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Saturday, 3 April 2004
"Seven Months Ago" A longer term view examining the week of September 8, 2003

Hello Friends! It is Saturday, and a good time to catch up on a little homework on this blog. The weekend gives me a chance to review past selections and this one is the longer-term view from seven months later. Hopefully, this can give both you and me some perspective on the success and usefulness of my selection technique.

The week of September 8, 2003, found me picking four stocks for Bob's Advice. I selected Hi-Tech Pharmacal at $28.75 on 9/8/03, selected Merit Medical Systems (MMSI) on the blog at $23.10 on 9/8/03, selected Scientific Games (SGMS) on 9/12/03 at $11.55, and finally selected Hanger Orthopedic (HGR) on Bob's Advice at $14.75 on 9/12/03.

HITK closed on 4/2/04 at $21.78 for a loss of $(6.97) or (24.2)%. On March 11, 2004, HITK reported 3rd quarter 2004 results for the quarter ended January 31, 2004. Net sales increased 13% to $18.0 million from $15.9 million. Net income increased 12% to $2.1 million from $1.9 million. Earnings per share remained unchanged at $.24/share due to a private placement of 860,000 shares in July, 2003. Overall the company is doing fine however, the issuance of shares dampening the earnings growth is of some concern to me.

Merit Medical split 4:3 on 12/3/03 after my post, so our net effective stock cost is actually $17.33/share. MMSI closed 4/2/04 at $22.04 for a gain of $4.71 or 27.2%.

On February 19, 2004, MMSI reported 4th quarter 2003 results. Revenues for the quarter ended December 31, 2003, were a record $35.1 million, up 19.4% compared to $29.4 million for the fourth quarter of 2002. Net income was up 49% to $.17/share from $.12/share or $4.7 million vs $3.2 million the prior year. This company appears to be doing just fine!

The third choice that week was Scientific Games at $11.55. SGMS closed on 4/2/04 at $20.28 for a gain of $8.73 or 75.6%.

On February 26, 2004, SGMS reported 4th quarter 2003 results. Revenues were $176.8 million up from $118.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2002. However, income was $.12/diluted share vs. $.17/diluted share last year. There were a lot of financial accounting maneuvers on the balance sheet, so I would withhold judgment on this decrease in earnings except to put up a cautionary light and await the next quarter results.

Finally, on 9/12/03, Hanger Orthopedics (HGR) was selected at a price of $14.75/share. HGR closed on 4/2/04 at $18.10 for a gain of $3.35 or 22.7%.

On February 25, 2004, HGR announced 4th quarter results. Revenue increased 5.8% to $142.8 million from $135.0 million the prior year. However, adjusted diluted earnings per share came in at $.13/share vs $.24/share the prior year. In my humble opinion, this quarter's results are somewhat less than exciting for HGR and I would put up a cautionary light on this one too...even though we have had a great performance on our "pick".

Overall, selections for this week fared better than selections as reviewed last week. The average performance of our four stock selections was a gain of 25.3%.

Thanks so much for stopping by! Remember to do your own due diligence on all stocks discussed on this blog and check with your financial advisors on the suitability and timeliness of these ideas. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:02 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
"How are we doing?" A look back on the week of January 19, 2004
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by. As many of you may know, I like to use the weekend as an opportunity to look pack at stock selections on this blog both short-term and long-term. Short-term, I am up to the week of January 19, 2004. Unfortunately, I did not pick ANY stocks on the blog that week....so this post is just about finished! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Regards!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 12:10 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Friday, 2 April 2004
April 2, 2004 Schnitzer Steel Industries (SCHN)
Hello Friends! Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) IS a stock that I own, please see the previous post, as I purchased stock for my Trading Account this morning. As always, PLEASE do your own investigation of all of the stocks discussed on this blog and PLEASE check with your investment advisors to make sure that the stock is timely and appropriate for you!

Schnitzer is currently trading at $37.62, up $5.50 on the day or 17.12%. According to the Yahoo "Profile" on Schnitzer, SCHN "...operates in three industry segments: Metal processing and recycling (Metals Recycling Business), mini-mill steel manufacturing (Steel Manufacturing Business) and self-service used auto parts (Auto Parts Business).

What moved the stock today, was the second quarter 2004 earnings report released yesterday after the market close. Revenue for the quarter ended February 29, 2004, jumped to $161.6 million from $124.7 million the prior year. Diluted earnings per share more than doubled to $.89/share from $.44/share last year.

If we look at "5-Yr Restated" financials on Morningstar.com, we can see that revenue has grown from $265 million in 1999 to $534.6 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings have increased from $.02/share to $1.76/share in the trailing twelve months between 1999 and now.

Morningstar reports that free cash flow, an important measure of the bottom line in my opinion, has improved from $(1) million in 2001, to $27 million in 2002, $19 million in 2003 and $33 million in the trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet looks fine, with $5.0 million in cash and $101.6 million in other current assets as opposed to $36.8 million in current liabilities and $135.7 million in long-term liabilities.

If we take a look at "Key Statistics" on Yahoo.com, we see that the market cap is a mid-cap $1.13 Billion. The trailing p/e is very reasonable at 18.12, with a forward p/e of 14.44 (fye 31-Aug-05). I expect this forward p/e to be dropping in light of the fabulous just announced quarter. The PEG is a little high at 1.99, but again, with a re-evaluation of the growth rate, if this is done, we may see this dropping. Price/sales is 1.80.

Yahoo reports 29.99 million shares outstanding with 24.30 million of them that float. Currently (3/8/04), there are 2.16 million shares out short representing 8.87% of the float or 2.013 trading days. This was up from 2.06 million shares out short the prior month. The current rise in the stock price may very well be a bit of a "squeeze" on the shorts.

SCHN does pay a small dividend of $.10/share yielding 0.21%. The last stock split was a 2:1 split in August, 2003.

If we take a look at the "Point and Figure" Chart on Stockcharts.com, we can see that SCHN broke through a resistance level of $4.75/share in October 2003, and has headed higher since. The chart looks quite strong imho.

Overall, I like this stock a lot. In fact I like it enough that I BOUGHT it. My kids would say if you love it so much why don't you MARRY IT....lol. What I didn't touch on is the Macroeconomic picture that bodes well for SCHN. The best I can tell, this company is a bit of a glorified scrap metal firm, and as I understand it, with the explosive growth of the Chinese economy, there is unprecedented demand for raw materials, especially steel. SCHN is in the right place at the right time. Their earnings are nice, they are generating increasing free cash flow, they even pay a dividend, so what is there NOT to like?

Thanks so much for stopping by! I hope that you enjoy my continuous reviews...if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here on the BLOG, or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com I will probably use your email as a reason to make an entry and share this discussion with our growing readership!

Regards again!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:43 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Saturday, 3 April 2004 12:13 PM CST
"Trading Transparency" CYTC, SCHN
Hello Friends! Nearly at my 60% gain point, I sold 100 shares of CYTC and purchased 300 shares of Schnitzer Steel (SCHN). I will review SCHN shortly. I had purchased my shares of CYTC at $14.86/share on 1/29/04, sold my first 100 shares on 3/1/04 at $18.62, and now have sold my second 100 shares at $22.69 this morning. I now have 300 shares of CYTC in my Tradin Portfolio remaining.

Having sold a portion of a stock at a gain, finally (!), I was able to pick up 300 shares of SCHN that was up strongly this morning on an excellent earnings report. As I indicated, I will report further on SCHN later today when I get a chance. My purchase price for the SCHN was $37.418.

Thanks so much for stopping by! Please remember to always do your OWN due diligence on all of the stocks discussed on this website and PLEASE consult with your investment advisors to make sure that stocks discussed are timely and appropriate investments for you before taking any action!

Regards again.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:45 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Wednesday, 31 March 2004
March 31, 2004 Harvard Bioscience Inc. (HBIO)

Hello Friends! I am sure glad you decided to stop by and see what I had to write today. Sometimes my friends ask me WHY I spend all this time writing...quite frankly, it just seems like the natural thing to be doing. I once heard a writer explain why he wrote by responding that he HAD to write. Anyway, as I like to remind all of you, I AM an amateur investor and want you all to be sure to do all of your own homework before making any investment decisions. Please also consult with your investment advisors to make sure investments discussed are suitable for you!

I came across Harvard Bioscience Inc. (HBIO) today on the lists of top % gainers. As you know if you have been reading this blog before, that is my first step in finding new ideas, scanning those top percentage gainers! HBIO, as I write, is trading at $9.14/share up $.61 or 7.14% on the day. I do not own any shares or other positions related to HBIO. In general, I like to avoid stocks under $10 due to the increased volatility, but many of these still qualify for inclusion on this BLOG.

As the money.cnn.com "Snapshot" reports, Harvard Bioscience works "...to develop, manufacture and market innovative, research enabling tools used in drug discovery at pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, universities and government laboratories."

My next step in the process is to check the latest quarter results for the potential investment. For HBIO, on March 2, 2004, they reported fourth quarter 2003 results. For the quarter ended December 31, 2003, revenues were $24.2 million an increas of 28% over the prior year's revenue of $18.9 million. Net "GAAP" income for the quarter was $1.8 million or $.06/diluted share compared to a loss of $(974,000), or $(.03)/share in the prior year. These are very nice results on first glance.

But what about longer-term? Can this company demonstrate a track record of performance that could possibly continue into the future or was the latest quarter just a fluke? For that, I like to check on Morningstar.com, especially the "5-Yr Restated" financials. For HBIO this financial report shows a very nice steady revenue growth all the way back to 1998 when they had $12.2 million in revenue, increasing each year with the trailing twelve months coming in at $81.8 million in revenue.

Earnings/share are first reported in 2001 (this usually indicates they year the company came public), and shows a loss of $(.20)/share that year, with $.03/share reported in 2002, and $.05/share in the trailing twelve months.

Free cash flow is a bit week in this report with $2 million reported in 2000, $2 million in 2001, $(1) million in 2002, and $(1) million in the trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet looks very nice with $7.6 million in cash reported, $41.9 million in other current assets, compared to $23.2 million in current liabilities and $2.4 million in long-term liabilities.

Having cleared these hurdles, I next like to check on the valuation question. Is the price reasonable? For this, I use Yahoo, and for HBIO this report on "Key Statistics" shows a market cap of only $277.51 million. The trailing p/e is steep at 66.19, but due to the FAST growth in earnings, the forward p/e (fye 31-Dec-05) is only 22.44, thus the PEG is a reasonable 1.10. Price/sales a bit stteper at 2.95.

HBIO has 30.16 million shares outstanding with only 20.90 million of them that float. There are only 156,000 shares out short as of 3/8/04, representing only 0.75% of the float or 0.647 trading days. No cash dividend and no stock dividend are reported on Yahoo.

Finally, I have been trying to look a little at graphs to get a feel for the technical analysis, for HBIO, this "Point and Figure" chart for HBIO shows a fairly steady DECLINE in stock price between September 2001 and June, 2003, when HBIO broke out of a resistance level of approximately $4.25 and has headed higher since. The stock does not appear to be excessively over-extended.

What do I think? The stock is a bit small making the price quite volatile especially if you stay with the 8% loss rule. However, the valuation is right, the recent earnings look excellent, and the 5 year track record for HBIO is also quite good.

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:56 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
March 31, 2004 Best Buy (BBY)
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by. Remember to always do your own investigation of all of the stock information you may pick up whether on this website, other internet resources, or just your friends! And always use your investment advisors who may be able to tell you whether the stock discussed is appropriate for you or not!

I came across Best Buy (BBY) this morning as I was scanning the list of greatest percentage movers. BBY is trading, as I write, at $51.65, up $3.25 or 6.71%. I do not own any shares of this stock nor have any leveraged or option positions. What pushed the stock up today was the fourth quarter earnings results reported today. For the fourth quarter ended March 1, 2004, "profit" jumped to $469 million or $1.42/share from $378 million or $1.16/share the prior year. What is most important about this was the fact that this EXCEEDED estimates as analysts were expecting $1.39/share for the quarter. In another report on the earnings reported that revenue for the quarter was $8.45 billion up from the prior year's $6.99 billion. Same store sales, what I think is one of the MOST important markers for retail success, was up a strong 9.7% in the quarter and gross margins widened to 25.4% from 25.1%. These are very nice results.

Looking a bit longer-term with a "5-Yr Restated" financials view from Morningstar.com, we can see the steady growth in revenue from $10.1 billion in 1999 to $23.1 billion in the trailing twelve months. Earnings have also grown steadily from $.69/share in 1999 to $2.17 in the trailing twelve months.

Free cash flow has varied considerable the past few years but has stayed positive ranging from $204 million in 2001 up to $962 million in 2002, dropping to $21 million in 2003 and coming in at $596 million in the trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet appears to be good with $1.8 billion in cash and $5.3 billion in other current assets, enough to cover the current liabilities of $6.0 billion but not quite enough to also cover all of the relatively small level of long term debt at $1.1 billion.

What about the valuation? I like to check with "Key Statistics" on Yahoo.com to review that part of the equation. The market cap on BBY is a large $16.9 billion. The trailing p/e isn't too bad at 23.95 and the forward p/e (fye 1-Mar-05) is better at 18.59. The PEG of 1.23 is also not too bad...being just a bit over 1.0. The price/sales is also nice at 0.68.

BBY has 324.67 million shares outstanding with 264.0 million of them that float. Currently there are 7.63 million shares out short as of 3/8/04, representing 2.186 trading days or 2.89% of the float. IMHO, this is moderate but not a heavy short interest.

The company DOES pay a small dividend of $.40/share yielding 0.83%. Yahoo reports that the last stock split was in May, 2002, when BBY had a 3:2 split.

What about the technicals? If we look at a "Point and figure" chart on BBY, we can see that the stock broke through a resistance level of about $27 in December 2002, and has headed higher since. It recently peaked around $62/share in December 2003, but is still trading above its "support level".

Overall, I think this is a great stock. The recent reports are very nice. I actually KNOW the retail venture as this is one of the places where my kids and I like to hang out on that Saturday afternoon to see the new computers or new DVD's or CD's. Seems like we spend a lot of Birthday money there! The balance sheet and free cash flow is solid, the PEG is reasonable and the technicals look nice. What is there NOT to like. I shall not be adding to my trading portfolio yet, as I am still WAITING for a sale of a portion of one of my holdings at a GAIN before adding Position #21. :).

Thanks so much for stopping by! I hope the above discussion was helpful for you! If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement (which ARE actually appreciated!), please email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 12:50 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Monday, 29 March 2004
"Seven Months Ago" A longer term view examining the week of September 1, 2003

Hello Friends! I am just getting around to doing my "retrospective" that I usually do on weekends. Fortunately, the week of September 1, 2003, was a pretty quiet week with only three stock picks. Unfortunately, the stock picks were not the best we have ever made! Well that's the good news and the bad news.

On September 2, 2003, I selected Sohu.com (SOHU) for Bob's Advice. At that time SOHU was trading at $33.47. SOHU closed today, 3/29/04, at $24.94 for a loss of $(8.53) or (25.5)%.

On February 2, 2004, SOHU reported Fourth Quarter, 2003, financial results. For the quarter ended December 31, 2003, revenue grew 133% to $24.6 million. Diluted net income/share increased to $.28/share from $.07/share the prior year. These are very nice
results.

On September 3, 2003, I posted Take Two Interactive (TTWO) on Bob's Advice at $35.75. TTWO closed today, 3/29/04, at $36.94, for a gain of $1.19 or 3.3%.

On March 4, 2004, TTWO announced 1st quarter 2004 results. Net sales were down for the quarter ended January 31, 2004, at $375.5 million compared to $411.0 million last year. Diluted net income for the quarter was $31.8 million compared to $51.5 million the prior year or $.70/share vs $1.22/share last year. These results are not consistent with our philosophy of continued earnings and revenue growth on this BLOG and I would not be able to continue to recommend purchase.

Finally, on September 4, 2003, I posted Interpore, Intl (BONZ) on Bob's Advice for Stocks at a price of $17.50/share. BONZ closed at $14.35/share on 3/29/04 for a loss of $(3.15) or (18)%.

Biomet (BMET) announced that they will be acquiring all of the outstanding common shares of BONZ at $14.50/share in cash. We will not be following this stock after the acquisition which was reported on TheStreet.com on 3/8/04.

Our three stocks posted that week had an average LOSS of (13.4)%. Nothing much to write home about for THAT week! Thanks again for stopping by. Remember to do your own due diligence (as you can see that we certainly CAN lose money around these parts!), and email me if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


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March 29, 2004 Gevity HR (GVHR)

Hello Friends! Happy Monday, and a happy one it is for us too with the market up nicely today and our stocks participating. As always, please do your own investigation on all of the stocks discussed and review them with your financial advisor to make sure they are suitable for you!

This BLOG must be getting pretty long as I have now had two repeats of my OWN postings! (AVP, and UNF). I THINK I am too young for what some of my older friends call a "senior moment". We just have so MANY stocks listed here. Please spend some time browsing through these lists. There is definitely a pony in there somewhere :).

Today I came across Gevity HR (GVHR) on the list of greatest gainers. Currently, as I write, GVHR is trading at $28.10, up $2.37 or 9.21% on the day. According to the Yahoo profile on Gevity, GVHR "...is a provider of human capital management solutions to clinents across the United States. The Company offers its clinets, which are typically small to medium-sized businesses with between five and 100 employees, products and services that provide a complete solution for the clients' human resources (HR) outsourcing needs."

What pushed the stock higher today was the news that Gevity was purchasing the "HR outsourcing portfolio of EPIX holdings Corp." which is expected to add to Gevity's earnings by $9 million or between $.08-$.10/share this year. Thus, the company RAISED its earnings estimates to a range of $.98 to $1.10/share as a result of this transaction. As you can see, raising earnings estimates by a company is very BULLISH for the stock price. By the way, I do NOT own any shares or positions in this company.

If we look at the latest earnings report we can see that on February 17, 2004, GVHR reported that fully diluted earnings per share grew to $.19/share from $.06/share for the period ended December 31, 2003, compared to the prior year same period. For the same period, revenue increased from $96 million to $118 million.

If we look at "5-Yr Restated" financials on Morningstar.com, we can see a steady increase in revenue from $256.2 million in 1998 to $403.9 million in the trailing twelve months.

Earnings, however, have been a bit erratic, ranging from $.97/share in 1998, dropping to a loss of $(.76)/share in 2001, and then back up to $.49/share in the trailing twelve months.

The company started paying dividends in 2001, and increased the dividend in 2002 to $.20/share. On March 11, 2004, GVHR announced a 20% increase in their dividend, as reported, increasing the payout from $.05 to $.06/share. This is also BULLISH for the stock price!

Free cash flow, as reported on Morningstar.com, has been erratic but positive recently, with $35 million in 2000, $(3) million in 2001, $34 million in 2002 and $10 million free cash flow in the trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet appears solid with $121.6 million in cash and $103.5 million in other current assets, enough to cover botht the $152.9 million in current liabilities and the $54.1 million in long-term liabilities.

If we look at "Key Statistics" from Yahoo, we can see that the market cap is a small $541.79 million. The trailing p/e is a bit rich at 45.45 but the forward p/e (fye 31-Dec-05) is more reasonable at 23.56. The valuation isn't as expensive as it appears, due to the fast growth in earnings anticipated, and the PEG is nice at 1.00. The price/sales also reasonable (imho) at 1.17.

GVHR has 19.32 million shares outstanding with only 12.20 million of them that float. There are 1.31 million shares out short, representing 10.76% of the float and 5.252 trading days of volume. (We may be witnessing a bit of a short squeeze right now!) These figures are as of 2/9/04.

As noted, the company DOES pay a small, but increasing, dividend of $.24/share yielding 0.93%. No stock splits are reported on Yahoo.

Looking at a "Point and Figure" chart on Stockcharts.com, all that I can say is that after breaking through a resistance level of $3.25/share, the stock has been heading higher very steadily to its current level. This is really a beautiful chart!

So, what is there NOT to like? Unfortunately, even though my trading portfolio is at 20 positions, with a goal of 25, I am SITTING ON MY HANDS, trying very hard at self-discipline. I am waiting for one of my 20 stocks to hit a sell point for a portion of my holdings before I add a position. You heard me right. That is the plan. Now let me see if I can stay with it.

This company has a nice recent record of revenue growth, is RAISING its earnings estimates, RAISING its dividend, generating free cash flow, has a nice balance sheet, and a beautiful chart. I think I am in love :). Anyhow, good luck investing.

If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:16 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
"How are we doing?" A look back on the week of January 12, 2004

Hello Friends! It is Monday, and I haven't gotten my homework done for this BLOG. Yikes. But the first part is pretty easy. This is the short term retrospective. This week we are up to the week of January 12, 2004. That was a VERY quiet week for me with no picks at all. Can you believe that?

What I did do was purchase CREE, 200 shares for $25.127/share in my trading account on 1/16/04. This was NOT a great trade and was sold on 2/23/04, about 5 weeks later for a cost of $22.81/share, for a loss of $(2.32) or (9.2)%. As of 3/26/04, CREE closed at $20.75, so you can see, the sale was a good one and purchase wasn't!

Will try to get you the seven month retrospective in the next day or two. Now THAT will take a little longer to put together! Thanks so much for stopping by. Remember to always do your own due diligence, and consult with your investment advisors before taking any action based on information on this BLOG.

If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 7:40 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Friday, 26 March 2004
March 26, 2004 National Med Health Card Sys (NMHC)
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by. I have started my "housework" on the blog for the week and have now updated my Website as well...the prices listed on past picks are a little more recent now. As always, do your homework on all of the stocks mentioned on this blog and make use of your own investment advisors to know if investments discussed are appropriate or timely for you!

National Medical Health Card System (NMHC) came up on the list of top NASDAQ gainers. As I write, NMH is trading at $25.06, up $1.89 or 8.16% on the day. According to the Profile for NMHC on Yahoo finance, NMHC "...provides pharmacy benefit management (PBM) services under the name NMHCRX through its network of licensed pharmacies throughout the United States."

On February 2, 2004, NMHC reported Second Quarter 2004 results. Revenue for the 2004 second quarter was $163.9 million, compared to revenue of $151.0 million for the same period the prior year. Net income for the 2004 fiscal quarter increased 35.4% to $2.2 million or $.25/diluted share vs. $1.6 million or $.20/diluted share the same period last year.

If we check the "5-Yr Restated" financials on Morningstar.com we can see that revenue has been growing steadily from $128.3 million in 1999, to $573.3 million in 2003 and $576.7 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings have grown steadily from 2001 when they were $.16/share, increasing to $.82/share in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow has also been improving nicely, increasing from $8 million in 2001 the $20 million in the trailing twelve months.

One of my concerns with this data is the balance sheet. NMHC has $4.9 million in cash and $89.2 million in other current assets, but also has $128.8 million in current liabilities that need to be paid ASAP. Their long-term debt is low at $4.4 million.

It is interesting to see these balance sheet and anticipate financial issues that need to be dealt with. The latest piece of news on NMHC is a story about the placement of $80 million in convertible preferred stock with "New Mountain Partners, L.P.". This should take care of any liquidity problems and I believe with the growing free cash flow, NMHC shouldn't be having additional problems unless their business results should deteriorate.

How is NMHC 'valued'? Let's take a look at "Key Statistics" from Yahoo.com on NMHC. The Market Cap is a small $199.36 million. The trailing p/e is reasonable at 28.87, the forward p/e is 24.78 (fye 30-Jun-05). No PEG is reported (for anticipated 5-yr growth) probably because no analysts have estimates that far out! The company does sell at a reasonable 0.31 for price/sales.

Yahoo reports 7.96 million shares outstanding with 4.30 million of them that float. I do not own ANY shares of this stock. As of 3/8/04, there are 125,000 shares out short representing 2.91% of the float or 1.923 trading days. No dividend is paid and no stock splits are reported.

Checking a "Point and Figure" chart from Stockcharts.com, we can see that the stock broke through its last resistance level in February, 2003, at about $9.0 and has headed higher steadily over the last year.

Overall I like this stock. I like the industry they are in...pharmacy management, the revenue growth, the earnings growth, the expanding free cash flow, the reasonable p/e. I didn't like all of those current liabilities...but management took care of that with a sale of a convertible issue.
Of course, I do not have any cash to buy anything (LOL) and will not be buying anything if I have any self control...until I sell a portion at a gain! Same old story.

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:05 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink

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