Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Wednesday, 28 January 2004
January 28, 2004 Candela (CLZR)
Hello Friends! Thanks for stopping by. I have been doing a bit of housecleaning both around here and in my trading account. I have successfully sold small portions of stocks....see the preceding posts....and now have sold off my natural gas stock, Pogo Producing with a 9% loss. Looking through the lists today, I came across Candela, which has been showing up in the greatest % gainers for a couple of days.
Candela (CLZR), according to the cnn.money description
"...researches, develops, manufactures, markets and services lasers and other devices used to perform aesthetic and cosmetic procedures." CLZR is having a nice day today, trading as I write, at $26.38, up $1.91 or 7.81% on the day.
Looking at the Morningstar.com stock report
on CLZR, we find that revenue growth has been a bit erratic from $58.6 million in 1999 to $86.2 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings/share have also been erratic ranging from $.82/share in 1999, dropping to a loss of $(.21)/share in 2002 and staying at $.55/share in the latest twelve months.
Free cash flow, along with the other numbers, is positive but inconsistent, improving from $1 million in 2001, dropping to $(8) million in 2002, and back to $10 million in the trailing twelve months.
The balance sheet looks excellent with $30 million in cash reported by Morningstar.com with only $21.7 million in current liabilities and $5.1 million in long-term liabilities. In addition CLZR has $40.2 million in other current assets.
So with all of this inconsistency, why have I posted this stock? Well, like so many of our listings, CLZR reported its second quarter earnings report
yesterday after the close. The results were quite nice: for the quarter ended December 27, 2003, revenues were $23.9 million, a 33% increase from a year ago, and income from continuing operations was $2.4 million or $.22/share compared to $.8 million or $.08/share last year. For the 'icing on the cake' the company declared itself optimistic about the next two quarters and announced a 100% stock dividend (a 2:1 split). All of these were bullish for the stock.
Looking at Yahoo "key statistics" on Candela
, we find that the Market Cap is a small $287.3 million, the trailing p/e is 35.82, the PEG is at 1.21, and price/sales at 3.11. There are 10.9 million shares outstanding with 7.80 million of them that float. No dividend is paid and the last previous stock split was a 3:2 split in February, 2000.
Overall, I like this stock a lot and may indeed pick up a few shares. The growth has been erratic, but the last couple of years have been strong and the company is speaking very optimistically about future results. As always, please do your own due diligence if you decide to act on any of this information, and I strongly recommend consulting with your own investment advisor before making any purchases or sales.
Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here or email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
"Trading Transparency" PPP
Hello Friends! I did not think I would be posting another trade so soon. Even at $8/trade, Fidelity must love my account!
Pogo Producing (PPP) is having an awful day and has now hit my 8% loss limit. I sold my entire position in Pogo this morning at $42.66. Currently, as I write, PPP is trading at $42.60 down $3.40 or 7.39% on the day. I had recently, 12/4/03, purchased the 200 shares at $46.97.
Oh well, back to 24 positions. I can keep my eye out for another that fits and get back to 25!
Thanks again for stopping by. If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at email@example.com
"Trading Transparency" STJ
Hello Friends! Am working hard in this bull market to reduce my margin. STJ (St. Jude) has been having a great day today, currently trading at $70.30 up $4.91 or 7.51% on the day. With about a 21% gain on my shares, I went ahead and peeled off 30 shares at $70.11. I left 120 shares in the trading account. STJ was acquired with a 150 share purchase on 10/15/03 at $57.79. We will try to wait for about a 60% gain on this stock before making our next sale...but you know I may just jump the gun :). Thanks for stopping by.
If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, as always feel free to post them here or email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
Tuesday, 27 January 2004
January 27, 2004 Millipore (MIL)
Hello Friends! I am back at it...scanning the lists of movers and seeing if anything looks good. Millipore (MIL) made the list today on the NYSE and it appears to fit our requirements. Currently, MIL is trading, as I write, at $50.87, up $4.99 or 10.88% on the day.
According to the money.cnn.com description
, MIL "...is engaged in the development, manufacture and sale of products that are based on separations technology and that are used for the analysis, identification, monitoring and purification of liquids and gasses." By the way, I do not own any shares of this issue.
The stock move, like so many on our list, was caused by a favorable fourth quarter earnings report
. MIL reported yesterday, after the close of trading, that their fourth quarter came in at $.53/share (after removal of adjustments) exceeding earnings estimates of $.48 and better than the $.41/share reported last year. During the quarter, sales rose 16% to $215.8 million from $185.9 million last year.
Reviewing the Morningstar.com report on Millipore
, you will find that revenue has grown nicely from $522 million in 1998, $566 million in 1999, $600 million in 2000, $657 million in 2001, $704 million in 2002 and $745 million in the trailing twelve months. (Extrapolating the current quarter gets us over $850 million/year!).
Earnings/share have increased from $.22/share in an erratic fashion, to $1.70 in the trailing twelve months. The stock WAS paying a dividend at least through 2001, but no dividend reported on Morningstar since that time.
Free cash flow, also slightly erratic, was $49 million in 2000, down to $(10) million in 2001, back to $51 million in trailing twelve months. Much of this variance is due to the increasing capital spending and "Operating cash flow" has actually been improving fairly steadily.
The balance sheet, while not as exciting as some, is still well-balanced with $120.9 million in cash, almost enough to cover the entire current liabilities of $137.7 million. The company also has an additional $321.0 million in other current assets to help cover the long-term liabilities of $359.5 million.
The other place I like to check to get a sense of 'value' for a company is Yahoo key statistics
in this case for MIL. There, you will see that the market cap is a large $2.46 billion with a trailing p/e not too bad ad 24.50, and a PEG of 1.61 and price/sales at 2.91.
There are 48.81 million shares outstanding with 48.30 million of them that float. Currently there are 1.13 million shares out short (as of 1/8/04) representing 2.34% of the float or 4.593 trading tdays. No dividend is currently paid and the last stock split was a 2:1 split on July 24, 1995.
Overall, this is an attractive stock with a p/e just over 20, and nice numbers. A bit calmer than some of our issues, this might be a nice addition to someone's portfolio! As for me, you know the old story, hang in there at 25 positions, and pay, pay, pay down the margin!
If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here on the website or email me at email@example.com As always, remember to do your due diligence before investing in anything, and consult with your investment advisor!
Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:49 PM CST
Updated: Tuesday, 27 January 2004 1:26 PM CST
"Trading Transparency" DIGE
Hello Friends! Thanks for stopping by. Staying on top of the trading portfolio, and working hard to get that margin level down, I realized that my shares in Digene (DIGE) had appreciated a little over 25% today. Closing in on the 30% target, I went ahead and sold 30 shares today at $47.61 leaving 120 shares in the portfolio. I had purchased 150 shares just a little over a month ago at a cost of $38.07 on 12/17/03.
Just trying to keep you posted...the trading portfolio is holding up fairly well today in the midst of the market correction.
Monday, 26 January 2004
"Trading Transparency" AAII
Hello Friends! Well the market is still flying. With AAII up 111% from my purchase price I went ahead and sold my fourth portion of stocks just before the close at $29.22. I sold 30 shares of 150 leaving 120 shares in the trading account. Theoretically, after four sales, per our method, I should wait until the investment is up about 180% before making the next sale of a portion! The 150 shares in the account were purchased on 5/15/03, with a cost basis of $13.63/share.
Thanks for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here or email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
"Trading Transparency" KNSY, SYD
Hello Friends! With the market up strong again today, and my margin acct still pretty in the red (at about 40% equity), I took advantage of the rally to make initial sales in Kensey Nash (KNSY), and Sybron Dental (SYD). I sold 25% of my position of KNSY (100 shares) at $27.613, for a little over a 20% gain. I sold 50 shares of SYD at $31.47, also at a bit over a 20% gain.
KNSY was acquired on 12/3/03, with 400 shares purchased at a cost basis of $22.52 in my trading account.
SYD was acquired on 11/18/03, with 200 shares purchased with a cost basis of $25.84/share.
Thanks again for stopping by! I am still at my 25 position portfolio and will use proceeds to continue to pay down my margin balance!
January 26, 2004 Lexmark International (LXK)
Hello Friends! It is nice to be posting again on this website. I am glad you stopped by and welcome your comments on this site! You can leave them right here or email me at email@example.com and I will try to get right back to you! As always, it is up to you to do your own due diligence and use your own investment advisor for final decisions on stocks found on this website!
I came across Lexmark (LXK) today while scanning the lists of greatest movers. I do not own any of these shares nor do I have room at this time in my trading portfolio for any new positions...am up to 25! Looking at the money.cnn.com profile
for the company, we find that Lexmark "...develops, manufactures and supplies printing solutions and products, including laser and inkjet printers and associated supplies for the office and home markets." As I recall, Lexmark is the old IBM typewriter company that morphed into a printing company. Do you remember those old daisy-wheel typewriters (that you still can buy) or those type-ball devices? Amazing what passes as nostalgia these days!
As I write, LXK is trading at $83.58/share, up $4.74 or 6.01% on the day.
What pushed Lexmark higher today was the fourth quarter earnings report
which showed that revenue rose to $1.37 billion for the quarter from $1.21 billion last year, and net income rose to $138.8 million or $1.05/share from $116.3 million or $.90/share last year.
Looking at the Morningstar 5-yr results
on Lexmark, we can see that revenue has grown steadily from $2.9 billion in 1998 to $3.4 billion in 1999, $3.8 billion in 2000, $4.1 billion in 2001, $4.4 billion in 2002 and $4.6 billion in the trailing twelve months.
Earnings have been a little less consistent but have grown from $1.70 in 1998 to $3.19 in trailing twelve months.
Free cash flow, while also a bit erratic, was $704 million in 2002, and $667 million in the trailing twelve months...so this company is spinning off a lot of free cash!
The company is very solvent, in my opinion, with $959.7 million in cash and $1.2 billion in other current assets, vs. $1.1 billion in current liabilities and only $637 million in long-term liabilities (did I say only $600 million?).
Looking at Yahoo "key statistics"
, we can see that this is a Large cap company with a market cap of $10.74 billion. The trailing p/e isn't too bad at 26.21 and going forward for the end of this year we have a forward p/e of 22.02. However the PEG ratio is at 2.05...so the company is still fairly richly priced, with price/sales of 2.21.
There are 128.48 million shares outstanding with 127.20 million of them that float. Currently there are 4.16 million shares out short representing 4.154 trading days as of 12/8/03. No dividend is paid. The last stock split reported on Yahoo was on 6/11/99.
Overall this is an interesting if not cheap selection. If you like a larger cap growth stock, Lexmark might be for you. In my case, I have lots of margin (!), and am at my goal of 25 positions in my trading portfolio. Which, by the way, I just updated yesterday....and you can get there by linking to the main Bob's Advice for Stocks website
and clicking on the "Current Trading Portfolio and Stock Picks 2003" link along the left margin of the page!
Thanks again for stopping by!
Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 12:22 PM CST
Updated: Monday, 26 January 2004 12:27 PM CST
Sunday, 25 January 2004
"Seven Months Ago" A longer term view examining the week of 6/30/03
Hello Friends! I am a bit behind here and am playing catch-up....I have the website, prices, and trading portfolio updated if you link to the main site...it is a bit of a task and I need to do that at least once/month! Should be doing a six month review but you know how that goes...now we are seven months out...so let's take a look at the picks from then. As always, I would like to encourage you to use your own due diligence before making any stock picks based on information on this website and please consult with your investment advisors!
I made five selections during the week of June 30, 2003. On June 30, 2003, I posted TransMontaigne (TMG)
at $6.48. TMG closed 1/23/04 at $6.90 for a gain of $.42 or 6.5%. On November 14, 2003, TMG announced results for the three months ended September 30, 2003. This was reported on Yahoo
and showed that revenue increased nicely to $2.55 billion from $1.74 billion the prior year. On a per share basis this was $.03/share vs a loss of $(0.01)/share the prior year. It appears this stock is on track.
The second stock posted that week
was ChoicePoint (CPS). CPS was selected on 7/1/03 at $36.14. CPS closed on 1/23/04 at $37.60 for a gain of $1.46 or 4.0%. On January 22, 2004, ChoicePoint reported fourth quarter results
which included a revenue of $200.0 million, an increase of 5% over the prior year same quarter results, and earnings per share, excluding a non-recurring charge, was $.35 compared to $.35 the prior year. In my humble opinion, this is no longer an exciting growth picture...at least in the latest quarter....and while I would not rush to sell, I would not be rushing to buy this issue either.
The third selection that was posted was Digital River
which was posted on 7/2/03 at $21.69. DRIV closed on 1/23/04 at $25.85 for a gain of $2.16 or 10.0%. DRIV posted their latest "10-Q"
on November 13, 2003, and reported that revenue grew from $18.87 million in 2002 to $26.75 million in the same quarter ended September 30th in 2003. This company appears to be on track!
The fourth selection that was Metrologic Instruments that was posted on Bob's Advice
on 7/2/03 at $35.60. MTLG split 2:1 on 10/31/03, making our effective stock price at $17.80. MTLG closed 1/23/04 at $29.67 for a gain of $11.87 or 66.7%. On October 23, 2003, MTLG released third quarter results
which showed sales growing 17% to $32.6 million and net income for the quarter at $.28/share vs $.03/share the prior year. The company appears to be on track for strong growth!
The final stock for the week was Mid Atlantic Medical Services (MMD) which was posted on Bob's Advice
on July 2, 2003, at $55.56. MME closed on 1/23/04 at $66.78 for a gain of $11.22 or 20.2%. MME reported their third quarter earnings results
on 11/6/03. Net income was $46 million or $1.10/share vs $22 million or $.54/share the prior year for the quarter. The company appears to be doing just fine!
Summarizing, we posted five stocks with an average gain of 21.48%. Now most of the gain was in MTLG, and MME....but the other stocks had small but positive gains. We must realize, that this fine performance was during a period of terrific market performance...but still...what the heck it was pretty good!
Thanks again for stopping by! I think I am just about caught up with my housekeeping around here! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here on the website or you can email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
Friday, 23 January 2004
"Trading Transparency" SBUX, EXPO
Hello Friends! I am not really finding any new stocks to my liking today....and in fact not much this week! This is the first week since last week....which is a different story....that I haven't posted any new picks. Maybe I am just getting more selective? Several stocks look interesting, but each time I review them there is something wrong. Oh well...
Anyway, with my positions up to 25 and my margin balance way out of control, I pushed my sale points a little today and sold 15 shares of SBUX (out of 75) at $35.70 and sold 50 shares of EXPO (out of 200) at $24.52.
Starbucks was initially acquired on 1/24/03, almost exactly one year ago at a cost of $22.81. Thus we had a gain of 56.5% (just about at our 60% sale point) and having just 75 shares, I just wanted to peel off 15. (With Fidelity's $8/transaction trading this wasn't a real problem).
This was the first sale from our 200 share purchase of Exponent, Inc. (EXPO) which was acquired on 10/21/03 at $19.77. We thus had a gain of $4.75 or 24%...not quite at our 30% sale goal...but with all of our margin...not too bad!
Anyway, just keeping you posted on our continued trading activity in my account. Regards to all of my friends!
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