.57. The PEG ratio is very pretty at 0.85 with a price/sales at 2.29.
This is NOT a small company as there are 178.28 million shares outstanding with 164.70 million of them that float. Currently, there are 8.49 million shares out short as of 11/10/03....representing 5.16% of the float or 8.18 trading days. This is a LOT of shares out short, and the steep price rise today, may very well be a demonstration of a lot of these pre-sold shares being covered by anxious shorts! (just my guess!) As noted, HRB does pay a dividend as an added bonus of $.80/share for a 1.62% yield. The last stock split reported on Yahoo was a 2:1 split in October, 1991.
Quite frankly, I like this stock a lot and may suggest it to my stock club. I am at my 25 position, self-imposed maximum, so I am not planning a purchase at this point in my trading account. However, with the dividend, cheap p/e, PEG under 1.0, and nice news, what is there NOT to like. Let alone all of those shares just WAITING to be bought in the form of shares out short.
Thanks again for stopping by! And like always, please consult with your investment advisor if you are interested in any stocks that are mentioned here. For any questions about this site, please feel free to email me at firstname.lastname@example.org.
"Trading Transparency" ELAB
Stocks were up strongly early today and one stock that particularly stood out was ELAB. ELAB closed today at $52.24 up $2.69 or 5.44%. The stock traded as high as $53.50 on news of US regulatory approval of a generic verson of SmithKline's Wellbutrin. (http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/031126/health_wellbutrin_4.html). Eon Labs (ELAB) has been a star performer in my trading portfolio. My initial purchase was made on 5/30/03 when I purchased 250 shares at a cost basis of $29.39. On June 16, 2003, I sold 50 shares at $36.42 (24% gain) for gain of $351.32, and another 50 shares at $38.34 (30.4% gain) for gain of $447.26, and today I sold 30 shares at $52.90 (80% gain) or gain of $705.30. We still have 120 shares remaining at $52.24....for a value of $6,268.80. (The value of our initial purchase of 250 shares at $29.39 was $7347.50...so we have almost the entire value of ELAB still in our portfolio.)...you can see how this is working!
Anyhow, wishing you and ALL of my friends a very Happy Thanksgiving! As always, please consult with your investment advisor before taking any action on any stocks listed on this website...as they may or may not be profitable, and may or may not be suitable for you!
Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 7:46 PM CST
Updated: Wednesday, 26 November 2003 7:48 PM CST
Tuesday, 25 November 2003
"Trading Transparency" MYL and Trading Portfolio Update 11/25/03
Mylan Laboratories (MYL) was first posted on the website on 8/4/03 at $23.02 adjusted for a 3:2 split on 9/30/03. MYL had a nice day today closing at $24.68, up $.96 or 4.05% on the day. On October 29, 2003, MYL reported through BUSINESS WIRE, as picked up by USATODAY.com, revenues were up 13% to $360.1 million and Net Earnings were up 34% to $91.3 million with diluted earnings per share at $.33/share compared to $.24/share last year. All in all a great report. Today, MYL reported FDA approval for a transdermal Fentanyl system...which MYL referred to as a "substantial opportunity for Mylan..." The market appeared to like the news.
Anyway, I picked up 200 shares at $24.79 today to finish my 25 position portfolio. Since the main website is having problems being updated, let me review our current 25 position trading portfolio, #shares, closing price, and percentage gain or (loss): AAII, 200 shares, $17.56, 28.63%; ANN, 200 shares, $39.26, 19.80%; CLSR, 150 shares, $35.50, 54.99%; COH, 120 shares, $38.380, 130.34%; COO, 100 shares, $44.65, 65.49%; DELL, 150 shares, $34.360, 36.70%; ELAB, 150 shares, $49.55, 68.58%, EXAC, 175 shares, $14.96, 38.75%; EXP, 200 shares, $22.50, 13.81%, FIC, 100 shares, $52.640, (4.88%), HIBB, 135 shares, $30.25, 107.58%; IGT, 200 shares, $34.010, (1.71%); KRON, 150 shares, $39.690, 44.36%; MMSI, 150 shares, $30.490, 30.75%, MYL 200 shares, $24.68, waiting update; ODSY, 150 shares, $35.940, 1.12%; PPDI, 200 shares, $29.76, 1.71%; PRAA, 150 shares, $27.820, 3.06%; QSII, 150 shares, $43.50, 40.34%; RAD, 225 shares, $6.09, 132.45%; RSTI, 200 shares, $33.02, 9.18%; SBUX, 75 shares, $31.510, 38.14%; STJ, 150 shares, $60.850, 5.29%; SYD, 200 shares, $28.99, 12.19%; SYNO, 150 shares, $25.22, 73.45%.
These prices are as of the close today, 11/25/03.
Thanks again for stopping by! Remember to consult with your investment advisor BEFORE making any decisions on what you read here! If you have any questions, please feel free to write me at email@example.com!
Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 6:44 PM CST
Updated: Tuesday, 25 November 2003 6:53 PM CST
Monday, 24 November 2003
November 24, 2003 Odyssey Healthcare, Inc. (ODSY)
Thanks for stopping by! As I mentioned in the just-posted previous note, I sold some MMSI and some CLSR today and picked up 150 shares of ODSY. Thus, this listing is of a stock that I am a shareholder, at least as of today. Let me go over the data, and I think you will see why I made the purchase. As always, please consult with your investment advisor before make any decisions based on information presented here as the investment ideas may or may not be appropriate or profitable!
According to money.cnn.com, ODSY "...is a provider of hospice services in the United States. Hospice services focus on palliative care for patients with life-limiting illnesses." ODSY had a nice day today, closing at $35.94 up $3.66 or 11.34% on the day.
On November 3, 2003, ODSY reported their third quarter 2003 results for the three months ended September 30, 2003. This was reported by BUSINESS WIRE and picked up by Yahoo.com. Net patient service revenue for the period grew 40% to $71.0 million compared to the same period last year. Net income for the quarter was $7.8 million, a 45% increase over the $5.4 million for the same quarter last year. On a per diluted share basis, the results for the quarter were $.21, a 40% increase over the $.15 reported in 2002.
If we look at Morningstar.com, we find that revenues from ODSY have grown rapidly from $27.2 million in 1998, to $46.5 million in 1999, $85.3 million in 2000, $130.2 million in 2001, and $194.5 million in 2002. At the current quarterly rate, over $250 million should be reported in 2003.
Free cash flow has improved from $3 million in 2000 to $15 million in trailing twelve months. The balance sheet looks superb with $33.6 million in cash, more than enough to cover the $22.7 million in current liabilities and $1.8 million (!) of long-term debt. In addition, ODSY reports on Morningstar to have $40.2 million in other current assets.
Looking at Morningstar.com for "key statistics" we find a Market Cap of $1.30 billion, a trailing p/e of 45.15 but a forward p/e (fye Dec 2004) of 29.61. There are 36.29 million shares outstancing and 33.3 million of them that float. As of 10/8/03, there were 3.70 million shares out short, down from 4.02 million last month. This is significant as it represents 6.02 trading days...and we may be witnessing a "short squeeze". The stock was recently split: a 3:2 split was the last split date on 8/13/03.
Overall, I like this stock a lot. In fact, enough to BUY some shares. The price is a bit steep but the growth picture is very nice and we may be lucky enough to have a bit of an extended bull run!
Thanks again for stopping by. Be sure to discuss with your investment advisor any questions or comments on this site. If you need to contact me, please feel free to email me at firstname.lastname@example.org .
"Trading Transparency" CLSR, MMSI, ODSY
Hello Friends! The market ended up quite strong today...suggesting our impression that things were getting a bit oversold was on the mark. The rise enabled me to sell 50 shares of CLSR at $35.56, these shares had originally been purchased on 7/17/03 at $22.91...giving us about a 50% gain...a little shy of our goal of 60%...but close enough to work, and we sold 50 shares of MMSI at $29.02. These shares were initially purchased at $23.32, giving us a bit over a 25% gain or so...near our goal of 30% for the first 1/4 of shares.
Since I am working towards a 25 position portfolio, and the opportunity arose, I purchased 150 shares of Odyssey Healthcare Inc. (ODSY) at $35.49. I will discuss ODSY in a later note.
Again, as always, please discuss any of these "ideas" with your investment advisor as they may or may not be profitable investment moves and may or may not be appropriate for you! Regards!
Sunday, 23 November 2003
"Six months ago" A longer term view from week of 5/12/03
It has been a little over six months ago since I first posted here. I have become a bit concerned about going out into cyberspace and writing down comments about stocks. I try to let you know where I get my information, whether I own shares of the stock, and why I like this stock. However, as always, remember to consult with your own investment advisor before taking any actions based on this website. The information here may or may not be appropriate for you and may or may not be profitable or potentially a financial loss for you.
Let's take a look back at the first week of this website. Specifically, the week of May 12, 2003, which you can link to by using the calendar on the left of the BLOG. During the week of May 12th, I posted my first notes on stocks here which included St. Jude Medical (STJ) on 5/12/03 at $55.30, HealthExtras (HLEX) on 5/14/03 at $5.70, J2 Communications (JCOM) on 5/14/03 at $32.60, AMN Healthcare (AHS) at $10.05 on 5/15/03, and Agree Realty (ADC) at $23.41 on 5/16/03.
St. Jude Medical closed 11/21/03 at $59.95. This is a gain of $4.65 or 8.4% since posting. Since posting, I now own STJ in my trading account having purchased 150 shares at $57.79 on 10/15/03. STJ's story appears to be intact, they reported earnings on 10/15/03 picked up from BUSINESS WIRE on Yahoo.com, third quarter results showed a sales and earnings increase of 18% from the prior year.
HealthExtras was picked on this site at $5.70. I have been in and out of that stock since that posting and just received a confirmation from a managed retirement account (where I do NOT make investment decisions) that my manager has just added some shares of HLEX to my retirement portfolio. However, I do not own any shares in my trading account. HLEX closed on 11/21/03 at $11.88 for a gain of $6.18 or 108.4%.
JCOM was selected on 5/14/03 at $32.60. JCOM has been under pressure lately, but closed at $25.85 on 11/21/03. However, this stock split 2:1 on 9/2/03 for and effective cose of $16.30. Thus, this stock is up $9.55/share or 58.6% as of this past Friday. Fundamentally, the stock appears to be intact with the latest earnings report on October 20, 2003, as picked up on Yahoo.com from PRNewswire-FirstCall, revenues increased 51% to $18.9 million, and net earnings increased 93% to $7.5 million from the prior year.
AMN Healthcare (AHS) was selected on 5/15/03 at $10.05/share. AHS closed Friday, 11/21/03, at $15.98. This represents a gain of $5.93/share or 59.0%. On November 5, 2003, AHS reported their third quarter results. As picked up on Yahoo.com from Dow Jones, earnings were $9.3 million, compared with $14.3 million last year, and revenue declined 16% to $171.5 million from $203.4 million last year. However, they beat expectations and the stock has continued to do well. However, this company, which I do not own any shares, has gotten off its record of continuing growth, and if I owned it, this would be a candidate for a sale on any weakness.
Finally, Agree Realty (ADC) was picked on 5/16/03 at $23.41/share. ADC closed 11/21/03 at $26.27/share for a gain of $2.86 or 12.2% since I selected it for this website. I do not own any shares, nor have I owned any of this stock in the past. They reported results on 10/29/03, picked up by Yahoo.com from PRNewswire-First call. Both revenues and earnings appear to be DOWN from last year. This stock has a nice gain for us on this site, but would also be a candidate for a sale on any weakness!
So how have we done? Not too shabby imho. For the five stocks we selected a little over 6 months ago, the first week of this website, we have gains of 8.4%, 108.4%, 58.6%, 59%, and 12.2%. Because of the stupendous performance of HLEX and the outstanding performance of JCOM and AHS, we have an average gain of 49.32% in six months.
Overall, this is a great performance, but taken in light of the overall gain in the market this same period, as far as I am concerned the jury is still out on this methodology. But it sure was a nice week to start out with!
Thanks for stopping by! Remember to always consult with your investment advisor as I am just an amateur investor with a love of stocks...and the advice here may or may not be appropriate for you and may or may not result in gains.
If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to email me at email@example.com
Wishing everyone a very Happy Thanksgiving!
Saturday, 22 November 2003
"How are we doing?" A look back on the week of September 29, 2003.
I am still having problems with "site builder" the website builder...so bear with me. I can edit the BLOG ok but not the main page. Anyhow, it is a weekend! I ran in my first 5K...I should say walked and came in somewhere around 500th out of 600 with a time about 45 1/2 minutes...walking. Lots of room for improvement I guess :).
About 7 weeks ago, we picked five stocks for the week of September 29, 2003. I like to look back a bit on weekends and see how what I picked is doing. The stocks selected were: SFBC International (SFCC) at $30.25 on 9/29/03, Ann Taylor Stores (ANN) at $32.14 on 9/30/03, TASER International (TASR) at $29.25 on 10/1/03, UTStarcom (UTSI) at $35.23 on 10/2/03, and Genesis Microchip (GNSS) at $13.28 on 10/3/03. Of these stocks, the only one that I purchased and still own is Ann Taylor Stores in my trading account.
SFCC has NOT done very well since my selection and closed on 11/21/03 at $24.51, down $1.63 on the day. Since our pick the stock is down ($5.74) or (19.0%).
Ann Taylor Stores (ANN) closed Friday, 11/21/03, at $37.52. This is up $5.38 or 16.7% since listing it on this website. As noted earlier, I also purchased some ANN in my trading account about the time of my stock listing.
TASR is probably the most SPECTACULAR pick on our board for some time. TASR closed Friday, 11/21/03, at $70.71, up $41.46 or 142.0% since the post. Unfortunately, I repeat, I did not buy any shares!
Since UTSI was selected, the stock price has barely budged moving from $35.23 to $35.75, a gain of $.52 or 1.5%.
My final pick that week was Genesis Microchip at $13.28 on 10/3/03. GNSS closed at $18.14 on 11/21/03. This was a nice gain for this stock of $4.86 or 36.6%.
Thus, during the week, we had five stocks with the following performances: (19.0%), 16.7%, 142.0%, 1.5%, and 36.6%. The average performance was a gain of 35.56%. This is one of the BEST performances (and mostly driven by TASR) that I have reviewed on this website!
Thanks again for visiting. Please, I repeat PLEASE, discuss all of these ideas on this website with your investment advisor as there is no guarantee for their continued performance, no guarantee that they are appropriate for you, and in fact may result in considerable financial loss.
If you have any questions, or comments, you can leave them here under "no comments" below each posting, or email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
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