Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Sunday, 25 January 2004
"Seven Months Ago" A longer term view examining the week of 6/30/03
Hello Friends! I am a bit behind here and am playing catch-up....I have the website, prices, and trading portfolio updated if you link to the main site...it is a bit of a task and I need to do that at least once/month! Should be doing a six month review but you know how that goes...now we are seven months out...so let's take a look at the picks from then. As always, I would like to encourage you to use your own due diligence before making any stock picks based on information on this website and please consult with your investment advisors!
I made five selections during the week of June 30, 2003. On June 30, 2003, I posted TransMontaigne (TMG)
at $6.48. TMG closed 1/23/04 at $6.90 for a gain of $.42 or 6.5%. On November 14, 2003, TMG announced results for the three months ended September 30, 2003. This was reported on Yahoo
and showed that revenue increased nicely to $2.55 billion from $1.74 billion the prior year. On a per share basis this was $.03/share vs a loss of $(0.01)/share the prior year. It appears this stock is on track.
The second stock posted that week
was ChoicePoint (CPS). CPS was selected on 7/1/03 at $36.14. CPS closed on 1/23/04 at $37.60 for a gain of $1.46 or 4.0%. On January 22, 2004, ChoicePoint reported fourth quarter results
which included a revenue of $200.0 million, an increase of 5% over the prior year same quarter results, and earnings per share, excluding a non-recurring charge, was $.35 compared to $.35 the prior year. In my humble opinion, this is no longer an exciting growth picture...at least in the latest quarter....and while I would not rush to sell, I would not be rushing to buy this issue either.
The third selection that was posted was Digital River
which was posted on 7/2/03 at $21.69. DRIV closed on 1/23/04 at $25.85 for a gain of $2.16 or 10.0%. DRIV posted their latest "10-Q"
on November 13, 2003, and reported that revenue grew from $18.87 million in 2002 to $26.75 million in the same quarter ended September 30th in 2003. This company appears to be on track!
The fourth selection that was Metrologic Instruments that was posted on Bob's Advice
on 7/2/03 at $35.60. MTLG split 2:1 on 10/31/03, making our effective stock price at $17.80. MTLG closed 1/23/04 at $29.67 for a gain of $11.87 or 66.7%. On October 23, 2003, MTLG released third quarter results
which showed sales growing 17% to $32.6 million and net income for the quarter at $.28/share vs $.03/share the prior year. The company appears to be on track for strong growth!
The final stock for the week was Mid Atlantic Medical Services (MMD) which was posted on Bob's Advice
on July 2, 2003, at $55.56. MME closed on 1/23/04 at $66.78 for a gain of $11.22 or 20.2%. MME reported their third quarter earnings results
on 11/6/03. Net income was $46 million or $1.10/share vs $22 million or $.54/share the prior year for the quarter. The company appears to be doing just fine!
Summarizing, we posted five stocks with an average gain of 21.48%. Now most of the gain was in MTLG, and MME....but the other stocks had small but positive gains. We must realize, that this fine performance was during a period of terrific market performance...but still...what the heck it was pretty good!
Thanks again for stopping by! I think I am just about caught up with my housekeeping around here! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here on the website or you can email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
Friday, 23 January 2004
"Trading Transparency" SBUX, EXPO
Hello Friends! I am not really finding any new stocks to my liking today....and in fact not much this week! This is the first week since last week....which is a different story....that I haven't posted any new picks. Maybe I am just getting more selective? Several stocks look interesting, but each time I review them there is something wrong. Oh well...
Anyway, with my positions up to 25 and my margin balance way out of control, I pushed my sale points a little today and sold 15 shares of SBUX (out of 75) at $35.70 and sold 50 shares of EXPO (out of 200) at $24.52.
Starbucks was initially acquired on 1/24/03, almost exactly one year ago at a cost of $22.81. Thus we had a gain of 56.5% (just about at our 60% sale point) and having just 75 shares, I just wanted to peel off 15. (With Fidelity's $8/transaction trading this wasn't a real problem).
This was the first sale from our 200 share purchase of Exponent, Inc. (EXPO) which was acquired on 10/21/03 at $19.77. We thus had a gain of $4.75 or 24%...not quite at our 30% sale goal...but with all of our margin...not too bad!
Anyway, just keeping you posted on our continued trading activity in my account. Regards to all of my friends!
Thursday, 22 January 2004
"How are we doing?" A look back on the week of November 17, 2003
Hello Friends! I am still trying to catch up here. Contrary to what you might think, I actually DO have a day job! Anyhow, I like to post some comments about past picks...ususally on weekends...but we are a bit behind so let's pick up where we left off. I made three selections (thank goodness just three!) during the week of November 17, 2003, here on the BLOG: Sybron Dental Specialties (SYD) wasposted here
on November 18, 2003 at $25.80; Daktronics was posted on Bobs Advice
on November 19, 2003 at $17.74, and finally, Hot Topic (HOTT) was posted here
on November 20, 2003 at $28.61.
SYD closed today, 1/22/04, at $30.46 for a gain of 18.1%. DAKT closed today, 1/22/04, at $26.60, for a gain of $8.86 or 50.0%; and finally, HOTT closed today on 1/22/04 at $31.85 for a gain of $3.24 or 11.3%.
Overall this was a FANTASTIC 8 week performance as the three stocks averaged a return of 26.5% over this relatively short period. We don't ALWAYS do this well over the short-term, but the market has been strong, and when the market is strong, it seems that our selections do quite well!
Thanks again for stopping by! Please email me at email@example.com if you have any questions, comments or words of encouragement!
"Trading Transparency" CAI
Hello Friends! Was looking today for some new candidates but didn't find anything interesting imho. However, I saw that CACI Intl (CAI), had a nice move today. I posted CAI
first on June 27, 2003, at a price of $34.27. I purchased 150 shares of CAI today at $46.76 on good earnings news
. They reported revenue up 29% for the quarter ended December 31, 2003, and net income up 35% to $14.3 million. In addition, they increased guidance for the coming year. CAI closed today at $46.41 (under what I paid...shucks), up $3.26 or 7.56% on the day in an otherwise lackluster session.
Anyhow, just wanted to keep all of you up to date on activity in my trading portfolio and share with you my rationale for my actions. Please consult with your investment advisors before acting on any information on this website....just always remember to do the due diligence!
Thanks for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
January 22, 2004 "Update on Cree (CREE)"
Hello Friends! I apologize for being away from my site this past week. Was out of town....and away from my computer. You KNOW I was suffering from withdrawal! I look forward to scanning those greatest movers each day....and now that I have received a couple of emails from all of you, I know there are even visitors at this website! As always, please remember to do your own due diligence before making any purchases based on information on this website!
On January 16, 2004, I posted an entry
on Cree, Inc., indicating that I purchased some shares. Indeed, in my trading account, I purchased 200 shares of Cree, Inc. (CREE) at $25.087. CREE closed yesterday, 1/22/04, at $28.74 so that was a timely purchase!
Frankly, I thought I had posted information on this website about CREE earlier. Indeed, I first posted on CREE
on September 25, 2003 when it was trading at $22.16. You can read more about this semiconductor stock by clicking on this link.
What drove CREE higher, was a second quarter earnings report
that was released on January 15th, the day before I made a purchase on the stock price spike. During the quarter ended December 28, 2003, CREE earned $13 million or $.17/share up sharply from $9 million or $.12/share the year earlier. Sales also rose 28% to $72.7 million from $56.7 million last year. I often find stocks with price spikes, as would make sense, after good earnings report....and this IS the earnings season.
Anyhow, I am back in business, and wanted to let you know that BOBSADVICE was still cranking! Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement...please feel free to post them here or email me at email@example.com
(p.s. I will get to work on CDCY ASAP..which is not yet doing quite as well as CREE....down about 4% since my purchase!).
Wednesday, 21 January 2004
"Trading Transparency" QSII
Hello Friends! Thanks for stopping by. I have been away from my computer and internet connection this past week....I thought I was going into withdrawal! The market has been kind overall to my 'trading portfolio' and Quality Systems (QSII) in particular has been good to me!
Quality Systems (QSII) was acquired on 7/28/03 for a cost basis of $31.00/share for 300 shares. On August 19, 2003, I sold 100 shares at $38.85 for a gain of $786.34. On August 22, 2003, another 50 shares were sold at $41.95 for a gain of $533.62. Today, hitting just about a 90% gain, I sold 30 shares of QSII for $58.88/share. I am leaving 120 shares in the trading account.
What I have done here, is try to sell 1/4 of shares at about a 30% gain (not exactly), another 1/4 at a 60% gain, and a third fourth at about a 90% gain. If the stock continues to appreciate, I anticipate selling an additional 25% of the shares (about 30) if the stock hits a 120% gain! (Wish me luck!)
Anyway, I want to keep updating all of you on what and why I do what I do! Meanwhile, I am at 24 positions again and will need to watch for that 25th!
Thanks again for stopping by and please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org, if you have any questions, comments or words of encouragement!
Tuesday, 20 January 2004
"Trading Transparency" CDCY
I just picked up 400 shares of CDCY, a security corporation making a move today, in my trading account. I will update this later! Thanks for stopping by!
"Trading Transparency" SYNO
Hello Friends! I am back in business. SYNO relayed that earnings and revenue would be below expectations for the first quarter. With a nice profit on this one, I have gone ahead and sold 150 remaining shares this morning at the market. Details to follow! Regards!
Friday, 16 January 2004
"Trading transparency" CREE
Hello Friends! Have been away from my computer for awhile....Picked up 200 shares of CREE on good earnings news and a pop in the price today. Will post in a few days to update the site!
Friday, 9 January 2004
"Trading Transparency" SRDX,, AMMD
Hello Friends!...This afternoon, unfortunately imho, SRDX hit and passed my 8% "mental" stop and I placed a sell order and sold 250 shares at $22.46. SRDX was recently purchased on 12/30/03 at $24.55, and thus we had incurred just over an 8% loss...and rules are rules and out it went!
In addition, I liked what I read (and wrote) about American Medical Systems (AMMD) and purchased 200 shares at $25.78 a few moments ago!
Thanks for stopping by!
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