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Sunday, 21 March 2004
"Seven months ago" A longer term view examining the week of August 25, 2003

Hello Friends! Welcome to Part II of the "Weekend Retrospective". Short-term our performance here has been absolutely lousy. And so has the market's! Longer term, we still look pretty good. As always, please remember to always do your own investigation of all of the stocks mentioned on this website and use your investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website!

During the week of August 25, 2003, I listed eight stocks on this Blog: Electronic Clearing House (ECHO), Invivo Corporation (SAFE), Engineered Support Systems (EASI), Netflix (NFLX), SupportSoft (SPRT), Quiksilver (ZQK), Michaels Stores (MIK), and Wilson Greatbatch (GB).

ECHO was posted on Bob's Advice on August 25, 2003, at a price of $6.36. ECHO closed on 3/19/04 at $9.36 for a gain of $3.00 or 47.2%.

On February, 12, 2004, ECHO reported 1st quarter 2004 results for the quarter ended December 31, 2003. Revenue for the quarter increased 22.1% to $11.4 million from $9.3 million the prior year. Net income was $589,000 or $.09/diluted share in the quarter compared to $518,000 or $.08/share in the prior year. Overall, this appears to be a solid quarter for ECHO and the company is still on track.

Invivo (SAFE) was posted on Bob's Advice on 8/25/03 at a price of $20.39. SAFE last traded on 1/27/04 when it closed at $21.97. SAFE was acquired by Intermagnetics for $152 million or $22/share in cash. This was a gain of $1.61/share or 7.9% at the time of acquisition.

EASI was selected for Bob's Advice on 8/26/03 at $54.77. EASI split 3:2 on 11/3/03 for a net effective selection cost of $36.52. EASI closed 3/19/04 at $49.16 for a gain of $12.64 or 34.6%.

On February 26, 2004, EASI reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Revenues surged 60% to $195.1 million "helped by three acquisitions completed over the past nine months." Net income was $15.7 million or $.57/share compared with $8.6 million or $.34/share the prior year. This company is doing great!

On August 27, 2003, I posted NFLX on Bob's Advice at a price of $32.66. NFLX split 2:1 on 2/12/04 for a net selection price of $16.33. NFLX closed on 3/19/04 at $30.73 for a gain of $14.40 or 88.2%.

On January 21, 2004, NFLX reported 4th quarter 2003 results. Revenue jumped 80% year over year to $81.2 million. "GAAP" net income was $2.3 million or $.07/diluted share vs a net loss of $(3.3) million or $(.10)/share the prior year. The company appears to be on track.

On February 26, 2004, NFLX announced revenue/earnings estimates revisions for 2004 and beyond. They announced that revenues should hit $480-$505 million in 2004, up from its previous estimate of
$450-$475 million made the prior month. Revenue came in at $272.2 million in 2003. However, NFLX cut estimated net income down to an estimated $4 million to $10 million in 2004 from $14.6 million to $21.6 million estimated a month earlier. Net income was $6.5 million in 2003. This was a "mixed-bag" for reports and the stock has traded a bit sideways but still above support levels since that time.

On August 28, 2003, I posted SupportSoft (SPRT) on Bob's Advice at a price of $8.94. SPRT closed on 3/19/04 at $11.00 for a gain of $2.06 or 23%.

Looking for the latest quarterly report, I found that SPRT reported 4th quarter 2003 results on January 20, 2004. Revenue for the fourth quarter was $15.1 million, a 28% increase from $11.8 million for the same period the prior year. In addition this was a 12% increase from the $13.5 million the previous quarter. Net income was $3.4 million or $.08/diluted share compared to $.9 million or $.03/diluted share the prior year and ALSO a sequential increase from the $2.6 million or $.07/share the prior quarter. This company is doing GREAT!

Hang in there sports fans...just three more to review!

On August 28, 2003, I posted Quiksilver (ZQK) on Bob's Advice at a price of $18.42. Quiksilver closed at $20.84 on 3/19/04 for a gain of $2.42 or 13.1%.

Looking through the news, we can see that ZQK reported 1st quarter 2004 results on March 10, 2004. Consolidated revenues increased 33% to $256.1 million compared to first quarter 2003 results. Consolidated net income for the quarter jumped 40% to $9.2 million compared to $6.6 million in the first quarter of 2003. Fully diluted earnings per share were $.16 vs $.12/fully diluted share in 2003. Also bullish for the stock, in the same report Quiksilver increased its guidance to new ranges of $1.10 billion to $1.12 billion for revenue in 2004, and $1.22 to $1.25 for earnings per share. Things look 'just fine' for this company!

O.K....two more to go!

Michaels Stores (MIK) was posted on the blog on 8/28/03 at $43.01. MIK closed at $47.71 on 3/19/04 for a gain of $4.70 or 10.9%.

On March 3, 2004, MIK reported fourth quarter 2003 results. Total sales for the quarter ended January 31, 2004, increased 9% to $1.063 billion. Same store sales for the fourth quarter increased 4%. Net income for the quarter increased 25% to $94.6 million from
$75.4 million last year. Diluted earnings per share jumped 26% to $1.35/share in 2003 vs $1.07/share in 2002. These are great results!

On March 16, 2004, MIK announced that their quarterly cash dividend was increasing from $.10/share to $.12/share effective on the dividend payable on April 30, 2004. This is also bullish for the stock.

In addition, the latest "same-store sales" report for February was excellent with total sales up 18% and same-store sales up a very strong 12%. Everything seems to be "in line" for MIK.

Hang in there...just one more to review!

And last, but not least, I posted Wilson Greatbatch (GB) on 8/29/03 at $39.24/share. GB closed at $36.13/share on 3/19/04, for a loss of $(3.11) or (7.9)% during this period.

On February 10, 2004, GB announced 4th quarter 2003 results. Net sales for the quarter were $49.4 million, a 4.3% increase over sales in the same quarter in 2002. Diluted net income was $4.5 million, or $.21/diluted share vs $5.0 million or $.23/diluted share the prior year. Overall, this is a bit anemic of an earnings report. Recently, GB announced an acquisition of NanoGram Devices Corporation...which should be a nice fit in their medical device business...but overall, I would find it difficult to be too enthusiastic over the results reported by GB and would not be adding to any positions based on these results. This does not mean that the stock price will not rise from this point...just that the earnings results are not as exciting as some of our other stocks we have watched.

So during this week seven months ago, we selected eight stocks of which one was acquired. However, even taking this into consideration, I had an average gain on the selections of 27.1% over the approximately seven month period. This is a great performance during this time period and much better than our more recent seven week showing which was at a loss...during a more difficult market period.

Thanks so much for bearing with me and reading the post! As you know, past performance is NO guarantee of future results...but it is nice to know that sometimes we DO get it right!

Regards to all!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:51 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
"How are we doing?" A look back on the week of January 5, 2004

Hello Friends! I have not found much exciting to post the last couple of days and have thus not posted anything! (Is that circular reasoning or what?) It IS the weekend, and it is time to do a little retrospective work and see if the picks we have posted have done well since our listing. As always, remember to do your own due diligence and homework before investing in any of these stocks and consult with your investment advisor to make sure they are suitable investments for you!

During the week of January 5, 2004, I posted six stocks: Applied Films (AFCO), Dollar Tree (DLTR), UniFirst (UNF), Kenneth Cole Productions (KCP), Resources Connection (RCN), and American Medical Systems (AMMD). Of these stocks, I purchased and still own shares of AMMD in my trading account.

Applied Films was selected on Bob's Advice on January 5, 2004, at a price of $37.46. AFCO closed 3/19/04 at a price of $31.91, for a loss of $(5.55) or (14.8)%.

Dollar Tree (DLTR) was selected for the BLOG on 1/6/04 at a price of $31.85. DLTR closed at $29.06 on 3/19/04, for a loss of $(2.79) or (8.8)%.

UniFirst was posted on this blog on 1/7/04 (one of two posts for UNF actually!), at $27.11. UNF closed on 3/19/04 at $24.87 for a loss of $(2.24) or (9.0)%.

Kenneth Cole Productions (KCP) was picked for this website on 1/7/04 at a price of $31.95. KCP closed on 3/19/04 at $32.36 for a gain of $.41 or 1.3%.

On January 8, 2004, Resources Connection (RECN) was selected for the blog at $34.50. RECN closed at 3/19/04 at $33.96 for a loss of $(.54) or (1.6)%.

Finally, American Medical Systems (AMMD) was picked for Bob's Advice at $25.96 on 1/9/04. AMMD closed on 3/19/04 at $26.17, for a gain of $.21 or .8%.

Overall, it was a very difficult two months for our selections, with an average loss of (5.35)%.

Thanks so much for stopping by. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to leave them right on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Regards!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 5:25 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Wednesday, 17 March 2004
March 17, 2004 Autobytel (ABTL)

Hello Friends! We certainly are having a nice day in the market. And it even seems like it may hold into the last hour for a change. The Dow as I am writing, is at 10,301.85, up 117.18 on the day, and the NASDAQ is at 1973.81, up 30.72 points.

Scanning through the lists again, I came across Autobytel (ABTL). I do not own any shares but it seems like an interesting selection.

According to the money.cnn.com "snapshot", ABTL's principal activity is to "...provide automotive marketing services over the Internet. It provides the services through four web-sites it owns and operates: Autobytel.com, Autoweb.com, CarSmart.com and AutoSite.com. The sites help automobile dealers to sell cars using marketing and customer relationship management tools and programs."
Currently, as I write, ABTL is trading at $12.93, up $.96 or 8.02% on the day.

On January 29, 2004, ABTL reported fourth quarter 2003 results. Revenue for the quarter ended December 31, 2003, totaled $23.9 million, a 4% sequential increase and a 20% increase over the prior year revenues of $20.0 million in 2002. Net income for the fourth quarter was $3.8 million or $.09/share, compared to net income of $0.5 million or $.01/share in 2002.

Looking at "5-Yr Restated" financials on Morningstar.com, we see that revenue has been steadily increasing from $23.8 million in 1998 to $85.0 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings have increased from a loss of $(1.45)/share in 2000 to a profit of $.11/share in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow has also improved with $(26) million reported in 2000, $(22) million in 2001, $(4) million in 2002 and $7 million in the trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet presented on Morningstar looks great with $58.9 million in cash as well as $9.7 million in other current assets, balanced against $13.4 million in current liabilities and only $200,000 in long-term liabilities.

Looking at "Key Statistics" on Yahoo.com, we can see that the Market Cap is a small $488.16 million. The trailing p/e is steep at 67.96, but the growth is so RAPID that the forward p/e (fye 31-DEC-04) is only 27.09, giving a PEG (5 yr anticipated) of only 0.91. Price/sales still rich at 5.06.

Yahoo reports 37.61 million shares outstanding with 35.30 million of them that float. As of 2/9/04, there were 1.70 million shares out short representing 4.82% of the float or 2.084 trading days. This is up from the prior month's level of 1.18 million shares out short. No cash dividend is paid and no stock dividends are reported on Yahoo.

Looking at a point and figure chart, we can see that this stock was heading lower when it first broke through resistance in January, 2002, when it passed through the $3 level. Again, in early 2003 it broke through a similar resistance level at about $3.25 and has headed higher steadily since then.

Overall, I like this stock. It is growing nicely and we are catching it as it first turns positive in terms of earnings. The expected earnings growth is quite high as noted by the PEG under 1.0. The company is now spinning off positive cash flow and has a wonderful balance sheet.

Remember to please do your own due diligence and investigate this and all other stock picks on this BLOG prior to committing any of your own money. Use Investment Professionals as well! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:40 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
March 17, 2004 VCA Antech, Inc. (WOOF)

Happy St. Patrick's Day everyone! Probably should give you something green today....:). Anyhow, the market is up a bit today, seems like the recent sell-off is now giving way to an attempt to provide some support to the market...kind of a see-saw between the bulls and the bears you could say.

I came across this one this morning. I love the symbol WOOF! I mean this guy MUST have had some kind of a sense of humor don't you think? Anyhow, VCA Antech (WOOF) is currently, as I write, trading at $34.69, up $2.53 or 7.87% on the day. And guess what...according to the profile on USAToday.com, WOOF's "...principal activity is to operate veterinary diagnostic laboratoris and free-standing, full-service animal hospitals in the United States." Now who would have guessed?

If we look at their fourth quarter 2003 results, we see that revenue increased 14.0% for the quarter ended December 31, 2003, to $132.4 million. The fully diluted earnings per share for the quarter was $.23/share vs a loss of $(0.06)/share in the 2002 comparable quarter.

Longer-term, looking at "5-Yr Restated" financials on Morningstar.com, we can see that revenues have grown steadily from $281 million in 1998 to $488 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings/share on Morningstar start in 2002 (? when they went public?), at $.56/share, increasing to $.77/share in the trailing twelve months.

How about free cash flow? Morningstar shows this improving steadily from $36 million in 2000, $43 million in 2001, $49 million in 2002 and $58 million in the trailing twelve months. This is a very nice picture!

Assets and liabilities are not quite as pretty but appear adequate, imho. They have $18.4 million in cash and $44.9 million in other current assets. This is plenty to cover the $52.1 million in current liabilities but does not touch the sizeable $342.3 million in long-term liabilities. With the growing free cash flow, I would anticipate this long-term liabilities picture to be improving....time will tell!

What about valuation? Checking "Key Statistics" on Yahoo.com, we can see that this is a nice sized company with a market cap of $1.43 Billion. The trailing p/e is moderate at 33.06, but the forward p/e drops considerably (for fye 31-Dec-04) to 21.65 and the PEG is reasonable at 1.17. Price/sales a little higher at 2.55.

There are 40.67 million shares outstanding with 30.20 million of them that float. Only 575,000 shares are out short as of 2/9/04, representing 2.638 trading days but only 1.90% of the float. No dividend is paid and no stock dividends are reported.

This stock has been trading very nicely. If we look at a Point and Figure chart on WOOF, we can see that the stock broke through resistance levels of about $14.50 in December, 2002 and has been trading higher since then.

Overall, I like this stock a lot. I mean it has such a CUTE symbol too....like WOOF! (I wonder if MEOW has been considered?)....there already is CAT :). OK seriously, the stock looks nice, the valuation is reasonable, the free cash flow is improving, the price is appreciating, the PEG isn't bad....but I will SIT ON MY HANDS....I promise. Waiting for a bit more confirmation in the market before adding a position.

Please be sure to do your own investigation of this and all stocks on this website before making any investment decisions. Be sure to use your financial advisors as well! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them here or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Regards!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:06 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Tuesday, 16 March 2004
"Trading Transparency" SMTS
Hello Friends!

O.K. I did this in public. I broke the rules that I had set up and bought a stock because that nickel was BURNING a hole in my pocket and guess what? Stock drops IMMEDIATELY on GOOD NEWS!!! What is a fellow going to do. I better get back to the black board and write 100 times: I will follow my rules, I will follow my rules........

And to do it in the public eye as well. Just goes to show how vulnerable I am as an average trader. So what am I talking about? This morning I bought a WONDERFUL COMPANY Somanetics (SMTS), 600 shares at $12.95. Right at the PEAK on the open. The stock announced great earnings, and, like it so often does, SOLD OFF on the good news. This afternoon checking the stock price, I realized it was trading at $11.20/share, down $(1.75) or (13.5)%. Now I could BREAK the rules again, but deciding to get back on the wagon, sold the stock this afternoon, managing to LOSE 11% on my investment in about 6 hours.

I guess that is why I have rules. Now, if I can ever get myself to STICK TO THEM!!! Hope you are doing better with self-control!

I will TRY to sit on my hands and WAIT, no matter how nice a stock I see, until I sell one of my holdings or a portion of it AT A GAIN. That way, knowing that the current correction would be over. NASDAQ as I write, has faded back into the RED....is down a few points....so this rally this morning is less than impressive. There may be some more room on the downside!

Thanks so much for stopping by. I hope I haven't discouraged you from reading the REST of the picks...but it does go to show, that I am pretty darn normal like all the rest of you :)....at least I hope so!

Regards!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:49 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
"Trading Transparency" SMTS

Hello Friends!

With the market looking a bit oversold, I went ahead and pushed my rules a bit and put in an order to buy 600 Somanetics (SMTS) at the market this morning. Somanetics came out with good earnings results this morning and with the 50% decrease in stroke rate reported associated with the use of their Cerebral oxygen monitoring during open heart surgery, this appears to be a company with all the ducks in a row as they say.

Please do your own due diligence and consult with your investment advisor before making any decisions based on information published here. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Regards!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 8:01 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Monday, 15 March 2004
March 15, 2004 Toro (TTC)
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by. As always, remember to PLEASE do your own due diligence, that is do your own homework and investigation on all of the stocks that are discussed here and actually anywhere on the web...before taking any action. Also, consider talking to your financial advisors as stocks I discuss may not be appropriate or timely for you!

Anyhow, it is a LOUSY day in the market. Come to think of it, it has been a LOUSY month as well. Currently, as I write, the Dow is DOWN 111.85 points at 10,128.23, and the NASDAQ is down 37.21 points at 1,947.52. The skittishness over terrorism in Spain is not helping this market at all!

One stock that is bucking this trend is Toro (TTC). As I write, Toro is trading at $58.96, up $2.65 on the day or 4.71%. According to the money.cnn.com "snapshot", TTC "...principal activities are to design, develop, manufacture and sell professional turf maintenance equipment, turf and agricultural irrigation systems, landscaping equipment, and residential yard products." Around here in Wisconsin, Toro has both plants and is known for their lawnmowers and snowblowers.

On February 24, 2004, Toro reported 1st quarter 2004 results. At the same time, almost more importantly, they raised fiscal 2004 guidance. For the quarter ended January 30, 2004, Toro reported revenue of $314 million compared to $296 million the prior year. Earnings were up 33% to $.36/share compared to $.27/share the prior year.

Looking at "5-Yr Restated" financials from Morningstar.com, we can see that revenue has grown steadily from $1.1 billion in 1998 to $1.5 billion in the trailing twelve months. Earnings have been a bit erratic, increasing from $.16/share in 1998 to $1.93 in 2001, dipping to $1.37 in 2002 and back up to $3.12 in trailing twelve months.

Per Morningstar.com, the free cash flow has been solidly positive with $66 million in 2000, $35 million in 2001, $98 million in 2002, and $36 million in trailing twelve months.

Looking at assets/liabilities, we see that even though the cash level is relatively low at $15.7 million, Toro has $665.0 million in other current assets as compared to $313 million in current liabilities and only $188.9 million in long-term liabilities. There is enough in current assets and cash to easily pay off all of the liabilities.

When checking "Key Statistics" on Yahoo.com, we find that the market cap is large at $1.43 billion, the trailing p/e is nice at 18.36 (imho), and the forward p/e is even bennter at 14.38 (for fye 31-Oct-05). This results in a very nice PEG of 1.10. The price/sales is also reasonably cheap at 0.90.

There are 24.28 million shares outstanding and 23.10 million of them float. Currently there are only 394,000 shares out short (as of 2/9/04), representing 2.962 trading days or 1.71% of the float. Interestingly, the company also DOES pay a small dividend of $.24/share yielding 0.43%. The last stock split was a 2:1 split in April, 2003.

Looking at technicals, using a chart from Stockcharts.com, we see that TTC broke out of a resistance level early in January, 2001, at about $16.5/share and has powered ahead very strongly ever since then. If anything, it appears a little ahead of itself, but then again, looking at valuation, suggests that this stock may have a lot more to go on the upside.

The company is also doing what it can to support the stock price. As announced on March 12, 2004, Toro is planning to buy back 2.5 million of its shares (more than 10% of its float!), at a "Dutch auction tender" at a premium of .3% to 6.6% over Friday's closing price. This is driving the stock upwards today in the face of an overall broad-based correction in equities.

In summary, there is little that I do NOT like about this stock! I just am not currently in the market for shares, as you understand my strategy of waiting until I have a gain before buying....but the valuation is right, the company is raising estimates, the balance sheet is clean...so it looks intriguing to me! I do NOT currently own any shares or option positions on this stock!

Thanks so much for stopping by. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Regards!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:11 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
"Trading Transparency" GI, and MYL
Hello Friends! Today the market is talking to me. In fact it is SCREAMING at me. No, I am NOT hearing voices, but the price action is telling me to get out of stocks. At least two that are now hitting and passing 8% stops. GI blew past the 8% loss level, and in fact I just pulled the plug with about a 15% loss, MYL was sold with just over an 8% loss. Now down two positions from the previous 22 I believe....should be at about 20...with 25 our goal. I will try to SIT ON MY HANDS and not buy anything until I can sell a portion of a position at a gain. This is my gyroscope...tells me to back off of margin and reduce exposure to equities. Let's see if it works!

In summary, I just sold 300 shares of GI, my entire position, at $18.37. I JUST purchased these shares on 3/4/04 at a price of $21.72.

Second, I just sold my 200 shares of MYL at $22.66. These shares were purchased on 11/25/03, at a cost basis of $24.83.

There, got that taken care of. Now batten down the hatches and let's see if we can ride this out!

Thanks so much for stopping by! As always, please do your own due diligence on all stock market ideas listed here, consult with your investment advisors as well to make sure that actions on equities are suitable and appropriate for you!

If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:08 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Sunday, 14 March 2004
"Seven Months Ago" A longer term view examining the week of August 18, 2003
Hello Friends! Just trying to finish up a little website "housework" here before crashing for the evening. From the last post, we can see how even with a selective stock-picking system it is quite hard to fight the market...and indeed virtually impossible...as the market correction pulled back our stocks as well. Last weekend, I looked at the week of August 11th, 2003. This weekend, let's review the week of August 18, 2003.

During that week, six selections were made on this website: Measurement Specialties (MSS), PolyMedica (PLMD), Dynacq International (DYIIE), Lifeway Foods (LWAY), Electronics Boutique (ELBO) and DJ Orthopedics (DJO). I do not own shares of any of these stocks.

Measurement Specialties (MSS) was selected on Bob's Advice on 8/18/03 at a price of $12.31. MSS closed on 3/12/04 at $18.65 for a gain of $6.34 or 51.5%.

On February 4, 2004, MSS reported third quarter results for the three months ended December 31, 2003. Sales increased 12.4% to $31.9 million compared to $28.4 million in the prior year. Net income, however, without taking into consideration non-recurring events etc., was down at $.06/share vs $.13/share the prior year. It appears that the company is doing 'o.k.' but not blowing away the numbers (imho). With the outstanding performance, I would certainly hold on to the stock to await next quarters results...but would defer adding to or starting a new position at this time.

PLMD was posted on Bob's Advice on 8/18/03 at a price of $46.05. PLMD closed on 3/12/04 at $26.46. PLMD split 2:1 on 9/30/03, thus our effective pick price was $23.025. Thus, the stock has had a gain of $3.435 or 14.9%.

On February 5, 2004, PolyMedica reported 3rd quarter 2004 results. Net revenues for the quarter ended December 31, 2003 were $106.5 million, compared to $89.9 million the prior year. Net income, however, was $2.2 million or $.08/share compared to $10.4 million, or $.41/share the prior year. The decrease was attributed to one-time write downs of "non-cash impairment charge" related to a write-down of certain assets...and for establishing additional reserves for estimated overpayments by Medicare. With the stock price doing well, I would hesitate to sell, but would avoid buying, and certainly, on any additional bad news, would find me a seller of these shares.

Dynacq International (DYIIE) was the greatest disappointment for this week's picks. I picked Dynacq on 8/19/03 when it was at $24.50. DYIIE closed on 3/12/04 at $5.65/share for a loss of $(18.85) or (76.9)%. Dynacq has had reporting problems, resignation of independent auditor, resignation of chief executive and subsequently delays in reporting financial results with multiple lawsuits filed against the company. This stock, if purchased by me, would have been a good test of the old 8% rule...keeping losses to a minimum. In the meantime, I could not recommend purchase of these shares.

Lifeway Foods was posted on Bob's Advice on 8/21/03 at $14.51. LWAY split 2:1 on 3/9/04, just a few days ago, so our adjusted recommendation was at $7.255. LWAY closed today at $17.60 for a gain of $10.345 or 142.6%.

Electronics Boutique (ELBO) was picked for Bob's Advice on 8/22/03 at $32.30. ELBO closed on 3/12/04 at $27.25 for a loss $(5.05) or (15.6)%.

On March 11, 2004, ELBO reported fourth quarter fiscal 2004 ended January 31, 2004. Income was up nicely at $671.5 million vs $533.5 million last year. Earnings per share for the quarter were $1.57 up from $1.21 last year. Same store sales were up 2% in the quarter...a rather tepid growth imho. In addition, ELBO announced growth for the first quarter under analysts expectations. With the tepid same store sales growth and lowered expectations, I would have a hard time recommending this stock for the BLOG.

Finally, on August 22, 2003, I posted DJ Orthopedics on the blog when it was selling at $10.89. DJO closed on 3/12/04 at $20.53 for a gain of $9.64 or 88.5%.

On January 28, 2004, DJO announced fourth quarter 2003 results. Net revenues totalled $54.6 million, an increase of 17.0% over last year's $46.7 million. Net income for the quarter was $4.1 million or $.21/share vs a loss of $(6.0) million or $(0.33)/share the prior year. This company appears to be doing just fine!

Overall, for the six stocks, I had an average gain of 34.2% over the 7 months of observation. Not too bad, and much better than the "seven weeks" review posted earlier today!

Thanks so much for stopping by! Remember to PLEASE do your own reviews and analysis on all of these stocks and consult with your financial advisor for advice on whether the investments are appropriate or not. If you have any questions, comments, or any other queries, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Regards!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:26 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
"How are we doing?" A look back on the week of January 5, 2004

Hello Friends! I got a bit of a late start this weekend...so let's get right down to business. One of the things I like to do is to review the stock picks in a methodical fashion on weekends. Currently, I am looking back about two months, and about seven months. As the BLOG gets older, I will probably drop the two month review and stay with about a 7 month and a 1 year review. If you have additional ideas, please email me and let me know. Also would appreciate knowing if this review process is helpful. I think I owe it to any reader who comes by, to review past picks to find out how this whole process is working! And I am certainly NOT always making profitable picks!

During the week of January 5th, 2004, I made six stock selections: Applied Films (AFCO), Dollar Tree (DLTR), UniFirst (UNF), Kenneth Cole Productions (KCP), Resources Connection (RECN), and American Medical Systems (AMMD).

On January 5, 2004, I posted Applied Films (AFCO) at $37.46/share. AFCO closed 3/12/04 at $31.00/share for a loss of $(6.46) or (17.2)%.

Dollar Tree (DLTR) was picked on Bob's Advice on 1/6/04 at $31.85. DLTR closed on 3/12/04 at $29.63 for a loss of $(2.22) or (7.0)%. Clearly this latest correction in the NASDAQ took a toll on our stocks as well!

UniFirst (UNF) was posted on the blog on 1/7/04 at a price of $27.11. UNF closed on 3/12/04 at $25.41 for a loss of $(1.70) or (6.3)%.

Kennect Cole Productions (KCP) was posted on Bob's Advice on 1/7/04 at a price of $31.95/share. KCP closed 3/12/04 at $32.41 for a gain of $.46 or 1.4%.

Resources Connection (RECN) was selected for the blog on 1/8/04 at a price of $34.50. RECN closed 3/12/04 at a price of $34.00 for a loss of $(.50) or (1.4)%.

Finally, American Medical Systems (AMMD)was picked on Bob's Advice on 1/9/04 at $25.96. AMMD closed 3/12/04 at $28.15 for a gain of $2.19 or 8.4%.

Overall, my six stock picks during this eight week session had an average loss of (3.7)%. This was a tough period for the NASDAQ which has given up all of its gains for 2004, and my picks did not escape the downdraft!

Thanks so much for stopping by! As always, please be sure to do your own due diligence on these and all stock picks on the blog. Be sure to consult with your financial advisor to make sure that the stock discussed is appropriate for you as all investments involve risk of losses as well as gains!

If you have any questions, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com and I will try to get back to you ASAP!

Regards!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 5:53 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink

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