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Wednesday, 21 June 2006
"Trading Transparency" HELX

CLICK HERE FOR MY PODCAST ON THE HELIX SALE AND I SING A SONG 'THE FOX' ;)

Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

One of the peculiarities of my portfolio management system is my approach to selling stocks. I sell stocks, as most traders do, on basically two situations: either on "good news" as my stock market appreciates in price in which case I am selling partial positions--usually 1/6th of my holdings; or on "bad news' which means that the stock has declined from a certain point and given me a sell signal.

I have three points at which I plan on selling a stock on "bad news": either at an 8% loss after an initial purchase, at "break-even" if I have sold a partial position of the stock one time (usually at a 30% target), or at a 50% retracement of the highest sale point on "good news". The last sale may be the most complex to explain. But it really isn't that complicated. If I have sold a portion of a stock at 60%, then I sell all of my remaining shares if the stock retraces to a 30% appreciation point. This goes on for all of my partial sales. In the case of Helix Energy Solutions (HELX) (the former CalDive), I had sold the stock four times (!), with the last sale being at a 120% appreciation level. Thus, my targeted sale of all of my remaining shares was at a 60% appreciation point. The stock passed that point in the last day or two and is actually moving higher today.

A few moments ago, I sold my 142 shares of HELX at $29.84. These shares were acquired 11/3/04, at a cost basis of $19.10/share. Thus, I had a gain of $10.74 or 56.2% on this sale. However, after the initial purchase I made four sales at gains, selling 50 shares on 2/25/05, 37 shares on 8/1/05, 28 shares on 11/22/05, and 28 shares on 1/12/06. Thus with four sales, at 30, 60, 90 and 120% gains, my targeted sale point on the downside was at 60% appreciation. Coming back from a few days away from the market, I realized that HELX had passed that sale point, and this morning, remaining under the 60% appreciation point, I went ahead and sold my remaining shares.

Fortunately, stocks are trading a little healthier today, and I may soon be able to add a new position instead of continuing to unload my portfolio at targeted sales. But in the meantime, I shall continue to strive to maintain trading discipline and follow the rules that I have established for my portfolio.

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com and please be sure to visit my Stock Picks Bob's Advice Podcast Site.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:30 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Wednesday, 21 June 2006 11:58 PM CDT
Tuesday, 20 June 2006
Gildan Activewear (GIL) "Revisiting a Stock Pick"

CLICK HERE FOR MY PODCAST ON GILDAN

Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

It is great to be back blogging after a few days off. Nothing much has happened to my trading portfolio. The market seems to be bouncing around in here looking for some support. Hopefully, the stock continues to move higher from this level.

Looking through the list of top % gainers on the NYSE today, I came across an old favorite of mine, Gildan Activewear (GIL), which as I write is trading at $41.65, up $3.05 or 7.90% on the day. I do not own any shares or have any options in this stock.

I first posted Gildan on Stock Picks Bob's Advice on December 2, 2004, when the stock was trading at $32.65. GIL had a 2:1 stock split on June 1, 2005, making my effective stock pick price actually $16.33. With the stock currently trading at $41.65, this represents a gain of $25.32 since my original post or 155.1%! (It's too bad that I didn't buy any shares of this one!)

Let's take a closer look at this stock and I will show you why it still deserves a spot on this blog.

1. What does the company do?

As described in the Yahoo "Profile", the company
"...engages in the manufacture and marketing of basic activewear for sale principally into the wholesale imprinted activewear market in Canada, the United States, Europe, and Asia/Pacific. The company manufactures and sells 100% cotton t-shirts and 50% cotton/50% polyester t-shirts, placket collar sport shirts, and fleece products in various weights, sizes, colors, and styles. It also sells its products as ‘blanks’, which are decorated with designs and logos for sale to end users."

2. Is there any news to explain today's move?

In a news story today (6/20/06), the company reported an acquisition of Kentucky Derby Hosiery, a U.S. hosiery manufacturer based in Hopkinsville, Kentucky. As the report noted:
"Based on Kentucky Derby's current level of profitability, the acquisition will initially be neither accretive nor dilutive to Gildan's earnings. However, once the integration of Kentucky Derby is complete, Gildan currently expects the acquisition to enhance annual E.P.S. by approximately U.S. $0.30. Gildan plans to undertake the integration process during fiscal 2007 and 2008."
On top of this acquisition, the company raised guidance for its third fiscal quarter, and indicated it should achieve or exceed analyst consensus of $.67. Previously, the company had guided at $.63/share. They also raised guidance for the full 2006 fiscal year to $2.00/share, up from $1.96 previously estimated. Both the acquisition, which was thought to be accretive for the company's finances and the overall raised guidance was enough to push the stock higher today.

3. How about the latest earnings results?

Last month, on May 4, 2006, Gildan reported 2nd quarter 2006 results. For the quarter ended April 2, 2006, Gildan reported net earnings of $31.0 million and diluted eps of $.51/share, with net earnings up 40.3% and eps climbing 37.8% from the $22.1 million and $.37/diluted share reported in the second quarter of fiscal 2005. Sales for the quarter increased 11.2% to $183.8 million, from $165.3 million in the same quarter last year.

Importantly, this $.51/share reported, exceeded previous company guidance of $.45/share. At the same time, the company raised guidance for the full fiscal year to $1.96/share, up from $1.90/share of previous guidance. (As I wrote above, this month, the company went ahead and raised guidance again to $2.00/share for the fiscal year.)

Thus, with this report, the company did what I call a "trifecta-plus", that is, they reported increased earnings and revenue, beat expectations, and raised guidance!

4. What about longer-term results?

For this information, let's review the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials. Starting out with revenue, the bar-graphs show a perfect picture of steady revenue growth from $330.4 million in 2001 to $653.9 million in 2005.

Earnings have increased steadily from $.01/share in 2001 to $1.01 in 2004 and $1.43/share in 2005. The company has slowly increased the float from 53 million shares in 2001 to 60 million in 2005. This is a 14% increase in shares accompanied by an almost 100% increase in revenue from 2001 and an almost 100% increase in earnings from 2002. In other words, while I would prefer to see shares not increasing, if the company can increase its revenue and earnings many times faster than the increase in shares, I can handle it!

And the free cash flow? Unfortunately, I don't see these numbers on Morningstar.com. However, if we look at the balance sheet, we can see that the company has $69.8 million in cash and $258.0 million in other current assets, giving them a total of $327.8 million in total current assets. When compared to the $112.9 million in current liabilities, this results in a current ratio of 2.90. In addition, the company has $64.1 million in long-term liabilities.

5. What about some valuation numbers?

Reviewing Yahoo "Key Statistics" on Gildan, we can see that this is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $2.52 billion. The trailing p/e is a moderate 23.08 with a forward p/e of 16.61. Utilizing the 5-yr expected earnings, gives us a PEG of only 0.81.

Using the Fidelity.com eresearch website, we can see that within the industrial group of "Textile-Apparel Clothing", Gildan is richly priced with a Price/Sales ratio of 3.4. This is the top of the group and is followed by Bebe Stores (BEBE) with a Price/Sales ratio of BEBE. Next is Guess? (GES) at 1.9, Columbia Sportswear (COLM) at 1.4, Quiksilver (ZQK) at 0.8, and Hot Topic at 0.7.

In terms of profitability, Gildan is at the tops of its group with a Return on Equity (ROE) of 25.7%. This is followed by Guess? (GES) at 24.3%, Bebe (BEBE) at 19.9%, Columbia (COLM) at 17.5%, Quiksilver (ZQK) at 10.8%, and Hot Topic (HOTT) at 7.9%. Thus, while valuation is rich by Price/Sales ratios, profitability is also tops in its group.

Finishing up the data from Yahoo, we find that there are 60.07 million shares outstanding, with 311,030 shares out short as of May 10, 2006. This represents 1.7 trading days of volume and doesn't seem significant to me. As noted earlier, the company last split June 1, 2005, when they declared a 2:1 split.

6. What does the chart look like?

Looking at a Gildan "Point & Figure" chart from Stockcharts.com:



We can see the initial decline in stock price from $12.00 in February, 2001, to a low of $5.50 in September, 2001. Since then, the stock has climbed sharply to a level of $53 in March, 2006. The stock has retreated to the current levels around $39, and appears to be moving higher once again. The graph appears to be consolidating at this level, but the strong upward move does not appear to be reversed.

7. Summary: What do I think?

Let's review some of the data that I have been reviewing from this company. First of all, the company announced that earnings should be higher than expected today and that they are acquiring a hosiery manufacturing company to add to their line of merchandise. This acquisition was also estimated to be additive (or accretive) to the financial picture. The last quarter was quite strong (and the company also raised guidance at that time), and the past five years also have been good for GIL. Unfortunately, Morningstar.com doesn't report the free cash flow, but with the solid balance sheet, this doesn't appear to be a problem.

The company valuation-wise looks nice from the perspective of a P/E under the growth rate (with a PEG under 1.0). However, the Price/Sales is a bit rich within its industrial group, although the profitability puts the company at the top of similar companies--again suggesting reasonable valuation.

Finally the chart looks nice.

So in summary, I like this company. I don't know much about the Tee-shirt and sweatshirt business. However, this company appears well run and is doing quite well.

Thanks so much for visiting! If you have any comments or questions, you can leave your comments on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Please also be sure to visit my Stock Picks Bob's Advice Podcast Site.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:37 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Tuesday, 20 June 2006 2:55 PM CDT
Tuesday, 13 June 2006
"Revisiting a Stock Pick" Diodes (DIOD)

CLICK HERE FOR MY PODCAST ON DIODES

Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

The last month has been very hard on my portfolio and I am sure very hard on yours! I stick to my trading strategy and shall continue to sell stocks that hit my targets for selling and defer buying any new stocks until I have a signal to buy, which means either I am at my minimum number of positions (6) and have sold one of my remaining positions, or I have sold a portion of an existing position at a targeted gain. My positions are still rather extensive, numbering numbering 16 positions, so this isn't likely soon. And I don't have any stocks near sell-points on the upside. So I sit tight and wait for the selling to conclude; monitoring my stocks and selling anything that hits a selling price on the way down.

In the midst of this negative environment, we can still be looking for new names in the market. There are always some stocks moving higher when the rest are moving in the other direction. It is my challenge to monitor these stocks and find possible investments that could be considered if I did have the appropriate buy signal.

Looking through the list of top % gainers on the NASDAQ today, I came across an old favorite of mine, Diodes (DIOD) which closed at $38.39, up $4.94 or 14.77% on the day. I actually do own 240 shares of this stock in a managed IRA account that I do not control or direct. I first posted Diodes (DIOD) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice on June 14, 2005, almost exactly one year ago, when the stock was trading at $33.30/share. The stock split 3:2 on December 1, 2005, giving my stock pick an effective price of $22.20. Given today's close at $38.39, this gives my pick from one year ago an appreciation of $16.19 or 72.9% since posting!

Let's take a closer look at this stock and I will share with you my observations on the characteristics that make this stock still attractive to me!

1. What does this company do?

According to the Yahoo "Profile" on Diodes, the company
"...engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of discrete and analog semiconductor products worldwide focusing on various end user applications in the consumer electronics, computing, industrial, communications, and automotive sectors."

2. Is there any news to explain today's big move?

Checking Yahoo "Healines" on Diodes, I noted a couple of stories regarding company guidance. In a story from the AP, the company is reported to have guided its second quarter revenue higher with revenue growth of 10 - 12% sequentially up from prior guidance of 3 - 6% revenue growth. As noted in the article, this works out to expected revenue of $81-$82.4 million up from the first quarter revenue of $73.6 million. This is also higher than analysts were expecting which was revenue of $77 million. In addition, the company expects second-quarter profit margin to increast "slightly" from 32.9% in the first quarter. Thus, not only is revenue to grow faster than expected, the margin on the revenue is also increasing which should also lead to even higher earnings. This was a win-win announcement that led to the stock moving higher in fact of a lousy trading environment!

3. How did the company do in the latest reported quarter?

Diodes reported 1st quarter 2006 results last month on May 4, 2006. As reported:
"- Revenues increased 51% year-over-year and 20% sequentially to
$73.6 million

- Operating income increased 19% to $10.8 million; pro forma up 36% to
$12.4 million

- Net income increased 29% to $9.3 million, or $0.34 per share"
These were nice results especially with the sequential growth reported. The latest news about increased guidance for the upcoming quarter combined with the last quarter's report is terrific!

4. How about longer-term results?

Reviewing the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials we see a steady pattern of revenue growth from $93.2 million in 2001 to $214.8 million in 2005 and $239.8 million in the trailing twelve months (TTM).

Earnings which were just break-even in 2001, grew to $.29/share in 2002, and $1.29/share in 2005 with $1.32/share reported in the TTM.

During this time, the company has rather aggressively increased its float from 14 million shares to 23 million shares in 2005 and 26 million in the TTM. This almost doubling of shares outstanding was still outpaced by the rapid growth in earnings and revenue with revenue more than doubling, and earnings more than quadrupling since 2002.

And the free cash flow? Morningstar reports DIOD with $3 million in 2003, $3 million in 2004, $31 million in 2005 and $27 million in the TTM. Clearly this trend at least recently looks nice.

How about the balance sheet? This looks great to me. The company has $99.5 million in cash. I like it when a company can pay off all of its libilities: short and long-term combined with cash alone. And DIOD does this with only $68.6 million in current liabilities and $10.0 million in long-term liabilities reported. What about the "current ratio"? If we add together the $99.5 million in cash with the $108.3 million in other current assets, this gives us a total of $207.8 million in total current assets, which, if compared to the $68.6 million in current liabilites, yields a current ratio of 3.03. Generally current ratios, as I understand them, are considered "healthy" if 1.5 or higher.

5. What about some valuation numbers on this stock?

Looking at Yahoo "Key Statistics" on Diodes, we find that this company has a market capitalization of $980.06 million which makes it a mid-cap stock. The trailing p/e is moderate at 29.22. However, the anticipated growth is so strong that the forward p/e (fye 31-Dec-07 estimated) is only 18.91. This rapid anticipated growth gives us a PEG (5 yr expected) of only 0.98. Generally PEG ratios, imho, between 1.0 and 1.5 are fairly valued. Those under 1.0 are "cheap" and should be considered a good buy from a growth at a reasonable price (GARP) perspective.

Using the Fidelity.com eresearch website for some relative valuation numbers, we find that DIOD is in the "Semiconductor-Integrated Circuit" industrial group. Within this group, DIOD is moderately priced with a Price/Sales ratio of 3.9. Topping the group is Marvell Technology (MRVL) with a ratio of 8.2, Broadcom (BRCM) at 5.9 and Semtech (SMTC) at 4.8. Priced cheaper than DIOD is RF Micro Devices (RFMD) with a Price/Sales ratio of only 1.6 and Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) at 1.1.

If we compare profitability by examining the Return on Equity (ROE) within this group we find that Diodes (DIOD) leads the pack with a ROE of 17.7%. Following DIOD is BRCM at 15.6%, MRVL at 11.7%, SMTC at 9.9%, RFMD at 2.9% and SWKS at 2%. Certainly by this measure, Diodes looks quite nice as well.

Returning to Yahoo, we can see that there are only 25.53 million shares outstanding with 19.21 million that float. As of May 10, 2006, there were 1.63 million shares out short, representing 6.5% of the float or 5 trading days of volume (the short ratio). I use a 3 day cut-off for significance in this ratio. This is just my own personal cut-off. If we do use this 3 day rule, the 5 days is a bit heavy on short-sellers who are betting against this company with the superb numbers. I suspect these short-sellers had a rude wake-up call today as the company and the stock climbed in the face of a really weak trading environment?

The company does not pay a dividend, and as I noted above, the stock last split 3:2 on 12/1/05.

6. What does the chart look like?If we take a look at the Diodes "Point & Figure" chart from StockCharts.com:



We can see that the stock after dipping from $16 in June, 2004, to a low of $11.00 in June, 2004, started climbing in a very strong fashion to a high of $43 in May, 2006. The stock subsequently came down to a low of $31 in late May, 2006, and has been powering higher since. The chart looks quite strong to me.

7. Summary: What do I think?

Needless to say, I like this stock a lot. Let me explain why and review some of the findings in the above review. First of all the company guided higher for the upcoming quarter. This was enough to drive the stock higher in a weak market. The latest quarter was strong with both solid revenue and earnings growth both year over year and sequentially. Looking at Morningstar.com, we find that the company has indeed been steadily growing its revenue AND earnings. They have been floating a few more shares than I like but even with this, earnings per share have grown steadily!

Free cash flow is positive and growing. The balance sheet is solid with enough cash to pay off all liabilities!

Valuation-wise the p/e is a bit rich but with the rapid growth expected the PEG is under 1.0. Looking at similar companies, we find that the Price/Sales ratio puts the company right in the middle of its industrial group. However, the company is the top in profitability as measured by ROE which is a plus. On top of this there are a lot of short-sellers which may be feeling the squeeze of a rapidly climbing stock. To top it off, the chart looks nice to me. In other words, the stock price is moving higher on the chart :).

Anyhow, that's my pick this evening. A stock that I do own some shares in a managed account. However, I picked this stock a year ago and the stock has subsequently performed magnificently. Hopefully, this can continue.

If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com or just leave your comments on the blog. Please also be sure and stop by and visit my Stock Picks Bob's Advice Podcast Site.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:32 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Wednesday, 14 June 2006 1:01 AM CDT
Sunday, 11 June 2006
A Reader Writes "...I come to you for advice on a stock."
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I had the pleasure of getting a nice letter from "Jeff in Indiana" who wrote earlier today:
"Bob,
Again I come to you for advice on a stock. This is in your field of medicine and is called Amsurg Corp. (AMSG). After doing my research, it seems to meet or beat the main criteria that you utilize in your stock-picking process. It also is going up in a lousy market, which has to be a bullish sign. Please comment at your convenience.

Thanks,
Jeff in Indiana"
Jeff, thanks so much for writing! It was late Sunday, and instead of writing out the response, I posted the response on Amsurg (AMSG) on my podcast!

I hope that is helpful!

Thanks again for writing. If you or anyone else have any other questions or comments, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com. Be sure to listen to this podcast and others on stocks I discuss on the blog as well as philosophy on investing on my Stock Picks Bob's Advice Podcast Site.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:56 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of March 14, 2005







Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I would like to apologize for the paucity of posts these past two weeks. I did a real number on my back and after missing some work, have been avoiding sitting at the computer. Things are doing a bit better, and I shall try to catch up with the blog!

One thing that I try to do on weekends (which I missed last weekend) is to review stock picks from a trailing one year period. I simply look through the posts from that particular week and list all of the stocks "picked" and the price that week and the latest price. This review assumes a buy and hold strategy. In practice, I advocate and use a disciplined sale strategy whereby I sell my losing stocks completely and quickly and my appreciating stocks slowly and partially. This strategy will of course affect the return. However, for the sake of review, it is simplest to just determine the return based on a purchase and hold strategy.

On March 16, 2005, I posted Career Education (CECO) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $36.35. Career Education closed at $32.94 on June 9, 2006, for a loss of $(3.41) or (9.4)% since posting.

On May 3, 2006, CECO reported 1st quarter 2006 results. Revenue for the three months ended March 31, 2006, increased 4% to $528.6 million up from $510.4 million in the same period the prior year. Consolidated net income came in at $52.7 million or $.53/diluted share, down (5.7)% from the $55.9 million or $.53/diluted share during the same period in 2005.

On March 18, 2005, I posted DRS Technologies (DRS) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice as a "revisit" when it was trading at $42.43. DRS closed at $50.44 on June 9, 2006, for a gain of $8.01 or 18.9% since posting.

On May 12, 2006, DRS reported 4th quarter 2006 results. For the quarter ended March 31, 2006, revenue came in at $645.7 million, up 79% from the $361.2 million in the same period last year. As noted in the news report, the large jump in revenue and earnings is attributable to a successful acquisition of ESSI on January 31, 2006. Net earnings for the quarter climbed 76% to $28.8 million or $.79/diluted share, (on 30% additional shares outstanding) compared with the prior year's results of $16.3 million or $.58/diluted share. The company also went ahead and raised guidance for 2007 earnings.

So how did I do picking these two stocks? One pick lost ground, and the other did well. The average performance for these two picks was a gain of 4.75% since they were picked that week a bit more than a year ago.

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com. Also, please be sure to stop by and visit my Stock Picks Bob's Advice Podcast Site.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:20 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Thursday, 8 June 2006
"Trading Transparency" Jos A Bank (JOSB)
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

A little earlier this morning I unloaded my 187 shares of Jos A Bank (JOSB) at $27.00. I had purchased these shares on 4/4/05 at a cost basis of $25.59. So actually, I had a small gain on these shares of $1.41/share or 5.5% since purchase. JOSB is having a HORRIBLE day in the market, trading at $25.64 or down $(11.49) or (30.95)% since the close yesterday. The stock virtually collapsed on a poor earnings report that came out this morning prior to the opening of trading with earnings at $.32/share down from $.38/share last year.

I don't need to know why the stock is down. It dropped to a sale point after passing through the 30% gain point. I have had two previous sales of this stock at 30 and 60% appreciation points, and the current price was below my sale point.

Since this is another sale on bad news. I shall once again be sitting on my hands with the proceeds as I continue to batten down the hatches in the face of this bear market. I do not know how much farther down it goes, but I shall let my stocks dictate my response and hopefully, we shall start seeing some good news that allows me to add a few positions.

If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com. Please be sure to stop by and visit my Stock Picks Bob's Advice Podcast Site where you can listen to me discussing many of these same stocks and issues I am facing along with all of you!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:40 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Wednesday, 7 June 2006
"Trading Transparency" Packeteer (PKTR)
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

Checking through my trading portfolio, I realized that my Packeteer stock (PKTR), which I had recently purchased, hit an 8% loss and I sold my shares in this position. I had purchased 400 shares of PKTR at a cost basis of $11.94/share. A few moments ago I sold these shares when the stock was trading at $10.86 for a loss of $(1.08)/share or (9.0)% since my purchase. Having sold this position at a loss, I shall not be looking to purchase another position, but shall instead be 'sitting on my hands' with the proceeds, waiting for a sale on 'good news' to add a new position to my trading portfolio.

Although slow and unwieldy, my trading system continues to direct me to move from equities into cash (or at least a reduced level of margin.) I will continue to avoid re-investing proceeds until I get to a minimum number of stocks in my trading portfolio, which would be at 1/4 of my maximum or 6 positions. I have a ways to go before that!

Thanks so much for visiting my blog. If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them right on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com. Please also be sure and visit my Stock Picks Bob's Advice Podcast Site where you can download an mP3 where I talk about many of the same stocks and issues facing us as we look to invest in the market.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:36 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Monday, 5 June 2006
Mikron (MIKR) A Podcast on this Stock
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

This evening, I put together a Podcast on Mikron (MIKR).

If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to drop me a line at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com or leave your comments on the blog. Also, please be sure to visit all of my podcasts at my Stock Picks Bob's Advice Podcast Site.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:52 PM CDT | Post Comment | View Comments (1) | Permalink
Wednesday, 31 May 2006
An Update on my Trading Portfolio!
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.
I try very hard to maintaing an almost absolute transparency on this website regarding the stocks that I actually own and occasionally sell or purchase shares. I have also been writing up my trading strategy on MSN at Jubak's Refugee Site under the topic heading "Timing the market". As part of that update, this is what I wrote this afternoon regarding my own actual holdings:
"Hello Jubak Refugees Friends!

As part of my long-term review of my trading strategy, I have been updating my portfolio performance every month or two. I hope that you all find this helpful.

This analysis is as of the close of trading May 31, 2006.

My trading portfolio now consists of 18 positions of my maximum 25 positions planned. Several stocks were sold during the recent correction.

The account net worth is $64,872.03. I have a 61.64% equity percentage. The market value of my securities stands at $105,250.17. The margin debit balance stands at $40,378.14.

Current positions (# shares, date of purchase, closing price, cost basis):

Barnes Group (B) (180 shares, 2/16/06, $41.29, $39.15)

Coach (COH) (102 shares, 2/25/03, $29.08, $8.33)

Cytyc (CYTC) (225 shares, 1/29/04, $26.28, $14.86)

Genesco (GCO) (200 shares, 5/26/06, $35.19, $34.40)

Helix Energy Solutions (HELX) (142 shares, 11/3/04, $35.46, $19.10)

Healthways (HWAY) (107 shares, 6/18/04, $53.14, $23.53)

Jos A. Bank Clothiers (JOSB) (187 shares, 4/4/05, $36.32, $25.59)

Kyphon (KYPH) (150 shares, 5/20/05, $36.96, $29.21)

Morningstar (MORN) (167 shares, 11/22/05, $42.19, $32.57)

Packeteer (PKTR) (400 shares, 1/27/06, $11.45, $11.94)

Quality Systems (QSII) (88 shares, 7/28/03, $33.22, $7.75)

ResMed (RMD) (150 shares, 2/4/05, $45.46, $29.87)

Starbucks (SBUX) (50 shares, 1/24/03, $35.65, $11.40)

SRA International (SRX) (320 shares, 2/1/05, $31.46, $29.82)

Toro (TTC) (120 shares, 5/25/06, $48.27, $48.36)

Meridian Bioscience (VIVO) (210 shares, 4/21/05, $23.79, $11.13)

Ventana Medical Systems (VMSI) (188 shares, 4/16/04, $47.46, $23.47)

Wolverine World Wide (WWW) (240 shares, 4/19/06, $22.94, $23.55)

Since 4/7/06, the following transactions have occurred:

On 4/11/06, I withdrew $5,000 from margin to pay for a 2006 IRA contribution. On 4/18/06, I sold my 113 shares of Sybron Dental (SYD) at $46.92. I purchased 120 shares of SanDisk (SNDK) the same day at $61.95. Also on 4/19/06, I purchased 240 shares of Wolverine World Wide (WWW) at $23.50, after selling 9 shares of Starbucks (SBUX) at $38.96. On 5/2/06, I purchased 300 shares of Dynamic Materials (BOOM) at $36.856. I sold 37 shares of Ventana (VMSI) on 5/3/06 at $46.49. I sold these 300 shares of BOOM on 5/3/06 at $38.174. On 5/3/06 I purchased 200 shares of Angiodynamics (ANGO) at $30.242. I sold 30 shares of ResMed (RMD) at $47.84 on 5/10/06. I purchased 240 shares of CNS Inc. (CNXS) at $24.395 on 5/10/06. On 5/16/06 I sold my 200 shares of Angiodynamics at $27.85. I sold my 200 shares of Dynamic Materials (BOOM) on 5/17/06 at $33.125. My 320 shares of JLG Industries (JLG) were sold on 5/18/06 at $23.67. I sold my 240 shares of CNS (CNXS) at $22.3701 on 5/18/06. My 84 shares of Hibbett (HIBB) were sold on 5/24/06 at $24.56. I purchased 120 shares of Toro (TTC) at $48.2699 on May 31, 2006. I sold 21 shares of Healthways (HWAY) on 5/31/06 at $51.73. Finally, I sold my 120 shares of SanDisk (SNDK) at $56.82 on 6/2/06.

As of the close of trading on 5/30/06, this trading account had realized net gains of $6,807.80, including net short-term losses of $1,201.65 and net long-term gains of $8,009.45.

As of the close of trading on 5/31/06, the account had unrealized gains totaling $29,039.29.

I hope this information continues to be helpful and I look forward to your comments and opinions. If you are interested in learning more, you can visit my blog at Stock Picks Bob's Advice or listen to my podcast at Stock Picks Bob's Advice Podcast Website.

Thanks!

Bob"

For those of you who are following my trials and tribulations, I thought you would appreciate my re-post of this data! Today was a better day and hopefully I am once again on the path of profitability!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 4:21 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Wednesday, 31 May 2006 5:19 PM CDT
Tuesday, 30 May 2006
"Trading Transparency" SanDisk (SNDK)
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

A little while ago I noticed that my SanDisk (SNDK) stock had hit an 8% loss and I sold my shares in the company. These shares were just purchased last month on 4/13/06 and have a cost basis of $62.04. I sold these 120 shares at $56.82, with a loss of $(5.22) or (8.4)%.

Since this was a sale on "bad news", I shall be sitting on my hands with the proceeds, waiting for a sale on "good news", that is at a targeted gain, to add a new position. It is this simple strategy that moves me slowly from equities towards cash when the market environment is as rough and bearish as it is today!

Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com. Be sure to stop by and visit my Stock Picks Bob's Advice Podcast Website where I discuss many of the same stocks and issues I have been writing about here!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 2:10 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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