Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Monday, 12 April 2004
"Trading Transparency" CGPI
Hello Friends! I just entered an order to purchase CGPI and bought 400 shares at $14. I was jumping the gun a bit...should have waited until I sold something....but then I have never been too good at following ALL the rules. :) Please do your own due diligence on all stocks prior to making any decisions and consult with your investment advisor.
Thanks so much for stopping by!
P.S.: As I write, CGPI is selling for bid $14.00, and ask $14.05.
"A Reader Writes" What about NKE?
Hello Friends! I had the pleasure of getting another email from a wonderful fellow investor that I have traded posts with on MSN.COM.
Annie writes:One company that I have shares in and have for some time is NKE. That is a company that I like for some of the same reasons that I have liked AVP , although of course there are many differences as well. I don't know if that company has ever caught your eye , and for that matter , as with STJ , I want to update my evaluation on the valuation.
Nike has been a stock that I have watched out of my "peripheral vision" and I suppose that it will eventually make it to the pages of Stock Picks. However, let me take a quick look at it NOW and see what we have:
NKE closed on 4/8/04 at $76.77. On March 18, 2004, NKE reported 3rd quarter earnings
for the quarter ended February 29, 2004. Revenues were up 21% to $2.9 billion vs. $2.4 billion the prior year, and net income totalled $200.3 million or $.74 per diluted share compared to $124.7 million or $.47/diluted share the prior year. These results are certainly nothing short of fabulous!
Checking "5-Yr Restated" financials
on Morningstar.com, we can see that revenue growth has been steady over the last five years, increasing EACH year from $8.8 billion in 1999 to $11.2 billion in the trailing twelve months. Earnings per share have also increased steadily except for 2003 when they dropped from $2.44 to $1.77, however, they are back up to $3.02 the trailing twelve months. This drop may have kept me from posting this one previously.
Free cash flow is nothing short of spectacular! They generated $339 million in 2001, $799 million in 2002, $732 million in 2003, and are up to $1.10 BILLION for the trailing twelve months. VERY NICE!
Balance sheet? They have $968.9 million in cash and $4.05 billion in other current assets, plenty to cover BOTH their current liabilities of $2.0 billion and the long-term liabilities of $1.01 billion combined. This is also VERY NICE!
Annie, I knew you were good, but these numbers are very nice indeed!
Looking at "Key Statistics"
on Yahoo we see that the market cap is a large $20.2 billion. The trailing p/e isn't too bad at 23.23, and the forward p/e is 19.44. The PEG is only a little higher than desirable at 1.54. And price/sales also just a little rich at 1.72.
There are 263.12 million shares outstanding with only 131.7 million of them that float. Currently there are 5.47 million shares out short representing 4.15% of the float or 3.716 trading days as of 3/8/04. With all of the GOOD news out on this stock, I think this sizeable short interest is BULLISH. IMHO.
The company DOES pay a little dividend of $.80/share yielding 1.04%. The last stock split was a 2:1 in October 1996.
Technical attributes? If we look at a "Point and Figure" chart
from Stockcharts.com, we can see that in early January, 2003, NKE broke out of a resistance level of about $45/share and has traded higher in a VERY strong fashion to its current level in the high $70's.
Overall, the stock is a little rich on the valuation side...that is PEG-wise, and the chart looks a little extended, but otherwise, these are GREAT numbers for NKE and DO fit into my investment ideas for what I call quality stocks.
Thanks so much for stopping by and contributing a GREAT stock to our lists. It sure is nice to receive emails from people who think a lot about stocks!
If YOU have a question, comment, or words of encouragement, PLEASE feel free to email me at firstname.lastname@example.org PLEASE remember to do your own due diligence and homework on all of the stocks discussed here and discuss them with YOUR investment advisor to make sure they are timely and appropriate fo you!
Sunday, 11 April 2004
"A reader writes" How to start?
Happy Easter everyone! I wasn't planning to write today, having gotten the bulk of my website homework done, but was delighted to get an email from Damon S. who wrote:Dear Bob,
Thanks for putting out a fun and informative site, especially for
a beginning investor like myself. Your views and methods are a
breath of fresh air after all the hot air I read at other sites.
I`ve just opened an Ameritrade account with a rather small amount
of money ($5000). I was wondering how many stocks you would suggest
purchasing with that amount.. 5 stocks at $1000 each? 10 at $500?
Rather than buy the major stocks that industry folks recommend I`m
combing through stocks you recommend for likely buys. My short list is:
Look okay to you?
You mentioned something recently about not buying in a Bear market.
Do you think Bearish conditions will prevail in the near future,
and it would be better to hold off starting this `game`?
Thanks a lot,
In response, let me first point out that I am an amateur investor as well so I will try to avoid specific stock buys or sell recommendations for individual people. In general, I try to find stocks that MAY have good potential and since all of the group came off MY list, well what can I say about your selections :) ? And thanks for the kind words about fresh air and fun...I kind of think this site gets a bit long-winded....but I am glad you are bearing with me.
I think $5000 is a great number to start with. What I would suggest is determining what your budget can handle insofar as future contributions to your "fund" and then set up an automatic deposit into your brokerage, or make regular checks of some amount, whether it is $50 or $100 or more each month.
The number of stocks is a good question too. I read an interesting book not long ago "How to Make $1,000,000 in the Stock Market Automatically!" by Robert Lichello, which can be found at Amazon
for $3.99 for a used copy which you also might enjoy. Mr. Lichello believes in setting up a portfolio so that he can switch back and forth automatically from equities into cash. I would suggest you do something like this.
Perhaps it would be wise to start with 3 stocks out of a planned 5. You may notice that my personal goal is 25 stocks but I am working with a larger fund of money....hopefully you get there too!
If you believe that we are in a bear market, I will defer to you, but I suspect we are through much of the short-term correction and are actually going to rebound going into the first quarter earnings report season, (boy is THIS a run-on sentence!), but if you think it is a bear, start with 2 positions (!)...using 40% of your capital. Otherwise start with 3 fairly equal sized positions using 60% (or $3,000) of capital. I do NOT think that smaller positions, like $500 are a good idea due to the excessive effect of transaction costs. This is already a bit of a problem with a $1000 position, making a discount brokerage an imperative.
O.K....so let's say 3 positions...you take your pick. I use an 8% stop. I would suggest with positions your size, I would use a bit more liberal stop, maybe 10 or 12% before selling. I would wait to add a 4th or 5th position, by seeing if we can sell a portion of the first three at a gain. Again, with an initially smaller position, you might want to wait for a 40% gain and then sell 1/3, 80%, sell a 1/3, 120%, sell a 1/3 etc. This will be a point when you can add a 4th position. However, if you hit a sell point FIRST that is DROP to two positions, then I would WAIT to go back to 3 until you sell a portion of your remaining two at a GAIN. Are you following me?
At all times, I would stay 40% invested. That is, if you sell down to two positions, and one of them sells at a loss, I would replace that position in relatively short order...no rush though...with a stock that has been strong recently.
This is a relatively mild form of market-timing. That is in LOUSY market conditions, you will be holding a 40% equity exposure, and in good market conditions, you will go to 100%. I am trying to help you do this AUTOMATICALLY so that you will not need to assess the market yourself, but instead let the market direct you through sales either at a loss, when you will be contracting your equity exposure, or at a gain, when you will use the proceeds to add a position.
I would not go to six positions unless you have built up the cash with the automatic deposits and a recent sale to add to the portfolio.
WOW, I didn't mean to write that much. I do not want to scare you off yikes. But I hope that is helpful to you. That at least is how I would set up a portfolio with $5000.
Remember to check with your investment advisors and do lots of your own investigations. I cannot be responsible any more for your losses than can I take the credit for your gains! Good luck investing, and be sure to write and let me know what you did and how it is working out for you!
All you others, please feel free to write and let me know how the BLOG is helpful for you and any way I can improve it!
Saturday, 10 April 2004
"Seven Months Ago" A longer term view examining the week of September 15, 2003
Hello Friends ! Thanks so much for stopping by. As always, I need to remind you to always do your own investigation of all stocks discussed here as I am an amateur investor and not a certified investment advisor. Please consult with YOUR investment advisors in regards to stocks discussed to make sure they are suitable and timely for YOU. Remember that as you may have heard elsewhere, past performance is NO guarantee of future results in stocks or any investment.
So this is Part #2 of my weekend work. This is the longer-term view of Stock Picks Bobs Advice. Since it has been seven months or so since I listed the following stocks, I will try to see if the stocks are still on track per our criteria to maintain their place on this blog. For that I like to check the recent quarter results and the generally available news on the Net.
I had a VERY BUSY week for this period of time actually picking eleven stocks!
The first stock that week, Aeropostale (ARO) was picked
for the blog on 9/15/03 at $27.25/share. ARO closed at $34.00 on 4/8/04 for a gain of $6.75 or 24.8%.
Looking at Yahoo headlines for ARO, I found that ARO reported March results
on 4/7/04, and they announced that sales for the five week period ended April 3, 2004, increased 44.6% to $67.4 million. More importantly comparable store sales were up 14.2% from last year. Equally bulllish, they raised their 1st quarter guidance to $.11/share from the $.09/share they had previously guided. This was nice news.
Looking for recent earnings, ARO reported 4th quarter 2003 results
on 3/11/04. Earnings per share jumped 54% to $.71 vs $.46 the prior year. Sales for the quarter jumped 32.1% to $272.6 million from $206.4 million the prior year. Needless to say, this was a GREAT report! They also announced an upcoming 3:2 split to be effective in the next couple of weeks from THIS post.
On September 16, 2003, I posted Lexar Media (LEXR)
on this blog at $19.73. LEXR closed at $18.07 for a loss of $(1.66) or (8.4)%.
On January 29, 2004, LEXR announced 4th quarter 2003 results
which were outstanding with a revenue for the quarter of $177.5 million, a 171% increase from the $65.5 million last year. Net income was $18.9 million or $.21/diluted share compared to $5.6 million or $.08/share the prior year. Again a more than 200% increase year over year. However, the stock has been week since the company announced 1st quarter results under the "street's" expectations
. This slowed the stock price appreciation, which was nothing short of meteoric previously, but the stock still deserves our attention!
We dabbled in the restaurant business, when on September 16, 2003, I posted Frisch's Restaurants (FRS)
on the blog at $23.75. FRS has actually done quite well and closed at $28.50 on 4/8/04 for a gain of $4.75 or 20.0%.
On April 6, 2004, FRS reported 3rd quarter 2003 results
. For the period ended March 7, 2004, revenues rose 14.8% to $59.6 million from $51.9 million the prior year same quarter. Earnings form the quarter rose 39.6% to $2.2 million compared to $1.6 million the prior year or $.43/share from $.32/share last year. Sales for the Big Boy restaurants in the chain increased 7.3% for comparable units. This company is doing just fine!
Yikes, three down and EIGHT to go! Hang in there!
On September 17, 2003, I posted Gen-Probe (GPRO)
on this blog at $62.90. GPRO split 2:1 on 10/3/03, so our net stock pick price is actually $31.45. GPRO closed on 4/8/04 at $36.89 for a gain of $5.44 or 17.3%.
On February 12, 2004, GPRO reported 4th quarter 2003 results
: revenues for the fourth quarter of 2003 came in at $58.1 million, compared to $44.2 million the prior year. Net income for the quarter was $9.7 million, $.19/diluted share vs. $5.0 million or $.10/diluted share in 2002. This is a 90% increase in earnings. This company is doing just fine!
On September 17, 2003, I posted Endo Pharmaceuticals (ENDP)
on the blog at $20.99. ENDP closed at $25.38 on 4/8/04 for a gain of $4.39 or 20.9%.
ENDP was recently granted approval from the FDA or generic oxycodone
and this has been a boost for the stock. On February 5, 2004, ENDP announced 4th quarter 2003 results
: net sales for the fourth quarter of 2003 increased 25% to $142.0 million compared to $113.5 million for the fourth quarter of 2002. However, they reported a LOSS of $(31.7) million or $(.24)/share compared to a profit of $21.7 million or $.21/share the prior year. I am pleased with the recent approval of a new generic medication but am concerned about this recent quarterly report.
On September 17, 2003, I posted TALX (TALX)
on this Blog at $26.25/share. TALX closed at $24.05 on 4/8/04 for a loss of $(2.19) or (8.3)%.
On January 28, 2004, TALX reported 3rd quarter 2003 results
: for the quarter ended December 31, 2003, revenues rose 1% to $29.4 million from $29.2 million the prior year. Earnings were $2.5 million or $.18/diluted share DOWN from $2.7 million or $.19/diluted share the prior year. The only word I can use for this report is ANEMIC and nothing to write home about. This is not a stock I would be posting on the blog today!
September 18, 2003, found me posting Merge Tech (MRGE)
on this blog at $18.99. MRGE closed at $17.531 on 4/8/04 for a loss of $(1.459) or (7.7)%.
On February 19, 2003, MRGE announced 4th quarter 2003 results
: revenues for the quarter was $8.5 million, a 26% over $6.7 million the prior year. Net income was $1.9 million, a 48% increase over net income of $1.3 million the prior year. On a diluted per share basis this came in at $.14 for the quarter ended December 31, 2003, vs $.11/share the prior year. These results are just fine!
Hang in there! Just four more to review (PHEW!).
On September 19, 2003, I posted Stratasys (SSYS)
on the blog at $50.04. SSYS split 3:2 on 12/22/03, so our ACTUAL pick price works out to be $33.36. SSYS closed at $22.95 for a loss of $(10.41) or (31.2)%.
On February 18, 2004, SSYS announced 4th quarter 2003 results
: revenues grew 35% to $15.2 million for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2003, from $11.3 million for the same period in 2002. Net income came in at $1.5 million or $.14/diluted share DOWN from $1.6 million or $.19/diluted share the prior year. The earnings growth looks nice, but some concern must be placed at the drop in the net income...and the stock price has dropped along with this!
O.K. just three more!
On September 19, 2003, I posted Navigant Consulting (NCI)
on this blog at $14.53. NCI closed at $20.71 on 4/8/04 for a gain of $6.18 or 42.5%.
On February 12, 2004, NCI announced 4th quarter 2003 results
: revenues for the quarter were up 16% to $81.2 million and earnings per share were $.11/share vs $.04/share in 2002. For the year, earnings were $.40/share vs $.21/share in 2002. Overall, these were nice results!
Finally, on September 19, 2003, I posted Dendrite (DRTE)
at $16.99/share. DRTE closed at $17.00 for a gain of $.01 or .1%.
On January 29, 2004, DRTE reported 4th quarter 2003 results
: revenues for the quarter increased 74% to $99.0 million from the prior year. Fully diluted net income per share came in at $.14/share vs $.12/share the prior year. The company appears to be on track, but it is of some concern that revenues grew at such a large rate but the earnings barely budged.
FINALLY, on September 19, 2003, I posted IDX Systems (IDXC)
on Stock Picks Bobs Advice at $26.20/share. IDXC closed at $35.84 on 4/8/04. This was a gain of $9.64 or 36.8%.
On February 12, 2004, IDXC reported 4th quarter 2003 results
: revenues for the fourth quarter 2003 were $108 million up from $93 million in the prior year. Net income came in at $12.2 million or $.39/diluted share vs a net LOSS of $(1.1) million or $(0.04)/diluted share the prior year. These are very nice results.
On March 15, 2004, IDXC DID adjust 2003 results including the fourth quarter
due to an audit. They reduced fourth quarter revenue by $1 million to $107 million and cut net income by $370,000 or $.01/share to $.38/share. This does not appear to be a material adjustment, although it does raise some concern, but the resultant numbers are still fine and the stock price shows the confidence the street shows in this company!
So how did we do? Of these ELEVEN (!) selections, seven had gains: 24.8% for ARO, 20.0% for FRS, 17.3% for GPRO, 20.9% for ENDP, 42.5% for NCI, 36.8% for IDXC, and .1% for DRTE. Four stocks showed losses: (8.4)% for LEXR, (8.3)% for TALX, (7.7)% for MRGE and (31.2)% for SSYS. The average performance for these 11 stocks was a GAIN of 9.7%.
Now that was a long-winded review! Thanks so much for bearing with me....if you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at email@example.com
Have a GREAT weekend everyone!
"How are we doing?" A look back on the week of January 26, 2004
Hello Friends! Welcome back to those who are returning here and a warm welcome to any new visitors to this blog. I love to hear from readers about suggestions, critiques, questions and you name it so please feel free to email me at firstname.lastname@example.org if anything comes to mind! I will try to respond to you and may well list the response on the blog unless you tell me otherwise. As always please remember to ALWAYS do your own due diligence on all of these stock ideas. I AM an amateur investor and thus would really like you to check with your investment advisors before taking any investment action based on information on this Blog and website.
Weekends are for catching up on things. On this website, I like to use weekends to review past selections. We are looking both short-term, now about 9 weeks out, and longer term, about 7 months out. This weekend, I will be looking at the week of January 26, 2004, when I picked six stocks for this Blog.
My first pick was on January 26, 2004, when I selected Lexmark (LXK)
for Stock Picks Bobs Advice. LXK was trading at $83.58/share when I posted the stock. LXK closed at $96.16 on 4/8/04 for a gain of $12.58 or 15.1%.
On January 27, 2004, I picked Millipore (MIL)
for the Blog at a price of $50.87. MIL closed at $53.70 on 4/8/04 for a gain of $2.83 or 5.6%.
Candela (CLZR) was selected for Stock Picks Bobs Advice
on 1/28/04 at a price of $26.38. CLZR split 2:1 on 3/17/04 so our actual suggested price was $13.19. CLZR closed at $17.011 on 4/8/04 for a gain of $3.821 or 29.0%.
The fourth stock that week selected was Cytyc (CYTC)
at $14.89 on 1/29/04. Fortunately for me, this is the stock that I DID purchase in my current Trading Portfolio
and this has worked out well for me. CYTC closed on 4/8/04 at $22.54 a nice gain of $7.65 or 51.4%.
On January 29, 2004, I also selected Alliance Data Systems (ADS)
for the blog at a price of $29.50. ADS closed on 4/8/04 at $34.20 for a gain of $4.70 or 15.9%.
Finally, on 1/30/04, I picked Dendrite (DRTE)
for Stock Picks Bobs Advice at $16.99. DRTE closed essentially unchanged from that price at $17.00 for a gain of $.01 (!) or .1%.
Overall this was a GREAT week for stock selections on this blog with all six stocks showing gains: 15.1% for LXK, 5.6% for MIL, 29.0% for CLZR, 51.0% for CYTC, 15.9% for ADS, and .1% for DRTE. The average GAIN for these six stocks was 19.45% for the nine week period!
Thanks so much for stopping by. Please feel free to visit often! If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement (my favorite), please feel free to email me at email@example.com
Thursday, 8 April 2004
"Trading Transparency" SCHN
Hello Friends! Well you know I hate to tell you these things, but I just sold my Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) at $34.41. No there was nothing WRONG with this stock, but it hit my 8% loss limit (which I manually keep) and out it went! I sold the shares at $34.41 a few moments ago. I had purchased the shares on 4/2/04 for a cost basis of $37.44/share. Thus, I had a loss of $(3.03)/share or (8.1)%. Easy come, easy go I guess.
The toughest part for ME after selling at a loss, is that I need to WAIT for a portion of my holdings that I can sell at a GAIN before adding another position. Sigh. Oh well.
Thanks so much for stopping by! Remember to always do your own due diligence on all of these stocks discussed and talk to your investment advisors!
April 8, 2004 ValueClick (VCLK)
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by. I am at it again...at least on my lunch hour! Sometimes I think that running this blog COULD be a full-time job...or just maybe it feels that way! But I love every minute of it. Remember to PLEASE do your own investigation of every stock that is discussed here before making any of your own investment decisions, and please consult with your investment advisors as I am truly just another fellow amateur investor!
I came across ValueClick Inc. this afternoon while checking out the lists of movers in the market. It sounds like another 'dot-com' to me...but the numbers deserve attention. Currently, as I write, VCLK is trading at $12.16 up $1.31 or 12.07% on the day. According to the "Snapshot" on money.cnn.com
, VCLK's provides "...products and services that enable marketers to advertise and sell their products. The Group provides software that assists agencies with information management regarding their financial workflow and offline media buying and planning processes." Well, I guess that explains it (?).
On February 12, 2004, VCLK reported 4th quarter 2003 results
. For the quarter ended December 31, 2003, revenue was $30.3 million, a 61% increase over the $18.8 million reported the prior year. The company does relate that these results include acquisitions, but at least for final results, this still looks nice as they reported that net income for the quarter (before taxes and minority interest) was $5.3 million compared to $1.8 million the prior year. This worked out to $.07/diluted share vs $.02/diluted share the prior year.
Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials
shows revenue growth which while decreasing from 2000 to 2001, otherwise has been steady from 1998 when they reported revenue of $2.1 million, increasing to $81.0 million the prior twelve months. The company which was losing money at $(.20)/share in 2001, improved to a loss of $(.14)/share in 2002, and is reporting $.09/share for the trailing twelve months per Morningstar.com.
Free cash flow has been a bit erratic as well from $4 million in 2000, to $(7) million in 2001, $(2) million in 2002, but back to $8 million in the trailing twelve months.
Morningstar.com shows that this company has a beautiful balance sheet with $227.7 million in cash and $19.9 million in other current assets, compared to current liabilities of $17.3 million and $16.4 million in long-term liabilities. All of the liabilities, both long- and short-term, could be paid off about 7 times over just with the available cash!
Looking at "Key Statistics" from Yahoo
on VCLK we see that the market cap is a mid-cap $951.42 million, with a trailing p/e of 98.23 (!), but a forward p/e of only 30.45 (fye 31-Dec-05). Thus, the PEG isn't too bad at 1.90, but price/sales a bit rich at 9.16.
There are 78.11 million shares outstanding with 71.60 million of them that float. There are 1.16 million shares out short representing 1.251 trading days as of 3/8/04, or 1.63% of the float.
No cash or stock dividend is reported by Yahoo.
If we look at a "Point and Figure Chart"
, we can see that VCLK was trading lower through 2002 and then broke through a resistance level at about $3.50 in April, 2003, and has traded higher fairly consistently since then to its current level.
Overall, this is an interesting stock. No I do not own any shares nor have any short or option interest in it! The p/e is a bit rich for me although the growth is great, much of this is through acquisitions, which makes me a bit concerned...although they are clearly managing this growth well. Their balance sheet is super....and if you like this one, it may be for you.
Thanks again for stopping by. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement please feel free to email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
Wednesday, 7 April 2004
"Trading Transparency" JUNO
Hello Friends! O.K. so I couldn't STAND having a nickel in my pocket, and checking my account I DID have a little buying power (LOL) and my SCHN was only down 6% from my purchase....so what the heck, I picked up 100 shares of JUNO at $33.289. Why only 100? Well, for one thing, as such a TINY stock, this is NON-MARGINABLE so requires 100% or equity for the purchase...so will keep it small. And besides, I do not in GENERAL think it is a good idea to buy stocks in a declining market. If you follow the CANSLIM approach, which I admire but do not adhere to, that is the M in the formula!
Thanks so much for stopping by! Please remember to do your OWN homework on all of the investments discussed here and be sure to consult with your investment advisors!
April 7, 2004 Juno Lighting (JUNO)
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by. I hope that my commentary is helpful and stimulating in your thoughts about how to look at stocks for investment purchases. Please remember that I am an amateur investor, so PLEASE do your own investigations, I cannot be responsible for any of your investment decisions, and consult with your investment advisors.
The market is selling off today. I am sure that the Mid-East and Iraq situation is not reassuring the generally skittish investment crowd. I came across Juno Lighting (JUNO) which is going against the crowd and moving upwards today. I do not own any shares or have any options or leveraged postions in this equity. As I write, JUNO is trading At $33.50, up $3.15 or 10.38% on the day.
According to the money.cnn.com "snapshot"
on Juno, their business' "...principal activities are to design, assemble and market a full line of recessed and track lighting fixtures for use in new construction and remodeling of commercial, institutional and residential buildings."
On March 24, 2004, JUNO announced 1st quarter 2004 results
. Sales increased 16.9% to $50.9 million from first quarter 2003 sales of $43.5 million. Net income was $493,0000 ($.19/diluted share) compared to net income the prior year $13,000 ($.01/share).
Looking at the "5-Yr Restated" financials
on Morningstar.com shows that revenue has been slowly but consistently growing from $160.9 million in 1998 to $194.0 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings/share have been erratic but improved strongly the last few years from a loss of $(.71)/share in 2000 to a profit of $1.51/share in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow has not been particularly growing the last few years but has remained consistently positive at $13 million in the trailing twelve months.
Balance sheet shows, per Morningstar, just $1.4 million in cash and $67.3 million in other current assets, plenty to cover the current liabilities of $37.2 million but the long-term debt of $304.6 million, while not due in the next twelve months, is of some concern. Hopefully, with the free cash flow, this will be reduced over time. At the same time, with the free cash flow being consistently positive, this does not appear to be an excessive burden for the company in my humble opinion.
I like to check "Key Statistics" on Yahoo
for more information on the valuation of companies. This company is a TINY company with a market cap of $86.62 million. The trailing p/e is very reasonable at 15.84. Since apparently their are no estimates out there, we cannot calculate a PEG. The price/sales is also dirt-cheap at 0.39. Anything under 1.0 for the PEG or Price/Sales looks cheap to me!
Interestingly, there are only 2.60 million shares outstanding and only 900,000 of these that float. So the ability to trade this stock with adequate volume may be a problem. Only 4,000 shares are out short per Yahoo as of 3/8/04. No dividend is paid and no stock splits are reported on Yahoo.
This is an interesting stock with a very small float. Often, in my experience, some of these small stocks, if they can produce good earnings/news may end up being "rockets" as multiple buyers try to pick up shares that simply are just not available.
If we look at the Point and Figure Chart
for JUNO from Stockcharts.com, we see that this "rocket" has ALREADY blasted off! It is up to you if you want to hitch a ride! As for me, I do have a stock I can buy since I sold my EXAC, but with SCHN close to a sell, I would really like to keep my cash intact (LOL my margin level), and wait and sit on my hands for now!
Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at email@example.com and I will try to get back to you....I may just answer you in an entry in the BLOG!
Monday, 5 April 2004
"Trading Transparency" EXAC
Hello Friends! I guess I have ANOTHER nickel in my pocket now! Better take my time before spending it....at least five minutes (LOL).
Looking at my "Trading Account"
I realized that my Exactech Stock (EXAC), which is ANOTHER orthopedic firm, was hitting near a sell point. You may recall that I like to sell stock at 30, 60, 90, 120, 180, 240% gain positions....at least that is my PLAN.
Anyhow, moments ago, I sold 40 shares of EXAC at $19.95, that were acquired 1/2/03 at a cost basis per share of $10.78. This was nearly a 90% gain and my third sale of EXAC.
So far so good.
Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
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