Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Saturday, 27 December 2003
"Six Months Ago" A longer term view from the week of June 16, 2003
Hello Friends! Thanks again for stopping by. As always, please remember to consult with your investment advisor before making any decisions based on information on this website as they may or may not be suitable for you. For those of you who are returning, I like to use the weekend to post a note reviewing how my picks have done. Last week we reviewed the week of June 9, 2003. This week, let's take a look at the week of June 16, 2003, when I selected 11 stocks. I will look at 10 here as the first of the week, Whitman Education Group (WIX) was acquired shortly after the post.
The first pick of that week was American Home Mortgage (AHMH) which was selected on 6/16/03 for $19.49. AHH (the new symbol) closed 12/26/03 at $22.72. This was a gain of $3.23 or 16.6%. Looking throught the news for the latest earnings report, I found a report on Yahoo from PRNewswire-FirstCall from October 28th when American Home Mortgage reported their third quarter results for the period ended September 30, 2003: Net earnings were $18.7 million a 46.1% over the prior year's earnings of $12.8 million. On an earnings per share, this was $1.06 vs $.76 last year, and revenue was up 65% from $73 million last year to $121.9 million this year. The company appears to be on track, but as with all interest rate sensitive issues, the market is skeptical that this growth can continue with the possible bottoming of rates perceived.
The next stock I picked was Dominion Homes (DHOM) at $24.50 on 6/16/03. DHOM closed 12/26/03 at $31.71 for a gain of $7.21 or 29.4%. The latest quarterly results were reported on Yahoo.com on October 27, 2003, for the third quarter ended September 30, 2003. This report was carried on BUSINESS WIRE. Net income for the three months increased 26% to $9.1 million from $7.2 million last year. Diluted earnings/share increased 27% to $1.13/share from $.89/share last year. Revenues for the quarter increased 10% to $153.2 million from the delivery of 844 homes, compared to revenue in 2002 same quarter of $139.4 million from the delivery of 724 homes. DHOM appears to be on track but is again an interest rate sensitive issue. (in my opinion)
Our next stock that week was Quest Diagnostics (DGX) at $64.28. DGX closed 12/26/03 at $70.30 for a gain of $5.72 or 8.9%. As reported on Yahoo.com, DGX reported their third quarter, 2003, results on October 21, 2003 from a story carried on PRNewswire-FirstCall. For the quarter ended September 30, 2003, net income increased to $120 million from $87 million in the same quarter, 2002, and earnings per share increased 29% to $1.12 from $.87 in 2002. In addition, the company announced an initial quarterly dividend and increased the stock repurchase (buying its own shares back) by $300 million. Revenues were up 15.3% over the prior year to $1.2 billion. This company is still doing great!
Next on the week, Factset Research (FDS) was picked on 6/17/03 at $40.39. FDS closed 12/26/03 at $37.44. This represents a loss of $(2.95) or (7.3)%. On December 16, 2003, FDS reported results for their first fiscal quarter ended November 30, 2003, as reported on Yahoo.com from a story on Dow Jones. Revenue climbed 12% to $59.3 million from $52.8 million last year and earnings were $13.9 million or $.39/share vs $11.5 million or $.33/share. The company appears to be growing fine but has not exceeded analysts expectations. Things appear to be "on track."
On June 17, 2003, Outback Steakhouse (OSI) made my list at $39.76. OSI has recently been hit by the 'mad cow disease scare'. However, on 12/26/03, OSI closed at $42.72, still ahead of our pick price by $2.96 or 7.4%. I would probably shy away from beef-related stocks in general at this point of time until the Mad Cow situation gets sorted out. However, this is your call and this might yet be a good purchase price. On October 23, 2003, OSI reported results for the three months ended September 30, 2003. As reported by Yahoo.com, picked up from a story on PRNewswire-FirstCall, OSI reported net income for the quarter of $37.6 million or $.48/share, compared to $32.8 million or $.42/share last year. Revenues for the quarter increase 17.3% to $685 million compared with $584 million last year. The company reported same store sales growth for the quarter of 1.2% for domestic stores.
Next on the list that week was Tofutti Brands (TOF) picked at $2.82 on 6/18/03. TOF closed 12/26/03 at $3.05 for a gain of $.23 or 8.2%. On November 12, 2003, TOF announced results for the third quarter ended September 27, 2003. The story was reported on Yahoo.com, from a story run on PRNewswire-FirstCall. Sales for the quarter increased 10% to $5.0 million from $4.5 million last year. For the quarter, the operating income was $269,000, compared to operating income of $374,000. tHe company had lots of explanations of WHY the net income was down, but this is a negative, in my humble opinion. Net income was $.03/share compared to $.04/share last year. This is not an INCREASE and I would have a hard time picking this stock again at this time.
LifeCell was selected on 6/18/03 at $5.78/share. LIFC closed at $6.051 on 12/26/03. This is a gain of $.271 or 4.7%. On October 20, 2003, LIFC reported their third quarter results for the quarter ended September 30, 2003. This was run on Yahoo.com from a story on PRNewswire-FirstCall. During the quarter, revenue was $10.1 million up 16% from revenue of $8.7 million in the same quarter in 2002. Net income was $506,000 up 47% from $344,000 last year. On a per share basis, net income/diluted share was $.02 vs. $.01 last year. The stock appears to be on track to me!
Macrovision (MVSN) made our list on 6/18/03 at $21.15. MVSN closed 12/26/03 at $22.79 for a gain of $1.64 or 7.8%. On October 27, 2003, MVSN reported results for the third quarter of 2003 for the period ended September 30, 2003. As reported on Yahoo.com from a story on BUSINESS WIRE, net revenue for the quarter was $31.2 million an increase of 33% from 2002 results of $23.5 million. Net income for the quarter was $7.5 million, or 366% higher than the $1.6 million in the same quarter last year. Diluted earnings/share were $.15/share vs $.03/share last year, a 400% increase. This stock still rocks!
Forest Labs (FRX) was selected here on 6/20/03 at $54.99. FRX was $62.35/share, an increase of $7.36 or 13.4%. On October 14, 2003, FRX reported their latest quarterly results for the second quarter, 2004, period ended September 30, 2003. as reported on Yahoo.com from a PRNewswire-FirstCall story, net sales were up 16% to $619.2 million from $531.6 million last year. Net income was up 29% to $184 million from $142 million last year. On a diluted earnings/share basis, this was $.49/share this quarter a 29% increase over last year's $.38/share result. This company appears to be on track!
Finally, (am I being too long-winded here? let me know...I just want to do a good job updating the readers here)...Laboratory Corp. of America (LH) was selected at $30.68 on 6/20/03. LH closed at $35.69 on 12/26/03, for a gain of $5.01 or 16.3%. Looking for the latest earnings results on yahoo.com, I found the October 23, 2003, results for the 2003 third quarter ended September 30, 2003. Revenues were $752.0 million, a 14.8% increase over the same period last year. Net earnings increased 26.1% to $85.1 million compared to $67.5 million in earnings in 2002. On a diluted per share basis, earnings increased 28% to $.59/share from $.46/share in 2002 same quarter. Things still look nice at LH!
So in conclusion, one of our picks was acquired so we will not comment on that one. For the rest of the picks, we had nine gainers and one loser for an average gain of 10.5% over the six month period. Not fabulous but not bad either!
Thanks again for stopping by. I hope you all have a great weekend. If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, please feel free to leave them right here on the website or email me at email@example.com
Happy New Year!
"How are we doing?" A look back on the week of November 3, 2003
Hello Friends! Thanks again for stopping by. Needless to add, please check with your investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on information on this BLOG. As usual on weekends, it is the time I like to take to review some of our recent past picks and see how they are doing over the short-run. Overall, we seem to be having better results over the six-month period rather than the 6 weeks...but then that is pretty obvious too.
During the week of November 3, 2003, I picked five stocks for inclusion here: Beazer Homes (BZH), Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI), Rofin-Sinar Technologies (RSTI), Aceto (ACET), and LeapFrog Enterprises (LF).
BZH was selected on 11/5/03 at $106.34. It closed yesterday, 12/26/03, at $101.62 for a loss of $(4.72), or (4.4)%.
WPI was selected on 11/5/03 at $41.01. Watson closed yesterday, 12/26/03, at $45.58 for a gain of $4.57 or 11.1%.
RSTI was selected on 11/6/03 at $28.87. Rofin-Sinar closed on 12/26/03 at $32.08 for a gain of $3.21 or 11.1%.
Aceto was picked on 11/6/03 at $17.42. ACET closed 12/26/03 at $25.18 for a gain of $7.76 or 44.5%.
Finally, LeapFrog was picked on 11/7/03 at $35.71. LF closed 12/26/03 at $27.21 for a loss of $(8.50) or (23.8)%.
For the 6 week period, these five stocks have returned an average of 7.7%. That really isn't too bad...and if we had purchased all five and kept our 8% stops like we like, then we wouldn't have that big loss with LeapFrog...hmmm. Anyhow, I only have owned Rofin-Sinar in my trading account and stopped out of that before holding it very long.
Thanks again for stopping by! Please come back and visit often, leave lots of comments and critiques on the website, and if you have any other questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
Friday, 26 December 2003
December 26, 2003 Sharper Image (SHRP)
Hello Friends! I hope you all had a great Holiday! Our family did Peter Pan yesterday. O.K. sounds juvenile but I won't grow up either. My 19 year old son kept talking about the only other person not growing up (I guess besides his Dad) was Michael Jackson. I guess he DOES call his ranch "Neverland"...so what else could I expect from my son?
Anyway, as ALWAYS, remember to check with your investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website. I just worry about you guys!
Today, Sharper Image (SHRP) made the lists. We are all familiar with this retailer with all of the GREAT gadgets (like Brookstone)....but this company has some interesting numbers which I will share with you and makes it an interesting choice this morning. As I write, SHRP is trading at $32.40 up $2.43 or 8.11% on the day.
A lot of retailers have reported fairly anemic results for the holiday season. As reported on Yahoo today, from a story carried by BUSINESS WIRE, SHRP reported strong retail sales, and related that "...Through December 24 comparable store sales increased 21% and total company sales increased 30%, compared to the same December 1 to 24 period last year." These are GREAT results!
Looking at the latest quarter for financial results we find that on November 20, 2003, SHRP reported and the story was picked up by BUSINESS WIRE and run by Yahoo.com, that third quarter results were excellent. For the three months ended October 31, 2003, total revenue increased 24% to $131.1 million from last year's $106.1 million. During that quarter, same store sales increased 10% and catalog sales were up 20%, and internet sales climbed 36%. WOW! Net earnings were $985,000 or $.06/diluted share compared to last year's net loss of $(504,000), or $(0.04)/diluted share.
Morningstar.com shows that this revenue growth is not a unique event...revenue in 1999 was $243.1 million, $304.1 million in 2000, $420.7 million in 2001, $396.2 million in 2002 (the hiccup), $523.3 million in 2003, and $574.5 million in the trailing twelve months.
During this period, earnings per share have increased from $.52 in 1999 to $1.35 in the trailing twelve months.
Free cash flow has generally improved as well from ($2) million in 2001 to ($11) million in 2002, $14 million in 2003 and $11 million in the trailing twelve months.
The balance sheet, in my humble opinion, looks nice as well. As reported on Morningstar.com, the company has $67.7 million in cash and $121.0 million in other current assets vs. $76.6 million in current liabilities and only $10.2 million in long-term debt.
Here is the nice part. Looking at Yahoo.com for "key statistics", we find that the company has a market cap of $489.32 million. The trailing p/e is very nice at 22.76 and the forward p/e (based on fye 31-Jan-05) is 16.65. And get this, the PEG ratio is 0.83 (very nice), and price/sales is 0.76 (!). These are very reasonable numbers in terms of valuation! (in my opinion.)
SHRP has only 15.11 million shares outstanding with 7.80 million of them that float. On top of all of this there is a LOAD of shares out short...with Yahoo.com reporting 2.84 Million shares out short as of 12/8/03) This is 8.928 trading days or 36.40% of the float. These guys may need to scramble and make some purchases to cover their short sales.
No dividend is paid and Yahoo does not report any prior stock splits.
Overall, I like this stock a lot. The company is a retail venture reporting same stores consistently over 10% and is doing well in both the catalog and internet portion of its business. I do NOT own any shares and since I am margined up to my ears, I do not plan to buy any. However, the valuation is great with a reasonable p/e, the PEG is under 1.0, and the Price/sales also under 1.0. Just to top off this cake with some icing, there are LOADS of shares out short which are just WAITING to purchase shares. Anyhow, I like it.
Hope all of you had a GREAT holiday and will have a safe and healthy 2004...not to add a profitable year!
Wednesday, 24 December 2003
December 24, 2003 Faro Technologies (FARO)
"Twas the night before Christmas and all through the house...." Hmmm....maybe I can stir a bit before Santa drops by :). Remember, before you STIR your portfolio, please consult with your investment advisor as I AM an amateur investor and the things I discuss may or may not be appropriate investments for you!
As I was finishing up today, I came across Faro Technologies (FARO) and I think it is worth a word here on this site. FARO had a nice day today in the face of a declining market, closing at $23.90 up $1.77 or 8.00%. According to money.cnn.com, FARO "...designs, develops, markets & supports portable, software-driven, three dimensional measurement systems that are used in manufacturing and industrial applications."
Looking for their latest quarter results (do you see a pattern with my posts...I always look at the latest quarter before proceeding!), I found the third quarter 2003 results reported on October 29, 2003. Picked up by yahoo.com from PRNewswire-FirstCall, FARO reported sales of $19.2 million, a record and a 58.7% increase from the same quarter last year. Net income was $3.3 million or $.26/diluted share vs $72,000 or $.01/diluted share in 2002. (Excluding a $1.1 million gain from settlement of litigation, the results were still outstanding at $2.2 million or $.17/diluted share this year).
Looking at Morningstar.com, I found that FARO's revenue has grown from $27.5 million in 1998, $33.1 million in 1999, $40.9 million in 2000, $36.1 million in 2001 (a hiccup!), $46.2 million in 2002 and $56.9 million in the trailing twelve months.
Earnings/share have mostly been negative with ($.46) reported in 1998, improving to a loss of ($.17) in 2002 but a POSITIVE $.30/share reported in the trailing twelve months.
Free cash flow has not been quite as exciting but appears to be improving...$4 million in 2000, ($2) million in 2001, ($6) million in 2002, and ($2) million in trailing twelve months. I would prefer to see this cash flow a bit more positive...
The balance sheet is quite healthy. As reported on Morningstar.com, FARO has $5.2 million in cash and $26.9 million in other current assets as opposed to $11.2 million in current liabilities and only $1.0 million in long-term liabilities.
Looking at "Key Statistics" on Yahoo.com, we find that FARO has a market cap of $289.19 million. The trailing p/e is 43.14, but forward p/e (fye 31-Dec-04) is estimated at 29.12. Price/sales not cheap at 4.19.
FARO has 12.10 million shares outstanding with 8.00 million of them that float. There are 648,000 shares out short as of 11/10/03, representing a short ratio of 0.695...so not much short interest on this stock. No dividend is paid, and no stock split reported.
FARO is a nice investment with improving revenue and earnings and growing quite dramatically. The p/e is a bit rich as the stock is JUST turning profitable latest year. Also, the free cash flow has yet turned positive which would also be nice. This is a very nice company to consider...and we will keep watch on it right here! I do not own any shares of this stock and am not planning to purchase any in the near future!
Thanks again for stopping by! Have a GREAT CHRISTMAS and wishing you all a wonderful and healthy 2004. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here or email me at email@example.com
December 24, 2003 Sanderson Farms (SAFM)
Hello Friends! Thanks again for stopping by. Remember to consult with your investment advisor if you think you have found a good idea on this website as it may or may not be suitable for you! Before I forget, let me use this opportunity to wish all of my friends a very Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to those who celebrate these Holidays this time of year! And as always, wishing you a successful investing 2004 and forget about profits....how about everyone stay safe and healthy!
The disease of the day is Mad Cow. With a cow reported with this disease in Washington state, some of the beef-related stocks are taking a hit. On the other hand, some of the poultry stocks are moving higher. And Sanderson Farms fits into this! (I would call this "playing chicken!") SAFM is having a great day today trading as I write at $42.79 up $4.29 or 11.14% on the day. And no I do not own any shares of this stock...but would NOT be hesitant to buy some if I weren't already up to my cow's ears in margin!
On December 9, 2003, SAFM reported their fourth quarter financial results. This was picked up on Yahoo.com from the BUSINESS WIRE story. Sales were up strong at $254.7 million vs $201.0 million last year for the same period. Net income this period was $20.5 million or $1.55/diluted share vs $6.5 million or $.49/diluted share last year. I mean these were GREAT numbers without even figuring on Mad Cow!
Looking at Morningstar, we find that this stock also fits into our growth stock pattern. Revenues have been increasing STEADILY from $521 million in 1998, $559 million in 1999, $606 million in 2000, $706 million in 2001, $744 million in 2002 and $819 million in the trailing twelve months. Very nice indeed!
Earnings per share have been a bit erratic, with $1.06/share reported in 1998, dropping to ($.41)/share in 2000, but steadily increasing from there to $3.04 in the trailing twelve months.
Free cash flow has been positive improving from $4 million in 2000, to $29 million in 2002 and $40 million in the trailing twelve months.
Looking at the balance sheet on Morningstar.com, we find that Sanderson has $22.1 million in cash and $119.6 million in other current assets vs. $61.1 million in current liabilities and only $56.5 million in long-term debt. This is a very nice if not perfect picture!
Yahoo.com "key statistics" shows that SAFM has a market cap of $553.57 million...I guess you could call it a mid-cap..correct me if I have that wrong....with a trailing p/e dirt cheap...should I say cheap as chicken feed...or just cheep cheep?....of 10.41. Price/sales also cheep cheep at 0.57.
There are 12.97 million shares outstanding with only 4.0 million of them that float. Only 73,000 shares are out short...representing 2.43 trading days...this was as of 11/10/03. The stock DOES pay a dividend on top of all of this of $.48/share representing a 1.25% yield, and DID split their stock last in February of 1995 with a 3:2 split at that time.
OK...this is a GREAT stock. I would be buying this stock if I didn't have all of that MARGIN....I like the TIMELINESS of this issue, the GREAT recent earnings report, the CONSISTENT revenue growth, the GROWING free cash flow, the LOW p/e, and it even pays a dividend. Do you think it does the dishes and vacuuums too? Anyhow, I am being silly, probably too much egg nog.
Thanks again for stopping by! Please be sure to visit again! If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, feel free to leave them right here under "comments" on the website...you can click on comments to read some of the comments we have received...or email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
Tuesday, 23 December 2003
December 23, 2003 Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC)
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and checking on this site. I never know really who you guys are but I get a click on the counter here so even though you are tip-toeing through...I know somebody has been visiting! Thank goodness....I feel like I should leave milk and cookies...kind of like you guys came down the chimney sort of Santa Claus style! :)
Our last post was a bit pricey but I think this one might be a better value...see what you think! Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC) "...provides information technology services through outsourcing (Operating a customer's technology infrastructure), systems integration (designing, developing & implementing information systems) and IT and management consulting services" according to Money.cnn.com. As I write, CSC is trading at $43.80 up $1.95 or 4.66% on the day. I guess if you get a portion of a $3.35 billion contract from the United Kingdom to assist with their nationalized health service...well that just might be worth a nice bump in the stock price!
Looking through Yahoo.com for the latest earnings report, I found a story released on November 11, 2003, from PRNewswire-First call where their second quarter results were reported. For the quarter ended October 3, 2003, revenues were $3.59 billion, a 32% increase over 2002, net income was $108.1 million compared to $92.9 million last year, and on a diluted earnings per share basis: $.57/share in 2003, vs $.54/share in 2002.
Morningstar.com shows revenue growth from $8.1 billion in 1999, $9.4 billion in 2000, $10.5 billion in 2001, $11.4 billion in 2002, $11.3 billion in 2003 (the hiccup), and $13.019 billion in the trailing twelve months. With the recent leap in revenue in the latest quarter, 2004 should be a very good year (imho).
Earnings have grown slightly erratically from $2.12 in 1999 to $2.60 in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow which was ($43) million in 2001, improved to $510 million in 2003 and was $581 million in the trailing twelve months.
Balance sheet is decent if not overwhelmingly impressive with $199.1 million in cash and $4.06 billion in other current assets vs. $2.9 billion in current liabilities and $3.03 billion in long-term liabilities.
The "key statistics" on Yahoo.com confirm my impression that this is a much better value than the previous post. The Market Cap is at $8.2 billion, the trailing p/e is very nice at 16.79 with a forward p/e (fye 28-Mar-05) at 13.41. Thus, the PEG ratio is only 1.17, and the Price/sales is at 0.60.
Yahoo reports 187 million shares outstanding with 186.50 million of them that float. There are 5.89 million shares out short...quite a few!....for a raio of 6.045 which represents the # of days of trading for the short sellers to cover their sale of borrowed shares...No dividend is paid, and the last split was a 2:1 in March, 1998.
I think this is a great stock in my humble opinion. Of course, check with your own financial advisor to make sure it is suitable for you! The news is there today....contract with U.K. worth a portion of $3.35 billion is impressive...the record of improving revenue, earnings, free cash flow, a satisfactory balance sheet and a PEG just over 1.0 with a price/sales under 1.0. The large number of short sales just represents pent up BUYING demand waiting to be unleashed on the market. If I find a few $'s to buy a few shares, I just might make the plunge...but you know the old story about MARGIN...so probably sitting on my hands.
Thanks for stopping by. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to leave them right here on the website or email me at email@example.com
December 23, 2003 Ventana Medical Systems (VMSI)
Hello Friends! Thanks again for stopping by. I have noticed that some of you are starting to leave comments here and I am flattered and encouraged. Hopefully, we can develop some nice discussions right here and all of us learn something about investments that is new! (Sounds so Pollyannish don't you think....maybe we can all say what we are "glad" about?) As always, please, and I repeat, PLEASE remember to consult with your investment advisor prior to making any decisions about stocks discussed here. I am an amateur and am learning myself and many of these investments may or may not be profitable or suitable for you!
Looking through the lists of stocks with big moves I certainly DID come across RIMM, with a big move today, however, looking closer at that stock I found it still to be cash flow negative...so not quite a pick for this site. What did hit me as provocative however, was Ventana Medical Systems, Inc. (VMSI). This stock, which I do not own any shares of, does meet our criteria. As I write, VMSI is trading at $39.80, up $2.80 or 7.57% on the day.
According to money.cnn.com, Ventana "...develops, manufactures and markets instruments and reagents that automate diagnostic procedures used for the molecular analysis of cells."
Looking for the latest quarter on Yahoo.com, I found that on October 24, 2003, VSMI reported their third quarter results for the period ended September 30, 2003. Sales were $32.0 million, an 18% increase over the same period in 2002. Net income for the quarter was $3.3 million compared to $0.5 million in 2002. Earnings per share were $.19 vs. $.03 in 2002.
Looking at Morningstar.com, we find steady revenue growth from $47.7 milion in 1998, $69.4 million in 1999, $71.1 million in 2000, $87.8 million in 2001, $105.4 million in 2002 and $120.2 million in the trailing twelve months.
Earnings have been frankly all over the place but were $.11 in 1998 to $.53 in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow has also been generally improving from ($13) million in 2000 to $16 million in the trailing twelve months.
The balance sheet per Morningstar.com is $27.8 million in cash and $38.7 million in other current assets vs $22.1 million in current liabilities and $2.3 million in long term debt.
According to Yahoo.com "key statistics", the market cap is $665.94 million, the trailing p/e is a bit rich at 57.91, PEG is rich at 2.43 with 4.97 for price/sales. There are 16.79 million shares outstanding with 14.00 million that float. There are 924,000 shares out short as of 11/10/03 per Yahoo, representing a big short ratio of 8.25 trading days. No dividend is paid, and no stock splits are reported on Yahoo.
Overall, this is a great company with a steady history of revenue, earnings, and free cash flow growth. However, on a valuation basis, the p/e isn't cheap and the PEG is over 2.0. So no bargain. Something to think about anyhow!
Thanks again for stopping by! Please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org or leave your comments right on the website!
Monday, 22 December 2003
"Six Months Ago" A longer term view from the week of June 9, 2003
Hello Friends! Thanks for stopping by. I am not sure WHO all of you are who stop by but we are seeing lots more page views around these parts. Would love to hear from you or have you post comments right on this Blog. I need someone to break the ice! Anyway, if you are looking for investment ideas, you are welcome, but please remember to check with your own investment advisor to see if any of the ideas posted right here are suitable for you.
It has been a bit over six months since the week of June 9, 2003, and it is nice to look back and see if any of the posts here have done well...and what their average performance was over this time period. During the week of June 9, 2003, I posted nine stock selections. Let's take a look at how they have performed! I do not own any of these stocks at this time...and only indirectly own a few shares of OSK in my stock club!
The first stock on the list is Accredited Home Lenders (LEND) which was listed here at $19.58. The last trade today, 12/22/03, was for $30.74. This was a great performance with a gain of $11.16 during this time or 57%. On October 23, 2003, LEND reported their 3rd quarter results for the period ended September 30, 2003. As reported on Yahoo.com from BUSINESS WIRE, revenues were $116.2 million for the quarter an increase of 89%, Net Income was $29.4 million or $1.40/share, an increase of 161% over net income of $11.3 million reported in 2002. This stock is still on track!
Next, I selected Caremark Rx (CMX) at $24.66 on 6/10/03. CMX closed today, 12/22/03, at $25.25 for a gain of $.59/share. Not as exciting as LEND, this stock had a gain of 2.4%. Latest earnings were released on October 28, 2003, as reported by Yahoo.com from BUSINESS WIRE. Revenues during the quarter totaled $2.3 billion, an increase of 32% over the same period in 2002. Diluted earnings/share increased 45% to $.29 from
$.20/share last year. This stock appears to be on track as well.
Also on June 10, 2003, I picked Packeteer (PKTR) at $15.10. PKTR closed today, 12/22/03, at $17.25. This represents a gain of $2.15/share or 14.2%. On October 16, 2003, PKTR announced their third quarter results for the period ended September 30, 2003. As reported on Yahoo.com and picked up from PRNewswire-FirstCall, revenues for the third quarter were $18.4 million, an increase of 5% from the $17.5 million in the quarter last year. Net income was $3.0 million or $.09/share compared to $2.6 million or $.08/share last year. The stock still represents a growing company but the rate of growth in revenues and earnings concerns me. I don't think I would be an active buyer of this stock with that earnings report.
Also on 6/10/03, I selected Pediatrix (PDX) at $38.80. PDX closed today, 12/22/03, at $54.31. This is a gain of $15.51 or 40%. On November 5, 2003, PDX reported results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2003. Quarterly revenue was $145.5 million, an increase of 19%. Net income was $23.5 million, an increase of 21% from the prior year. On a per share basis Pediatrix earned $.97 for the three months compared to $.73/share for the same period last year. These are still great results and the stock is right on track.
June 11, 2003, found me listing WebEx Communications (WEBX) at $14.41. WEBX closed today, 12/22/03, at $19.89, for a gain of $5.48 or 38%. On October 16, 2003, as reported on Yahoo.com from a story by PRNewswire-FirstCall, WEBX reported their third quarter results for the period ended September 30, 2003. Revenues for the quarter were $48.8 million a 33% increase from the prior year and a SEQUENTIAL 9% increase (from the prior quarter). Net income was $11.2 million or $.25/diluted share vs $5.0 million or $.12/diluted share for 2002. These are great results and the stock still looks attractive to me.
Our one home builder for the week was Lennar (LEN) which was selected on June 11, 2003, at $75.45. LEN closed today, 12/22/03, at $98.10, for a gain of $22.65 or 30%. On 12/15/03, according to Yahoo.com from a story from Dow Jones Business News, LEN reported their 4th quarter results for the period ended November 30, 2003. Revenue for the quarter was $2.94 billion 13% from the prior year. Net income was $283.2 million or $3.38/share compared to $225 million, or $2.87/share last year. This stock is on track, and in fact, has recently announced plans for a 2:1 stock split.
Charles River Associates was selected on 6/12/03 at $27.95. CRAI closed today, 12/22/03, at $30.53. This represents a gain of $2.58 or 9.2% during this period. Charles River announced their third quarter results for the period ended September 5, 2003, on October 2, 2003. This was picked up by Yahoo.com from BUSINESS WIRE. Revenues for third fiscal quarter increased 17.6% to $49.4 milion vs. $42.0 million last year during this period. Net Income for the third fiscal quarter increased 31.5% to $3.4 million or $.34 /share vs $2.6 million or $.28/share last year. This company appears to be doing just fine!
Oshkosh Truck (OSK) was picked on this site on 6/12/03 at $62.50/share. OSK split 2:1 on 8/14/03. Thus, our effective split-adjusted cost was $31.25/share for our selection. OSK closed today, 12/22/03, at $50.51/share for a gain of $19.25/share or 61.6%. On October 28, 2003, as reported on Yahoo.com, from BUSINESS WIRE, OSK reported results for their fourth quarter ended September 30, 2003. Sales for the quarter increased 6.5% to $508.1 million and operating income increased 38.7% to $43.6 million, compared to $31.4 million last year. Net income was up 50.8% to $26.0 million or $.74/share compared to $17.2 million or $.50/share last year. This is really a very nice result and explains our continued success with this selection!
Our final selection for the week was Lannett Corp (LCI) at $21.53 on 6/13/03. LCI closed today at $17.00 for a loss of ($4.53) or (21%). On October 29, 2003, as reported by Yahoo.com from a story run on PRNewswire-FirstCall, Lannett reported results for the quarter ended September 30, 2003. Net sales increased 45% to $13.2 million from $9.1 million the prior year. Net income increased 34% to $3.43 million from $2.55 million in 2002. On a per share basis, this was $.17/share vs $.13/share last year. Even though this stock has handed us a LOSS, the stock deserves continued inspection as the numbers just reported do appear imho quite good.
Looking at the nine stocks, we can appreciate what a FABULOUS performance they have had. (Too bad I don't own any!). The average performance for these nine issues (eight with a gain and only one with a loss) is a gain of 25.7%. Not too shabby!
Thanks again for stopping by! Remember to discuss these stocks with YOUR financial advisor, and be sure to drop me a line if you have any questions, comments, or what I love best, words of encouragement! You can reach me at email@example.com
Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 5:21 PM CST
Updated: Monday, 22 December 2003 5:23 PM CST
December 22, 2003 CompuDyne (CDCY)
Hello Friends! I hope you all had a great weekend. I know mine certainly was hectic. This morning the news carried the story of the terror alert for the United States being raised to Orange, the second highest level. This made the market a little nervous, but made us once again aware of the risks of day-to-day life in our once tranquil nation. Anyway, CompuDyne (CDCY) may be the stock to turn to in troubled times. Just like Ceradyne and Armor Holdings which we have mentioned already on this site, CDCY is involved in National Defense and may benefit from the increased spending on national security. Currently, CDCY is trading at $10.051 up $.0851 or 9.25%.
According to money.cnn.com, CompuDyne (CDCY) "...designs, installs and maintains detention hardware and security systems; manufactures embassy grade attack resistant windows and doors; and provides other security/detention related services and products."
On November 6, 2003, as picked up by Yahoo Finance and reported by BUSINESS WIRE, CompuDyne (CDCY), reported their third quarter results for the quarter ended September 30, 2003. Revenues for the third quarter were $53.1 million, an increase of $11.7 million or 28.4% over the same quarter last year. Net income for the third quarter was $1.0 million an increase of $.8 million or 404% over the third quarter 2002 results. Earnings per share in 2003 were $.12 compared to $.02 in the third quarter of 2002.
Morningstar.com shows an increasing revenue picture with only a couple of "hiccups". Revenue in 1998 was $32 million, $111 million in 1999, $131 million in 2000, $127 million in 2001 (hiccup), $156 million in 2002 and $180 million in the trailing twelve months. Extrapolating the current quarter, the company is operating at an over $200 million rate presently.
Free cash flow has been inconsistent but improving recently. $1 million reported in 2000, ($4) million in 2001, ($1) million in 2002 and $10 million in the trailing twelve months.
The balance sheet as presented on Morningstar looks nice with $4.1 million in cash and $68.3 million in other current assets...as opposed to $43.7 million in current liabilities and $21.4 million in long-term liabilities.
Key statistics shows this company with a TINY market cap of $79.68 million. The trailing p/e is at 26.52 and the forward p/e is at 12.43 which are both nice numbers. The PEG is at 0.57, one of the lowest on this site, and the price/sales also cheap at 0.38.
There are 7.93 million shares outstanding but only 5.60 million of them float. Currently there are 66,000 shares out short (as of 11/10/03) representing 1.158 trading days. No dividend is paid and no stock dividend noted on Yahoo.
I like this stock quite a bit. I do not currently own any shares...and need to sell a winning issue before adding another position...but this would be a good candidate to purchase. One of my only concerns is that it is such a tiny company. Often this brings added volatility...but certainly the valuation of this stock is nice to see!
Thanks again for stopping by. Please be sure to consult with your investment advisor prior to making any decisions based on material on this website. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, you can email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
Sunday, 21 December 2003
"How are we doing?" A look back on the week of October 27, 2003
Well we are getting deep into the Holiday Season now and it will soon be 2004. Doesn't it seem like yesterday when we were worrying about Y2K instead of 9/11? Times do change quickly.
As always, remember to consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions based on materials on this website!
During the week of October 27, 2003, I posted six stocks on this website: Altiris (ATRS) and Portfolio Recovery Associates (PRAA) on 10/28/03, Spectralink (SLNK) and OPNET Technologies (OPNT) on 10/29/03, and NetScreen Technologies (NSCN) and Kyphon (KYPH) on 10/30/03.
Altiris closed 12/19/03 at $33.48 for a gain of $1.55 or 4.9% during this period.
Portfolio Research Associates closed at $27.50 on 12/19/03 for a gain of $.57 or 2.1%.
SpectraLink closed 12/19/03 at $18.14 for a loss of ($.40) or (2.2%).
OPNET Technologies closed 12/19/03 at $16.25 for a gain of $2.15 or 15.2%.
NetScreen Technologies closed 12/19/03 at $24.31 for a loss of ($2.85) or (10.5%).
Finally, Kyphon closed 12/19/03 at $25.08 for a loss of ($4.07) or (14.0%).
The last 7 weeks were not exceptionally kind for our picks which had an average loss of (.75%). Not exceptionally weak yet nothing to write home about!
Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, please feel free to email me at email@example.com
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