Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Thursday, 13 November 2003
November 13, 2003 Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFMI)
Hello Friends! As always PLEASE discuss ALL investment ideas you may glean from this website with your own financial advisor as I am just an amateur investor who loves to write and the ideas I post here may or may not be profitable for you and also may or may not be appropriate for you!
Anyhow, Whole Foods Markets, Inc. (WFMI) showed up on the lists of greatest percentage gainers today and it looks very interesting. I do not own any shares of Whole Foods but I confess to spending time on occasions wandering the aisles astounded at the fascinating merchandise and exotic range of food supplements and vitamins. WFMI had a great day today closing at $64.68 up $5.95 or 10.13% on the day.
According to money.cnn.com, Whole Foods "...engages in the sale of natural food and nutritional products, primarily through its 143 natural foods supermarkets (as of 4/03) and direct marketing of nutritional supplements."
As reported on NYTimes on the Web on 11/12/03, Whole Foods reported their fourth quarter results. As initially carried by PRNewswire-FirstCall, sales for the 12-week quarter increased 18% to $751 million from $638 million last year. This was driven BOTH by 10% increase in square footage AND 8.3% identical store sales growth year-over-year. These are very nice results!
Checking Morningstar.com, we find sequential revenue growth from $1.3 billion in 1998, $1.5 billion in 1999, $1.8 billion in 2000, $2.3 billion in 2001, $2.7 billion in 2002 and as just reported by the NYTimes, $3.1 billion in 2003.
Earnings/share have grown from $.82 in 1998 to $1.64 in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow has picked up from $83 million in 2000 to $161 million in the trailing twelve months.
A look at the balance sheet as reported on Morningstar.com shows $131.0 million in cash and $199.8 million in other current assets, compared to $220.7 million in current liabilities and $177.5 million in long-term liabilities.
Checking Yahoo.com for some "key statistics" we find a market cap of $3.87 Billion, trailing p/e a bit rich at 39.49, PEG ratio at 1.82, and price/sales at 1.16. There are 59.90 million shares outstanding and 58.70 million of them that float. As of 10/8/03, there were 4.12 million shares out short representing 7.3 trading days of volume. I suspect some of today's steep climb was a scramble by shorts trying to cover...but that is just a guess on my part. Will need to see if next month's short interest has increased or declined. The October figure was up from 3.56 million shares out short the prior month!
The company DOES pay a small dividend of $.60/share yielding 1.02%. In addition, the stock last split in June, 2001, when it had a 2:1 split.
This is a wonderful company both on earnings and price momentum, in my humble opinion, and on a Peter Lynch basis...I love the stores! However, it is not a bargain, as the p/e is a bit steep even when examined on a PEG basis. However, it may be a great stock to have in your portfolio at some time. Remember, please discuss any of these investment ideas with your investment advisor to see if they think it is a good investment and to make sure it is suitable for you!
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
Tuesday, 11 November 2003
November 11, 2003 Fossil, Inc. (FOSL)
Hello Friends. Market is getting ready to close and I have one more stock to share with you! As always, PLEASE discuss all of these ideas with your certified financial advisor as I am not one of those, I am an AMATEUR who loves the market...ok that's enough said. Came across Fossil, Inc. (FOSL) this afternoon. I do not own any shares not do any of my family although my kids have a couple of their watches!
According to money.cnn.com, FOSL "...designs, markets and distributes fashion watches and accessories, including sunglasses, small leather goods, belts and handbags." Currently as I write FOSL is trading at $28.42 up $1.79 or 6.72% on the day.
What drove the stock up today was an announcement of their third quarter sales and earnings today (11/11/03). As reported by NYTimes on the Web, from PRNewswire-FirstCall, FOSL reported for the thirteen week period ended October 4, 2003. Net sales increased 16.9% to $192.6 million compared to $164.8 million in 2002. Net income increased 19.2% to $16.8 million or $.34/diluted share vs $14.1 million or $.29/diluted share last year. These were great results and in fact, a record for the company.
Morningstar.com shows a steady record of revenue growth from $304.7 million in 1998, $418.8 million in 1999, $504.3 million in 2000, $545.5 million in 2001, $663.3 million in 2002 and $706.6 million in the trailing twelve months.
Earnings per share have improved from $.66/share in 1998 to $1.23 in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow while taking a dip in 2001 to ($7) million has improved from $20 million in 2000, to $51 million in the trailing twelve months.
The balance sheet, as reported on Morningstar.com, shows $132.5 million in cash, more than enough to cover BOTH the current liabilities of $84.7 million AND the long-term liabilities of $41.7 million. In addition, Morningstar reports that FOSL has an additional $220.6 million in OTHER current assets.
Looking at "key statistics" on Yahoo.com, we find that FOSL has a Market Cap of $1.33 Billion, the trailing p/e isn't too high at 23.00, and the forward p/e (up to fye January, 2005), is at 16.34. The PEG ratio isn't bad at 1.19, and the price/sales also isn't too pricey at 1.76. All-in-all not too bad a value for a growth stock.
Yahoo reports that there are 46.60 million shares outstanding with 716,000 shares out short representing 2.819 trading days as of 10/8/03. The float is only 24.7 million shares. No cash dividend is paid. The last stock dividend was a 3:2 split last year in June, 2002.
If you can't tell from this write-up, I actually LIKE FOSL. I am not THAT excited about their watches personally but my kids think they are 'hot'. Generation thing I guess. What attracts me is the reasonable valuation on a very consistent growth company. PEG ratio near one, Price/sales near 1.75, P/E itself just over 20, and a superb balance sheet. Now if I ONLY had some CASH instead of a LOAD of Margin! Oh well. Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at email@example.com!
Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 3:00 PM CST
Updated: Tuesday, 11 November 2003 3:02 PM CST
November 11, 2003 Coinstar (CSTR)
Hello Friends! Thanks for stopping by! As always, I must remind you to consult with your investment advisor before making any decisions based on anything posted on this website. The investments we discuss may or may not be appropriate for all investors.
Market does NOT have much oomph today. However, scanning the lists of greatest percentage gainers I have found a stock that while I have heard of it before, I do not own any shares of this company nor do any members of my family: Coinstar, Inc. (CSTR).
According to Money.cnn.com, CSTR "...develops, owns & operates network of automated, self-service coin counting and processing machines that provide consumers with convenient means of converting loose coins into cash." As I write, CSTR is trading at $17.18 up $1.66 or 10.70%.
On October 30, 2003, CSTR reported third quarter results for the period ended September 30, 2003. As reported on Business Wire and as posted on the internet by NYTimes on the Web, CSTR reported revenue of $48.7 million vs $42.9 million a year ago. Net income was $6.9 million or $.32/share compared to $8.8 million or $.38/share last year.
CSTR DOES explain that last year CSTR did not pay any income taxes while in the current quarter the effective income tax rate was 37%. If CSTR had had taxes in 2002, the results would have been net income of $5.5 million or $.24/diluted share. This explanation is per the company report; sounds reasonable to me!
Morningstar.com shows a nice sequential growth in revenue from $48 million in 1998, $78 million in 1999, $103 million in 2000, $129 million in 2001, and $156 million in 2002. Earnings/share have improved from ($1.58) in 1998 to $2.58 in 2002.
Free cash flow has improved from $2 million in 2000 to $28 million in 2002. Looking at the balance sheet we find $102.8 million in cash and $12.5 million in other current assets. Current liabilities stand at $89.6 million with long-term liabilities at $21.8 million.
Checking Yahoo.com for "key statistics" on CSTR, we find a trailing p/e at 6.03(!), with forward p/e at 16.00. The PEG ratio is also cheap at 0.96. Price/sales is listed at 1.92.
Currently there are 21.24 million shares outstanding with 20.80 million of them that float. There are a LOT of shares out short, acutally 4.42 million as of 10/8/03 representing 12.53 days of average trading volume. No dividend is paid.
This actually looks like a nice company with a steady growth record that is reasonably priced. I do not own any shares at this time.
Thanks for stopping by! Please be sure to email me if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement!
Monday, 10 November 2003
November 10, 2003 CollaGenex Pharmaceutical (CGPI)
Hello Friends! As always, I must remind you to consult with your own financial advisors before taking any action based on anything written here. I hope that my comments DO however, give you something to talk about with them! I do not own any shares of CollaGenex Pharmaceutical (CGPI), but it does look like an interesting selection today!
CGPI currently is trading at $10.45 up $1.19 or 12.85% on the day. According to money.cnn.com, CGPI "...is a pharmaceutical company focused on providing innovative medical therapies for the treatment of periodontitis and other pathologies characterized by the progressive degradation of the body's connective tissue."
On October 28, 2003, CGPI reported results for their fiscal third quarter ended September 30, 2003. Total revenues increased 24% to $13.9 million compared to $11.2 million last year.
Net income was $1.5 million or $.13/share compared to net income of $356,000 or $.03/share last year.
Morningstar.com shows growth in revenue from $3 million in 1998, $16 million in 1999, $24 million in 2000, $35 million in 2001, $45 million in 2002, and extrapolating the current quarter would get us over $50 million in revenue in 2003.
Earnings/share have improved from a loss of ($1.35) in 1998 to a positive $.27/share in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow has also improved recently from ($9) million in 2000, ($8) million in 2001, $4 million in 2002 and $8 million in trailing twelve months.
The balance sheet looks terrific with $11.5 million in cash per Morningstar, more than enough to cover both the current liabilities of $6.5 million and the long-term liabilities of $0.3 million combined. In addition, CGPI has $5.4 million of other current assets.
Looking at Yahoo.com, we find that shares are actually up because of a settlement of a patent dispute against West-ward Pharmaceutical Corporation. This is just ANOTHER piece of good news for this stock. Looking at "Yahoo statistics" on CGPI, we find that this is indeed a small cap stock with a market cap of $118.32 million. The trailing p/e is at 30.0 but the forward p/e (2004), is at 16.54 based on estimates. No PEG ratio noted as company just turned profitable, and Price/Sales not too bad at 2.11.
Currently there are 11.50 million shares outstanding and 7.50 million of them that float. There are 921,000 shares out short representing 3.87 days of trading. With the small float of this stock, we may be witnessing a short 'squeeze'...days short were as of 10/8/03.
This is a SMALL company that I do like a lot. If we had room in our portfolio, I might purchase some shares. You might wish to discuss this with your own investment advisor to see if it is suitable for your needs. Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to post them here or email me at firstname.lastname@example.org .
Friday, 7 November 2003
November 7, 2003 LeapFrog Enterprises, Inc. (LF)
I don't really know how this FROG has gotten away from this website for so long. Maybe because my kids are getting older and they don't play with the electronic learning games....anyhow, LeapFrog made the best percentage gainers list and deserves a spot on this site. As always, I must remind you to consult with your own investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on what I say on this website.
According to money.cnn.com, LeapFrog (LF) "...is a designer, developer, and marketer of technology-based educational products and related proprietary content, dedicated to making learning effective and engaging." Sounds like an advertisement doesn't it?
Anyway, as I write, LF is trading at $35.71 up $1.49 on the day or 4.35%. I do not own any shares of LF nor do any members of my family.
On October 21, 2003, LF reported their third quarter results for the quarter ended September 30, 2003. I picked this up on the NYTimes on the Web which utilized PRNewswire-Firstcall via COMTEX. Net sales for the third quarter were $203.9 million up 12% from the same period last year. Net income for the quarter was $33.4 million or $.55/share up 25% from net income of $26.7 million or $.50/share last year.
Looking at Morningstar.com, we find that LF has increased revenue from $31 million in 1998, $71.9 million in 1999, $160.1 million in 2000, $314.2 million in 2001, $531.8 million in 2002 and $575.3 million in the trailing twelve months.
Free cash flow has improved from ($39) million in 2000, ($49) million in 2001, $8 million in 2002 and $17 million in the trailing twelve months.
The balance sheet, as reported on Morningstar.com, looks excellent with $115.0 million in cash--more than enough to cover both the current liabilities of $59.0 million and the small $3.4 million in long-term debt. In addition LeapFrog is reported to have an additional $192.8 million in other current assets.
Looking at "key statistics" on yahoo.com, we find that LeapFrog has a Market Cap of $2.08 billion with a trailing p/e of 37.50 and a forward p/e (2004) of 23.28. The PEG ratio isn't too bad at 1.25 but the price/sales a bit steep at 3.32. There are 57.87 million shares outstanding with only 19.50 million of them that float. A full 66.31% of shares are held by insiders. Currently there are 4.40 million shares out short...which is quite significant...as of 10/8/03. This represents 7.24 days of average trading volume for these short sellers to cover.
No dividend is paid.
This is a nice picture overall for LF...however, it appears that sales may be slowing somewhat. Also, the valuation re: price/earnings and price/sales is a bit rich for my diet. The recent price move up may represent a bit of a short squeeze which may propel the stock higher...as there are apparently a ton of shares out there that need to be rebought and returned to their rightful owners (short-covering!)
Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to leave them here by clicking on the "no comments" note under each entry or send me an email at email@example.com
Thursday, 6 November 2003
"Trading Transparency" JCOM, RSTI
JCOM, a great stock, but quite volatile, hit a 9% loss this afternoon and I went ahead and sold 150 shares at $28.79. In light of the nice evaluation this morning on Rofin Sinar (what a name!), I purchased 200 of RSTI at $30.20 (100), and $30.21 (100). (We broke our trading rules AGAIN, I should always use proceeds from losses towards margin balance but...am still trying to get to that 25 position portfolio). Regards to All!
November 6, 2003 Rofin-Sinar Technologies (RSTI)
Hello Again! I like this particular stock a bit more than my prior listing. I do not own any shares of this company nor do any members of my family.
Rofin-Sinar Technologies (RSTI), according to money.cnn.com "...designs, develops, engineers, markets and manufactures laser products for cutting, welding and marking a wide range of materials." Currently, as I write, RSTI is trading at $28.87 up $2.26 or 8.49% on the day.
What sparked the price move today was a nice earnings report. As reported by the NYTimes on the Web from BUSINESS WIRE, RSTI reported today their fourth quarter and fiscal year 2003 results which ended September 30, 2003. Sales for the quarter grew 15.4% to $74.1 million from $64.2 million last year. Net income for the quarter was $4.85 million vs $2.36 million last year, a 105% increase. On a per share basis, the results were $.39/diluted share vs. $.20 last year. These are very nice results!
Looking at Morningstar.com, we find that revenue has grown steadily from 1998 when $117.6 million was reported, to $124.0 million in 1999, $171.2 million in 2000, $220.6 million in 2001, $221.9 million in 2002, and as just reported $257 million in 2003.
Earnings per share have increased from $.58/share in 1998 to $1.29 as just reported today. Free cash flow has been improving lately with $2 million reported in 2000, $4 million in 2001, $12 million in 2002 and $16 million in the trailing twelve months.
The balance sheet looks nice with $36.2 million in cash and $158.8 million in other current assets vs. $94.2 million in current liabilities and $55.3 million in long-term liabilities.
Looking at Yahoo.com for "key statistics" we find a market cap of $351.27 million, a trailing p/e of 27.29 with forward p/e of 21.29. The PEG ratio isn't bad at 1.23, and price/sales nice at 1.26. There are 11.76 million shares outstanding with 11.50 million of them that float. As on 10/8/03, only 182,000 shares are out short representing less than one trading day at a ratio of 0.871.
You know, if I WASN'T so heavily in margin, this is one I would buy today. Could be wrong, but the latest results are nice, the p/e isn't too bad, the PEG just over 1.2, and price/sales over 1.2, progressive increase in free cash flow....all of these sound to me to be a recipe for success. Remember however, I am just an amateur, so if you like this stock, go and talk it over with your own investment advisor!
Thanks for stopping by. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to write me at firstname.lastname@example.org
November 6, 2003 Aceto Corporation (ACET)
Hello Friends. Well the market is turning to the red now, so we may see a bit of a correction. I broke one of my rules yesterday, bought IGT after selling another stock for a loss. I am supposed to RAISE cash whenever we sell for a loss....well we will see if we get by on that one.
Aceto Corporation (ACET) is having a nice day today trading as I write at $17.42 up $1.25 or 7.73%. According to Money.cnn.com, Aceto "...is engaged in the marketing of fine and industrial chemicals used principally in the agricultural, color producing, pharmaceutical and surface coating industries."
As picked up from BUSINESS WIRE, and reported on NYTimes on the Web, ACET reported results today for its first quarter ended September 30, 2003. Net sales grew 5% to $72.3 million and Operating income grew 17% to $4.2 million. By the way, I do not own any shares of ACET.
Looking at Morningstar.com, we see a steady, if not rapid, growth in revenue from $170 million in 1999, to $271 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings per share have grown from $.60 to $.75 over the same period. Free cash flow has improved the last few years from $1 million in 2001 to $9 million in the trailing twelve months.
The balance sheet looks quite healthy with $21.1 million in cash and $89.4 million in other current assets vs. $39.0 million in current liabilities and no long-term liabilities.
Looking at Yahoo.com for some "key statistics", we find a trailing p/e of 18.62, a forward p/e of 14.18, no PEG ratio, and price/sales of 0.62. So not very expensive in general on a valuation scale.
Currently, there are 10.34 million shares outstanding with 10.0 million of them that float. As of 10/8/03, there are 86,000 shares out short. This is only a 0.585 trading days worth...so not much short interest. The company does pay a small dividend...yielding 1.42%. The last stock split was in 1985 when a 3:2 split was declared.
Overall, a fairly reasonable stock to invest but not one that gets me overall very interested. The growth rate is a bit slow for me. There are just too many other companies really hopping to get me focussed on this particular stock. But then again, this might be suitable for someone else!
Thanks for stopping by! As always, please check with your own financial advisor before taking any action on any of my commentary on this and related sites!
November 6, 2003 "Almost 6 months and still counting!"
Good morning everyone! Looks like Cisco might help the techs, but the NYSE isn't quite as strong today! Was thinking this morning (not a frequent past-time!), and realized I was approaching a 6 month anniversary on this website. Bob's Advice started out here on May 12, 2003, with our first post, a timid two or three liner!. I have gotten a bit verbose since then...and now can fill two or three paragraphs easily.
Anyhow (to get that second paragraph in...), on days when there aren't any stocks worth listing here (IMHO), I will try to look back at our posts six months out....see how they have done, see what their latest earnings are, etc., and see if I still think they are good ideas.
Finally, I really want all of you to check with your financial advisors before acting on any of my "ideas". I have received advice from some that say I shouldn't even write a BLOG as I am not truly qualified to suggest anything, and others who tell me that I can. In any case, I try hard to let you know WHERE I get my information, WHETHER I own shares or not, and PLEASE due your own due diligence as well before acting on anything here. Phew. Got that out of the way.
Thanks again as always for stopping by. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, as always, you can email me at email@example.com
Wednesday, 5 November 2003
"Trading Transparency" IGT
Stocks have been moving back up late in the session. A previously mentioned stock on this site is International Game Tech (IGT)...they came out with strong quarterly results and the stock was up nicely today. I bought into the strength and started a new 200 share position in my trading account. I keep working towards the 25 position portfolio!
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