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Sunday, 9 October 2005
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of August 2, 2004





Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

As I like to do on weekends, I try to do a retrospective review of my stock picks. These are not necessarily, and usually not, actual stocks that I hold in my trading account. However, this week, I will touch on Mentor (MNT) which is also a stock that I own.

The analysis of the performance of these stocks is based on a simple buy and hold approach. In actual practice, I sell my losing stocks quickly (triggered by an 8% loss), and sell my gaining stocks slowly and piecemeal, selling 1/4 of my holdings at various targeted gains, with a 30% gain being my first sale point. Obviously, if one employed this technique, performance would vary possibly greatly from what I report. However, for the sake of simplicity, I use the easier to calculate buy and hold approach.

On August 2, 2004, I posted DHB Industries (DHB) on Stock Picks at $17.05. DHB closed at $4.03 on 10/7/05, for a loss of $(13.02) or (76.4)%. This has to be one of my worst selections on my blog! Which again shows you that my picks are not a guarantee to anything! However, If you had owned this stock, and kept to the 8% loss limit, you still would be o.k.!

On July 28, 2005, DHB reported 2nd quarter 2005 results. Revenue increased slightly to $88.2 million compared with $86.1 million the prior year. However diluted earnings/share, was flat at $.17/share compared with $.17/share the prior year same period. The stock recently took a tumble when it announced the discontinuation of a bullet-proof vest line, when the federal government said "...vest containing Zylon might not provide officers with as much protection as they are supposed to" according to the article. Looking through the news, there are multiple lawsuits against the company pending.

On August 3, 2004, I made my only other stock pick for the week, Mentor (MNT), which I posted on Stock Picks at a price of $34.45. As I pointed out just above, I also purchased some shares of Mentor for my "Trading Portfolio". MNT closed at $51.16 on 10/7/05, for a gain of $16.71 or 48.5% since posting.

On August 2, 2005, Mentor reported 1st quarter 2006 results. Sales came in at $135.3 million, an 11% increase over the first quarter 2005 results. Earnings per share came in at $.47/share, a 27% increase over earnings in the same period the prior year. Helping the stock performance was the July 28, 2005 report that the Mentor silicone gel-filled implants were "approvable" as announced by the FDA, meaning the product was nearing final regulatory acceptance.

So how did I do with these two stocks? Well one was terrible with a (76.4)% loss, and was was great with a 48.5% gain. Averaging these two, I had an average loss of (14.0)%.

Thanks again for stopping by! I hope the upcoming weak is a bit more positive in tone. The market imho does appear to be a bit oversold. But then again, I try hard to to respond to my own fears and hopes regarding any stock or portfolio, but instead respond to the stock moves themselves! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com or just simply post them right here on the blog!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 3:23 PM CDT | Post Comment | View Comments (2) | Permalink
"Weekend Trading Portfolio Analysis" Cooper (COO)
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I had a busy weekend, and am just getting around to a bit of 'housework' here on the blog! Last week, I sold my Dell stock when it hit a sell point on the downside in the face of continued Bearish trading activity on all of the markets. Thus, I am now down to 24 positions and am in a position to add a position if I sell a portion of one of my holdings at a targeted gain. On top of this, I just pulled $5k out of my portfolio as a downpayment on a new (slightly used) car! Thus, I shall be working hard to get that margin once more under control.

One thing I don't talk about, is my cash additions/withdrawals from the account. This doesn't affect my gains but it sure can cause problems for margin! Currently, I have been adding $200/month on a regular basis. With my margin level, the account is paying about $465/month just in interest expenses! I shall need to add a bit more to the monthly payment to at least offset more of the interest, continue paying down the margin with sales (hopefully on the upside), and may yet start making payments on my new vehicle from the account which shall confound all of you as well.

But let's get back to talking about stocks, shall we? One thing I have started doing on this website is to review positions in my actual trading account, that I follow along with my "picks" on this blog. I call that account my "Trading Portfolio", and when I make a trade in there, I try to post as soon as possible for you, the reader, and call it "Trading Transparency". This review of my holdings, started about a month ago, is a weekly stock in my actual account, and with 24 positions, it will take me about six months, going alphabetically through my list, reviewing one each week!

Last week I reviewed Coach (COO) from my "Trading Portfolio". Next alphabetically is Cooper (COO).

I first purchased 200 shares of Cooper Companies (COO) at $26.98 on 2/25/03. This was actually before my first entry on this blog, which was initiated back on May 12, 2003, when I "picked" St Jude Medical. My first formal discussion of Cooper on Stock Picks was on 9/1/04 when Cooper was trading at $63.33.

COO closed on October 7, 2005, at $72.08, giving me a gain of $45.10 or 167.2% on my original shares! I have sold portions of my Cooper shares four times: 50 shares were sold 6/2/03 at $34.46, for a gain of $7.48 or 27.7% (a little shy of my goal of 30%...back in 2003 I was still refining my strategy and working on my selling discipline); another 50 shares 9/4/03 at $41.00, for a gain of $14.02, or 52.0% (again a bit shy of that 60% target for my second sale today); a third sale of 25 shares on 12/31/03 at $46.92, for a gain of $19.94 or 73.9% (again shy of my 90% third sale target today); a fourth sale of 15 shares on 7/7/04 at $60.14, for a gain of 122.9% (at my goal of 120% for my fourth sale); and a fifth sale of 15 shares at $76.13 on 1/27/05 for a gain of $49.15 or 182.2% (with my goal of 180% you can see that my discipline and stragegy in selling is getting more refined!).

Thus, I made a purchase of $5,396 of Cooper (COO) in early 2003. Since then I have sold portions of this holding five times for proceeds totalling $7,034.98, and still own 45 shares of Cooper at $72.08, for a current value of $3,243.60.

When do I sell next, since I have sold 5 times with the last sale at the 180% gain point, my next sale will be either at the 240% gain point on the upside or 3.4 x $26.98 = $91.73 or at the 90% gain point on the downside, 1.9 x $26.98 = $51.26.

Let's take another look at the Cooper stock story! According to the Yahoo "Profile" on COO, the company "...engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of healthcare products worldwide. It operates in two segments, CooperVision and CooperSurgical."

On September 7, 2005, Cooper reported 3rd quarter 2005 results. Due to the acquisition of Ocular Sciences, revenue climbed from $129 million to $222 million, Net Income jumped to $37.3 million from $24.0 million last year same quarter, and diluted earnings per share climbed to $.79/share from $.67/share the prior year same period.

Reviewing the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials, we can see the steady revenue growth from $201.2 million in 2000 to $716.6 million in the trailing twelve months (TTM).

Earnings during this period grew steadily from $1.00/share in 2000 to $2.71/share in the TTM. The company also pays a small dividend which has increased from $.04/share in 2000 to $.06/share in the TTM.

Free cash flow has also been growing steadily from $33 million in 2002, to $69 million in the TTM.

The balance sheet is strong with $18 million in cash and $420.3 million in other current assets, enough to pay off all of the current liabilities of $217.4 million, and make a dent in the long-term liabilities of $703.2 million. This long-term debt, while not excessive, was the only 'negative' on this page. Even that didn't look that bad!


What about the chart? Taking a look at the Stockcharts.com "Point and Figure" chart on COO:


This is an interesting chart, showing how the stock showed incredible strength between May, 2003, shortly after my purchase, and March, 2005, when the stock peaked at $84. At that point, weakness developed and the stock tested its support level at around $60 (the blue line), the stock held that level, and now has started moving higher once again. The stock chart looks fairly strong to me!

Anyhow, that was avery long-winded discussion. Please let me know if you think this is helpful. I like to share with you both actual holdings as well as just stocks that look attractive! I hope the rest of your weekend goes well. Please remember that I am truly an amateur and that past performance in no means guarantees future performance both for my methods, my blog, my stock holdings, my picks, and any of the ideas you may see on the internet! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them right here on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob









Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:22 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Thursday, 6 October 2005
"Trading Transparency" Dell
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.



The 'bear' is growling on Wall Street!

A few moments ago, I realized that my Dell (DELL) stock had hit a sale point on the downside. Since I have actually sold portions of my DELL twice, at approximately 30% and 60% gain points, on the downside, my target was at a 30% gain to unload the rest of my shares. The stock passed through this level and I sold my remaining 120 shares at $31.91.

These shares were originally purchased 2/14/03 at a cost basis of $25.13, so I still had a gain of $6.78/share or 27.0%. Thus, I am back to 24 positions but shall not be adding any final 25th stock until I sell a portion of one of my other 24 at a gain target. Meanwhile, I shall be paying down my margin, something you really do not want to have as a market declines, which just leverages your losses!

Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to leave them right here on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:16 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Tuesday, 4 October 2005
October 4, 2005 IRIS International (IRIS)
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

Looking through the list of top % gainers on the NASDAQ today, I came across IRIS International (IRIS) which closed at $20.97, up $1.97 or 10.37% on the day. I do not own any shares nor do I have any options on this stock.

According to the Yahoo "Profile" on IRIS, the company "...engages in the manufacture and marketing of automated in vitro diagnostics (IVD) urinalysis systems and medical devices for hospitals and clinics worldwide."

What drove the stock higher today in the face of a lower market environment was the news that the company "...entered into a five-year purchasing agreement with the Venterans Integrated Services Network VISN 16 region of the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), for an order of 23 fully automated and semi-automated urine analyzers for the agency's healthcare centers."


On July 27, 2005, IRIS reported 2nd quarter 2005 results for the quarter ended June 30, 2005. Revenue grew 51% to $15.6 million from $10.3 million in the same quarter last year. Net income climbed 259% to $1.6 million from $.4 million last year. Earnings on a fully diluted basis climbed 200% to $.09/share up from $.03/share last year.


Looking at the "5-Yr Restated" financials from Morningstar.com on IRIS, we can see fairly flat revenue just over $28 million annually between 2000-2002. However, since then revenue has climbed strongly from $31.3 million in 2003 to $53.5 million in the trailing twelve months (TTM).


Earnings were also declining from $.22/share in 2000 to a low of $(.05)/share in 2003, and have climbed subsequently to $.23/share in the TTM.

Free cash flow has been erratic but was $2 million in 2002, dropped to $(2) million in 2003, and has been $2 million in the TTM.


The balance sheet is gorgeous with $17.1 million in cash, enough to pay off both the $8.9 million in current liabilities and the $.1 million in long-term liabilities combined almost twice over. In addition, the company reports $25.5 million in other current assets according to Morningstar.


Looking at Yahoo "Key Statistics" on IRIS for some valuation numbers, we find that the market cap of this company is a small cap size of $356.95 million. The trailing p/e is rich at 88.11, but the company is growing so fast that the forward p/e (fye 31-Dec-06) is only 41.94 and the PEG (5 yr expected) is a bit over 1.0 at 1.36.


Looking at the Fidelity.com website for research, I found that IRIS is fairly richly valued based on price/sales ratios in the "Scientific/Tech Instruments" Industrial Group. Topping out the group is Garmin (GRMN) with a price/sales ratio of 8.8, followed by IRIS at 6.6, FLIR at 4.9, Agilent (A) at 2.4, Fisher Scientific (FSH) at 1.5 and Beckman Coulter (BEC) at the bottom of the list with a price/sales ratio of only 1.4.


Looking back at Yahoo for some more valuation numbers, we can see that the company has 17.02 million shares outstanding. Currently there are 1.27 million shares out short as of 9/12/05, representing 8% of the float or 11.3 trading days of volume. Using my own arbitrary 3 day cut-off of significance, this would make the 11.3 days of short interest a bullish element in this company's stock price rise as all of the short-sellers scramble to cover their pessimistic gambles.


Yahoo does not show any cash nor any stock dividend on this company.


Taking a look at a Stockcharts.com "Point & Figure" chart on IRIS, we can see that the stock price follows nicely the changing fortunes of the company as we reviewed above looking at the Morningstar report. That is, between 2000 and 2002, the company literally treaded water between a stock price of $3.75 and a low of $.75/share. In April, 2002, the company broke through resistance at around $2.75 and has traded strongly higher since!





So what do I think? Well, first of all I am partial to these small, fast-growing medical instrumentation companies. The latest quarterly report was very strong, the Morningstar.com analysis demonstrates a company that has really started growing the past few years, earnings are strong, free cash flow is positive if not spectacular, and the balance sheet is great!

On the downside, valuation is a bit rich, especially the price/sales ratio!

If I had an investment to make, I might be considering the possibility of purchasing some of these shares! But then again, since I am at 25 positions, I can just review the stock and sigh. :)

Thanks again for visiting! I hope you all have a wonderful week of trading and that the Dow and NASDAQ treat us a bit nicer than they did today! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them right here on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com. I cannot respond to all of my letters, but I try to get to as many as possible...usually writing something up right on the blog!

Bob








Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 4:27 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Monday, 3 October 2005
"Trading Transparency" QSII
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

Checking my trading portfolio this afternoon, I noticed that I had hit another targeted gain on one of my 25 positions. This stock, Quality Systems (QSII) has been no less than a stellar performer in my portfolio. I just sold 19 shares of my 77 remaining shares of this stock at $71.73/share, leaving me 58 shares left in my account. This is approximately 1/4 of my position.

QSII was acquired on 7/28/03 at a split-adjusted cost basis of $15.50/share. Thus, I had a gain of $56.23/share, or 362.8%! This was my EIGHTH partial sale of this stock. Since my goals are 30, 60, 90, 120, 180, 240, 300, and 360%, my next goal will be either 1/4 of my shares at a 450% gain (is that possible???) or unloading my shares when the stock retraces to a 180% gain level. (50% of the largest gain amount).

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:47 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
October 3, 2005 NutriSystem (NTRI)
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

Looking through the list of top % gainers on the NASDAQ today, I came across NutriSystem (NTRI), which as I write, is trading at $26.63, up $1.61 or 6.43% on the day in an otherwise 'sloppy' market. I do not own any shares nor do I have any options on this company.

According to the Yahoo "Profile" on NTRI, the company "...and its subsidiaries provide weight management and fitness products and services. The company's weight management program consists of support for dieters and a prepackaged food program."

On July 27, 2005, NTRI announced 2nd quarter 2005 results. Revenue climbed 346% to $40.9 million in the second quarter ended June 30, 2005, compared with $9.2 million the prior year same quarter. Net income climbed to $4.3 million from $.8 million last year, and on a per diluted share basis this worked out to $.12 this year, compared with $.02/share last year.

How about longer-term? Taking a look at the "5-Yr Restated" financials from Morningstar.com, we can see that revenue was actually very flat between 2000 and 2003 when it grew from $20.2 million to $22.65 million. However, since then, revenue has been climbing...first to $38 million in 2004 and now $93.9 million in the trailing twelve months (TTM).

Earnings have also been a bit erratic, improving from a loss of $(.50)/share in 2000, increasing only to $.03/share in 2004, and now to $.20/share in the TTM.

Free cash flow, which was small and fluctuating, with $3 million in 2002, dropping to $(2) million in 2003, and $2 million in 2004, has now improved to $6 million in the TTM.

The balance sheet is superb with $37.7 million reported in cash, enough to cover both the $9.3 million in current liabilities AND the $.4 million in long-term liabilities almost four times over. In addition, Morningstar reports the company with an additional $15.8 million in other current assets.

Looking at Yahoo "Key Statistics" on NTRI, we can see that this is a mid cap stock with a market capitalization of $805.98 million. The trailing p/e is huge at 123.63, but the company is just turning profitable in a big way....thus the forward p/e (fye 31-Dec-06) is estimated at 38.52. Thus, the PEG (5 yr expected) isn't that bad at 1.65.

Looking up the price/sales comparisons for NTRI in the Fidelity.com website, we find that NTRI is the "priciest" of the industrial group "Business Services". (That streams like a strange place for a diet food company....?) NTRI tops out the group with a price/sales ratio of 9.3, followed by Global Payments (GPN) at 4, Equifax (EFX) at 3.4, Cintas (CTAS) and Certegy (CEY) at 2.3, and IPAYMENT (IPMT) at 1.3.

Looking at some other numbers on Yahoo, we can see that the company has only 34.09 million shares outstanding. There were 3.35 million shares out short as of 9/12/05 representing 11.70% of the float or 7.3 days of average volume (the "Short Ratio"). Thus, using my 3 days of volume as a cut-off, this appears significant, and we may be seeing a bit of a "squeeze" on the short sellers who may be hustling to find some shares to purchase to close out their position.

No cash dividend and no stock dividend are reported on Yahoo.

What about a chart? Looking at a "Point & Figure" chart on NTRI from Stockcharts.com:


We can see the picture of an extremely volatile stock which plunged in price from $14.50 in July, 2001, bottoming at $.38/share in June, 2002, and then climbing steadily and strongly to its current level. In conjunction with knowing the current earnings picture and apparent company turn-around, this chart looks very strong to me.

So what do I think? Well, the last quarter's result was phenomenal! If the company can maitain any sort of the momentum from this rate of growth, the stock might just move higher. However, valuation is a bit rich, with a p/e over 100. However, the PEG is just slightly elevated, and again, if the company can grow its earnings ever so much, valuation will quickly fall into place. Otherwise, the rest of Morningstar looks nice for NTRI with growing earnings, free cash flow, and a healthy balance sheet. To top it off the chart looks nice as well. Now, if I only was under 24 positions, I might be nibbling on this one :(. In the meantime, I shall stay sitting on my hands so to speak and hold off any purchases.

Thanks again for stopping by and visiting. If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Have a wonderful week everyone!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:17 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
"Trading Transparency" VIVO
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

A few moments ago, checking my actual trading portfolio, I noted that Meridian Bioscience (VIVO) had hit another sale point. As you might know, I sell my gaining shares piecemeal so to speak, selling 1/4 of my remaining holdings at targets of 30, 60, 90, 120, then by 60 at 180, 240, 300, 360, and then by 90, 450, 540%....etc. ANYHOW, to make a long story short, I sold 84 shares of VIO at $21.07/share. I had 337 shares (after the recent split) and now hold 253 shares in my trading account.

These shares were acquired 4/21/05 at a split-adjusted cost basis of $11.13, giving me a realized gain on these shares of $9.94 or 89.3% (my target was 90%). This was third sale of VIVO since my purchase, having sold 100 shares 7/25/05, 75 shares on 9/1/05, and now another 84 shares.

If I were under my goal of 25 positions, I would use this sale on "good news" as a signal to add another position. However, since I am at my max, and have plenty of margin as well, I shall be using the proceeds to continue to pay off the margin balance in this account.

Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:25 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Saturday, 1 October 2005
A Reader Writes "Can you tell me a little about it (Stock clubs)?"
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I very much enjoy receiving email from all of you readers! As I have mentioned earlier, I read all of the notes I get and try to respond to as many as possible. If any of you have comments or questions, please feel free to post them right here on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Matt P. responded to my JDSU comments posted earlier on the blog with another question. Matt wrote:
Bob,
I'm quite impressed with what you wrote about JDSU, what you said
made good sense. I'm going to start using more of your analysis
techniques. I'm a little wet behind the ears when it comes to stock
investing. I haven't had much luck with it since I don't have a ton
of time to devote to doing real research. You mentioned in your blog
that you belong to a stock club. Can you tell me a little bit about
it? I'd be interested in looking into something like that.

Thanks again!

Matt
PS: I read your article after I placed my trade! Haha, looks like
your advice so far is right too! Its down about 9 cents a share from
when a bought it.
Now that is a whole new discussion!

I can tell you a little bit about my club and I will point you over to the Better Investing Website which is a good place to start in learning about stock clubs. Our club is not actually a NAIC member, but they have a great strategy for newbies in the stock club arena.

My stock club is a group of about 9 members. We have eight guys and one gal, although I would really like to see us get a bit more diverse :). I hate to use stereotypes, but I think women and men seem to overall have slightly different perspectives in stock evaluation and management.

I joined about nine years ago, and I 'bought in' with a several thousand dollar investment to become a partner in the club. We hire H&R Block to get our taxes done each year, and do this out of the assets of the club. Since the buy-in is becoming a discouragement for new members, we have made this a stock type arrangement, with individual members owning different % of the club. In this way, we can offer new members the opportunity of buying in with only $1,000 instead of the larger amound if they had to buy a full "partnership."

Each month, we sit down after work and review the current holdings, kick in another $100, which is our monthly contribution, and decide if we want to buy or sell anything. One of the members is a treasurer and another monitors our holdings with some excellent spread sheets. It helps if you have a memember with a good accounting, or computer background.

We have tried to develop a schedule of presentations. Each month a member usually (?) presents a stock and another a topic to discuss in regards to investing. We have been using "Point & Figure" charts in the club and this was my first introduction to this way of recording price movement, which I now feel is quite helpful in understanding stock charts.

Originally, we used a traditional broker to make transactions. That became quite costly, and when we realized we could get all the charts we wanted on Stockcharts.com, we switched over to Fidelity.com where we save substantially on commissions.

Let me know if that answers your question! I would visit that Better Investing website and look further into stock clubs on the web as there are many resources available.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 12:36 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Saturday, 1 October 2005 12:42 PM CDT
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of July 26, 2004





Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I hope you all are having a wonderful weekend! It is getting a bit Oktoberfest-crazy crazy this weekend.



Instead of downing a brewski, how about a little "blogski" :)?

As I like to do on weekends on the blog, is to review past stock "picks". These are the lists of picks throughout this website that I have decided fit my approach for "investable" stock market ideas. Alongside this, I have a real "trading portfolio", consisting of a maximum of 25 positions chosen from among the many "picks" I have discussed on this website. This weekend discussion is devoted to the "picks", the prior discussion was about a stock in the trading portfolio, which this week was Coach (COH).

If you would like to review the many stock picks that I have discussed on this website, you will locate them scanning through the dates along the left side of the main website. Also, to see if I have discussed a stock, simply enter the stock symbol alongside with words "Stock Picks Bob's" in the Google search engine. Usually works!

Now back to the review!

On July 27, 2004, I posted L-3 Comms Hldgs (LLL) on Stock Picks at a price of $59.24/share. L-3 closed at $79.07 on 9/30/05 for a gain of $19.83 or 33.5% since posting.

On July 26, 2005, L-3 reported 2nd quarter 2005 results. For the quarter ended June 30, 2005, sales grew 23.5% to $2.08 billion, from $1.68 billion for the same quarter last year. Net income climbed 35.5% to $119.4 million compared with net income of $88.1 million for the same quarter in the prior year. Diluted EPS grew by 26.9% to $.99/share vs. $.78/share last year. A solid quarter.

On July 28, 2004, I posted National Instruments (NATI) on Stock Picks at a price of $27.89. NATI closed at $24.64 on 9/30/05 for a loss of $(3.25) or (11.7)%.

On July 26, 2005, NATI reported 2nd quarter 2005 results. Revenue for the quarter ended June 30, 2005, came in at $141 million, an 11% increase over the same quarter last year. Net income came in at $15.0 million, up from $11.4 million last year or $.19/diluted share, up from $.14/diluted share last year.

On July 29, 2004, I posted Flowserve (FLS) on Stock Picks at $23.90. FLS closed on 9/30/05 at $36.35 for a gain of $12.45 or 52.1% since posting.

As reported yesterday, FLS is in the process of restating financial results from 2000 to 2003. Since I can't do much with that information, that gets a 'thumbs down' from me :).

So how did we do with those three stocks that week in July last year? In a word, superb. Two stocks made solid gains, and one a modest loss. The average performance for the three stocks was a gain of 24.6% in a little over a year!

Please remember that these stock picks assume a buy and hold strategy. I do not own any of these three stocks and that future performance of these stocks may well be quite different than past performance!

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com. I cannot respond to all of the emails that I receive, but you can rest assured that I read them all and that I try to answer as many as possible...usually right on the blog :).

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 12:00 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
"Weekend Trading Portfolio Analysis" Coach (COH)
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

It is hard to believe that it is the weekend already, but there you have it! About a month ago, believing it would help me to better keep track of my own actual investments and also help you understand better what I am actually purchasing, I started reviewing my actual holdings in my Trading Account. I currently have 25 positions in that account, and I have been going alphabetically down the list, reviewing the stock and reviewing my trading history. Last week reviewed CalDive (CDIS). Next alphabetically in my portfolio is Coach (COH).

Coach (COH) is one of the top performer in my entire portfolio! On February 28, 2003, I purchased 200 shares of Coach at $33.25/share. Since that time, Coach had a 2:1 split on 10/2/03, and another 2:1 split on 4/5/05. Thus, adjusting for the stock splits, my purchase of Coach was at $8.31.

As you may know if you read my blog, I have what I would have to call an idiosyncratic approach to owning stocks! I like to sell portions of my stocks slowly as they rise in price, leaving most of my "principle" intact, and sell quickly on the downside. My current strategy calls for selling 1/4 of my remaining holdings at the following sale points: 30, 60, 90, and 120%; 180, 240, 300, and 360%; 450%, 540%, etc.

I have sold shares of COH seven times, with my last sale on 6/16/05 when I sold 34 of my remaining 136 shares at a price of $33.01 representing a gain of $24.70 or 297.2% (approximately at my 300% gain goal.) Since 2/25/03, my total proceeds from my small sales of Coach have totalled $11,162.61...all from my original purchase of $6,650 worth of Coach stock!

Since I only sell 1/4 of my remaining shares at each of these targeted prices, I still own 102 shares of Coach (COH) which closed at $31.360 on 9/30/05. This represents a gain of $23.05 or 277.4% over my initial purchase price.

So when would I sell next? Well, since I have hit the 300% gain point, my next goal on the upside would be at the 360% point or $38.23 or if the stock declines, having sold shares at the 300% level, I would sell when I hit 50% of that gain going lower, that is when the stock hit the 150% gain point or $20.78, in which case I would be unloading all of my remaining shares.

Well back to the stock!

According to the Yahoo "Profile" on Coach, the company "...engages in the design and marketing of American classic accessories in the United States and worldwide. Its primary product offerings include handbags, women's and men's small leather goods, business cases, weekend and travel accessories, outerwear, and related accessories."

On August 2, 2005, Coach reported 4th quarter 2005 results. During the fourth quarter ended July 2, 2005, net sales grew 24% to $419 million. Net income increased 49% to $98 million or $.25/diluted share, up from $66 million or $.17/diluted share beating consensus of $.24/share for the quarter. Coach also went ahead and raised guidance for fiscal 2006 to sales of nearly $2.1 billion, a 22% increase over 2005. Earnings guidance was also lifted to at least $1.24, ahead of previous estimates of $1.21. All-in-all a solid report!

How about the latest Morningstar? Looking at the "5-Yr Restated" financials, we can see the still-uninterrupted growth in revenue from $.6 billion to $1.7 billion in 2005.

Earnings have increased steadily from $.24/share in 2002 to $1.00 in 2005. Free cash flow has grown smarly from $165 million in 2003 to $450 million in 2005. The balance sheet is still solid with $383.1 million showing, more than enough to pay off both the current liabilities of $265.8 million and the long-term liabilities of $48.6 million combined! In addition, COH reports $326.3 million in other current assets!

How about the chart? Looking at the Stockcharts.com "Point & Figure" chart on COH:


We can see an absolutely fabulous chart as the stock moves strongly higher. If anything, the stock price may be getting ahead of itself (?) with the stock climbing rapidly above the "support line".

What about valuation? Looking at Yahoo "Key Statistics" on Coach, we can see that the stock is a large cap stock with a market capitalization of $11.92 billion. The trailing p/e is a bit rich at 31.49, but the forward p/e (fye 02-Jul-07) is a bit better at 21.33. With the strong growth anticipated, the PEG really isn't that bad at 1.11.

Using Fidelity.com eresearch, we can see how expensive this stock really is! In fact, in the "Textile-Apparel Footwear/accessories" industrial group, Coach tops out the other companies with a price/sales ratio of 7.1. This is followed by Nike (NKE) at 1.6, Timberland (TBL) at 1.5, Wolverine (WWW) at 1.2, and Reebok (RBK) at 0.9. Quite frankly, I am a bit leary of this particular analysis on Fidelity, as all of the other companies are shoe companies (except maybe Nike), and I am not sure how useful this particular comparison is. But the stock is certainly not any screaming bargain with this price/sales ratio of over 7.0.

So what do I think? Well, COH has certainly been a great stock for me. Since I actually owned it back in early 2003, I believe my early sales were a bit more than 25% sales, leaving me a smaller position than my original purchase.

Please remember that past performance is NOT any kind of guarantee of future performance. In fact, that is exactly why I sell portions of my stocks as they appreciate!

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them right here on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob







Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:42 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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