Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Monday, 23 June 2003
June 23, 2003 Factual Data Corp. (FDCC)
O.k....I wasn't too crazy about the pineapple stock that I just posted....Del Monte Fresh fruits...I mean what is the growth potential for fresh fruits? Just kidding...but their revenue growth WASN'T as dynamic or exciting as the one I have for you now.
Factual Data Corporation (FDCC) is per Cnn.money, a provider of "a broad range of information services including business-to-business services to the mortgage lending industry. In addition to company operated offices, FDCC provides services from franchised offices."
FDCC is having a GREAT day today in a LOUSY market! They are trading at $19.18 up $1.25 or 6.97% on the day. The stock trades at a reasonable p/e of 14.63 and is a SMALL company with a market cap of $119.0 million. There are only 6.2070 million shares outstanding.
On April 24, 2003, FDCC reported, per NYTimes on the Web, that total revenue for the quarter ending March 31, 2003, increased 55.6% to $21.0 million from $13.5 million in the same period last year. Net income was $2.9 million or $.47/share compared to $1.3 million, or $.21 per share for the same period in 2002. This is OUTSTANDING performance.
Morningstar.com 5 year financials demonstrate an OUTSTANDING sequential growth from $3.5 million in 1997 to $9.9 million in 1998, $25.8 million in 1999, $31.3 million in 2000, $51.2 million in 2001, and $63 million in 2002. Extrapolating the current quarter would give us a revenue rate of $84 million in 2003.
Free cash flow, although small, has been improving nicely from $2 million in 2000 to $8 million in 2001 and $9 million in 2002.
The company is adequately solvent with $7.8 million in cash and $8.4 million in other current assets compared to $14.2 million in current liabilities. There is $8.3 million in long-term liabilities as well...but with the improving cash flow...I do not think this will be a problem imho.
I do not own any shares of this stock...but it is a formula for success....relatively good valuation with explosive revenue and earnings growth CONSISTENTLY for the past 5 years. My kind of stock....and if Dick's hits the 8% loss, I might bend my rules a bit....I know....should stick to them...but anyhow....would love to find a way to own some shares of this company!
Have a great day....and again....please feel free to drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org with your comments, criticisms...etc.! Bob
June 23, 2003 Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP)
Kind of a bearish day in the market with the Dow down 130 and the NASDAQ down 30 as I write. Medicine isn't always pleasant tasting but a little pull-back in here is just what the doctor ordered! Hopefully we will see support after a pull-back of 30-40%....then let the good times roll!
Looking at the stocks...we find Fresh Del Monte Produce on the greatest percentage gainers. This has been a steady if not exciting performer on a fundamental basis.
FDP is currently trading at $26.14 up $1.25 or 5.02% on the day. The stock is fairly cheap valuation wise with a trailing p/e of 6.58. The market cap is $1.5 billion. And they even pay a small dividend of $.10/share which was raised in the last 12 months...paid per quarter.
According to CNN.Money, "FDP produces, distributes and markets fresh produce. The Co's products are marketed throughout the world in over 50 countries under the DEL MONTE brand name."
Looking at the latest quarter, on April 29th, per the NYTimes on the web, they announced the financial results for the first quarter ending March 28, 2003: Earnings per share were $1.55/diluted share compared to $1.10 in the same period last year. Net sales rose to $643.8 million compared to $537.4 million last year. I mean THAT is a lot of pineapple!
Morningstar.com shows a consistent growth in revenue from $1.45 billion in 1997, $1.6 billion in 1998, $1.74 billion in 1999, $1.85 billion in 2000, $1.928 billion in 2001. Unfortunately no results for 2002 are listed on the website.
Free cash flow has improved from a negative $65 million in 1999, $20 billion in 2000, and $174 million in 2001.
Assets and liabilities are a little bit weighted towards the liabilities with $250 million in current liabilities reported...although there are $13 million in cash and $368.9 million in other current assets present. Long-term debt is at $396.1 million.
This stock is a steady grower with relatively cheap valuation...per the p/e....and with the free cash flow, hopefully will see some improvement in the balance sheet.
I don't own any shares of this stock....and if you read my recent blog, I don't have any cash available in my trading account to make any purchases now....but you may be interested in a little pineapple for YOUR portfolio.
Please let me know if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement for me....at bobsadviceforstocks.lycos.com.
Transparency: trading update
Market is a bit overbought and my margin is a little high! Peeled off 100 of AHMH and 50 of DRS this morning on the open. Was a wash with a small gain on DRS and a small loss on AHMH....otherwise will stay with our usual trading rules. Will be checking on those largest gainers later this morning! Bob
Sunday, 22 June 2003
June 21, 2003 How are we doing #2...
Since there aren't any markets open today, this is a nice time to review some of our past picks. Last weekend we looked at our first week of picks...Starting May 12th. Let's look at the following week:
Picks that week included Bradley Pharmaceuticals which on 5/19 was trading at $15.77. Currently, as of June 20, 2003, BDY closed at $17.00. This is a $1.23 increase or a 7.79% increase in a month.
On 5/20/03, we chose Home Depot (HD) for our list. At that time HD was trading at $31.10. Currently, at the close on 6/20/03, HD closed at $32.49, an increase of $1.39 or a 4.47% increase.
On 5/21/03, Synovis Life Technology was selected. SYNO was trading at $14.39 at that time and now one month later, on 6/20/03, is trading at $19.28 at the close or an increase of $4.89 or a 33.9% increase in the month!
Enzo Biochem (ENZ) was picked on 5/22 when it was trading at $20.40. Currently as of 6/20/03, ENZ closed at $23.70 an increase of $3.30 or a 16.2% increase in the month.
May 22nd found us selecting Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS). This sporting goods firm which recently came public was trading at $29.75 on 5/22/03. Currently, as of 6/20/03, DKS closed at $33.26. This was a $3.51 increase or an 11.8% increase on the month.
New Century Finance, NCEN, was trading at $47.02 when it was selected for our list on 5/22/03. Currently, as of 6/20/03, NCEN closed at $44.21 or a drop of $2.81 or a drop of 6.0%.
NVR is our most expensive stock on this list trading at $394.86 on 5/23/03 the date we sellected it. Currently, as of 6/20/03 NVR is at $406.50 a gain of $11.64 or a gain of 2.94%.
RRGB or Red Robin Gourmet Burger was at $17.00 when it was selected on 5/23/03. Currently, as of 6/20/03, RRGB closed at $18.93 or an increase of $1.93 or an increase of 11.4%.
Except for NCEN the rest of the stocks that we have held a month have performed nicely. Certainly, a lot of this has to do with the strong market, but at lease we can say that with this system we are participating with the rally.
Have a great rest of the weekend!
Again, feel free to email me at email@example.com with any of your questions, comments, or words of encouragement!
Saturday, 21 June 2003
June 21, 2003 Blog problems
If you are having problems getting to the older entries on the Blog...I did today....just use the Calendar along the left side of the page and click on last weeks date to get to those entries...works better than the "newer" and "older" tabs on the bottom. I hope Lycos gets this fixed soon :). Bob
Friday, 20 June 2003
June 20, 2003 Forest Laboratories (FRX)
This market is both overbought and incredibly strong. Even after the big run-up we have in the Dow, the market has gone down only yesterday and is having a difficult time letting the Bears have their way today as the Bulls are struggling to push the market right back up.
O.k. so I am better at picking stocks than market commentary? Well there is no harm trying to expand on my observations is there?
Back to business. Forest Laboratories is having a great day. No this is not some kind of wood pulp business (lol), they are another drug firm. In fact per cnn.money, FRX "develops, manufactures and sells both branded and generic forms of ethical drug products which require a physicians prescription, as well as non-prescription pharmaceutical products sold over-the-counter."
FRX is trading at $54.99 up $1.70 or 3.19% on the day. The company trades at a trailing p/e of 33.13 and has a market cap of $20.0 Billion. Not exactly a microcap stock? They do not pay a dividend.
On April 22, 2003, per the NYTimes on the web, Forest reported their earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter ending March 31, 2003. Net sales increased 42% to $621,114,000 from $436,751,000 in the prior year. Net income increased 87% (!!) to $180,737,000 from $96,553,000 for the prior year. Diluted earnings per share equaled $.48 in the current quarter as compared to $.26 in last year's fourth quarter. These are GREAT numbers, especially for a company the size of FRX.
Morningstar.com shows an equally ATTRACTIVE picture for the past 5 years: revenue was $0.5 billion in 1998, $0.6 billion in 1999, $0.9 billion in 2000, $1.2 billion in 2001, $1.6 billion in 2002, and extrapolating from the latest quarter, we get $2.4 billion at least in 2003. Very nice!
The company is also generating an equally large pile of cash: free cash flow of $161 million in 2000, $149 million in 2001, $390 million in 2002 and $560 million for the trailing twelve months. Not too shabby huh?
On TOP of this, this BEAUTIFUL company has LOADS of cash. Get this: $1.32 BILLION in cash compared to $454.7 million in current liabilities and only $1.9 million in long term debt. In addition they have $693.9 million in OTHER current assets. Boy, they are LOADED. They ought to be paying a dividend any time soon!
I don't own a share of this stock. But if I can find the cash, would LOVE to own a bushel of shares of this one. Take a look at the graphs and numbers yourself and unless I am missing something....sure is pretty!
Drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org and I will try to reply ASAP. Be sure to let me know if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement...and above all....come on back! and tell your friends!
Have a GREAT weekend everyone! Bob
Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 2:06 PM CDT
Updated: Friday, 20 June 2003 2:07 PM CDT
June 20, 2003 Laboratory Corporation of America (LH)
After yesterday, who needs a correction? You know it is good for you like a foul tasting medicine...but would rather have something a bit sweeter on the tastebuds....
Didn's see much today earlier....JCOM and MRN, and AHS are showing up. MED almost meets our criteria...but not perfect....but LH looks like a pretty nice fit. I feel like Goldilocks checking the porridge...not too hot...not too cold....JUST RIGHT!
Laboratory Corporation of America is having a nice day today...trading at $30.68 up $.92 or 3.09% on the day.
Per CNN.Money, LH is "an independent clinical laboratory company, offers a broad range of testing services used by the medical profession in the diagnosis, monitoring and treatment of diseases and other clinical states."
Last quarter was reported on April 28, 2003, and they announced that revenues, per the NYTimes on the Web, were $712.2 million and increase of 20.7% from the same period in 2002. Net income for the quarter increased to $73.9 million or $.51/share compared to $65.8 million or $.46/share in 2002.
Morningstar shows a slow but steady increase in revenue from $1.6 billion in 1998, $1.7 billion in 1999, $1.9 billion in 2000, $2.2 billion in 2001, $2.5 billion in 2002, and extrapolating from the latest quarter, we would get about $2.8 billion in 2003.
Free cash flow has been improving the last few years with a positive $191 million in 2000, $228 million in 2001, and $371 million in 2002.
Assets and liabilities are a fairly well-balanced with $56.4 million in cash and $540 million in other current assets compared to $228.8 million in current liabilities and $771.3 million in long-term liabilities. With the excellent free cash flow, imho, this shouldn't be a problem.
There are 148 million shares outstanding with a $4.6 Billion market cap. The p/e is a reasonable 16.90.
This company looks nice and steady to me. I don't own any shares but would be happy to add some if the opportunity arose. You might want to take a second look at LH.
Please drop me a line at email@example.com if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement!
Regards to all of my friends and readers.
Thursday, 19 June 2003
June 19, 2003 J2Communications (JCOM)
Hello friends. Am showing Matt, a friend of mine how this site works....interesting enough JCOM showed up today. Nice price move and it has the fundamentals behind it. JCOM was about our second pick on this site. Unfortunately I don't own a share! Bob
Wednesday, 18 June 2003
June 18, 2003 Tofutti Brands, Inc. (TOF)
O.K. so it was a SMALL correction. Down down 29 but NASDAQ up 8.76. After the HUGE run up in this rally, this is evidence of the incredible buying pressure at this time supporting this position.
Anyway, anyone have a sweet tooth for a stock? And one under $10 also!
Tofutti Brands, Inc., "develops, produces and markets non-dairy frozen desserts and other soy-based, non-dairy foods, containing no butterfat, cholesterol or lactose, yet offering the same textures and tastes as their dairy counterparts" per CNN.Money.
TOF had a very nice day. Anyone who owns some shares can reward themselves with a bowl of this soy dessert....TOF closed at $2.82 up $.22 or 8.46%.
A real inexpensive stock, and difficult to buy if you keep the 8% stop. You can see if it DROPS 1/4 point, you have hit it!
On May 13, 2003, per the NYTimes on the Web, TOF reported results: Net sales increased 22% to $4.5 million compared with net sales of $3.7 million for the thirteen weeks ended March 30, 2002. Operating income increased slightly to $458,000 from $418,000 for the comparable period in 2002.
Morningstar.com shows the past 5 years of revenue growth from $7 million in 1997, to $9 million in 1998, $12 million in 1999, $13 million in 2000, $16 million in 2001, and $17 million in the trailing twelve months. Small numbers but steady growth.
Cash flow is not recorded unfortunately, but the company has $2.7 million in cash on hand per Morningstar with $2.7 million of other current assets...with only $0.5 million of current liabilities and no long term debt.
Market cap is a tiny $14.9 Million with only 4.72 million shares outstanding, and 3.90 million of them floating.
O.K. it is not a typical presentation here, but if you would like an inexpensive stock which basically meets our criteria so you can buy LOTS of shares....well have a scoop of Tofutti!
Regards to all my friends. Bob
For transparency, I sold 50 of EXAC, and 100 of AAII, and bought 800 of LIFC. I knew I had no self-control! Regards to ALL. Bob
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