More blogs about Stock Picks Bob's Advice.



Invest like me - only at Covestor.com

Invest like me - only at Covestor.com


Robert Freedland Individual Investor



Business Blog Top Sites Add to Technorati Favorites Try PicoSearch to locate Previous Entries
PicoSearch
Seeking Alpha Certified
newsflashr network



follow me on Twitter

BlogBurst.com
Great Rates, No Banks. Prosper.

Blog Carnival Index - browse the archives

Rate this Blog at Blogged

BlogRankers.com



Blog Directory for Wisconsin
moolahblog
Blog Tools
Edit your Blog
Build a Blog
RSS Feed
View Profile
27 Aug, 18 > 2 Sep, 18
18 Sep, 17 > 24 Sep, 17
2 Jan, 17 > 8 Jan, 17
6 Jul, 15 > 12 Jul, 15
5 Jan, 15 > 11 Jan, 15
10 Nov, 14 > 16 Nov, 14
30 Jun, 14 > 6 Jul, 14
5 May, 14 > 11 May, 14
24 Mar, 14 > 30 Mar, 14
20 Jan, 14 > 26 Jan, 14
6 Jan, 14 > 12 Jan, 14
23 Dec, 13 > 29 Dec, 13
16 Dec, 13 > 22 Dec, 13
9 Sep, 13 > 15 Sep, 13
24 Jun, 13 > 30 Jun, 13
17 Jun, 13 > 23 Jun, 13
10 Jun, 13 > 16 Jun, 13
1 Apr, 13 > 7 Apr, 13
25 Mar, 13 > 31 Mar, 13
18 Mar, 13 > 24 Mar, 13
31 Dec, 12 > 6 Jan, 13
17 Sep, 12 > 23 Sep, 12
30 Apr, 12 > 6 May, 12
16 Apr, 12 > 22 Apr, 12
9 Apr, 12 > 15 Apr, 12
2 Apr, 12 > 8 Apr, 12
26 Mar, 12 > 1 Apr, 12
19 Mar, 12 > 25 Mar, 12
23 Jan, 12 > 29 Jan, 12
9 Jan, 12 > 15 Jan, 12
26 Dec, 11 > 1 Jan, 12
21 Nov, 11 > 27 Nov, 11
14 Nov, 11 > 20 Nov, 11
10 Oct, 11 > 16 Oct, 11
3 Oct, 11 > 9 Oct, 11
8 Aug, 11 > 14 Aug, 11
1 Aug, 11 > 7 Aug, 11
18 Jul, 11 > 24 Jul, 11
27 Jun, 11 > 3 Jul, 11
13 Jun, 11 > 19 Jun, 11
6 Jun, 11 > 12 Jun, 11
23 May, 11 > 29 May, 11
16 May, 11 > 22 May, 11
24 Jan, 11 > 30 Jan, 11
27 Dec, 10 > 2 Jan, 11
20 Dec, 10 > 26 Dec, 10
8 Nov, 10 > 14 Nov, 10
11 Oct, 10 > 17 Oct, 10
30 Aug, 10 > 5 Sep, 10
16 Aug, 10 > 22 Aug, 10
9 Aug, 10 > 15 Aug, 10
26 Jul, 10 > 1 Aug, 10
19 Jul, 10 > 25 Jul, 10
28 Jun, 10 > 4 Jul, 10
14 Jun, 10 > 20 Jun, 10
24 May, 10 > 30 May, 10
10 May, 10 > 16 May, 10
3 May, 10 > 9 May, 10
26 Apr, 10 > 2 May, 10
19 Apr, 10 > 25 Apr, 10
12 Apr, 10 > 18 Apr, 10
5 Apr, 10 > 11 Apr, 10
29 Mar, 10 > 4 Apr, 10
8 Mar, 10 > 14 Mar, 10
8 Feb, 10 > 14 Feb, 10
1 Feb, 10 > 7 Feb, 10
11 Jan, 10 > 17 Jan, 10
28 Dec, 09 > 3 Jan, 10
21 Dec, 09 > 27 Dec, 09
30 Nov, 09 > 6 Dec, 09
9 Nov, 09 > 15 Nov, 09
19 Oct, 09 > 25 Oct, 09
5 Oct, 09 > 11 Oct, 09
21 Sep, 09 > 27 Sep, 09
7 Sep, 09 > 13 Sep, 09
24 Aug, 09 > 30 Aug, 09
10 Aug, 09 > 16 Aug, 09
3 Aug, 09 > 9 Aug, 09
27 Jul, 09 > 2 Aug, 09
15 Jun, 09 > 21 Jun, 09
25 May, 09 > 31 May, 09
18 May, 09 > 24 May, 09
11 May, 09 > 17 May, 09
4 May, 09 > 10 May, 09
27 Apr, 09 > 3 May, 09
13 Apr, 09 > 19 Apr, 09
6 Apr, 09 > 12 Apr, 09
23 Mar, 09 > 29 Mar, 09
16 Mar, 09 > 22 Mar, 09
9 Mar, 09 > 15 Mar, 09
2 Mar, 09 > 8 Mar, 09
23 Feb, 09 > 1 Mar, 09
16 Feb, 09 > 22 Feb, 09
9 Feb, 09 > 15 Feb, 09
2 Feb, 09 > 8 Feb, 09
26 Jan, 09 > 1 Feb, 09
19 Jan, 09 > 25 Jan, 09
12 Jan, 09 > 18 Jan, 09
5 Jan, 09 > 11 Jan, 09
29 Dec, 08 > 4 Jan, 09
15 Dec, 08 > 21 Dec, 08
8 Dec, 08 > 14 Dec, 08
1 Dec, 08 > 7 Dec, 08
17 Nov, 08 > 23 Nov, 08
10 Nov, 08 > 16 Nov, 08
3 Nov, 08 > 9 Nov, 08
27 Oct, 08 > 2 Nov, 08
20 Oct, 08 > 26 Oct, 08
13 Oct, 08 > 19 Oct, 08
6 Oct, 08 > 12 Oct, 08
29 Sep, 08 > 5 Oct, 08
22 Sep, 08 > 28 Sep, 08
15 Sep, 08 > 21 Sep, 08
8 Sep, 08 > 14 Sep, 08
1 Sep, 08 > 7 Sep, 08
18 Aug, 08 > 24 Aug, 08
4 Aug, 08 > 10 Aug, 08
28 Jul, 08 > 3 Aug, 08
21 Jul, 08 > 27 Jul, 08
14 Jul, 08 > 20 Jul, 08
7 Jul, 08 > 13 Jul, 08
30 Jun, 08 > 6 Jul, 08
23 Jun, 08 > 29 Jun, 08
9 Jun, 08 > 15 Jun, 08
2 Jun, 08 > 8 Jun, 08
26 May, 08 > 1 Jun, 08
19 May, 08 > 25 May, 08
12 May, 08 > 18 May, 08
5 May, 08 > 11 May, 08
28 Apr, 08 > 4 May, 08
21 Apr, 08 > 27 Apr, 08
14 Apr, 08 > 20 Apr, 08
7 Apr, 08 > 13 Apr, 08
31 Mar, 08 > 6 Apr, 08
24 Mar, 08 > 30 Mar, 08
17 Mar, 08 > 23 Mar, 08
10 Mar, 08 > 16 Mar, 08
3 Mar, 08 > 9 Mar, 08
25 Feb, 08 > 2 Mar, 08
18 Feb, 08 > 24 Feb, 08
11 Feb, 08 > 17 Feb, 08
4 Feb, 08 > 10 Feb, 08
28 Jan, 08 > 3 Feb, 08
21 Jan, 08 > 27 Jan, 08
14 Jan, 08 > 20 Jan, 08
7 Jan, 08 > 13 Jan, 08
31 Dec, 07 > 6 Jan, 08
24 Dec, 07 > 30 Dec, 07
17 Dec, 07 > 23 Dec, 07
10 Dec, 07 > 16 Dec, 07
3 Dec, 07 > 9 Dec, 07
26 Nov, 07 > 2 Dec, 07
19 Nov, 07 > 25 Nov, 07
12 Nov, 07 > 18 Nov, 07
5 Nov, 07 > 11 Nov, 07
29 Oct, 07 > 4 Nov, 07
22 Oct, 07 > 28 Oct, 07
15 Oct, 07 > 21 Oct, 07
8 Oct, 07 > 14 Oct, 07
1 Oct, 07 > 7 Oct, 07
24 Sep, 07 > 30 Sep, 07
17 Sep, 07 > 23 Sep, 07
10 Sep, 07 > 16 Sep, 07
3 Sep, 07 > 9 Sep, 07
27 Aug, 07 > 2 Sep, 07
20 Aug, 07 > 26 Aug, 07
13 Aug, 07 > 19 Aug, 07
6 Aug, 07 > 12 Aug, 07
30 Jul, 07 > 5 Aug, 07
23 Jul, 07 > 29 Jul, 07
16 Jul, 07 > 22 Jul, 07
9 Jul, 07 > 15 Jul, 07
2 Jul, 07 > 8 Jul, 07
25 Jun, 07 > 1 Jul, 07
18 Jun, 07 > 24 Jun, 07
11 Jun, 07 > 17 Jun, 07
4 Jun, 07 > 10 Jun, 07
28 May, 07 > 3 Jun, 07
21 May, 07 > 27 May, 07
14 May, 07 > 20 May, 07
7 May, 07 > 13 May, 07
30 Apr, 07 > 6 May, 07
23 Apr, 07 > 29 Apr, 07
16 Apr, 07 > 22 Apr, 07
9 Apr, 07 > 15 Apr, 07
2 Apr, 07 > 8 Apr, 07
26 Mar, 07 > 1 Apr, 07
19 Mar, 07 > 25 Mar, 07
12 Mar, 07 > 18 Mar, 07
5 Mar, 07 > 11 Mar, 07
26 Feb, 07 > 4 Mar, 07
19 Feb, 07 > 25 Feb, 07
12 Feb, 07 > 18 Feb, 07
5 Feb, 07 > 11 Feb, 07
29 Jan, 07 > 4 Feb, 07
22 Jan, 07 > 28 Jan, 07
15 Jan, 07 > 21 Jan, 07
8 Jan, 07 > 14 Jan, 07
1 Jan, 07 > 7 Jan, 07
25 Dec, 06 > 31 Dec, 06
18 Dec, 06 > 24 Dec, 06
11 Dec, 06 > 17 Dec, 06
4 Dec, 06 > 10 Dec, 06
27 Nov, 06 > 3 Dec, 06
20 Nov, 06 > 26 Nov, 06
13 Nov, 06 > 19 Nov, 06
6 Nov, 06 > 12 Nov, 06
30 Oct, 06 > 5 Nov, 06
23 Oct, 06 > 29 Oct, 06
16 Oct, 06 > 22 Oct, 06
9 Oct, 06 > 15 Oct, 06
2 Oct, 06 > 8 Oct, 06
25 Sep, 06 > 1 Oct, 06
18 Sep, 06 > 24 Sep, 06
11 Sep, 06 > 17 Sep, 06
4 Sep, 06 > 10 Sep, 06
28 Aug, 06 > 3 Sep, 06
21 Aug, 06 > 27 Aug, 06
14 Aug, 06 > 20 Aug, 06
7 Aug, 06 > 13 Aug, 06
31 Jul, 06 > 6 Aug, 06
24 Jul, 06 > 30 Jul, 06
17 Jul, 06 > 23 Jul, 06
10 Jul, 06 > 16 Jul, 06
3 Jul, 06 > 9 Jul, 06
26 Jun, 06 > 2 Jul, 06
19 Jun, 06 > 25 Jun, 06
12 Jun, 06 > 18 Jun, 06
5 Jun, 06 > 11 Jun, 06
29 May, 06 > 4 Jun, 06
22 May, 06 > 28 May, 06
15 May, 06 > 21 May, 06
8 May, 06 > 14 May, 06
1 May, 06 > 7 May, 06
24 Apr, 06 > 30 Apr, 06
17 Apr, 06 > 23 Apr, 06
10 Apr, 06 > 16 Apr, 06
3 Apr, 06 > 9 Apr, 06
27 Mar, 06 > 2 Apr, 06
20 Mar, 06 > 26 Mar, 06
13 Mar, 06 > 19 Mar, 06
6 Mar, 06 > 12 Mar, 06
27 Feb, 06 > 5 Mar, 06
20 Feb, 06 > 26 Feb, 06
13 Feb, 06 > 19 Feb, 06
6 Feb, 06 > 12 Feb, 06
30 Jan, 06 > 5 Feb, 06
23 Jan, 06 > 29 Jan, 06
16 Jan, 06 > 22 Jan, 06
9 Jan, 06 > 15 Jan, 06
2 Jan, 06 > 8 Jan, 06
26 Dec, 05 > 1 Jan, 06
19 Dec, 05 > 25 Dec, 05
12 Dec, 05 > 18 Dec, 05
5 Dec, 05 > 11 Dec, 05
28 Nov, 05 > 4 Dec, 05
21 Nov, 05 > 27 Nov, 05
14 Nov, 05 > 20 Nov, 05
7 Nov, 05 > 13 Nov, 05
31 Oct, 05 > 6 Nov, 05
24 Oct, 05 > 30 Oct, 05
17 Oct, 05 > 23 Oct, 05
10 Oct, 05 > 16 Oct, 05
3 Oct, 05 > 9 Oct, 05
26 Sep, 05 > 2 Oct, 05
19 Sep, 05 > 25 Sep, 05
12 Sep, 05 > 18 Sep, 05
5 Sep, 05 > 11 Sep, 05
29 Aug, 05 > 4 Sep, 05
22 Aug, 05 > 28 Aug, 05
15 Aug, 05 > 21 Aug, 05
8 Aug, 05 > 14 Aug, 05
1 Aug, 05 > 7 Aug, 05
25 Jul, 05 > 31 Jul, 05
18 Jul, 05 > 24 Jul, 05
11 Jul, 05 > 17 Jul, 05
4 Jul, 05 > 10 Jul, 05
27 Jun, 05 > 3 Jul, 05
20 Jun, 05 > 26 Jun, 05
13 Jun, 05 > 19 Jun, 05
6 Jun, 05 > 12 Jun, 05
30 May, 05 > 5 Jun, 05
23 May, 05 > 29 May, 05
16 May, 05 > 22 May, 05
9 May, 05 > 15 May, 05
2 May, 05 > 8 May, 05
25 Apr, 05 > 1 May, 05
18 Apr, 05 > 24 Apr, 05
11 Apr, 05 > 17 Apr, 05
4 Apr, 05 > 10 Apr, 05
28 Mar, 05 > 3 Apr, 05
21 Mar, 05 > 27 Mar, 05
14 Mar, 05 > 20 Mar, 05
7 Mar, 05 > 13 Mar, 05
28 Feb, 05 > 6 Mar, 05
21 Feb, 05 > 27 Feb, 05
14 Feb, 05 > 20 Feb, 05
7 Feb, 05 > 13 Feb, 05
31 Jan, 05 > 6 Feb, 05
24 Jan, 05 > 30 Jan, 05
17 Jan, 05 > 23 Jan, 05
10 Jan, 05 > 16 Jan, 05
3 Jan, 05 > 9 Jan, 05
27 Dec, 04 > 2 Jan, 05
20 Dec, 04 > 26 Dec, 04
13 Dec, 04 > 19 Dec, 04
6 Dec, 04 > 12 Dec, 04
29 Nov, 04 > 5 Dec, 04
22 Nov, 04 > 28 Nov, 04
15 Nov, 04 > 21 Nov, 04
8 Nov, 04 > 14 Nov, 04
1 Nov, 04 > 7 Nov, 04
25 Oct, 04 > 31 Oct, 04
18 Oct, 04 > 24 Oct, 04
11 Oct, 04 > 17 Oct, 04
4 Oct, 04 > 10 Oct, 04
27 Sep, 04 > 3 Oct, 04
20 Sep, 04 > 26 Sep, 04
13 Sep, 04 > 19 Sep, 04
6 Sep, 04 > 12 Sep, 04
30 Aug, 04 > 5 Sep, 04
23 Aug, 04 > 29 Aug, 04
16 Aug, 04 > 22 Aug, 04
9 Aug, 04 > 15 Aug, 04
2 Aug, 04 > 8 Aug, 04
26 Jul, 04 > 1 Aug, 04
19 Jul, 04 > 25 Jul, 04
12 Jul, 04 > 18 Jul, 04
5 Jul, 04 > 11 Jul, 04
28 Jun, 04 > 4 Jul, 04
21 Jun, 04 > 27 Jun, 04
14 Jun, 04 > 20 Jun, 04
7 Jun, 04 > 13 Jun, 04
31 May, 04 > 6 Jun, 04
24 May, 04 > 30 May, 04
17 May, 04 > 23 May, 04
10 May, 04 > 16 May, 04
3 May, 04 > 9 May, 04
26 Apr, 04 > 2 May, 04
19 Apr, 04 > 25 Apr, 04
12 Apr, 04 > 18 Apr, 04
5 Apr, 04 > 11 Apr, 04
29 Mar, 04 > 4 Apr, 04
22 Mar, 04 > 28 Mar, 04
15 Mar, 04 > 21 Mar, 04
8 Mar, 04 > 14 Mar, 04
1 Mar, 04 > 7 Mar, 04
23 Feb, 04 > 29 Feb, 04
16 Feb, 04 > 22 Feb, 04
9 Feb, 04 > 15 Feb, 04
2 Feb, 04 > 8 Feb, 04
26 Jan, 04 > 1 Feb, 04
19 Jan, 04 > 25 Jan, 04
12 Jan, 04 > 18 Jan, 04
5 Jan, 04 > 11 Jan, 04
29 Dec, 03 > 4 Jan, 04
22 Dec, 03 > 28 Dec, 03
15 Dec, 03 > 21 Dec, 03
8 Dec, 03 > 14 Dec, 03
1 Dec, 03 > 7 Dec, 03
24 Nov, 03 > 30 Nov, 03
17 Nov, 03 > 23 Nov, 03
10 Nov, 03 > 16 Nov, 03
3 Nov, 03 > 9 Nov, 03
27 Oct, 03 > 2 Nov, 03
20 Oct, 03 > 26 Oct, 03
13 Oct, 03 > 19 Oct, 03
6 Oct, 03 > 12 Oct, 03
29 Sep, 03 > 5 Oct, 03
22 Sep, 03 > 28 Sep, 03
15 Sep, 03 > 21 Sep, 03
8 Sep, 03 > 14 Sep, 03
1 Sep, 03 > 7 Sep, 03
25 Aug, 03 > 31 Aug, 03
18 Aug, 03 > 24 Aug, 03
11 Aug, 03 > 17 Aug, 03
4 Aug, 03 > 10 Aug, 03
28 Jul, 03 > 3 Aug, 03
21 Jul, 03 > 27 Jul, 03
14 Jul, 03 > 20 Jul, 03
7 Jul, 03 > 13 Jul, 03
30 Jun, 03 > 6 Jul, 03
23 Jun, 03 > 29 Jun, 03
16 Jun, 03 > 22 Jun, 03
9 Jun, 03 > 15 Jun, 03
2 Jun, 03 > 8 Jun, 03
26 May, 03 > 1 Jun, 03
19 May, 03 > 25 May, 03
12 May, 03 > 18 May, 03
Entries by Topic
All topics  «
Unrelated to Business but Great Blogs
sugarmama
Jimmy Gillman.com
go fug yourself
Sponsored Links
Elliott Wave Int'l
Other Interesting Websites
Band Biographies
60th Cycle Band Website
General Investing/Financial Blogs of Interest
Neville's Financial Blog
Pitpop
Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Tuesday, 16 March 2004
"Trading Transparency" SMTS

Hello Friends!

With the market looking a bit oversold, I went ahead and pushed my rules a bit and put in an order to buy 600 Somanetics (SMTS) at the market this morning. Somanetics came out with good earnings results this morning and with the 50% decrease in stroke rate reported associated with the use of their Cerebral oxygen monitoring during open heart surgery, this appears to be a company with all the ducks in a row as they say.

Please do your own due diligence and consult with your investment advisor before making any decisions based on information published here. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Regards!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 8:01 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Monday, 15 March 2004
March 15, 2004 Toro (TTC)
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by. As always, remember to PLEASE do your own due diligence, that is do your own homework and investigation on all of the stocks that are discussed here and actually anywhere on the web...before taking any action. Also, consider talking to your financial advisors as stocks I discuss may not be appropriate or timely for you!

Anyhow, it is a LOUSY day in the market. Come to think of it, it has been a LOUSY month as well. Currently, as I write, the Dow is DOWN 111.85 points at 10,128.23, and the NASDAQ is down 37.21 points at 1,947.52. The skittishness over terrorism in Spain is not helping this market at all!

One stock that is bucking this trend is Toro (TTC). As I write, Toro is trading at $58.96, up $2.65 on the day or 4.71%. According to the money.cnn.com "snapshot", TTC "...principal activities are to design, develop, manufacture and sell professional turf maintenance equipment, turf and agricultural irrigation systems, landscaping equipment, and residential yard products." Around here in Wisconsin, Toro has both plants and is known for their lawnmowers and snowblowers.

On February 24, 2004, Toro reported 1st quarter 2004 results. At the same time, almost more importantly, they raised fiscal 2004 guidance. For the quarter ended January 30, 2004, Toro reported revenue of $314 million compared to $296 million the prior year. Earnings were up 33% to $.36/share compared to $.27/share the prior year.

Looking at "5-Yr Restated" financials from Morningstar.com, we can see that revenue has grown steadily from $1.1 billion in 1998 to $1.5 billion in the trailing twelve months. Earnings have been a bit erratic, increasing from $.16/share in 1998 to $1.93 in 2001, dipping to $1.37 in 2002 and back up to $3.12 in trailing twelve months.

Per Morningstar.com, the free cash flow has been solidly positive with $66 million in 2000, $35 million in 2001, $98 million in 2002, and $36 million in trailing twelve months.

Looking at assets/liabilities, we see that even though the cash level is relatively low at $15.7 million, Toro has $665.0 million in other current assets as compared to $313 million in current liabilities and only $188.9 million in long-term liabilities. There is enough in current assets and cash to easily pay off all of the liabilities.

When checking "Key Statistics" on Yahoo.com, we find that the market cap is large at $1.43 billion, the trailing p/e is nice at 18.36 (imho), and the forward p/e is even bennter at 14.38 (for fye 31-Oct-05). This results in a very nice PEG of 1.10. The price/sales is also reasonably cheap at 0.90.

There are 24.28 million shares outstanding and 23.10 million of them float. Currently there are only 394,000 shares out short (as of 2/9/04), representing 2.962 trading days or 1.71% of the float. Interestingly, the company also DOES pay a small dividend of $.24/share yielding 0.43%. The last stock split was a 2:1 split in April, 2003.

Looking at technicals, using a chart from Stockcharts.com, we see that TTC broke out of a resistance level early in January, 2001, at about $16.5/share and has powered ahead very strongly ever since then. If anything, it appears a little ahead of itself, but then again, looking at valuation, suggests that this stock may have a lot more to go on the upside.

The company is also doing what it can to support the stock price. As announced on March 12, 2004, Toro is planning to buy back 2.5 million of its shares (more than 10% of its float!), at a "Dutch auction tender" at a premium of .3% to 6.6% over Friday's closing price. This is driving the stock upwards today in the face of an overall broad-based correction in equities.

In summary, there is little that I do NOT like about this stock! I just am not currently in the market for shares, as you understand my strategy of waiting until I have a gain before buying....but the valuation is right, the company is raising estimates, the balance sheet is clean...so it looks intriguing to me! I do NOT currently own any shares or option positions on this stock!

Thanks so much for stopping by. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Regards!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:11 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
"Trading Transparency" GI, and MYL
Hello Friends! Today the market is talking to me. In fact it is SCREAMING at me. No, I am NOT hearing voices, but the price action is telling me to get out of stocks. At least two that are now hitting and passing 8% stops. GI blew past the 8% loss level, and in fact I just pulled the plug with about a 15% loss, MYL was sold with just over an 8% loss. Now down two positions from the previous 22 I believe....should be at about 20...with 25 our goal. I will try to SIT ON MY HANDS and not buy anything until I can sell a portion of a position at a gain. This is my gyroscope...tells me to back off of margin and reduce exposure to equities. Let's see if it works!

In summary, I just sold 300 shares of GI, my entire position, at $18.37. I JUST purchased these shares on 3/4/04 at a price of $21.72.

Second, I just sold my 200 shares of MYL at $22.66. These shares were purchased on 11/25/03, at a cost basis of $24.83.

There, got that taken care of. Now batten down the hatches and let's see if we can ride this out!

Thanks so much for stopping by! As always, please do your own due diligence on all stock market ideas listed here, consult with your investment advisors as well to make sure that actions on equities are suitable and appropriate for you!

If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:08 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Sunday, 14 March 2004
"Seven Months Ago" A longer term view examining the week of August 18, 2003
Hello Friends! Just trying to finish up a little website "housework" here before crashing for the evening. From the last post, we can see how even with a selective stock-picking system it is quite hard to fight the market...and indeed virtually impossible...as the market correction pulled back our stocks as well. Last weekend, I looked at the week of August 11th, 2003. This weekend, let's review the week of August 18, 2003.

During that week, six selections were made on this website: Measurement Specialties (MSS), PolyMedica (PLMD), Dynacq International (DYIIE), Lifeway Foods (LWAY), Electronics Boutique (ELBO) and DJ Orthopedics (DJO). I do not own shares of any of these stocks.

Measurement Specialties (MSS) was selected on Bob's Advice on 8/18/03 at a price of $12.31. MSS closed on 3/12/04 at $18.65 for a gain of $6.34 or 51.5%.

On February 4, 2004, MSS reported third quarter results for the three months ended December 31, 2003. Sales increased 12.4% to $31.9 million compared to $28.4 million in the prior year. Net income, however, without taking into consideration non-recurring events etc., was down at $.06/share vs $.13/share the prior year. It appears that the company is doing 'o.k.' but not blowing away the numbers (imho). With the outstanding performance, I would certainly hold on to the stock to await next quarters results...but would defer adding to or starting a new position at this time.

PLMD was posted on Bob's Advice on 8/18/03 at a price of $46.05. PLMD closed on 3/12/04 at $26.46. PLMD split 2:1 on 9/30/03, thus our effective pick price was $23.025. Thus, the stock has had a gain of $3.435 or 14.9%.

On February 5, 2004, PolyMedica reported 3rd quarter 2004 results. Net revenues for the quarter ended December 31, 2003 were $106.5 million, compared to $89.9 million the prior year. Net income, however, was $2.2 million or $.08/share compared to $10.4 million, or $.41/share the prior year. The decrease was attributed to one-time write downs of "non-cash impairment charge" related to a write-down of certain assets...and for establishing additional reserves for estimated overpayments by Medicare. With the stock price doing well, I would hesitate to sell, but would avoid buying, and certainly, on any additional bad news, would find me a seller of these shares.

Dynacq International (DYIIE) was the greatest disappointment for this week's picks. I picked Dynacq on 8/19/03 when it was at $24.50. DYIIE closed on 3/12/04 at $5.65/share for a loss of $(18.85) or (76.9)%. Dynacq has had reporting problems, resignation of independent auditor, resignation of chief executive and subsequently delays in reporting financial results with multiple lawsuits filed against the company. This stock, if purchased by me, would have been a good test of the old 8% rule...keeping losses to a minimum. In the meantime, I could not recommend purchase of these shares.

Lifeway Foods was posted on Bob's Advice on 8/21/03 at $14.51. LWAY split 2:1 on 3/9/04, just a few days ago, so our adjusted recommendation was at $7.255. LWAY closed today at $17.60 for a gain of $10.345 or 142.6%.

Electronics Boutique (ELBO) was picked for Bob's Advice on 8/22/03 at $32.30. ELBO closed on 3/12/04 at $27.25 for a loss $(5.05) or (15.6)%.

On March 11, 2004, ELBO reported fourth quarter fiscal 2004 ended January 31, 2004. Income was up nicely at $671.5 million vs $533.5 million last year. Earnings per share for the quarter were $1.57 up from $1.21 last year. Same store sales were up 2% in the quarter...a rather tepid growth imho. In addition, ELBO announced growth for the first quarter under analysts expectations. With the tepid same store sales growth and lowered expectations, I would have a hard time recommending this stock for the BLOG.

Finally, on August 22, 2003, I posted DJ Orthopedics on the blog when it was selling at $10.89. DJO closed on 3/12/04 at $20.53 for a gain of $9.64 or 88.5%.

On January 28, 2004, DJO announced fourth quarter 2003 results. Net revenues totalled $54.6 million, an increase of 17.0% over last year's $46.7 million. Net income for the quarter was $4.1 million or $.21/share vs a loss of $(6.0) million or $(0.33)/share the prior year. This company appears to be doing just fine!

Overall, for the six stocks, I had an average gain of 34.2% over the 7 months of observation. Not too bad, and much better than the "seven weeks" review posted earlier today!

Thanks so much for stopping by! Remember to PLEASE do your own reviews and analysis on all of these stocks and consult with your financial advisor for advice on whether the investments are appropriate or not. If you have any questions, comments, or any other queries, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Regards!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:26 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
"How are we doing?" A look back on the week of January 5, 2004

Hello Friends! I got a bit of a late start this weekend...so let's get right down to business. One of the things I like to do is to review the stock picks in a methodical fashion on weekends. Currently, I am looking back about two months, and about seven months. As the BLOG gets older, I will probably drop the two month review and stay with about a 7 month and a 1 year review. If you have additional ideas, please email me and let me know. Also would appreciate knowing if this review process is helpful. I think I owe it to any reader who comes by, to review past picks to find out how this whole process is working! And I am certainly NOT always making profitable picks!

During the week of January 5th, 2004, I made six stock selections: Applied Films (AFCO), Dollar Tree (DLTR), UniFirst (UNF), Kenneth Cole Productions (KCP), Resources Connection (RECN), and American Medical Systems (AMMD).

On January 5, 2004, I posted Applied Films (AFCO) at $37.46/share. AFCO closed 3/12/04 at $31.00/share for a loss of $(6.46) or (17.2)%.

Dollar Tree (DLTR) was picked on Bob's Advice on 1/6/04 at $31.85. DLTR closed on 3/12/04 at $29.63 for a loss of $(2.22) or (7.0)%. Clearly this latest correction in the NASDAQ took a toll on our stocks as well!

UniFirst (UNF) was posted on the blog on 1/7/04 at a price of $27.11. UNF closed on 3/12/04 at $25.41 for a loss of $(1.70) or (6.3)%.

Kennect Cole Productions (KCP) was posted on Bob's Advice on 1/7/04 at a price of $31.95/share. KCP closed 3/12/04 at $32.41 for a gain of $.46 or 1.4%.

Resources Connection (RECN) was selected for the blog on 1/8/04 at a price of $34.50. RECN closed 3/12/04 at a price of $34.00 for a loss of $(.50) or (1.4)%.

Finally, American Medical Systems (AMMD)was picked on Bob's Advice on 1/9/04 at $25.96. AMMD closed 3/12/04 at $28.15 for a gain of $2.19 or 8.4%.

Overall, my six stock picks during this eight week session had an average loss of (3.7)%. This was a tough period for the NASDAQ which has given up all of its gains for 2004, and my picks did not escape the downdraft!

Thanks so much for stopping by! As always, please be sure to do your own due diligence on these and all stock picks on the blog. Be sure to consult with your financial advisor to make sure that the stock discussed is appropriate for you as all investments involve risk of losses as well as gains!

If you have any questions, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com and I will try to get back to you ASAP!

Regards!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 5:53 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
March 14, 2004 "A reader Inquires"
Hello Friends,

I always enjoy receiving some mail from readers. It helps me know that you all are out there! Keep those cards and letters coming!

Gus B. writes, "I do not find all the stocks in your portfolio in your picks or all your picks in your portfolio. Am I missing something? It would help for me on your picks to give your entry and exit dates. What determines your entry price? Do you use technical analysis or just enter the next day at the opening?"

First of all, virtually every single one of the stocks in my trading portfolio is listed somewhere in my stock picks. You can check the "Current Trading Portfolio and 2003 Stock Picks" for most of the picks...it is a LONG page, and you need to scroll down to scan through the list. I am NOT an HTML expert in ANY fashion (!), and bear with me. For 2004, I started a new page for "Stock Picks 2004" and my more recent picks are there.

The only stock that comes to mind in my trading portfolio that is NOT in my list is Rite-Aid (RAD), which I picked up in 2002 on a pure VALUE play, before I really set up this system and this web page. I have sold portions of that investment as it has appreciated at my usual target prices, but it does NOT actually fit my current strategy. It HAS actually been wildly profitable for me, thus showing that there are many OTHER methods that may be even MORE profitable than this...and I am sure the jury is still out on what I am doing.

My entry and exit dates are reported in a running fashion on and under my trading portfolio information. Generally, my fashion is to wait until I am in the market for a stock and then to purchase a stock in the next day or so following that...sometimes in the next hour (!), based on stocks that are moving upwards and that I have usually posted that day. You can trace back my trading portfolio purchase dates on the blog, and I try to post each purchase withing minutes, or at least the same day.

I do NOT use any particular technical analysis when purchasing a stock. I generally buy "at the market" or even "at the opening" the next day. I am certain a good technician could improve on this.

Again, the VAST MAJORITY of my "stock picks" have NEVER been in my trading account. I just like to report on what I think are potential stocks of interest. For instance, I posted TASR, and UNFORTUNATELY NEVER PURCHASED A SHARE when it was about $29, before the 3:1 split...and now it is about $55 or so. So I miss a lot of potential winners as well.

Also unfortunately, I DO use a sort of seat of the pants approach when I purchase a stock when I have the funds and it is part of my strategy. I believe in a sort of Natural Selection in the portfolio. (Does this sound corny?). That is, if a stock is to move upwards after my purchase, then I probably selected and purchased correctly. If it moves downward, with my 8% stop, (a manual stop virtually always for me), it quickly exits my portfolio leaving me to find another stock.

I hope this answers your questions! Please excuse me for responding on the web...but I am sure others share your similar concerns. Please email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com if this is unclear or if you have other inquiries. Thanks so much for taking the time to write. Please remember that I am an amateur as well, and that you should do your own due diligence (investigation) of all the ideas I post...and consider consulting with an investment advisor if that would be available to make sure the investments are appropriate for you!

Regards!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 5:13 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
March 14, 2004 Somanetics (SMTS)
Hello Friends! I took a break for a few days. I hope you all managed to survive the correction. Hopefully, the rebound will last longer than a day...but I am certain that next week will be interesting! My trading account is intact without any additional sales due to losses. The closest to a sale is currently Mylan (MYL), which is down about 6% from my purchase price...so will be watching that one especially closely.

Looking over Fridays movers, I came across Somanetics Corp (SMTS) which closed at $11.50, up $1.05 or 10.05% on the day. According to the Yahoo profile, Somanetics "...develops, manufactures and markets the INVOS Cerebral Oximeter, the only non-invasive patient monitoring system commercially available in the United States that continuously measures changes in the blood oxygen level in the brain." On March 11th, 2004, results from a 2,279 patient study were reported at the Cardiothoracic Techniques and Technologies Annual meeting that cardiac surgery patients showed a "...significant reduction in permanent stroke" when monitored with the Company's INVOS Cerebral Oximeter. With the large numbers of cardiac surgical patients in the U.S., and the ever-growing concern about brain status after surgery, this may indeed be a very significant development. The market responded accordingly boosting the price of the stock.

On January 13, 2004, Somanetics reported fourth quarter 2003 earnings results. For the quarter ended November 30, 2003, revenues increased 44% to a record $2.9 million. Net income was a record $321,955 or $.04/basic share, compared to a net loss of $(85,849) or $(0.01)/share the prior year in 2002.

The "5-Yr Restated" financials on Morningstar.com shows that revenues, while small, have grown steadily from $2 million in 1998, $4 million in 1999, $5.1 million in 2000, $5.7 million in 2001, $6.7 million in 2002 and $8.5 million in the trailing twelve months.

Earnings per share, which just turned positive (see above note), have improved steadily from a loss of $(1.01) to $.01/share in 2003, based on the just-reported fourth quarter.

Free cash flow, while negative, has been improving from $(4) million in 2000, $(2) million in 2001, $(1) million in 2002 and per Morningstar, $(1) million in the trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet looks quite nice with $1.9 million in cash, more than enough to cover the current liabilities of $700,000 and NO long-term liabilities at all. In addition SMTS has $2.7 million in other current assets.

Looking at Yahoo "Key Statistics" we can see that this is a TINY company with a market cap of $107.1 million. The trailing p/e (with $.01/share reported), is astronomical at 2,300. However, the PEG, is much better at 2.73, with a price/sales still quite steep at 10.40. There are only 9.31 million shares outstanding with 8.80 million of them that float. Only 11,000 shares are out short, quite insignificant as of 2/9/04, representing 0.12% of the float or 0.079 trading days. No cash dividend is paid, and the last split was actually a reverse split of 1:10 paid out 4/11/97.

Overall, I like this stock a lot. It is quite speculative and I certainly am NOT in a position to add any positions (even though I am at 22 positions of my goal of 25), as I am WAITING, trying to sit on my hands, until I have a sail of a portion of my holdings at a GAIN. The valuation is tough to measure since they are JUST turning profitable this year. However, the track record of growing revenues, improving earnings, and improving free cash flow is terrific. I like the current news a lot regarding the degrease in morbidity just presented associated with cardiac surgery and the use of this company's products.

Taking a quick technical look at the SMTS point and figure chart, we can see this stock was going nowhere until about May, 2003, when it broke through a resistance level at about $2.75/share and has not looked back since!

Please check with your own financial advisor to make sure this stock is appropriate for you as it is a small company that for me at least means that while there may be great potential for gain, may also represent risks on the downside. Always do your own due diligence. As mentioned above, I do not own any shares of this stock.

Thanks again for stopping by and visiting. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at Bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Regards!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 4:56 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Tuesday, 9 March 2004
March 9, 2004 ResCare (RSCR)
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by. Please remember to do your own due diligence on all of the stocks mentioned on this website and to consult with your financial advisors to make sure the selections are suitable and timely for your investment requirements.

I came across Res-Care Inc. (RSCR) this morning which is trading at $11.01, up $.66 on the day or 6.38% as I write. According to the , RSCR's "...principal activities are to provide residential, therapeutic, job training, educational and support services to populations with special needs, including persons with developmental and other disabilities to youth with special needs and to adults who are experiencing barriers to employment."

On February 25, 2004, RSCR reported their fourth quarter 2003 earnings results. For the quarter ended 12/31/03, revenue was $244 million vs. $234 million the prior year. Diluted eps was $.10/share vs $(0.29) the prior year.

If we look at a "5-Yr Restated" financials from Morningstar.com, we find that revenue growth has been steady since 1998 when they reported $708.4 million, increasing annually to $951.2 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings have been very erratic with $.96/share reported in 1998, dropping to a low of a loss of $(.18)/share in 2001, and then improving the last two years to $.16/share in the trailing twelve months.

Free cash flow has been positive if a bit erratic with $18 million in 2000, $3 million in 2001, then improving to $22 million in 2002 and $57 million in the trailing twelve months.

Balance sheet-wise, per Morningstar, is fine if not perfect with $95.1 million in cash and $160 million in other current assets as opposed to $117.9 million in current liabilities and $263.8 million in long-term liabilities.

If we check "Key Statistics" on Yahoo.com, we see that the market cap is at $273.56 million making this a small cap stock. The trailing p/e is at 20.46, but the forward p/e for 2004 is at 13.05. PEG ratio, however, is a bit steep at 2.76, but price/sales is cheap at 0.27.

Yahoo reports 24.67 million shares outstanding with 19.00 million of them that float. Currently there are only 180,000 shares out short representing 0.95% of the float or 3.273 trading days. No dividend is paid and the last stock split reported on Yahoo was a 3:2 in June, 1998.

Technicall, if we check a chart, we can see that the stock was actually heading lower between 2000 and 2003, and then about May, 2003, broke out through a resistance area about $4/share, and has headed higher since.

Overall, I am fairly ambivalent about this particular issue. What concerns me is that although revenue growth has been steady, earnings growth has been erratic. Balance sheet looks ok with recent improvement of free cash flow. PEG is high at over 2.5, but forward p/e isn't that bad. I guess as they say around here "It's a horse apiece". Whatever that means!

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments or words of encouragement, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Regards!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:12 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Monday, 8 March 2004
March 8, 2004 Total System Services (TSS)
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting. Please make yourself at home and if this is your first visit, please take a look at the main website accessible from a link at left, as well as the many past posts. As always, please do your own due diligence prior to acting on any investment ideas and consult with your investment advisor to make sure that they are appropriate and timely for your individual situation.

I came across Total System Services (TSS) today while scanning the lists of top % gainers. TSS is having a reasonably nice day trading as I write at $22.30/share up $.99 or 4.65% on the day. According to the "Snapshot" on money.cnn.com, TSS "...through its wholly owned subsidiaries, provides credit, debit commercial and private-label card processing services."

Taking a look at the latest quarterly report, which was the fourth quarter 2003 results which were announced on January 20, 2003, we find that revenue for the latest quarter ended December 31, 2003, increased 13.1% to $278.3 million from $246.0 million last year. Net income was up 11.2% to $39.4 million from $35.5 million the prior year and diluted earnings/share jumped 10.9% to $.20/share from $.18/share.

Checking the "5-Yr Restated" financials on Morningstar.com, we find that revenues have grown steadily from $0.6 billion in 1998, to $1.0 billion in the trailing twelve months. Earnings/share have also grown each and every year from $.28/share to $.69/share in the latest twelve months. Interestingly, in addition, the company DOES pay a small dividend which has been increasing from $.04/share in 1998 to $.08/share in the trailing twelve months.

Free cash flow, while erratic, has been consistently positive. $62 million in 2000, $3 million in 2001, $116 millin in 2002 and $47 million in the trailing twelve months.

Balance sheet-wise, TSS has $55.6 million in cash and $170.9 million in other current assets, plenty to cover both the $123.7 million in current liabilities and the $92.2 million in long-term liabilities combined.

Checking some "Key Statistics" on Yahoo.com, we find that this is a large cap company with a market cap of $4.39 Billion. The trailing p/e is a bit rich at 31.16, with forward p/e (fye 31-Dec-05) is still at 25.91. The PEG is at 1.86...so this is not a screaming bargain, and the price/sales is a bit rich as well at 3.98.

There are 196.82 million shares outstanding, and ONLY 31.0 million of them float. Currently there are 3.67 million shares out short, which is a bit steep considering only 31 million that float so this represents 11.85% of the float, or 7.12 trading days. This is probably bullish for this stock...as that is a large # of shares that need to be covered. Any steep rise in price might lead to a squeeze imho.

As I mentioned earlier, TSS does pay a small dividend of $.08/share yielding 0.38%. Nothing to write home about, but an increasing dividend, as TSS reports, is a very nice feature that may add some price appreciation and stabilization to this issue. The last stock split was a 3:2 in May, 1998.

Looking at a Point and Figure Chart on TSS, we can see that this stock has been trading essentially sideways since 2000 with a rise in 2001, followed by a drop down to about $11.5 where it had support. In late 2003, TSS broke through its resistance level at about $17.00/share and has been trading higher since. That is my simplified read on this chart!

Overall, TSS is an interesting, if not cheap selection. They have nice free cash flow, steady growth in revenue and earnings, and a clean balance sheet. The valuation isn't that great as we are not the first to apparently discover this issue, but the consistency is very attractive. The large short posiition may lead to increased buying in the short term. I do not own any shares of this stock myself.

Thanks very much for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to leave them right here or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com .

Regards to all!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 12:52 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Saturday, 6 March 2004
"Seven Months Ago" A longer term view examining the week of August 11, 2003
Hello Again! I just finished posting a review of how this blog is doing seven weeks out and it was a pretty dismal performance on stocks from that week. However, longer term I still seem to do well with these picks. Remember that past performance is NO guarantee of future performance and always, yes always, do your own due diligence investigational work on all of these stocks!

The week of August 11, 2003, was a pretty quiet week for this blog. During that week, I selected Possis Medical (POSS), Techne Corp. (TECH), and Tyler Technologies (TYL) for the blog.

On August 11, 2003, Possis was selected for Bob's Advice at a price of $17.33. POSS closed on 3/5/04 at $26.15 for a gain of $8.82 or 50.9%.

On February 18, 2004, POSS reported 2nd quarter 2004 results for the three months ended 1/31/04. They earned $3.1 million or $.16/share, up sharply from earnings of $2.1 million or $.11/share last year. Quarterly revenue was up 22% from the prior year as well. This stock is right on track!

I posted Techne Corp (TECH) on Bob's Advice on 8/12/03 at $32.08. TECH closed on 3/5/04 at $42.00 for a gain of $9.92 or 30.9%.

Looking for recent earnings or news, on January 27, 2004, TECH reported 2nd quarter 2004 results for the quarter ended December 31, 2003. For the quarter, net earnings were $12.4 million or $.30/diluted share vs. $9.9 million or $.23/diluted share the prior year. Consolidated net sales for the quarter were $38.3 million, a 15% increase over the prior year's sales. This company is doing 'just fine!'

Finally, on 8/14/03, I posted Tyler Technologies (TYL) on the blog at a price of $5.75. TYL closed 3/5/04 at $9.64 for a gain of $3.89 or 67.7%.

On February 25, 2004, TYL reported 4th quarter 2003 results whith income from continuing operations of $3.5 million or $.08/share vs $2.6 million, or $.05/share the prior year. Total revenue for the quarter increased 7% to $39.1 million from $36.4 million the prior year. This company appears to be doing just fine!

Looking at the performance of the three stocks we find gains of 50.9%, 30.9%, 67.7%. After probably out WORST seven week performance (see the prior post), this is probably the BEST seven month performance with an average gain of 49.8%. (Unfortunately, I do not own any of these stocks!)

Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to leave them on the BLOG or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:42 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink

Newer | Latest | Older