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Friday, 6 July 2007
Wipro (WIT) "Revisiting a Stock Pick"

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on this website.

It is Friday and we have all made it through another week!  I haven't been writing up too many new ideas on the blog and I wanted to take a moment to write up a name that I have visited in the past, Wipro (WIT).  I do not own any shares of Wipro directly, but my stock club does own some shares of this company.

I was looking through the list of top % gainers on the NYSE this evening and noticed that Wipro Ltd (WIT) had made the list closing at $16.08, up $.78 or 5.10% on the day.  I first reviewed Wipro on Stock Picks Bob's Advice on October 4, 2004, almost three years ago (!) when the stock was trading at $20.86.  WIT split 2:1 on September 2, 2005, making my effective pick price actually $10.43.  With the stock closing at $16.08, this represents a gain of $5.65 or 54.2% since my original post.

Let's take another look at Wipro and I will explain why

WIPRO (WIT) IS RATED A BUY

What exactly does this company do? 

According to the Yahoo "Profile" on Wipro (WIT), the company

"...together with its subsidiaries, provides information technology (IT) services and products, including business process outsourcing services (BPO) worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Global IT Services and Products, India and Asia Pac IT Services and Products, and Consumer Care and Lighting. The Global IT Services and Products segment offers IT consulting, custom application design, development, re-engineering and maintenance, systems integration, package implementation, technology infrastructure outsourcing, and research and development services in the areas of hardware and software design. It also provides BPO services, which include customer interaction services, finance and accounting services, and process improvement services for repetitive processes."

This company is an India-based technology outsourcing firm. 

How did they do in the latest quarter reported?

On April 19, 2007, Wipro reported 4th quarter 2007 results.  For the quarter ended March 31, 2007, total revenue was Rs (rupees) 149.43 billion ($3.47 billion), a 41% over the same period last year.  Net income was Rs 29.17 ($677 million) a 44% increase over the same quarter the prior year.   These results beat analysts expectations.

What about longer-term results?

Looking at the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials on WIT, we can see that the company has been steadily, and strongly growing its revenue from $702 million in 2002 to $2.4 billion in 2006.  Earnings which were $.13/share in 2002, stayed flat at $13 in 2003, then steadily increased to $.32/share in 2006.  The total shares has been essentially stable with 1.39 billion reported in 2002, increasing to 1.41 billion in 2006 and 1.43 billion in the trailing twelve months.

Free cash flow has been positive and growing with $145 million reported in 2004, $276 million in 2005, and $287 million in 2006. The balance sheet appears solid with $878.2 million in cash, which by itself can cover both the $473 million in current liabilities and the negligible $11.7 million in long-term debt, and still leave almost $400 million in cash available!  Calculating the current ratio, we find Wipro with a total of $1,609.4 million in total current assets, which, when compared to the $473 million in current liabilities yields a current ratio of 3.4.

What about some valuation numbers?

Looking at Yahoo "Key Statistics" on Wipro, we can see that this is a large cap stock with a market capitalization of $23.46 billion.  The trailing p/e is a moderate 32.16 with a forward p/e (fye 31-Mar-09) estimated at 23.30.  The PEG comes in at a very reasonable 1.00.  The price/sales is a bit rich at 6.04 but I don't have any industry comparisons to truly value this number.

In terms of profitability, according to the Fidelity.com eresearch website, the company does well relative to similar companies with a Return on Equity (TTM) of 34.39% compared to the industry average of 28.42%.  

Finishing up with yahoo, we can see that there are 1.46 billion shares outstanding with only 270.6 million that float.  As of 4/10/07, there were 2.74 million shares out short representing 7.5 trading days of volume.

The company currently pays a forward dividend of $.12/share yielding 0.85.  The last stock split was, as noted, a 2:1 split on 9/2/05.

What does the chart look like?

Let's take a look at the "point & figure" chart on Wipro from StockCharts.com.  We can see that after an initial decline from $7.00 in March, 2002, to a low of $3.00 in May, 2003, the company has been moving in a 'saw-tooth' pattern steadily higher to a level of $18 in February, 2007.  The stock, at $16.08, is technically still moving higher with no evidence of a breakdown in the price appreciation pattern.


Summary: What do I think about the stock?

Avoiding any political implications of outsourcing (avoiding politics is always difficult for me!), this has been a great stock pick for me as the firm continues to show strong revenue and earnings growth along with price appreciation!  

Reviewing a few of the pieces of information reviewed, the stock was moving sharply higher today, the latest quarter beat expectations with strong revenue and earnings growth.  The company has been growing steadily the last 4 years with rather rapid increases in both revenue and earnings while still keeping a fairly steady hand on the outstanding shares.  Free cash flow is positive and growing.  And the balance sheet is solid.  There really is little not to like about the company.

Thanks again for visiting my blog!  I hope that you all have a nice weekend and if you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 6:22 PM CDT | Post Comment | View Comments (1) | Permalink
Thursday, 5 July 2007
Gildan Activewear (GIL) "Trading Transparency"

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I hope that all of you had a great time on the 4th.  


I was down at the Riverfest but didn't catch the fireworks as this photo shows.

But this isn't about partying.  This is about trading and managing a portfolio!  So let me get down to business.  Unfortunately, Gildan Activewear (GIL), a great company, and a strongly performing stock, hit an 8% loss in my portfolio.  If I were to review the purchase, I would note that the chart looks a bit overextended.  So this isn't a pan on the investment, it is a reflection of bad luck in entering a stock at the wrong time.  But I shall be sticking to my rules now and in the future as much as possible.  And I sold my Gildan Shares.

GILDAN ACTIVEWEAR (GIL) IS RATED A HOLD

So why did I rate the stock a 'hold' instead of a sell.  Because the story appears to be intact, and I am selling my holding based on the performance within my portfolio, not because I dislike the company.

Anyhow,  I sold my 210 shares at $33.11.  These shares were purchased on 5/21/07 for $36.13.  So this was a loss of $(3.02) or (8.4)% since my purchase. 

Since this sale is on "bad news", even though I am now down to 19 positions, I do not have a "permission slip" to add a new position.  I shall be waiting for a sale on "good news" which is a sale at an appreciation target, as a signal to add a new holding.

As you may recall, I sell my shares at 8% loss after an initial purchase, at break-even if I have sold once at a 30% targeted appreciation point, or at 50% of the highest appreciation sale percentage if I have sold more than once with gains.

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting!  Please feel free to leave a comment on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com with any of your comments or questions.

Bob 

 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:10 AM CDT | Post Comment | View Comments (2) | Permalink
Tuesday, 3 July 2007
Bolt (BTJ) "Trading Transparency"

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

A few moments ago Bolt (BTJ) hit one of my appreciation targets.  I had 150 shares in my trading account, and with the stock passing the 180% appreciation level, I sold 1/7th or 21 shares of Bolt at $50.52.  These shares had been purchased  1/12/07 (!) at a cost basis of $17.44 (!).  Thus, I had an appreciation of $33.08 or 189.7% on these shares.  As you probably know, I target my stocks for partial sales at 30, 60, 90, 120, then 180, 240, 300, 360, 450%, etc., appreciation levels.  Currently, I am selling 1/7th of my holding when shares reach these points.  

With this in mind, my next targeted sale on the upside would be at a 240% appreciation level or 3.40 x $17.44 = $59.30.  On the downside, I have been trying to sell stocks either on some fundamental bad news or if they should decline to 50% of the highest appreciation level at which there was a sale.  This way, I am continually pushing up the stops as the stock appreciates.  With Bolt having now been sold at the 180% appreciation level, on the downside, I plan on selling all remaining shares if the stock should decline to a 90% appreciation above my purchase price or 1.9 x $17.44 = $33.14.  Thus, I give the highly performing stocks in my portfolio more 'room to play' so to speak :).

Anyhow, it is nice to report good news once again!  The market is kind to me and I have been starting to pay down my darn margin which is far higher than I would prefer.

Currently I am at 20 positions in my account which is my new 'maximum' size for the portfolio.  If I were below 20, this sale would be giving me a "permission slip" to add a new holding.  At the maximum, I use sales like this to either accumulate cash or in my case pay down margin!

Thanks again for visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Site.  Also, take a look at my Social Picks account, where Social Picks evaluates my stock selections from the time I started with them which was a bit more than six months ago.   Also, check out my Covestor account which tracks my actual trading portfolio and compares it to other investors and the indices!

For those of you in the States, I wish you a very Happy 4th of July.  As we celebrate our freedom, let's wish everyone all over the world the blessings of peace and freedom that we enjoy for ourselves here in America!

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:18 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Saturday, 30 June 2007
Some Thoughts on Investing for a Saturday Afternoon!

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

Instead of the usual discussion of specific stocks and answering specific questions about investing, I wanted to take a moment to share with you some of my philosophy, some of the things I believe are important about investing and blogging.  

First of all a word about me.  I am a physician, so I don't support myself by investing, I am not an advisor, I don't manage money for anyone, I don't have any newsletters or salesmen or letters to send you.  I don't even really ask you for contributions.  I write this blog because this is my passion, my hobby, and part of my life.  I write that I am an amateur because I am an amateur.  I hope and believe that I am becoming a good amateur, but that is up to you to judge.

Honesty is part of my life.  It is integral to my professional life and essential to this blog.  I share with you my thinking and my opinions on stocks and my own trading portfolio.  When I buy shares I let you know, when I sell shares I let you know, when I make money I let you know, and most importantly, when I lose money, I share with you as well.  Because so many of you are my friends.  I share these thoughts with all of you readers and hope that you realize that what I do or suggest might not be right for you.  When I ask you to consult with advisers I really mean just that.  What I do might not work for you.  I am not positively sure that it will work for me.  But thus far it has been working well.

I am an investor.  I buy shares for the long haul. But I am prepared to trade.  I do this in as quiet as fashion as possible.  This is not about screaming and hollering and phrenetic activity.  I spend a lot of time observing the market and listening to my own portfolio.  I am not trying to be smarter than the smartest investors.  For I am not.  But I am trying to observe which stocks are climbing and among those, which might have healthy characteristics which might support further price appreciation.

But I make my share of mistakes.

That is why I have a portfolio of stocks.  Not because I am trying to diversify.  Because I use the same strategy with each of my stocks.  But because any particular stock investment may be a mistake.  And I am prepared to part with any and all of them.  I am not a buy and hold investor.  But I hope to buy and hold many of my investments for a very long time.

I have chosen to listen to my portfolio as I adjust my exposure to equities.

When stocks sell on bad news, that is price declines, I do not fight the market.  I 'sit on my hands' as I like to say, and wait for another signal.  A signal to let me know that everything is o.k. and it is time to buy.  I use my own portfolio for that signal as well.  I wait for a stock to hit an appreciation target and sell a portion of that holding and then at that time, buy another stock.

I do not think I can outguess the smartest minds in the market.

But I am willing to give them credit.  I will tell you that William O'Neil inspired my own thinking.  I like to talk about Robert Lichello, and will mention Paul Sturm and others.  They are my mentors.  They may not even know I have them as mentors, but I know.  And I appreciate the wisdom of others.

When I pick a stock to buy I purchase it off the top % gainers lists.  They have already been discovered by someone else.  I do not try to discover things that others haven't noticed.  

And I manage my holdings carefully.  I sell my poorly performing stocks quickly and completely, and my appreciating stocks slowly and partially.  This bias results in a portfolio of strong, performing stocks.

I demand the most of my holdings.

Will all of this work?  I don't know.  I am not even sure why I do all of this or why I write.  I love to share with all of you my ideas, my trades, my perspective on stocks.  I hope you all enjoy my effort.  Where this takes me I still am not sure.  I hope that all of this is successful for me and if any of you have adopted some of my techniques in a successful fashion, please drop me a line or leave a comment and let me know how it is working out.

Your friendship is greatly appreciated.

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:51 PM CDT | Post Comment | View Comments (2) | Permalink
Thursday, 28 June 2007
A Reader Writes: "How often do you get sucker punched with your method?"

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

Earlier today I received another great inquiry from Doug S., a regular reader and contributor of questions to this website.

Doug wrote:

"Bob: Saw your write up and have a thought to share/bounce off you. I
have found over the years that it's best to buy on what I term a
"trigger point" as it gives you an important reference point for the
immediate future. In my scheme of things which I've shared with you it is an earnings announcement(on 4/23 you would have purchased CLB at
about 88) about 95% of the time(news item on a rare occasion).

I notice you seem to use largest % price increase confirmed by your excellent tech and fundamental analysis. My question is how often do you get sucker punched with your method. I've found on my system about
15% of the time and probably another 10% where the following action is generally disappointing.

PS: disclosure: Purchased 800 NATH day just after my last e-mail.
Trading more liquid than i thought."

Thanks so much for writing Doug!  Your idea about "trigger points" to initiate a position or purchase of shares isn't too far from my own approach.  While you may be scanning the news for these earnings releases, I am scanning the lists of top % gainers for stocks on the move.  Often, if you review some of my past posts, the reason a stock makes a big move is exactly because of an earnings release that is viewed favorably by 'the street'. 

I am not sure how often I get "sucker punched" as you write.  I will tell you that if you go back about a month to my prior experience with MedTox (MTOX) you will see that I owned shares for a very short period of time, just a few days as I recall, until the stock declined to a sell point.  I guess that is what you would call getting sucker punched :).

In fact, every single one of my trades is on the blog for the past four years.  I cannot give you the exact entries, but if you scan through the blog you will find them under the heading of "trading transparency".  I do not know the exact % of these that I have had that have ended up in rather rapid sales.  I suspect they are 10% or less of my purchases, but that is, of course, just a guess.

Since I am doing my homework, examining more than a price move but the Morningstar.com report, the latest quarter, and some valuation numbers, I believe that sharp moves higher are often followed by further appreciation of the stock due to all of the other factors contributing to the attractiveness of that investment. At least that is what I am hoping for!

Wish me luck and keep me posted and keep on writing. 

p.s. I haven't looked at NATH, and do not own any shares of NATH nor do I have any shares of CLB.

Regards!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 12:17 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Wednesday, 27 June 2007
Core Laboratories N V (CLB)

CLICK HERE FOR MY PODCAST ON CORE LABORATORIES

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I was looking through the list of top % gainers on the NYSE this evening and came across Core Laboratories (CLB) which closed at $98.62, up $7.53 on the day or 8.27%.  I do not own any shares nor do I have any options on this stock.

However, I do like the numbers that I found when doing my 'homework' and thus,

CORE LABORATORIES N V (CLB) IS RATED A BUY

What exactly does this company do?

According to the Yahoo "Profile" on Core Laboratories, the company

"...provides reservoir description, production enhancement, and management services to the oil and gas industry worldwide. It engages in determining quality and measuring quantity of the fluids, such as natural gas, crude oil, and water and their derived products in the oil and gas fields."

How did the company do in the latest reported quarter?

On April 23, 2007, CLB reported 1st quarter 2007 results.   Revenue for the quarter ended March 31, 2007, increased to $155.7 million, up 13%  from $137.3 million in the same quarter in 2006.  Earnings came in at $1.04/diluted share, up 79% from the year-earli results and also increased 6% sequentially from the 4th quarter of 2006.  Net income climed 56% to $25.3 million from $16.1 million last year. 

The company also raised guidance for the full year in the same report. In that report two months ago they guided to earnings of $4.30 to $4.50, and revenue in the $650 to $670 million range.

Yesterday, after the close of trading the company raised guidance further with 2nd quarter 2007 results expected now to come in between $1.15 and $1.17, ahead of prior guidance of $1.05 to $1.10.  This would represent about a 66% increase year-over-year in earnings.

As was reported in the announcement:

"Core's anticipated quarterly results are due to even stronger than expected performances from each of its three operating segments. There is strong demand for the Company's Reservoir Description services, especially in the Middle East region, where Core continues to expand operations. The Company's Canadian operations, which generated 13% of the Company's revenue in 2006, are expected to post a strong quarter."

The company also raised full year 2007 guidace to revenue in the $660 million to $670 million range, up about 15% from the 2006 levels.  2007 earnings per share are now expected to come in at $4.50 to $4.70, an approximately 47% to 53% increase over 2006 results.  The street liked what it heard yesterday and wasted no time bidding up the price of CLB today!

How about longer-term results?

Reviewing the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials on Core Laboratories, we find that revenue has steadily grown from $331 million in 2002 to $576 million in 2006 and $594 million in the trailing twelve months (TTM).

Earnings during this period were less consistent, with a loss of $(.27) in 2002, increasing to a profit of $.60/share in 2003, then dropping to $.43/share in 2004.  However, since then earnings have shown strong growth with $3.07/share reported in 2006 and $3.53/share in the TTM.

Free cash flow has been positive and growing with $43 million in 2004, $96 million in 2006 and $91 million in the TTM.

The balance sheet is solid with $29 million in cash and $184.1 million in other current assets.  This total of $213.1 million in total current assets, when compared to the $83.4 million in current liabilities yields a current ratio of 2.56.  In addition, the company is reported to have $349 million in long-term liabilities and $275.2 million in long-term assets.

What about some valuation numbers?

Reviewing the Yahoo "Key Statistics" on Core Laboratories, we can see that this is a mid cap stock with a market capitalization of $2.36 billion.  The trailing p/e is 27.97 with a forward p/e (fye 31-Dec-08) estimated at 17.58.  Earnings growth is expected to continue strong as the PEG ratio is a very reasonable 0.83 (5 yr expected).

According to the Fidelity.com eresearch website, the valuation is a bit rich with CLB having a Price/Sales ratio (TTM) of 3.74 compared to the industry average of 3.65.  However, the company is also significantly more profitable than average with a Return on Equity (TTM) of 71.96%, compared to the industry average of 30.86% according to Fidelity.

Finishing up with Yahoo, we can see that there are only 23.91 million shares outstanding with 18.70 million that float.  As of 5/10/07, there were 1.3 million shares out short, representing 5.8% of the float or 4 days of trading volume (the short ratio).  In excess of my own '3 day rule', this short interest may well contribute to the price rise on good news today!

No dividend is reported on Yahoo, and the last stock split was a 2:1 split on December 22, 1997.

What does the chart look like?

If we review the StockCharts.com "point & figure" chart on Core Laboratories, we can see that the stock has exhibited a phenomenally strong chart since breaking out at the $12.50 level way back in July, 2003.  The stock has moved almost vertical the past four years.  I see no evidence of weakness although there is plenty of evidence that the chart may be over-extended.

Summary:  What do I think about Core Laboratories N V (CLB)?

As you might be able to tell I am practically infatuated with the company :).  Seriously.  This company reported a great quarter just a couple of months ago, raised guidance, and two months later, business is so strong they are raising guidance once again!

Longer-term, the Morningstar.com report is very nice except for some earnings weakness a few years ago, the company has shown incredible strength in delivering growth in both earnings and revenue.

They are solidly free cash flow positive, and have a solid balance sheet.

Valuation-wise, the p/e is a bit rich but the forward p/e is in the teens and the PEG is under 1.0.  Price/sales is average for the business but the Return on Equity is 'head and shoulders' ahead of its competition.  There are even a bunch of short-sellers waiting to buy shares and the chart is unbelievable.  Unless something bad is announced and I see no sign of that, the company appears to be moving full steam ahead!

Anyhow, there's a new name for the blog and all of you readers.

If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, drop by and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Website where you can listen to me discuss a few of the many stocks I write about here on the blog.  If you are interested in a third party review of my accuracy and the results of my stock picks, at least for the last few months, drop by SocialPicks and you can see what they say about my blogging.  Better yet, if you would like a review of my actual trading portfolio by a third party, visit my Covestor Page and see how Covestor rates my own actual holdings (Covestor only has records since June 12, 2007...it is quite new!)

Thanks so much for visiting!  Have a great day trading tomorrow!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:07 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Thursday, 28 June 2007 9:42 PM CDT
A Reader Writes: "My favorite timing is when a stock is on a nice uptrend...."

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I received a nice letter from a new reader this morning and I hope he doesn't mind me answering him right on the website. 

Ed A. wrote:

"Bob,

Just signed onto your blog for the first time.  My first impression is one of admiration for the work you have been doing.  I do need to spend some more time looking at your past work more thoroughly as well as running bye what other "stock" blogs are doing.

This is merely a quick email to comment on the timing of your MTOX buy.  The way I technically look at stocks, this timing looks good although I would not be surprised to see a bit of price chopiness as this stock gathers momentum for moving up.  My favorite timing is when a stock is on a nice uptrend but not quite so extended such as MTOX was at the start of 3/07. 
Ed A."
Thanks so much for writing Ed.  You are quite welcome to review the abundance of material on this website and I would look forward to some of your feedback as well.  I apologize for the amateur organization here on the website.  It is not a polished place at all, and sometimes it is difficult finding entries about certain stocks.  I find myself often just Googling "Stock Picks Bob's Advice" and adding the name of the stock I am looking at to find an old post or comment.  It would be better to have an index. 
I completely agree with your comments on MTOX.  Looking at the chart it does appear technically to be a bit overextended but I have not been relying on these charts to make a decision about a purchase.  I owned MTOX a month ago at a much lower price and got 'shaken out' as the investment hit an 8% loss.  I am sure that this purchase is also vulnerable to such a sale.  If so, it truly won't be the first time :). 
Here is the recent "point & figure" chart on Medtox  from StockCharts.com. You can see the 'break-out' in early March, 2007.  You are absolutely correct on that call in hindsight.


When I buy stocks with strong daily momentum, I am hoping that the momentum will continue at least a while longer after my purchase so that the stock doesn't immediately retrace its move higher and leave me selling the stock prematurely.  In general this has been a successful approach.  After getting a bit of a gain, I have a bit more buffer between me and my sale of my holding.  I generally can rest better with a stock at that point.

Again, thank you for writing and visiting.  I look forward to your future visits and await your feedback.  I value the opinions of my readers and look forward to their emails and comments. 
If any other of you readers, or Ed, have any other comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.
Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 4:48 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Tuesday, 26 June 2007
Medtox Scientific (MTOX) "Trading Transparency"

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I am often asked whether I "revisit" stocks that I have sold.  This trade today is an answer in the affirmative.  Sometimes I am "shaken" out of stocks.  Out I go.  But if the numbers are good, and the opportunity re-presents itself, I am willing to have another 'go' at it.

With my sale of Ventana earlier today, I was down to 19 positions and since Ventana was selling on "good news" I was entitled to replace the stock.  Looking at the list of top % gainers on the NASDAQ, I came across Medtox (MTOX) which I owned as recently as a little over a month ago, I saw that Medtox Scientific was trading at $28.67, up $1.57 or 5.79% on the day.  With the Morningstar.com "5-Yr restated" financials intact, with the latest quarter solid, I decided to venture once more into the MTOX world and purchased 350 shares at $28.5534.  Wish me luck!  I am now back to 20 positions and monitoring my holdings in this choppiest of trading environment.

Thanks again for visiting!  Please feel free to comment on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com if you have any other comments or questions.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 2:13 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Ventana Medical (VMSI) "Trading Transparency"

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website. 

Earlier today I sold my 1/7th position in Ventana, leaving me with 139 shares remaining.  After some thought, and seeing how flat the stock was trading, I decided that with the acquisition offer on the table by Roche at $75, the stock while unlikely to decline in the short time, was now more an investment in arbitrage rather than any investment strategy at all.  It was time for me to sell my remaining shares and identify a replacement in the portfolio.  While small sales when at my maximum will result in me sitting on my hands, since this sale will drop me back to 19 holdings, this 'entitles' me to replace that holding with a new name.  The nickel is already burning a hole in my pocket!.

These last shares were sold at $76.502, and had been purchased 4/16/04 at $23.47.  Thus, these shares were sold with a gain of $53.032 or 226% since purchase.

Thanks again for visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Website!

Bob

 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 2:01 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Ventana Medical Systems (VMSI) "Trading Transparency"

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any decisions based on information on this website.

A few moments ago, I sold 23 shares (1/7th of my 162 shares) of my Ventana Medical Systems (VMSI) at $76.83.  This represented a gain of 227.4% or $53.36 from my initial cost of $23.47 for these shares which were purchased on 4/16/04.  I had already sold shares four times previously at 30, 60, 90, and 120% points and the stock hid the 180% appreciation level and went right through it with the bid from Roche.  (They are making a hostile offer for Ventana at $75/share). 

I have given thought to selling the entire position, but meanwhile, I shall continue to follow my own trading strategy and see how this plays out.  If I were under my 20 position maximum, this would be a signal to buy a new position.  However, I am at 20, and this offers me the chance to sell some shares and pay down my margin a small amount.

I am considering selling all shares, but since this is not a done deal yet, I do not know if there will be other bidders.  However, with this huge gain, the risk is that the entire bid falls apart.  But I believe that is unlikely.

Thanks again for visiting.  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob 

 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 8:52 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Tuesday, 26 June 2007 10:00 AM CDT

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