Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Saturday, 6 March 2004
"Seven Months Ago" A longer term view examining the week of August 11, 2003
Hello Again! I just finished posting a review of how this blog is doing seven weeks out and it was a pretty dismal performance on stocks from that week. However, longer term I still seem to do well with these picks. Remember that past performance is NO guarantee of future performance and always, yes always, do your own due diligence investigational work on all of these stocks!
The week of August 11, 2003, was a pretty quiet week for this blog. During that week, I selected Possis Medical (POSS), Techne Corp. (TECH), and Tyler Technologies (TYL) for the blog.
On August 11, 2003, Possis was selected for Bob's Advice
at a price of $17.33. POSS closed on 3/5/04 at $26.15 for a gain of $8.82 or 50.9%.
On February 18, 2004, POSS reported 2nd quarter 2004 results
for the three months ended 1/31/04. They earned $3.1 million or $.16/share, up sharply from earnings of $2.1 million or $.11/share last year. Quarterly revenue was up 22% from the prior year as well. This stock is right on track!
I posted Techne Corp (TECH)
on Bob's Advice on 8/12/03 at $32.08. TECH closed on 3/5/04 at $42.00 for a gain of $9.92 or 30.9%.
Looking for recent earnings or news, on January 27, 2004, TECH reported 2nd quarter 2004 results
for the quarter ended December 31, 2003. For the quarter, net earnings were $12.4 million or $.30/diluted share vs. $9.9 million or $.23/diluted share the prior year. Consolidated net sales for the quarter were $38.3 million, a 15% increase over the prior year's sales. This company is doing 'just fine!'
Finally, on 8/14/03, I posted Tyler Technologies (TYL)
on the blog at a price of $5.75. TYL closed 3/5/04 at $9.64 for a gain of $3.89 or 67.7%.
On February 25, 2004, TYL reported 4th quarter 2003 results
whith income from continuing operations of $3.5 million or $.08/share vs $2.6 million, or $.05/share the prior year. Total revenue for the quarter increased 7% to $39.1 million from $36.4 million the prior year. This company appears to be doing just fine!
Looking at the performance of the three stocks we find gains of 50.9%, 30.9%, 67.7%. After probably out WORST seven week performance (see the prior post), this is probably the BEST seven month performance with an average gain of 49.8%. (Unfortunately, I do not own any of these stocks!)
Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to leave them on the BLOG or email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
"How are we doing?" A look back on the week of December 29, 2003
Hello Friends! I made it to Saturday once again. Almost sounds like a REAL accomplishment. The weekend is the time I like to do a little retrospective. Preferably, taking a look back relatively short-term...about 8 weeks, and then a little longer-term...about 7 months. Pretty soon we will have some one year results and I think I will stop the 7 week review, and just take a look at 7 months and 12 months. What do you think?
Remember to always do your OWN due diligence on all of the stocks I discuss here, and quite frankly on all stocks you see mentioned in the media or the internet. Also, please consult with your investment advisor prior to taking any action on stocks mentioned here because they may or may not be suitable or even profitable for you!
During the week of December 29, 2003, I posted five stocks on this blog. They were: American Vanguard (AVD), Matrix Initiatives (MTXX), Surmodics (SRDX), Secure Computing (SCUR), and McKesson Corp. (MCK).
On December 29, 2003, I posted American Vanguard (AVD)
on this BLOG at a price of $38.69. AVD closed at $35.65 on 3/5/04 for a loss of $(3.04) or (7.9)%.
Also on December 29, 2003, I posted Matrixx Initiatives (MTXX) at $18.28. MTXX virtually collapsed in price when concerns were raised
about possible loss of sense of smell with use of their Zinc-based nasal inhaler. MTXX closed on 3/5/04 at $11.93 for a loss of $(6.35) or (34.7)%.
Surmodics (SRDX) was posted on Bob's Advice
on 12/3/03 at a price of $24.38. SRDX closed 3/5/04 at $21.08 for a loss of $(3.35) or (13.7)%.
The fourth stock posted that week
was Secure Computing at $16.78 on 12/30/03. SCUR closed at $15.46 on 3/5/04 for a loss of $(1.32) or (7.9)%.
Finally, on 1/1/04, I posted McKesson (MCK) at $32.16. MCK closed on 3/5/04 at $28.43 down $(3.73) or (11.6)%.
I cannot remember another retrospective on this site where ALL stocks were DOWN eight weeks later. It was a tough couple of months on the NASDAQ for sure, but we certainly were NOT bucking the tide for these selections. The five stocks listed had an average LOSS of (15.16)%, and that was over the short eight week period! This just goes to show you that stocks listed here CAN lose money and that careful loss limits need to be placed on these stocks to prevent losses from exceeding whatever your given limit may be. For me it is 8%.
If you would like to see what I ACTUALLY own and how the picks from 2003 and 2004 are doing, please visit the "Current Trading Portfolio"
portion of the website.
Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to leave them here or email me at email@example.com
If you do not mind, I will just answer them right on the blog. Your questions may be interesting to others and others may have ideas they would like to contribute!
Friday, 5 March 2004
March 5, 2004 Nutraceutical Intl (NUTR)
Hello Friends! Guess we made it to Friday. It is a relatively quiet day in the market with the Dow up 9.77 at 10,597.77 as I write and the NASDAQ down 3.54 at 2,051.57. Looking through the lists of movers, I came across Nutraceutical Intl (NUTR), which as I write is trading at $19.00, up $1.85 or 10.79% on the day.
As always, please exercise due diligence and do your own investigation on all of these stock market ideas before taking any action. I do not own any shares of this stock. If it would be helpful, I would also like to encourage you to use your investment advisors liberally in deciding whether any investment is appropriate or timely for you.
According to the money.cnn.com "snapshot"
, NUTR "...develops, manufactures and markets branded vitamin, mineral, herbal and specialty dietary supplements to domestic health food stores and international distributors."
Looking at the latest earnings reports, NUTR reported their first quarter 2004 results
on January 29, 2004, for the first quarter ended December 31, 2003. Net sales for the quarter jumped to $33.2 million compared to $28.9 million for the same quarter of fiscal 2003. Net income was $3.2 million this quarter or $.27/diluted share compared to $2.6 million or $.23/diluted share the prior year.
If we take a look at the "5-Yr Restated" financials
on Morningstar.com, We can see that revenue growth has NOT been very exciting, in fact fairly flat between 1999 and 2002, and just the last couple of years has improved nicely from $107 million in 1999, to $111 million in 2002, but $125 million in the trailing twelve months, and with the latest quarter at about $33 million, this should be over $130 million for 2004.
Earnings/share have also been erratic, increasing from $.42/share in 1999, to $.64/share in 2001, but dropping to a loss of $(2.03)/share in 2002, but increasing back to $1.09/share in the latest twelve months.
Free cash flow has been steady, increasing from $11 million in 2001 to $19 million in 2002 and 2003.
The balance sheet, as presented by Morningstar.com, looks nice with $2.2 million in cash and $33.8 million in other current assets, more than enough to cover both the $13.7 million in current liabilities and the $13.0 million in long-term liabilities.
If we examine the "Key Statistics"
on Yahoo.com, we can see that the Market Cap is a small cap $212.41 million. The trailing p/e is reasonable at 16.69, and for the fye 30-Sep-05, the forward P/E is 13.22. Price/sales is nice at 1.49.
Yahoo reports 11.16 million shares outstanding with 5.40 million of them that float. There are only 49,000 shares out short representing a small 0.278 trading days or 0.91% of the float. No dividend or stock split is reported on Yahoo.
I do NOT claim to be a technician, but the NUTR Point and Figure chart from Stockcharts.com
looks gorgeous, with a slightly declining share price reversed in early 2001, and with the stock heading steadily higher since that time.
NUTR has been in the news with a positive article
from Investor's Business Daily and a nice online endorsement
from TheStreet.com. All in all, everything seems to be in line for this company.
Thanks so much for stopping by again! Or thanks for the first time. I would love to hear your comments, ideas, criticisms, and most of all words of encouragement at firstname.lastname@example.org
Thursday, 4 March 2004
March 4, 2004 Isco, Inc. (ISKO)
Hello Friends! I have been juggling some of my stocks in my trading portfolio....well not really juggling...selling a couple of losers and adding a new one. I try to post all of the changes in my trading portfolio
in my Blog so everyone can see what I am actually doing as well as my thoughts on a lot of stocks that come to my attention.
As always, please do your own due diligence, that is do your homework! on everything I write and that you may read online. In addition, please be sure to consult with your investment advisor(s) before acting on any information you may read on this website.
According to the money.cnn.com "snapshot"
, Isco "...designs, manufactures and markets products used by industry and government to monitor compliance with water quality regulations and used in a variety of research and testing laboratories." ISKO had a nice day today, closing at $12.12 on the day up $1.78 or 17.21%.
What helped ISKO today, was, you will be surprised to know...a second quarter 2004 earnings report
. I am only pulling your leg when I say you will be surprised, because that is exactly what seems to drive stocks higher, at least over the short run, is earnings reports. The results for the quarter ended January 23, 2004, was sales of $17.4 million, compared to sales of $14.3 million last year, and net income of $1.5 million or $.26/share compared to a loss of $(10,000) or $(0.0)/diluted share last year.
If we take a look at the "5-Yr Restated" financials
on Morningstar.com, we can see that revenue has grown each and every year from 1999 from $52 million to $63 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings, however, have been more erratic with $.49/share reported in 2001, dropping to $.22 in 2003, and increasing to $.25 in the trailing twelve months. With the current quarter report of $.26/share, this is more that all of 2003...and extrapolated would get us over $1.00/share in 2004. However, extrapolation is a dangerous business!
Free cash flow, while also erratic, has been positive with $6 million in 2001, dropping to $1 million in 2003, and back to $4 million in the trailing twelve months per Morningstar.com.
Balance sheet-wise, this company is quite solvent with $1.8 million in cash and $23.7 million in other current assets, more than enough to cover BOTH the current liabilities of $7.1 million and the smallish long-term liabilities of $1.1 million.
This is a very small company! Looking at the "Key Statistics" from Yahoo.com
, we can see that the market cap is a microcap $69.45 million. The trailing p/e is at 49.06, no PEG is noted, I suspect no good estimates are out there...and am not sure if any analysts follow this stock. Price/sales is nice at 0.95, and price/book is also cheap at 1.28.
Yahoo reports only 5.73 million shares outstanding with 2.90 million of them that float. As of 2/9/04, there are only 6,000 shares out short representing only 0.21% of the float or 1 trading day of volume.
Interestingly, this company DOES pay a nice dividend of $.24/share yielding 2.32% which isn't shabby at all. The last stock split was a 6:5 split (don't see THAT too often do you?), on 6/13/88. (almost 16 years ago!).
If we look at a Point and Figure Graph from stockcharts.com
, we can see that this company broke out of a narrow range in mid 2001, and recently broke through resistance at about $9.5 in early 2003 and has headed upward since then. I do not think that this is too late to enter this equity with a position.
Quite frankly, except for the TINY size of this company, I like it a lot. The p/e isn't great, but the growth in revenue has been steady and the earnings have improved greatly recently. If this stock gets any attention, it has the potential to rocket a bit like the Escalon Medical Stock (that I SOLD today after buying it AFTER the sharp rise and getting caught in the pullback :(). Anyway, that's an idea for you. I will try to hold off buying any other stocks, (if I can...), until such time as I sell a portion again at a profit.
Thanks again for stopping by. I hope that my rambling is helpful for you to think about stocks and I just encourage all of you to do your own necessary checkup on all of the stocks I suggest and discuss them with your investment advisors. If you have any questions or comments, or of course any words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at email@example.com
"Trading Transparency" GI
Hello again! There I go breaking one of my rules. Sorry. But when I saw Giant Industries (GI) on the run again today, I decided to jump in. I WILL wait for a sail on a gain for my next purchase. And I WILL stay at 25 positions MAX....maybe I should write that on the board 100 TIMES!...anyway, picked up 300 of GI at $21.69 earlier this morning...a few minutes ago. At this very moment, GI is trading at $22.36, up $2.76 or 14.08% on the day....so it looks ok for the moment. Unfortunately, a lot (see the previous posts) of these stocks that spike retrace the move on the downside....and with an 8% loss limit...well you KNOW what happens!
Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
"Trading Transparency" ESMC
Hello Friends. 'Speaking of the Devil', I mean, I just got done posting that last one on BRLI and KNEW that ESMC was hovering above that 8% loss...well there it went. Just a minute ago I checked my list....and there it was, ESMC at a 9% loss. YIKES. Anyhow, I put in the order and sold my 300 shares at $16.071. I hate these next day sales. That is why I like to avoid those low cost stocks. hmmm. Anyway, I had purchased the 300 shares on 3/3/04 at $17.89. Easy come, easy go I guess.
Thanks for sharing in my annoyance.
"Trading Transparency" BRLI
Hello Friends. Well sometimes you DO have to buy them right. My recent purchase in the trading account, Bio Reference Labs (BRLI), hit our 8% loss limit today and was sold from the portfolio. I do this manually and check the prices at least daily. I sold 300 shares at $19.05. I had just purchased BRLI on 3/1/04 at a price of $21.24. But you know how those rules go. Escalon, my purchase from yesterday, is also hovering above the 8% limit...so that may go as well :(. We will be watching. Again, I shall not be replacing this stock with a new purchase until I have sold some other partial position at a gain.
Remember to always do your own due diligence, and check with your investment advisors to make sure all investment decisions are timely and appropriate for you! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to email me at email@example.com
Wednesday, 3 March 2004
"Trading Transparency" ESMC
Hello Friends! That nickel was burning a hole in my pcket again. So after selling some of my IGT for a gain, I felt that I could buy a little something...you know how that is. Anyway, I recently posted ESMC on the BLOG
and with that nickel in my pocket, and ESMC having a second day moving up nicely on great volume....well, I just broke down and bought 300 shares a few moments ago for my trading account. I paid $17.868/share. Hopefull, this doesn't IMMEDIATELY retrace its gain...and we have to sell...but WILL sell at any 8% loss.
Thanks so much for stopping by! Please be sure to do your own due diligence on this and all stocks mentioned on this website/blog and the Internet in general. I am not so trusting of everything I read either. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
Tuesday, 2 March 2004
March 2, 2004 Cantel Medical (CMN)
Hello Friends! It is LATE Tuesday night, maybe it will be Wednesday when this gets posted, but I haven't posted a pick for today and I think I have a nice one for you. As always, please remember to do your own due diligence and research, and consult with your investment advisors to make sure any selection on this site is suitable for a purchase or sale for you!
Cantel Medical Corp. (CMN), according to the money.cnn.com "snapshot"
"...is a healthcare company concentrating in infection prevention and control products and diagnostic equipment, as well as servicing medical equipment. CMN also markets medical equipment." CMN had a nice day today, closing at $18.40, up $1.35 or 7.92% in an otherwise dismal market.
Early this morning, Cantel reported second quarter 2004 earnings results
and like so many of the stocks that end up on this site, the results were enough to propel the stock higher. During the quarter ended January 31, 2004, sales jumped to $41.1 million from $34.4 million the prior year. Net income was $2.6 million or $.26/diluted share, vs $2.4 million or $.24/diluted share the prior year.
Looking at "5-Yr Restated" financials
from Morningstar.com, we can see first that revenue has grown steadily and rapidly from $38 million in 1999 to $138 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings/share have also steadily grown from $.20/share to $.85/share in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow has improved from $1 million in 2001 to $10 million in the trailing twelve months.
Balance Sheet-wise, Morningstar reports that CMN has $10.5 million in cash and $53.1 million in other current assets, enough to cover both the current liabilities of $21.6 million and the long-term liabilities of $33.7 million combined.
Looking at "Key Statistics" on Yahoo.com
, we can see that CMN is a small cap company with a market cap of $171.58 million. The trailing p/e is 21.50 and the forward p/e for fye 31-Jul-05 is 16.28. The PEG is very nice at 1.05, with an also reasonable price/sales of 1.15.
There are only 9.32 million shares outstanding, and of those, only 7.50 million of them float. There are only 77,000 shares out short as of 2/9/04, but with the low trading volume, this still represents 3.5 days of average trading volume, but only 1.03% of the float.
No cash dividend is paid, and no stock split is reported.
If we look at a point and figure chart on CMN
, we can see that the stock just recently appears to have broken though a resistance level at around $14.0, and has headed higher in a strong fashion (in my humble opinion.)
Overall, I like this stock quite a bit. Except for the low trading volume and the low market cap, the value is excellent with a p/e just over 20 and a PEG just over 1.0. The balance sheet is solid and the company is generating nice free cash flow! We will have to see how stocks trade as this might become another addition to my portfolio!
Thanks again for stopping by. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at email@example.com
"Trading Transparency" IGT
Hello Friends! Looking hard for a profit, I found that IGT was getting in the range of a sale of a portion of my 200 shares and I went ahead and sold 50 of IGT a few minutes ago at $42.71/share for about a 23% gain. I purchased my 200 shares of IGT (International Game Technology), at $34.60 on 11/5/03. Now have 150 remaining...and can buy a new position (!)....at least when the market looks a bit healthier! Regards to all.
If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
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