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Sunday, 29 May 2005
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of April 5, 2004

Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor so please consult with your professional investment advisors prior to acting on any information on this website.


I came across this World War II vintage war poster on the Illinois State Museum website.

I hope you are all having a happy and healthy Memorial Day Weekend. We should all pause this weekend and remember all of the men and women who have served this country in our nation's history. And the many who are serving in harm's way even as I write!







Since it is the weekend, it is time to do a little reviewing around here. If you are new to this website, I like to pick lots of stocks, some of which I do add to my own portfolio, but most, I just present for consideration and my own observations as they fit many of the criteria that I use to pick stocks! In order to get a feeling for what actually happened to the many stocks mentioned here, I use the weekend to review my past stock ideas. I am a little more than a year out from my reviews.

This simple analysis depends on a "buy and hold" strategy. Simply put, I am assuming that I purchased each of the stocks I discussed at the mentioned price, and I am assuming I still hold those same stocks. In reality, I actually stop out of my stocks at an 8% loss on the downside and sell portions of my stocks on the upside as they make targeted gains. Thus, in practice, my own actual performance would be different than what I am now reviewing!

During the week of April 5, 2004, I posted two stocks: Juno Lighting on April 7, 2004, and ValueClick (VCLK) on April 8, 2004.

JUNO was selected on April 7, 2004, at a price of $33.50. JUNO closed at $39.97 on 5/27/05, for a gain of $6.47 or 19.3%.

On March 24, 2005, JUNO reported 1st quarter 2005 results. For the three months ended February 28, 2005, revenue jumped 20% to $60.8 million from $50.9 million. The company earned $1.5 million or $.48/share, up from $493,000 or $.19/share the prior year. These were solid results with both strong revenue and earnings growth reported!

I selected ValueClick for Stock Picks on April 8, 2004, when it was trading at $12.16. VCLK closed at $10.69 on 5/27/05, for a loss of $(1.47) or (12.1)%.

On May 4, 2005, VCLK reported 1st quarter 2005 results. Revenue grew nicely to $51.4 million from $38.7 million the prior year. However, earnings came in at $8.7 million, or $.10/share, down from $13.4 million or $.16/share the prior year.

So how did we do with these two selections on Stock Picks? Juno was up 19.3% from the pick price, and ValueClick was down (12.1)% from the selection price, thus the average performance of these two was a gain of 3.6%.

I just haven't had much luck with those small dot-com stocks! Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Again, I am wishing all of you a happy and safe Memorial Day Weekend!

Bob







Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 2:07 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Thursday, 26 May 2005
"Revisiting a Stock Pick" Michaels Stores (MIK)

Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors, as I am truly an amateur investor, prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

Looking through the list of top % gainers on the NYSE today, I came across Michaels Stores, which as I write, is trading at $41.25, up $1.73 or 4.38% on the day. I do not own any shares or options on this stock.

Michaels (MIK) is an old favorite of mine here on Stock Picks, even though I haven't made the plunge and purchased any shares (I can't own EVERYTHING :)!) I first posted Michaels Stores (MIK) on Stock Picks on August 28, 2003, when it was trading at $43.01. MIK closed at $22.38 on that day, adjusted for a 2:1 stock split on 10/13/04, our stock pick price was actually at $21.51. Thus, the stock has appreciated nicely since my original post.

According to the Yahoo "Profile" on MIK, Michaels "...is a national arts and crafts specialty retailer providing materials, ideas and education for creative activities." I know about Michaels personally, because that is one of the places I go to for all of my kids' projects at school!

Taking a look at the 1st quarter 2005 results report, which came out after the close yesterday, we can see that for the first quarter ended April 30, 2005, total sales increased 13.1% to $821.0 million from $725.9 million the same quarter the prior year. Same-store sales grew 7.8% for the quarter, a super result! Net income increased 58.6% to $46.5 million from $29.3 million the prior year, and diluted earnings per share jumped 57.1% for the quarter to $.33/share vs $.21/share in the same quarter in 2004. I almost wish I had reviewed this stock prior to buying the GCO....oh well.

How about longer-term results? Taking a look at the "5-Yr Restated" financials on Morningstar, we can see that revenue has grown steadily from $2.2 billion in 2001 to $3.4 billion in the trailing twelve months (TTM).

Earnings during this period have consistently been growing from $.58/share in 2001 to $1.45 in the TTM.

Free cash flow, which was a bit weak in 2003 at $1 million, has grown fabulously, to $337 million in the TTM.

The balance sheet is solid with $586.2 million in cash and $985 million in other current assets. This is plenty to cover both the $511.9 million in current liabilities and the $302.6 million in long-term liabilities as reported by Morningstar.com.

How about "valuation"? Checking "Key Statistics" from Yahoo on MIK, we can see that this is a large cap stock with a market capitalization of $5.59 billion. The trailing p/e is nice at 22.87, with a forward p/e (fye 29-Jan-07) even nicer at 19.58. Thus, with the nice growth rate, we have a "5 yr estimated" PEG at 1.09, barely over parity (1.0).

The price/sales for MIK is 1.58. However, if we look at other stocks in the "Toy & Hobby Stores" Industry Group, we can see that the stock is moderately priced, under the 1.8 price/sales of Build-a-Bear Workshop (BBW), but above the 0.8 price/sales of Brookstone (BKST), and the 0.5 price/sales ratio of Toys R Us (TOY).

Other points on Yahoo reveal that there are 135.28 million shares outstanding with 125.80 million that float. As of 5/9/05, there were 3.26 million shares out short, up significantly from the 2.04 million our short the prior month. This represents 3.247 days of trading or only 2.59% of the float. I don't think this is a big factor moving this stock in any particular direction.

The company does pay a small dividend of $.40/share yielding 1.02%. The last stock split, as noted earlier, was a 2:1 split on 10/13/04.

How about the chart? Taking a look at the "Point & Figure" chart on MIK from Stockcharts.com:


we cam see that this stock was moving higher from $6.00/share in January, 2001, to a peak of $25/share in September, 2002. The stock then pulled back to $10.50 in March, 2003, and has moved strongly higher since. The stock chart looks strong to me!

So what do I think? Well, how do I love thee, let me count the ways :). First, the stock moved higher today. That's a given! This was due to a GREAT stock report released yesterday after the close. Both revenue, earnings, and same-store sales growth were strong. The company has consistently been growing its revenues and earnings. Is generating large amounts of free cash, and has a solid balance sheet. Valuation is reasonable with a PEG just over 1.0, and the price/sales is moderately priced. Finally, the chart looks great.

This is certainly a stock I would be buying if I did have a buy signal, and hadn't already bought some GCO, although I like the numbers on GCO as well!

Please remember that I am an amateur, so do your own investigation, check with your financial advisors, and take all necessary precautions prior to investing based on anything on this website!

If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 2:03 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
"Trading Transparency" Genesco (GCO)
Hello Friends! Thanks again for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, need I repeat?, please remember that I am an AMATEUR investor so PLEASE consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

As you may know, if you are reading my previous post, I just sold some shares of AFFX at a 30+% gain, thus entitling me to add a new position, #24.

My goal is a 25 position portfolio, and I use an internal portfolio signal to add a position. Simply put, if I sell a portion of one of my holdings at a gain, I use this sale as a signal that the market is acting in a "bullish" fashion and that I can, if I am under my 25 position limit, add a position.

Getting to the point, a few moments ago I purchased 200 shares of Genesco (GCO) in my trading account at $34.36/share. I have previously reviewed GCO on this blog, and can do an update later, if I get a chance :). Genesco made the list of top % gainers today, a first requirement for any stock pick, and as I write, is trading at $34.45, up $3.05 or 9.71% on the day.

GCO reported solid earnings and revenue growth with solid same store sales growth (they are a shoe retailer), and raised guidance. That is a positive signal imho.

Thanks again for visiting. If you have any comments, or questions, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 12:42 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Thursday, 26 May 2005 12:52 PM CDT
"Trading Transparency" Affymetrix (AFFX)

Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please consult with your professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

My Affymetrix (AFFX) stock hit the first targeted sale point at a 30% gain earlier today. I sold 40 shares of my 160 share position a few moments ago at $53.38. They were purchased earlier this year on 1/27/05 with a cost basis of $40.98. Thus, I had a gain of $12.40/share or 30.3%. My next targeted sale of 1/4 of my holdings (30 shares) would be if it declines back to break-even on the downside or at a 60% gain on the upside. Wish me luck!

Since I am at 23 positions, under my goal of a 25 position portfolio, this "entitles" me to add a new position, and I can tell you, that that nickel is already burning a hole in my pocket! :)

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 12:07 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Tuesday, 24 May 2005
May 24, 2005 Forward Industries (FORD)

Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As I always do, I would like to remind you that I am truly an amateur investor, so PLEASE consult with your professional investment advisors before making any investment decisions based on information on this website. I cannot be responsible for any losses you incur trading ideas found here, nor shall I ask for any portion of your gains that you may accrue!

Scanning through the list of top % gainers on the NASDAQ, I came across Forward Industries (FORD). I have looked at this company before, although I do not believe I have ever posted anything here. This is a very small company, and try as I did to ignore it, the stock has repeatedly been showing up in the top % gainers list. I do not own any shares or options on this company.

FORD is having a good day today, trading at $20.43, up $1.14 or 5.91% on the day as I write. According to the CNN.Money "Snapshot" on FORD, the company's "...principal activity is to design, manufacture and market customized soft-sided carrying cases made from leather, nylon, vinyl and other synthetic fabrics. The products are utilized for transporting portable electronic products such as cellular telephones, medical instruments and computers."

What has been the driving force, imho, in moving the stock higher was the 2nd quarter 2005 earnings report released for Forward Industries on April 21, 2005. Net sales for the quarter jumped 125% to $11.24 million, net income quadrupled to $2.02 million or $.27/diluted share from $490,000, or $.08/diluted share in the same quarter a year ago!

How about a longer-term assessment? Looking at the "5-Yr Restated" financials on Morningstar.com, we can see that revenue has grown from $14.4 million in 2000 to $30.7 million in the trailing twelve months (TTM).

Earnings, while erratic, have grown from $.01/share in 2000 to $.67/share in the TTM.

Free cash flow, while small, has stayed positive at $1 million in the trailing twelve months. The balance sheet also looks great with $5.3 million in cash and $10.1 million in other current assets balanced against $3.5 million in current liabilities and NO long-term liabilities at all reported on Morningstar.com.

What about some "valuation" statistics on this stock? First of all, looking at Yahoo "Key Statistics" on Forward Industries (FORD), we can see that this is truly a micro-cap stock with a market capitalization of only $140.03 million. The trailing p/e is 30.84, but no PEG is listed, probably because there are no easily available estimates for future earnings! Price/sales is 4.25.

Yahoo reports 6.78 million shares outstanding with 6.30 million that float. As of 4/8/05, there were 581,000 shares out short representing 9.22% of the float or 0.468 trading days of volume. Since I use an arbitrary 3 day figure for significance, this isn't a large short-interest on this stock.

There are no cash dividends reported by Yahoo and no stock split is reported either.

What about "technicals"? Taking a look at a "Point and Figure" chart on FORD from Stockcharts.com:


you can see that this stock, which was trading lower through 2000, and into 2001, bottomed at about $.63/share, and has traded higher since August, 2002, climbing in a rather impressive fashion to its current levels at around $22/share!

So what do I think? Well, it is a terribly small company with a market cap under $200 million. However, the numbers reported in the last quarter were very impressive. I know nothing about their business and am concerned about the questions about "moats" that the Morningstar.com folks like to discuss, but on face value, the past five years have shown rather steady growth in revenues and earnings, the free cash flow while small is positive, the balance sheet is solid, and the graph looks great!

On the downside, a tiny stock like this is prone to volatility, so I certainly would be cautious and be aware of all the risks before jumping into a stock like this!

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to leave them here on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 2:59 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Monday, 23 May 2005
May 23, 2005 Dynamic Materials (BOOM)

Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor and that you need to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I was looking through the list of top % gainers on the NASDAQ today and realized that Dynamic Materials Corporation (BOOM) had made the list by gaining $6.25 or 19.91% on the day, to close at $37.64/share. I do not own any shares nor any options on this stock.

According to the Yahoo "Profile" on BOOM, Dynamic materials "...is engaged in the explosive metalworking business, which uses explosives to perform metal cladding and shock synthesis. The Company's explosive metalworking business includes the use of explosives to perform metal cladding and shock synthesis of industrial diamonds."

On May 5, 2005, BOOM reported 1st quarter 2005 results. Sales for the quarter ended March 31, 2005, increased 72% to $17.5 million from $10.2 million in the same quarter in 2004. Net income increased 692% to $1.6 million, or $.28/diluted share vs. net income of $.2 million or $.04/diluted share in the year ago quarter. These were phenomenal results!

How about longer-term? Taking a look at the "5-Yr Restated" financials on Morningstar.com, we can see a nice progression in revenue from $24 million in 2000 to $62 million in the trailing twelve months (TTM). Earnings have been a bit more erratic, improving from a loss of $(.43)/share in 2000 to $.77/share in the TTM.

Free cash flow has been positive if not growing at $4 million in 2002, and $4 million in the TTM.

The balance sheet on Morningstar looks solid with $1.5 million in cash and $22.2 million in other current assets, balanced against $12.3 million in current liabilities and $6.6 million in long-term liabilities.

What about "valuation"? Looking at Yahoo "Key Statistics" on BOOM, we can see that this is a very small company with an almost microcap capitalization of $205.78 million. The trailing p/e is a bit rich at 37.27. No estimates are noted on Yahoo for any forward p/e. The Price/Sales is 2.79.

This P/S ratio puts it at the top of the "Industrial Metals/Minerals" industry. Other stocks includ Inco (N) with a Price/Sales of 1.6, Massey Energy (MEE) at 1.5, Consolidated Energy (CNX) at 1.5, Peabody Energy (BTU) at 1.5, and Arch Coal (ACI) at 1.4. Thus, BOOM is the most expensive of the stocks in this particular industrial group by this measurment of "value".

Other "Key Statistics" from the Yahoo site of note include the number of shares, small at 5.47 million, with only 2.60 million of them that float. Currently there are 758,000 shares out short (as of 4/8/05), representing 29.15% of the float, but only .282 trading days of volume. Thus, the short sales don't appear to be too significant.

No cash dividend and no stock split is reported on Yahoo.

How about a chart? If we take a look at the Stockcharts.com chart on BOOM:


we can see, in my simplistic technical skills, that the stock chart looks exceptionally strong as this stock marches ahead above its support line since July, 2004, when it bottomed at around $2.50/share, and has subsequently soared to its $37.64 level today.

In conclusion, this stock made a large move higher today, the last quarter results were spectacular, I do not have any idea about estimates going forward, but both revenue and earnings growth was solid in the latest report. The last five years have shown fairly steady growth in both revenue and earnings, with positive free cash flow and a solid balance sheet. Valuation is a bit steep, both with a p/e that is a bit high, and a price/sales ratio placing the stock ahead of its peers. Finally the chart looks exceptionally strong.

Going against BOOM is the very small nature of this company with the limited liquidity resulting in possible volatility. However, with good news, I have found that stocks with solid results, like TASR, end up being "rockets" with prices soaring into the stratosphere!

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob




Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 6:38 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Sunday, 22 May 2005
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of March 29, 2004





Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, and that prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website, you need to consult with a professional investment advisor, to make sure that such investments are appropriate, timely, and likely to be profitable for you!

It is getting late Sunday evening, and if you are a regular reader of this blog, you know that I should already have a weekend review up and running! However, I went out to a birthday party for a couple of my friends hitting the ripe old age of 50, heaven forbid, and am just now getting settled to write up this review.

As I like to point out, the review assumes a "buy and hold" strategy for investing. I simply look at the price a stock was posted and the current price. In actual practice, in my "Current Trading Portfolio", I do not practice a buy and hold strategy; I use a quick sale at an 8% loss, and slow partial sales as a stock appreciates. This would definitely affect the performance of the stocks reviewed, but nevertheless, it is helpful to look back and see what would really have happened if you had purchased the stocks that particular week which were listed here.

On March 29, 2004, I posted Gevity HR (GVHR) on Stock Picks at a price of $28.10. GVHR closed at $17.30 on 5/20/05 for a loss of $(10.80) or (38.4)%.

On April 21, 2005 GVHR reported 1st quarter 2005 results. Revenues increased 22.2% to $153.9 million from $125.9 million the prior year same quarter. Net income increased 28.4% to $8.2 million or $.29/diluted share vs. $6.4 million or $.24/diluted share the prior year.

On March 31, 2004, I posted Harvard Bioscience (HBIO) on Stock Picks at a price of $9.14. HBIO closed at $3.05 on 5/20/05 for a loss of $(6.09) or (66.3)%.

On May 5, 2005, HBIO reported 1st quarter 2005 results. Revenue grew a slim 1% to $22.4 million from $22.2 million last year. Net income for the quarter ended March 31, 2005, came in at $.2 million or $.01/diluted share compared with a net loss of $(51,000) or $.00/diluted share last year. This was a marginally adequate report, but I would much prefer to see a robust revenue growth alongside the improvement of earnings.

On March 31, 2004, I posted Best Buy on Stock Picks at a price of $51.65. BBY closed at $54.36 on 5/20/05, for a gain of $2.71 or 5.2%.

On April 1, 2005, Best Buy reported 4th quarter results. Revenue for the quarter ended February 26, 2005, increased 9% to $9.2 billion, compared with $8.4 billion the prior year. Same-store sales increased 2.8% a modest, but exceptable increase.









Finally, on April 2, 2004, I posted Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) on Stock Picks at a price of $37.62. SCHN closed at $23.20 on 5/20/05 for a loss of $(14.42) or (38.3)%.

On April 6, 2005 Schnitzer reported 2nd quarter 2005 results. Revenue grew 33% to $215.7 milllion from $161.6 million the prior year. Earnings came in at $36 million or $1.15/diluted share for the quarter, up almost 100% to $18.5 million or $.60/diluted share! This was a great quarter for Schnitzer Steel!

So how did I do looking at the stocks a little over a year later for that particular week on the blog? In a word, awful. There is a very important lesson on this performance. Just because a stock is listed on this blog does not mean that the stock is guaranteed to move higher! In fact, many of these stocks do move lower. Thus, the importance of being vigilant and not letting losses grow!

In fact, I had three losing stocks and only one stock with a gain on the "picked" list. The average loss on the four stocks was a significant (34.5)%!

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob





Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:37 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Friday, 20 May 2005
"Revisiting a Stock Pick" Kyphon (KYPH)

Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As I always remind you, please remember to check with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website. I am an amateur investor and cannot be responsible for any of your trading decisions!

I first posted Kyphon (KYPH) on Stock Picks on October 30, 2003, wehn it was trading at $29.15. KYPH is currently trading at $28.85, as I write, up $1.85 on 6.85% on the day. The stock is still at virtually the same level as it was in 2003 when I first wrote the stock up!


Earlier today, KYPH made the list of top % gainers on the NASDAQ, but with the NASDAQ firming up, and the price of KYPH easing a bit, the current performance, trading at $28.81, up 6.70% on the day, is not quite a strong enough move to keep it on the list! As I wrote in the previous post, since I had sold some shares of HIBB at a gain, I was looking for a new position, and a few moments ago, I purchased 200 shares of KYPH for my trading account.

Let's take a closer look at this stock. According to the Yahoo "Profile" on KYPH, Kyphon "...is a global medical device company specializing in the design, manufacture and marketing of medical devices to treat and restore spinal anatomy using minimally invasive technology. The Company's devices are used primarily by spine specialists, including orthopedic surgeons and neurosurgeons, interventional radiologists, and interventional neuroradiologists who repair spinal fracture caused by osteoporosis, trauma, cancer or benign lesions through performing minimally invasive surgery known as kyphoplasty."

My first step, after finding a potential investment "candidate" in reviewing a company is to check the latest quarter results. Very simply, I am looking for revenue and earnings growth, and if the company can exceed expectations, all the more power to it!

On April 27, 2005, KYPH reported 1st quarter 2005 results. Net sales for the quarter came in at $66.2 million, a 49% increase over the $44.4 million in net sales the same quarter the prior year. Net income came in at $6.4 million, up from $4.8 million the prior year, or on a diluted per share basis, this worked out to $.15/diluted share, up from $.11/diluted share last year.

For a 'longer-term' look at this company, I generally review the "5-Yr Restated" finances on Morningstar.com. Here we can see the beautiful ramp-up of revenue from $6.1 million in 2000 to $235.2 million in the trailing twelve months (TTM).

Earnings have been a bit more erratic, dropping from $.65/share in 2003 to $.50/share in 2004 and increasing to $.54/share in the TTM.

Free cash flow has improved from $(2) million in 2002 to $26 million in the TTM.

The balance sheet, as presented by Morningstar.com, is gorgeous, with $128.3 million in cash, easily covering both the $30.3 million in current liabilities and the smallish $4.1 million in long-term liabilities several times over. In addition, another $71.4 million in "other current assets" is reported!

What about 'valuation' questions and other measurements on this stock? For this, I like to review the Yahoo "Key Statistics" on KYPH. Some facts from this page include the fact that this is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $1.22 billion.

The trailing p/e is a bit rich at 54.03, but the stock is growing quickly enough that the forward p/e (fye 31-Dec-06) isn't as bad at 30.32. Thus, with the quick growth, the "5 Yr Expected" PEG comes at at 1.12.

The Price/Sales ratio is reported at 4.86. Again, remembering Paul Sturm's article from Smart Money on Price/Sales ratios, we need to compare that ratio to other stocks in the same industry group.

Looking at the "Medical Instruments/Supplies" group, we see that KYPH is somewhere in the middle of the pack on this parameter. Alcon (ACL) tops the group with a price/sales ratio of 7.7, next is Guidant (GDT) at 6.3, Kyphon (KYPH) at 4.9, Stryker (SYK) at 4.4, Boston Scientific (BSX) at 4.1, and Baxter (BAX) at 2.4. Thus Kyphon sits in the middle on this valuation measurement.

Other facts on the Yahoo page of interest include 42.38 million shares outstanding with 28.40 million of them that float. Of these, there are a LOT of shares out short, according to Yahoo, at 5.89 million as of 4/8/05, representing 20.74% of the float or 18.123 trading days of average volume. If we use the 3 day rule, like I do, then this is quite a significant short interest and could be a bullish factor for stock performance if there is a bit of a rush to get out!

No cash dividends and no stock dividends are reported on Yahoo.

What about the chart? Looking at a "Point & Figure" chart from Stockcharts.com:


we can see that this stock was actually trading lower in 2002 from a high of $20 in June, 2002, to a low of $6.5 in late 2002. Since that point in time, the stock traded higher, breaking through resistance at $9.50 in May, 2003, and has moved to a trading range between $20 and $30 between late, 2003 and the present time. The stock has been consolidating for over a year, and may very well be "ready" to move higher!

So what do I think? Well I liked the stock enough to buy 200 shares! Seriously, the stock made a nice move today, the last quarter was great, the past five years have seen an explosive growth in revenue with a bit of inconsistency in the earnings picture. The company is generating increasing amounts of free cash and the balance sheet is gorgeous! Valuation appears a bit rich, although the Price/Sales is right in the middle of the pack. The P/E is steep but the PEG is ok. The chart appears solid to me and does not appear overextended.

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob










Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 2:27 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
"Trading Transparency" Kyphon (KYPH)

Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website. I cannot be responsible for your trades and you really need to make sure they are appropriate, timely, and likely to be profitable for you!

Well, a little earlier today, my Hibbett Stock (HIBB) had a jump in price and I sold 32 shares of my 130 share positions as it hit and passed a 240% gain target! I now have 98 shares of HIBB in my trading portfolio and selling a portion of a position at a gain, since I was only at 22 positions, gives me "permission" to add a new position.

For a long time this morning I scanned the top % gainers and couldn't find anything. The NASDAQ has firmed a bit and an old favorite, Kyphon (KYPH) showed up in the list of top % gainers. A few moments ago I purchased 200 shares of KYPH at $29.175 and I will try to post an update on the stock right here a little later today!

Thanks again for stopping by and visiting. Please feel free to leave your comments right here on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:08 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
"Trading Transparency" HIBB

Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website!

I just wanted to keep you posted on activity in my actual trading account. A few moments ago, I sold 32 shares of Hibbett (HIBB) at $34.41/share. This was my sixth sale of shares of HIBB...as you may recall, I like to sell portions of my holding when they hit targets on gains....I sell 1/4 of my remaining position at 30%, 60%, 90%, 120%, 180%, 240%... Since this would be my sixth sale, my "target" was a gain of 240%.

HIBB was acquired on 3/6/03 with a cost basis of $9.74. At $34.41, this was a gain of $24.67/share or 253.3%. (!) My next targeted sale would be at a 300% gain (I go by 60% increments 2nd "round", then 90%, etc.) on the upside, or a sale at 120% on the downside. I will try to keep you posted.

Since I have just 22 positions, with 25 positions as my "goal", I am now eligible, by my own trading strategy to add a new position. That nickel is burning a hole in my pocket already!

If I see anything interesting and make a purchase, I shall keep you posted! Thanks again for stopping by and visiting. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:15 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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