Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Saturday, 31 January 2004
"Seven Months Ago" A longer term view examining the week of July 7, 2003
Hello Friends! It is a quiet Saturday afternoon around here and a good time to post on the BLOG about how we have been overall been doing. I try this to allow for some accountability. I post lots of ideas....but in order to know whether they make sense or not we REALLY need to follow-up and check!
The week of July 7, 2003, was not a busy one for my BLOG. In fact, I only posted two selections: FindWhat.com (FWHT) on 7/7/03 at $22.16, and WebSense (WBSN) on 7/8/03 at $20.26. If you have been reading my other entries, you will realize that I have FINALLY found room and the opportunity to purchase some WBSN in my trading account. I have never owned any FWHT.
Since posting FWHY on Bob's Advice
at $22.16, the stock has declined slightly and closed yesterday, 1/30/04, at $19.15, for a loss of $(3.01) or (13.6)%. Overall, the business situation for FindWhat appears to be intact. On December 10, 2003, FWHT announced earnings projections
for 2003. They indicated that revenue in 2003 should be over $71.5 million, and increase of 67% over 2002 revenue of $42.8 million. They also announced that fourth quarter 2003 revenue to be at least $20.3 million, a 14% sequential increase in revenue and a year-over-year increase of 52% versus fourth quarter 2002.
I posted Websense
on the blog on 7/8/03 at $20.26. WBSN has outperformed FWHT and closed on 1/30/04 at $32.90 for a nice gain of $12.64 or 62.4%. WBSN announced a record fourth quarter
earnings report on 1/28/04. Revenue was a record $22.7 million, a 31% increase from the fourth quarter of 2002 and net income was $4.5 million or $.19/share, compared to $6.5 million or $.28/share, which included a tax benefit of $1.4 million. So revenue was solid but earnings were a bit soft relative to the prior year...but apparently the sharp increase in deferred revenue was enough to satisfy the street and the stock moved ahead.
Anyhow, with just two stocks, we had one with a loss of (13.6)%, and one with a big gain of 62.4% for an average performance of a substantial gain of 24.25%.
Thanks again for stopping by! Please remember to do your own due diligence before acting on any stock picks on this website and please consult with your investment advisor as I am an amateur investor and there are professionals out there that can advise you whether individual stock selections are appropriate for you!
If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here or email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
"How are we doing?" Looking back on the week of November 24, 2003
Hello Friends! I am trying to stay up with all of the tasks of having a BLOG. Sort of like homework every day my kids would say. Anyhow, November 24, 2003, was the week of escaping everything except "Death and Taxes". Hmmm..now which famous writer said THAT? Anyway, I truly only made two selections for that week: Odyssey Healthcare (ODSY) a hospice service company, at $35.94, and H&R Block, your local tax preparer, at $53.41.
When I posted ODSY
on Bob's Advice on 11/24/03, it was trading at $35.94. It closed yesterday, 1/30/04, at $29.42 for a loss of $(6.52) or (18.1)%.
When I posted HRB
on this site, it was trading at $53.41 on 11/26/03. HRB closed yesterday, 1/30/04, at $57.93 for a gain of $4.52 or 8.5%.
During this eight week period these two stocks almost cancelled each other out, however the loss was greater and the average performance for the two was a loss of (4.8)%. Perhaps I should avoid death, go long on taxes, and prefer growth? Enough philosophizing....thanks for stopping by! Remember to always do your own due diligence on all of these selections and consult with your investment advisors before taking any action.
Regards and Have a Great Weekend!
Friday, 30 January 2004
January 30, 2004 Dendrite International, Inc. (DRTE)
Hello Friends! It sure is cold here in the upper Midwest. I hope all of you are staying inside and bundling up when going out! The market is a bit rocky still but the NASDAQ is holding up fairly well...at least there are no stocks to unload today!
Looking through the gainers today, I came across Dendrite International (DRTE). As I write, they are trading at $16.99 up $2.73 on the day or 19.14%. According to the money.cnn.com snapshot
, Dendrite "...is a worldwide supplier of sales force software products and support services to the pharmaceutical industry."
Once again, the driving force in the price move was an excellent fourth quarter 2003 earnings report
. This company has been acquiring other companies and recently picked up Synavant, Inc. Including this, revenues for the quarter were up to $99 million from $57 million the prior year, a 74% gain, and net income was $5.8 million in 2003 vs $4.7 million in 2002 or on a per share basis came in at $.14/share in the fourth quarter of 2003 vs $.12/share in 2002.
Looking at the Morningstar.com "5-yr Restated" data
, we find that this has been a steadily growing company with revenue of $131 million in 1998, $173 million in 1999, $214 million in 2000, $227 million in 2001, $226 million in 2002 and $279 million in the trailing twelve months.
Earnings per share have been erratic with $.32/share reported in 1998, increasing only to $.38/share in 2002 and $.48 reported in the trailing twelve months.
Free cash flow, while not growing steadily, has been nicely positive at $12 million in 2000, $22 million in 2001, $13 million in 2002 and $16 million in the trailing twelve months.
Their balance sheet, per Morningstar, looks quite nice with $26.2 million in cash and $86.4 million in other current assets with $80.4 million in current liabilities reported and only $10.0 million in long-term debt.
Taking a look at "key statistics" on Yahoo.com
, we find that the Market Cap is a small $689.92 million. The trailing p/e is moderate at 33.30, with a forward p/e (for fiscal year 2004 estimates) at 20.37. The PEG is at 1.50 which isn't bad and the price/sales not too expensive at 2.08.
Yahoo reports that there are 40.63 million shares outstanding with 36.80 million of them that float. Of these, there are 1.81 million shares out short...representing 4.93% of the float as of 1/8/04...or 9.399 trading days (short ratio). This short ratio is actually quite high and we may be witnessing a bit of a short squeeze today.
No dividend is paid and the last stock split was a 3:2 in October, 1999.
Overall, this is an attractive issue. As you know if you read this BLOG, I am loaded down with margin, have my 25 positions I am planning today....so am not in the market for any shares at this time and do not indeed own any! But you never know what the future may hold!
Thanks again for stopping by! As always, please exercise due diligence when making investment decisions and consult with your investment advisor if you have any questions about your decisions. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement (my favorite) for me, please drop me a line at email@example.com or leave the comments right here on the website!
Thursday, 29 January 2004
"Trading Transparency" WBSN
O.K. the market is turning back up for now....will it close on the rebound or slide right back? I don't know. But I saw that Websense (WBSN) made the list of largest gainers. This was a July 8, 2003, stock pick on this site
at $20.26. Today, WBSN is trading at $31.783 up $4.312 on the day as I write on good fourth quarter earnings news
. Basically, revenue for the quarter ended 12/31/03 was $22.7 million an increase of 31% over last year and income was $7.2 million, an increase of 42% over the prior year's fourth quarter.
To cut to the chase, I purchased 200 shares of WBSN at $31.499 a few moments in my trading account. I am back to 25 positions. Wish me luck!
"Trading Transparency" CLZR
Another one bites the dust. In the midst of this NASDAQ correction, all of my recent selections are at risk. Sometimes those that move up the fastest also correct the steepest...and if you don't have any buffer...and you stick to an 8% stop...there you go. Candela (CLZR), a great company imho, just lost me 9% and I pulled the plug. I just sold my 300 shares at an average cost of $24.021....and the purchase hasn't even settled! I puchased 300 shares at $26.43 on 1/28/04...last time I checked that was Yesterday!
Hopefully, we don't get caught with our financial pants down on my purchase today.
"Trading Transparency" CYTC
O.K. so I only waited 90 seconds before posting CYTC and buying some shares but what the heck? Anyhow, probably should have waited because the market is STILL in the midst of a correction....but let's see if we can ride this out. My CLZR is pushing an 8% loss and might be unloaded soon....hopefully we can stay above water on that and this purchase.
Now for the specifics, I purchased 500 shares of CYTC a few moments ago at $14.84.
Thanks again for visiting!
January 29, 2004 Cytyc Corporation (CYTC)
Hello Friends! Thanks again for stopping by. I really do appreciate your visits and love when you drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org . Helps me know you guys are out there!
I found another one...and this looks like a keeper! In what seems to be a similar business to Digene (DIGE) which is posted elsewhere on this BLOG, Cytyc Corporation (CYTC), according to the money.cnn.com snapshot
"...designs, develops, manufactures and markets a sample preparation system for medical diagnostic applications." They appear to be involved in Pap Test for cervical cancer screening that requires a microscopic inspection of cervical cells. Anyway, CYTC is having a nice day today trading, as I write, at $14.89 up $.65 or 4.57% on the day.
I hope I don't sound like a broken record, or does anyone remember that expression anymore?, but CYTC jumped today after announcing a great fourth quarter 2003 earnings report
. They reported, for the quarter ended December 31, 2003, that sales were a record $78.3 million, a 17% increase over the $66.7 million reported in the fourth quarter of 2002. Net income for the quarter was $19.5 million or $.17/share compared to $17.9 million or $.15/share in the same quarter in 2002.
Looking at the Morningstar.com 5-yr restated financials
, we find that revenue has been growing steadily from $44.3 million in 1998, $81.1 million in 1999, $142.1 million in 2000, $221.0 million in 2001, $236.5 million in 2002, and $291.5 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings/share have grown very steadily from $(.11) in 1998 to $.65/share in the trailing twelve months.
Free cash flow has also grown steadily from $15 million in 2000, $82 million in 2001, and $91 million in 2002, with $88 million reported in the trailing twelve months.
Gorgeous! is the only way I can describe their balance sheet...with $87.1 million in cash and $145.6 million in other current assets with $42.2 million in current liabilities and NO long-term liabilities reported on Morningstar.com. Now that is what I call a NICE balance sheet!
Looking at "key statistics" for CYTC on Yahoo.com
, we find the market cap at $1.62 Billion. The trailing p/e isn't bad at all at 18.49 and the PEG is even fairly reasonable at 1.39. Price/sales on this one is a bit steep at 5.36.
There are 109.70 million shares outstanding with 108.70 million of them that float. There are 3.02 million shares out short representing 2.78% of the float or 3.118 trading days as of 1/8/04. No cash dividend is paid and the last stock dividend was a 3:1 split on 8/5/01 per Yahoo.
I actually like this stock a lot. They have great growth numbers, a reasonable p/e and PEG, and a beautiful balance sheet. Like a few others in the portfolio, this stock IS in the medical field, but I like it because of the numbers and not that they are involved in thin-film slides for Pap smears. This one may find a place in my portfolio soon...you know I am looking for #25 to fill out the trading portfolio!
Thanks again for stopping by. Please do your own due diligence and consult with your investment advisor before making any of your own investment decisions based on information on this website!
Regards to all!
January 29, 2004 Alliance Data Systems (ADS)
Hello Friends! I am in the market for a 25th stock for my portfolio and this one may fit the bill. Alliance Data Systems (ADS), according to the money.cnn.com snapshot
"...provides electronic transaction services, credit services and loyalty and database marketing services." ADS is currently trading at $29.50 up $2.30 or 8.46% on the day.
Like so many of my "picks" on this site, ADS had a nice jump in the market today on the heels of an excellent fourth quarter earnings report
. For the period ended December 31, 2003, revenue increased 27% to $298.3 million compared to $235.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2002. Net income was up 96% to $19.8 million in the quarter or $.24/share compared to $10.1 million or $.13/share in the same quarter in 2002.
Reviewing the 5-yr restated financials on Morningstar
, we find that revenue has been increasing steadily since 1998 when it was $410.9 million, $583.1 million in 1999, $678.2 million in 2000, $777.4 million in 2001, $871.5 million in 2002, and $980.3 million in the trailing twelve months.
Earnings/share have increased smartly from $.34/share in 2002 to $.68/share in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow has been solidly positive although no trend is seen on Morningstar, with $54 million in 2000, $132 million in 2001, $85 million in 2002 and $79 million reported in the trailing twelve months.
The balance sheet, is adequate but not as debt-free as we might like to see. They have $45.1 million in cash and $464.6 million in other current assets on the Morningstar report, plenty to cover the $465.9 million in current liabilities, leaving $524.6 million in long-term liabilities.
Looking at key statistics for ADS on Yahoo.com
, we can see that the market is a large cap $2.36 billion. The trailing p/e is at 38.14 with a forward p/e of 25.66 (for 2004 estimates). The PEG is a5 2.01 and price/sales at 2.21 so this is not selling at a discount.
There are 79.64 million shares outstanding with 62.90 million of them that float. Currently there are 968,000 shares out short (as of 1/8/04) representing 1.54% of the float or 2.734 trading days. No dividend is paid and no stock split has been reported on Yahoo.
Overall, I like this stock for its steady revenue/earnings growth. It isn't cheap by PEG ratios or p/e standards but they are growing nicely and reporting continued increases in recent quarterly reporting. Will be considering making this #25 in my portfolio!
Regards to all!
"Trading Transparency" CDCY
Hello Friends! I did not think that I would be posting a sale on this stock as soon as I have. However, with the latest swoon in the market, our latest purchases are certainly the most vulnerable to hitting our 8% loss limit. CDCY was no exception and with the stock selling today at an over 8% loss, I pulled the plug and sold my 400 shares of CDCY at $11.80. Unfortunately, CDCY was just purchased a bit over a week ago on 1/20/04 at a cost of $12.89.
Thanks for stopping by. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at email@example.com
As always, please remember to do your own due diligence before acting on any stocks described on this website and consult with your investment advisor as needed!
Wednesday, 28 January 2004
"Trading Transparency" CLZR
Reviewing my portfolio, I decided to go ahead and get back up to 25 positions, so I bought 300 shares of Candela (CLZR) at $26.399 just now. Thanks again for stopping by!
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