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Friday, 1 February 2008
Cerner (CERN) "Trading Transparency"

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

A few moments ago I sold my 103 shares of Cerner (CERN) remaining in my Trading Account at $47.32/share.   These shares had been purchased 2/2/07, almost exactly one year ago, at a cost basis of $49.76/share.  Thus I had a loss of $(2.44) or (4.9)% on this purchase.  I sold these shares simply because after a single sale of Cerner at a gain (I had already sold 17 of my 120 shares of Cerner on 10/11/07 at a price of $64.20 representing a gain of $14.44 or 29% since my purchase), I push up my 'mental stop' (I still don't do this automatically) to break-even.  Cerner dropped below my break-even or cost per share and thus needed to be sold per my portfolio strategy.

I do not have 'permission' to add a new position.  But in fact I did enter a trade which I shall discuss shortly separate from this 'portfolio management' strategy.  

Since the company reported fairly strong earnings yesterday after the close of trading but revenue came in at $394.5 million, below analysts expectations of $411.8 million for the quarter.  Even though earnings at $.52/share came in ahead of expectations of $.47/share, the stock took it on the chin.  And I sold my shares as planned.

Going forward the company estimated first quarter earnings of $.43 to $.44/share on revenue of $390 to $400 million.  Analysts are looking for revenue of $404.91 million, so again, this is below expectations.  However, the company did guide earnings for the first quarter above analysts' expectations of $.41/share. 

Simply put, the market is unwilling to accept any imperfection in the earnings announcements because everything is so 'skittish'. 

So even though I have now sold my own shares, my outlook is relatively positive for Cerner and

CERNER (CERN) IS RATED A HOLD

Thanks again for stopping by and visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Covestor Page where my Trading Portfolio is monitored and evaluated, and my SocialPicks Page where all of my stock picks are also reviewed.  Furthermore, consider stopping by my Podcast Page where you can listen to me discuss some of the many stocks I have reviewed right here on the blog!

Have a good weekend everyone!

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:25 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Thursday, 31 January 2008
Interactive Intelligence (ININ) "Trading Transparency"

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice! As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

Fortunately my 'intuition' about the direction of the market this morning was correct and Interactive Intelligence (ININ) has continued to move higher.  Again with my significant margin level (lower than it has been though), and my desire to sell my 'excess shares' so that I could leave a position for my Trading Account, I sold 850 of my 1200 shares of ININ.   500 were sold at $16.14 and 350 shares were sold at 16.1901.  Thus, the average sale price of these 850 shares was $16.16. 

All of these shares were purchased this morning at $15.75, so this represented a gain of $.41/share or 2.6% since purchase.  Since there were 850 shares involved, this was a gain on this trade of $348.50 on this transaction. 

Regarding the remaining shares, since I like what Interactive Intelligence has reported, these shares will remain in my Trading Account as a new position.  On the downside, I plan on selling these shares should they decline to break-even (since I have sold these shares more-or-less once).  On the upside, I plan on selling 1/7th of this position should it appreciate to a 30% gain.

Even though I have sold some shares of ININ,

INTERACTIVE INTELLIGENCE (ININ) IS RATED A BUY

Thanks again for visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them right on the website or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Covestor Page where my Trading Portfolio is monitored and analyzed, my SocialPicks page where all of my stock picks are monitored and reviewed, and my Podcast Page where you can download some 'radio shows' that you can play on your mp3 player.

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 2:10 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Interactive Intelligence (ININ) "Trading Transparency"

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

Earlier this morning, seeing an 'old favorite' of mine, Interactive Intelligence (ININ) on the list of top % gainers on the NASDAQ, I chose to stick my toes once more into the trading world and purchased 1,200 shares at  $15.75.  This is once again my 'trade position' and I do not plan to sit with the entire 1,200 shares long-term.  If the stock works out for me by moving higher yet, than I shall be selling approximately 900 shares and leaving 300 for the portfolio.  Otherwise, I shall be unloading the entire position at the smallest loss I can tolerate.

As I write, ININ is trading at $15.85, up $2.26 or 16.63% on the day.  

I use the term 'old favorite' to indicate that this is a stock that I have reviewed previously.  In fact, I posted ININ on Stock Picks Bob's Advice on June 30, 2006, when the stock was trading at $14.27.  The stock has had a rocky course since then and has been under some significant pressure price-wise recently. 

Let me share with you some of my thinking regarding this trade.  Feel free to comment and share with me your own ideas as I am more of an 'investor' than a short-term trader.  

The market sold off yesterday after a spike in the Dow on the back of the .50% Federal Funds rate cut.  The market opened up today sharply lower, but appeared to be steadily reversing course and moving to the upside.  It was in this environment that I looked to my lists of top % gainers, hoping to find something first of all that I would be familiar with and next that had some fundamental news that might continue to drive the stock higher.

As is often the case, from my experience, it was earnings news that pushed the stock higher today.  After the close of trading yesterday, ININ announced 4th quarter 2007 results.  Revenues came in at $109.9 million, up 32% from $83 million in the same quarter the prior year.  Net income was $10.3 million or $.53/share which included a $(840,000) expense regarding stock options as well as a $8.1 million one-time benefit.  

Taking these one-time expenses and gains out of the picture, which is probably a very prudent move for analysis, leave us with a non-GAAP result of net income of $3.1 million or $.16/share, compared to last year's non-GAAP result of $2.1 million or $.11/share.  This is still a very strong report.

Checking the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials, we can see that this improved earnings/revenue picture was a bit of a turn around from what some year-over-year declines.  That is, while revenue has continued to steadily improve, earnings did dip in the last twelve months from $.56/share to $.41/share.  Free cash flow has been positive and the balance sheet appears solid. 

Reviewing the StockCharts.com 'point & figure' chart on ININ, we can see that the stock has been under tremendous pressure.  From December, 2005, when the stock was trading at around $4.25 until December, 2007, when the stock peaked at $31, the stock was at that time trading steadily higher.  Only since the first of this year, the stock has taken a beating along with the rest of the market, dipping from $27 to a low of $11 just days ago.  The stock appears to be 'fighting back' but overall the chart is not encouraging long-term.  It would be nice to see this stock trade over $25 and establish new support levels before feeling more confident that this technical picture has reversed.  Certainly the latest quarterly report is helpful in this regard.


With the solid earnings report changing the recent dip in earnings in an otherwise beautiful Morningstar.com report, 

INTERACTIVE INTELLIGENCE (ININ) IS RATED A BUY

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob  


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:45 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Wednesday, 30 January 2008
Dover Corporation (DOV) "Trading Transparency"

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I think that interview with the Associated Press went right to my head. 

Or perhaps it is just very dangerous to trade in these volatile waters.  Bullish advances turn on the dime like they did today and turn a profit into a loss in minutes.  I should have known better but after this "trade" turned south, I pulled the plug and took a loss.  Even though I like this stock.

In a nutshell, I purchased 800 shares of Dover (DOV) at $42.184.  With the market heading south and Dover pulling back from its large move to the upside, I started unloading my shares--selling 100 at $41, 100 at $41.01, 200 at $41.07, and 400 at $41.18.  That was a loss of a little over $1.00/share, or somewhere north of (2)% on these shares in a matter of minutes.

Yikes.

Let me explain briefly about why I liked Dover, and why I still feel

DOVER (DOV) IS RATED A BUY

even though I personally just lost a handful of change on this stock and I do not currently own any shares.

It still deserves a spot in my blog.

Dover made the list of top % gainers on the NYSE today, closing at $41.04, up $2.66 or 6.93% on the day.

According to the Yahoo "Profile" on Dover, the company

"...together with its subsidiaries, manufactures industrial products and components, and manufacturing equipment in the United States and internationally. It operates in four segments: Electronic Technologies, Engineered Systems, Industrial Products, and Fluid Management."


What drove the stock higher today was an outstanding fourth quarter earnings report.  Sales climbed 11% to $1.86 billion, exceeding forecasts of $1.8 billion.  Net earnings jumped 56% to $185.4 million or $.94/share ahead of the $118.5 million or $.58/share a year earlier.  Earnings from continuing operations came in at $.86/share 4 cents ahead of expectations.

Longe-term, the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials look outstanding with steady revenue growth, steady earnings growth, steady dividend growth (!), and a steady number of outstanding shares.  Free cash is solid and has grown in the past few years and the balance sheet appears solid.

Valuation-wise, checking the Yahoo "Key Statistics" on DOV, we can see that this is a large cap company with a market cap of $8.16 billion.  The trailing p/e is cheap at 14.18 and the PEG works out to an estimated 0.79.  Even so, there are 6.26 million shares out short as of 12/26/07, representing 6.8 trading days of volume.  The company pays a dividend of $.80/share yielding 2.1%.  The last stock split reported on yahoo was a 2:1 split way back in December, 1997.

Probably the weakest part of this analysis is the chart.  Looking at the 'point & figure' chart on DOV from StockCharts.com, we can see a very nice move higher from $22.00 in March, 2003 to a hnigh of $54 in july, 2007.  The stock broke down in October, 2007, and is now struggling to resume its upward momentum. 


In any case, I got 'whipsawed' and got caught in the violent volatility of this stock market that moved sharply higher on the Fed rate cut and then turned on a dime and dropped lower.  Yikes.

Thanks again for visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 5:36 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
My Fifteen Minutes of Fame!

Andy Warhol predicted that everyone would 'get their 15 minutes of fame'. 

Thanks to my friends at Covestor, my name was forwarded to Tim Paradis who writes business stories for the Associated Press.

I was interviewed as an "amateur investor" which I believe fairly accurately reflects my activity :).  

It was fun to get some publicity, but I hope I haven't used up all of my minutes.  

Maybe there are a few left.  Meanwhile, back to blogging.

P.S., you can view the article here.

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 5:32 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Tuesday, 29 January 2008
Silicom Ltd (SILC) "Trading Transparency'

Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

As I have blogged earlier, I purchased a large position of Silicom (SILC) yesterday and as the stock has moved higher, I have been selling off 'pieces' of this investment and now, with 350 shares remaining, I am leaving it as a new position in my Trading Account. 

Earlier today, with 900 shares left of my 2000 share purchase that I picked up yesterday at a cost basis of $13.67, I sold 300 shares at $14.25, and then later in the day sold 250 shares at $14.2101, leaving me the 350 share position which constitutes the new position.

If my SILC shares dip to my 'break-even' point or lower I shall be selling the shares.  On the other hand, if the shares appreciate to the 30% appreciation level, I shall be implementing my 1/7th of my position sale as I do with my other holdings.

Even though I was selling shares today and yesterday, this was just part of my 'trade'.  I am still upbeat on the stock and

SILICOM (SILC) IS RATED A BUY

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Covestor Page where my Trading Portfolio is analyzed, my SocialPicks page where my stock picks are recorded and analyzed, and my Podcast Page where you can download programs discussing some of the various stocks and investing strategies from my blog. 

Have a great rest-of-the week, and if you are in the Midwest like I am, drive carefully and stay warm.  There is a lot of cold air coming through.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 3:52 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Monday, 28 January 2008
Silicom (SILC) "Trading Transparency"

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

Continuing my brief update on my Silicom Stock (SILC) which I purchased this morning.  I have now sold 400 shares twice and just sold an additional 300 shares of SILC at $14.47 leaving me 900 shares remaining in my Trading Portfolio.

I would like to leave 300 or 400 shares longer-term if possible as a small position so that would mean either 600 or 500 shares remaining to be sold as needed.  I have been very lucky with this stock and maybe should have held on longer, but I am happy to continue to eke out small gains as this unfolds.

Bob 

 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:53 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Silicom (SILC) "Trading Transparency"

Just a quick update to the previous post.  I just sold an additional 400 shares of SILC at $14.306.  Now down to 1200 shares and holding :).

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:35 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Silicom Ltd (SILC) "Trading Transparency"

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

This market sure has a lot of 'mood swings' don't you think?

Just when I was feeling a bit blue over selling my WOOF stock for the second time since I have been an owner of shares, the market turns around and starts to rally.  Almost feeling the strength of the market move higher I thought I would take a look and see if there were any names that caught my attention.

Sure enough, Silicom (SILC) was moving strongly higher on earning news.   I had just reviewed Silicom on December 10, 2007, and you might want to refer to that review for information about the Morningstar.com report and valuation.

With all of that in mind, I took a big plunge and purchased 2,000 shares of Silicom (SILC) at a cost of $13.668.  With the stock trading higher this afternoon, I have already sold 400 shares of SILC at $14.1301, for a gain of $.4621/share or 3.38% since purchase.  (400 x $.4621 = $184.84 gain).  Nothing to sneeze at but I will take each small gain as I try to climb back into the black this year and move my performance ahead.

I would like to leave 400 shares in my Trading Account if possible, so I shall be looking to making three additional 400 share purchases----if I do this piecemeal as it appears I may do.  Anyhow, that's an update!

If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:32 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
VCA Antech (WOOF) "Trading Transparency"

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website!

I wanted to share with you a trade that I just implemented in my account.  I sold my complete position (210 shares) of VCA Antech (WOOF) at $37.74/share.  These shares were purchased on 7/27/07 at a cost basis of $41.04/share.  Thus I had a loss of $(3.30)/share or (8.04)% since purchase.

As you probably know, I use the (8)% loss as a point of sale of any position in my portfolio after an initial purchase, and not having sold any shares at higher appreciation targets.  Furthermore, I use this sale on "bad news" as a simple portfolio management signal.  (As if I hadn't been paying attention to what the market is doing!).  In other words, I do not plan to reinvest these funds.  Fortunately, my margin balance continues to dwindle along with my equity positions.  

I shall be waiting for some 'good news' signal to resume expanding the size of my portfolio with new positions.  I am now down to 8 positions in my trading account: ABAX, CERN, CPRT, CVD, IHS, MORN, RMD, and VIVO.  No position is immune from a sale.  So if the market continues to go lower, I shall update you on the progress in my portfolio.

As for WOOF, this is my second unsuccesful attempt to own the stock.  With my own sale of shares, I am thus reducing my rating:

VCA ANTECH (WOOF) IS RATED A HOLD     

Thanks again for visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Have a good week everyone!

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:20 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Monday, 28 January 2008 9:22 AM CST

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