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Sunday, 18 April 2004
"Seven Months Ago" A longer term view examining the week of September 22, 2003
Hello Friends! This is the bit of the longer post...if you are new to this BLOG, well, I would CERTAINLY like to welcome you. Remember to always do your own work on investigating these stock market investment ideas and PLEASE consult with your investment advisor as I am just a fellow amateur investor and do not know whether the investments discussed are appropriate or timely for you!

During the week of September 22, 2003, I reviewed nine stocks on Bob's Advice. Let's see how they have done since I posted them. I currently do not own ANY of these stocks.

On 9/22/03, I picked Bio-Reference Lab (BRLI) on this blog at $11.63. BRLI closed at $14.94 on 4/16/04 for a gain of $3.31 or 28.5%.

So how are they doing now? BRLI announced 1st quarter 2004 results on 3/4/04. Net revenue was $29.0 million, a 22% increase over $23.8 million in the same quarter in 2003, and on a fully diluted per share basis, net income was $.07/share compared to $.04/share the prior year. BRLI is doing just fine!

On 9/22/03, I posted TBC Corp (TBCC) on Bob's Advice at $24.13/share. TBCC closed at $28.79 on 4/16/04 for a gain of $4.66 or 19.3%.

Looking for recent news on TBC, on February 11, 2004, TBC reported 4th quarter 2003 results: same store sales of this tire business were up 4.5% during the quarter. Net sales for the quarter were up 33.5% to $370.7 million from $277.8 million in the same period the prior year. Net income increased 17.1% to $9.5 million from $8.1 million the prior year or $.41/diluted share vs $.37/diluted share the prior year. This tire store appears to be 'rolling right along...no flat tire here!'

Speaking of cars, on 9/24/03 I posted America's Car-Mart (CRMT) on Bob's Advice at $29.61. CRMT closed at $30.37 on 4/16/04 for a gain of $.76 or 2.6%.

The 3rd quarter 2004 results were released on 3/2/04. Revenue increased 14% from the prior quarter. HOWEVER, and this is a big HOWEVER, diluted earnings per share declined 17% from the prior year quarter. They came in at $.35/diluted share vs. $.42/diluted share the prior year. This kind of performance keeps me from repeating the plug for this stock on this blog. Would I sell the stock if I owned it? Probably not if I didn't have a loss....but then again...who knows? I certainly would be watching closely at the soon to be announced earnings.

On 9/24/03, I picked Multimedia Games (MGAM) on the blog at $34.30/share. MGAM split 2:1 on 3/1/04, for a resultand net selection price at $17.15. MGAM closed on 4/16/04 at $24.01 for a nice gain of $6.86 or 40%.

On 1/27/04, MGAM reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Revenue was up 32.0% to $34.5 million from $26.1 million the prior year. Net income, however, dropped (2.4)% to $7.3 million from $7.5 million. On a per share basis, fully diluted, this was a drop of (4.0)% to $.48 from $.50 the prior year. Just like the prior post, we have a great paper-profit on our pick...but I would be cautious on buying at this point until I can see what the soon-to-be released earnings demonstrate!

The WD-40 Company (WDFC) was selected for this blog on 9/25/03 at a price of $31.20. On 4/16/04, WDFC closed at $31.30 for a small gain of $.10/share or .3%.

It is interesting how a flat stock appreciation may reflect a flat earnings report! I guess that is what this blog is all about...anyhow, on 4/13/04, WDFC reported 2nd quarter 2004 results: net sales came in at $58.5 million, an increase of 0.2% over prior year results. Net income for the quarter was $6.2 million or $.36/share DOWN 23.9% compared to $8.2 million or $.49/share the prior year. These results DEFINITELY need a little WD40 to get them moving! Now seriously, I am not excited over the quarter's results!

PHEW...hang in there...five down and four to go!

On 9/25/03, I picked CREE for Bob's Advice at $22.16. CREE closed at $20.82 on 4/16/04 for a loss of $(1.34) or (6.0)%.

CREE reported 3rd quarter 2004 results on 4/15/04. Revenue for the quarter came in at $77.1 million, a 28% increase over the $60.2 million reported in the same period the prior year. Net income was up 42% to $15.1 million or $.20/diluted share vs $10.6 million or $.14/diluted share the prior year. These are great results, and I still like this stock even though we are DOWN from the selection price, and even though I MYSELF made a purchase of CREE in my trading account a few months ago and got stopped right out at the 8% loss level!

On 9/26/03, I picked Cherokee (CHKE) for the blog at a price of $20.90. CHKE closed at $23.18 on 4/16/04 for a gain of $3.09 or 14.8%.

Cherokee 4th quarter 2004 results on 3/31/04. Revenue was up 7.6% in the quarter and net income was up 6.9% for the quarter. These were nice results!

Hang in there! Two to go:

Abaxis (ABAX) was posted on Stock Picks Bobs Advice on 9/26/03 at a price of $13.40. ABAX closed at $22.23 on 4/16/04 for a gain of $8.83 or 65.9%.

ABAX reported 3rd quarter 2004 results on 1/29/04. Quarterly revenues came in at $12.3 million up 45% from the prior year. Diluted earnings per share came in at $.05/share up from $.01/share the prior year. This company is going like 'gang-busters'! Too bad I don't own any shares!

O.K. the LAST ONE! (these weekend things DO get long...are they too long for you??)

On September 26, 2003, I posted RIMM at $38.24/share...Now get this, I haven't checked this one for a while, and RIMM closed at $100.55/share on 4/16/04 for a gain of $62.31 or 163%!!

Wow. (And I NEVER bought a single share!)

Well what about their earnings? On April 7, 2004, RIMM reported fourth quarter 2004 results. Revenue was up 37% SEQUENTIALLY (!) and 141% from the $87.5 million in the prior year to $210.6 million this year. Net income was $41.5 million or $.46/diluted share compared to $16.3 million or $.20/diluted share the PRIOR quarter or compared to the prior year same period when they had a LOSS of $(31) million or $(.40)/diluted share. This company is doing great and the stock price has gone to the moon!!!

So in summary, there were nine stocks posted that week with actually a fabulous performance with only one stock, CREE, losing money down (6.0)% during the period. (And WOULDN'T YOU KNOW IT, THAT's the ONLY ONE that I DID purchase from that list!!!)....oh well. The other eight stocks had gains ranging from .3% for WD40 to 163% for RIMM for an average gain for the nine stocks of 36.5%.

Anyhow, remember that past performance is NO GUARANTEE of future performance for ANY stock!

Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Hope everyone has a great week investing!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:12 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
"How are we doing?" A look back on the week of February 2, 2004

Hello Friends! It is almost the END of the weekend and I haven't gotten my homework for this website done yet. For those of you who know me, this has got to be my life's story...last minute you know. Well let's see if we can get this accomplished. As always, here comes the disclaimer (!), remember to do all you own research before making any investment decisions based on information on this website, and PLEASE consult with your investment advisors to make sure that investment decisions you make are timely and appropriate for you!

Well, we are up to the week of February 2, 2004, for our short-term review....about ten weeks out...and about 7 months out on the longer-term view. Soon I will have this BLOG up for a full year....I once heard if you can do something regularly for six weeks then you are likely to succeed in continuing to perform this activity...and so MANY blogs I come across...well the authors just seep to poop out. (Is that good English)...but you know what I mean. ANYHOW, to make a short story long, let's take a look at that first week in February.

On Bob's Advice, I made six selections that week: Avon Products (AVP), Hain Celestial Group (HAIN), American Dental Partners (ADPI), Claire's Stores (CLE), Starcraft (STCR), and Mine Safety Appliances (MSA). Of these six, the only stock that I purchased and continue to own is CLE which I own in my "Current Trading Portfolio".

AVP was selected at $68.29 on 2/4/04. AVP closed at $79.01, for a gain of $10.72 or 15.7%.

Also on 2/4/04, I picked HAIN for the blog at a price of $22.55. HAIN closed at 4/16/04 at $20.19 for a loss of $(2.36) or (10.5)%.

Finally, on 2/4/04, I posted ADPI on the blog at $13.00. ADPI closed at $15.02 on 4/16/04 for a gain of $2.02 or 15.5%.

On 2/5/04, I came across CLE and posted Claire's when it was trading at $20.30. CLE closed at $20.82 on 4/16/04 for a gain of $.52 or 2.6%.

On February 6, 2004, I listed Starcraft (STCR) on Bob's Advice at $17.50. STCR closed at $14.68 on 4/16/04 for a loss of $(2.82) or (16.1)%.

Finally, on Sunday, 2/8/04, I posted MSA on Bob's Advice at a price of $27.13. MSA closed on 4/16/04 at $28.70 for a gain of $1.57 or 5.8%.

Due to the two significant losses which almost overcame all of the profits in the other four picks, the average gain for the six stocks over the 10 week period was 2.17%.

Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Regards!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 8:50 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Friday, 16 April 2004
"Trading Transparency" CLSR, VMSI

Hello Friends! Am not seeing any NEW stocks out there that fit our criteria, but did see VMSI make a nice move today. This morning VMSIannounced 1st quarter 2004 results which were quite nice and at the same time upped guidance for 2004. Both of these were bullish for the share price which as I write is trading at $46.85 up $4.64 or 10.99% on the day. I first posted VMSI on Stock Picks Bobs Advice on 12/23/03, about 4 months ago when it was trading at $39.80. Oh well, we own some shares now!

A few moments ago, I sold my 150 shares of CLSR in my "Current Trading Portfolio" at a price of $23.381/share. I had purchased these shares almost one year ago on 7/17/03 at a cost of $22.91, so we did eke out a few cents of profit on this sale. Fortunately, on this lot, I sold 50 shares on 9/8/03 with a gain of $54.19, and another 50 shares on 11/24/03 with a gain of $624.66....so this stock has done well for us...or at least adequately. In the CANSLIM book by William O'Neill, he relates the importance of not letting gains turn into losses...so exercising that lesson, I went ahead and sold my CLSR as it was approaching the break-even point!

What drove CLSR down was a first quarter 2004 earnings report which on first glance seems just fine but apparently analysts on the street were quite concerned about comments on the following 2nd quarter results, which they were warning might not be as strong as analysts had expected. In any case, it was trading quite poorly and out it went before we hit a loss...and in came a stock with a company RAISING earnings estimates..a nice change!

Please remember to do your own due diligence on all of the stocks mentioned on this blog and website and use your investment advisors if you have any question about the investments mentioned here.

If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please write to me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com and I will try to respond on the blog!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:55 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Friday, 16 April 2004 12:01 PM CDT
Thursday, 15 April 2004
April 15, 2004 Option Care (OPTN)

Hello Friends! It is tax time around here. So I hope you all have made your filing deadlines. Anyhow, as always, remember to do your own investigation and use your financial advisors to find out if stocks that are discussed on this website are timely and appropriate for you!

Option Care (OPTN) is having a nice day today, in the midst of what appears to be a continued correction, trading at $13.37 up $1.37 or 11.42% on the day. I do not own any shares or have any leveraged or short positions on this stock.

According to the Yahoo "Profile", OPTN "...provides pharmacy services to patients with acute and chronic conditions at the patient's home or other alternate-site settings such as physicians' offices."

What drove the stock up today was a report from the company that first quarter revenue and profit would exceed analysts expectations. For the quarter, OPTN is expecting earnings of $.20/share and revenue of $103 million ahead of the $98.8 million in revenue and $.18/share anticipated. It is almost ALWAYS bullish for a stock when the company raises expectations beyond what the analysts consensus is.

On February 17, 2004, OPTN reported 4th quarter results. For the quarter, revenues came in at $96 million, a 5% increase from revenue the prior year. Net income was $4.0 million or $.19/dilued share vs. $3.0 million or $.14/share the prior year.\

Looking at "5-Yr Restated" financials on Morningstar.com, we can see that revenues have grown from $114.9 million in 1998 to $351.1 million the trailing twelve months.

Earnings per share have been a little less consistent but we can see from the latest quarter (above) and the upcoming quarter (above) that revenue and earnings growth is back on track.

In addition, the Morningstar evaluation demonstrates that free cash flow which was $(12) million in 2001, turned positive at $5 million in 2002, and $22 million in the trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet looks just fine to me. They have $3.6 million in cash and $73.8 million in other current assets vs. $22.6 millin in current liabilities and only $9.3 million in long-term liabilities.

Looking at "Key Statistics" from Yahoo, we can see that this is a small cap stock with a market cap of $282.34 million. The trailing p/e is moderate at 32.58, but with the fast growth the forward p/e is nicer at 15.76 (fye 31-Dec-05). Thus the PEG is very nice at 0.81, and the price/sales also reasonable at 0.71.

Yahoo reports 21.09 million shares outstanding with 13.10 million of them that float. As of 3/8/04, there were 375,000 shares out short representing 4.31 trading days of volume or 2.86% of the float. This was down from the prior months' 451,000 shares out short.

No cash dividend is paid, and the last stock split was a 5:4 on 5/2/02.

Looking at a "Point and Figure" chart, we can see that OPTN was trading sideways until about April, 2003, when it broke through a resistance level at about $10.50, and has traded higher since that time.

Altogether, I kind of like this stock! The growth is steady and apparently accelerating, the valuation is great with a low forward p/e, although the trailing p/e isn't quite as nice. The PEG and the Price/Sales are BOTH under 1.0, making it a nice value as well. My only problem is that I am going to SIT on my hands at least until I can sell a portion of my holdings at a profit!

Thanks so much for stopping by! Again, if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Regards!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:13 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
"A reader writes" Help
Hello Friends! Thanks again for stopping by. I will try to be entertaining and informative today. As always, please remember to do your own research on all stocks mentioned on this website and consult with your investment advisors.

A reader writes:

Hi, a friend told me about you and I've been reading your interstening
stuff since I started thinking about
investing. Thanks a lot for your efforts to help people like me.
I appreciated it and sure did a lot of others even
you don't hear from them.
Well, here is my story. I have 10 k that I want to invest for 2
years and I want to have atleast 8k profit. Could
you please tell me if that possible at all.I'm willing to take all the risks. Thanks .
Simon


Well, thanks for the compliments. First of all, is it possible to have $8,000 profit on a $10,000 investment? I suppose so but that is a rather high profit target. Most of the time, one can anticipate over long periods of time receiving an 8% investment return if you are fortunate to be invested in a balanced portfolio in an otherwise uneventful market.

Let me emphasize here, that I am not a miracle worker. I am an amateur investor, apparently like you, who just likes to invest in stocks and share a few ideas about how to approach stock picking. If you read my blog, sometimes you will see that I can lose money QUICKLY...unfortunately for me. And sometimes I get lucky too! However, I strongly support the idea of cutting your losses quickly and selling your winners slowly. Also, it is important, in my opinion, to have a discipline about buying stocks of successful companies. That is what my stock screening is all about.

Please understand that what I write is NOT a get rich quick scheme. Could somebody possibly do real well on the stocks I mention. It is possible. It is also possible to lose money.

I would like to apologize if I have discouraged you from investing or trying to do well. That is not my intention. I just want you and all of the people to stop by here to appreciate that I like to pick stocks and stimulate thinking....and if we can also make a few $'s along the way, that would be terrific!

I would love to hear from you about what you decided to do with your investment $'s and how everything is working out! Remember you can email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Regards,

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 7:50 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Wednesday, 14 April 2004
"A Reader Writes" How about HAE, DKE, and SIRI?
Hello Friends! Not much to pick from today in the market but I received a great email today about some other stocks. As always, please do your own investigation of these stocks, and check with your financial advisors to make sure they are appropriate and timely for you!

Briefly, let's take a look at these issues. I do not have any shares of any of these three stocks nor do I own any options or leveraged positions.

Haemonetics (HAE) closed today, 4/14/04, at $29.65, up $.28 or 0.95%. According to the Yahoo "Profile", HAE "...is engaged in developing and manufacturing technology to help ensure the blood supply is safe, supplies are adequate and that blood banks and hospitals operate efficiently and in compliance with regulatory requirements."

On January 22, 2004, HAE reported 3rd quarter 2004 financial results. Revenue came in at $91 million, up 4% from the prior year. Earnings per share were $.38/share, down 10% from the prior year. At first glance, this appears to be a rather anemic revenue performance and a weaker earnings report.

Looking at the "5-Yr Restated" financials from Morningstar.com, we can see that revenue HAS grown fairly steadily from $285 million in 1999 to $347 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings per share have been a bit erratic, peaking at $1.13 in 2003, and then dropping to $.99 in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow has been solid with $41 million in free cash flow in 2001, dropping to $11 million in 2002, but increasing to $50 million in the trailing twelve months. The balance sheet is also healthy with $97.2 million in cash and $168.8 million in other current assets as opposed to $102.4 million in current liabilities and $30 million in long-term liabilities.

What do I think? This may be a GREAT stock, but the latest quarter is a bit of a turn-off for me. I hate to get hung up over one quarter, but that is one of the criteria for me that I use. I would rather see more dynamic revenue growth and certainly earnings improvement to recommend a stock. If you do choose HAE, I wish you the best of luck and hopefully you will make loads of money as there are certainly other issues to consider beyond my screening tests.

Technically, if we look at a "Point and Figure" chart on HAE, we can see that recently HAE reversed a downward move in the market and sometime in about September, 2003, broke through a resistance area about $18 and has moved up smartly since then.

How about those other stocks you mentioned? Duke Energy (DKE) closed today at $13.62 down $(.13) or (0.95%) on the day. DKE is actually Duke Energy Units, and I cannot make heads or tails on this one. In fact, I am having a tough time getting much data on this company at all. You will need to fill me in, as certainly this is not a typical investment and not a "growth stock" that I prefer.

Finally, what about SIRI? SIRI is Sirius Satellite
SIRI closed today, 4/14/04 at $3.75, down $(0.01) or (0.27)%. On January 28, 2004, SIRI announced 4th quarter 2003 financial results. Total revenue was $5.0 million compared to $685,000 the prior year. The net loss was $(147.8) million or $(.14)/share compared to a net loss of $(134.1) million or $(1.74)/share the prior year.

If you follow my BLOG, you will know that I do not like to suggest or invest in stocks of company that are losing money. Even if it is a start-up! That doesn't mean SIRI might not be a GREAT investment for you. What with Chrysler adding on the options for SIRI...but just something I stick to in this website. Even if I am NOT very good at sticking to all of my rules :).

If we look at the "5-Yr Restated" financials on SIRI, we can see that during the last twelve months, they had revenue of $9 million. They lost $(1.94)/share, and had negative cash flow of $(292) million. I mean they lost almost $300 million to produce a revenue of $9 million! Looking at the cash picture, Morningstar shows them with $450.5 million in cash and $54.8 million in other current assets. This is compared with $66.1 million in current liabilities and $270.6 million in long-term liabilities. At this cash "burn" rate, they will be out of cash in about 18 months. On top of this they have been issuing shares like CRAZY to stay afloat. They have gone from 52 million shares in 2001, to 76 million shares in 2002, to 998 million shares in the trailing twelve months.

Just not my best pick imho. However, it might turn out to be a GREAT investment, and if you purchased any of the preceding stocks then I wish you the best of luck!

I hope this discussion was helpful to you. I do not mean to infer that any of the stocks discussed are necessarily BAD investments, just that they don't fit into my selection process. I cannot even get information on DKE. HAE almost makes the cut...so of the 3 that would be my selection if I had to pick one!

Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any further questions, comments, etc., please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 5:16 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
"Trading Transparency Update" CGPI
Hello Friends! I just wanted to go ahead and give you the exact details on that latest trade. This morning I sold 400 shares of CGPI out of my "Trading Account" at $12.75. These shares were acquired only two days earlier (4/12/04) (!) at $14.02. Yikes. And we really WEREN'T supposed to buy anything until I sold a portion of an existing position.

Well back to the blackboard..."I will follow the rules, I will follow the rules......" Eventually, I will learn my trading rules! I promise.

As always please remember to do your own due diligence on all stocks discussed here and PLEASE consult with your financial advisors to make sure that investments discussed are timely and appropriate for you! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, I would love to hear from you at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Please be warned that I may include parts or all of your emails in the blog so that others may benefit from YOUR comments and discussion! I will try to keep your identity confidential...just using your first name and first last name initial.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:28 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
"Trading Transparency" CGPI
Well I did it friends. Hit my 9% loss on my CGPI that I shouldn't have bought anyhow. Serves me right I guess. Anyway out it went this morning about a minute ago. That's the market talking to us. Telling us to take money off the table...or at least to reduce our margin!

Thanks for stopping by! Details to follow.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 8:45 AM CDT | Post Comment | View Comments (1) | Permalink
Tuesday, 13 April 2004
Update on KYPH trade
Hello Friends! Just wanted to update that trade I posted earlier. Here is the scoop: I sold my 300 shares of KYPH earlier today at $25.742/share. I had just purchased these shares on 4/5/04 at $28.16. Thus, I had a loss of $(2.418) or (8.6)%, and hitting the sell-point....out they went. I am also having some problems with the CGPI purchased yesterday (yikes), which is also flirting with the 8% loss level. Will keep an eye on that one and let you know!

What does all this mean? Well the market is always talking to you if you want to listen. I did NOT wait to sell a portion of a holding at a gain before buying the CGPI....and now look at it! When you start hitting sell points on what I consider quality stocks, it is time to retrench. Don't hesitate to sell if you hit your sell point...and don't jump in right away until you have a reason to think the market is behaving better...for us that mean't selling a portion of a stock at a large gain!

Thanks so much for stopping by! Remember to do your own due diligence and consult with your investment advisors! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 2:50 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
"Trading Transparency" KYPH
Hello Friends! Quick note. I hit an (8.5)% loss on my 300 shares of KYPH and I sold them earlier today!

Details to follow.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:58 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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