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Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Wednesday, 5 November 2003
November 5, 2003 Beazer Homes (BZH)
I probably would be remiss if I didn't mention Beazer today. However, I again must stress I would be remiss if I didn't advise you, best Bob's advice I got, to check with your own financial advisor before making any decisions on the stocks and ideas I post. Anyhow, Beazer came out with good earnings today and several of the home-building stocks are participating in this sector rally. According to money.cnn.com, Beazer (BZH) "...designs, constructs, markets and sells single family homes in AZ, CA, FL, GA, MD, NV, NJ, NC, PA, SC, TN, TX and VA." BZH is currently trading at $106.34, up $5.17 or 5.10% on the day.

As reported today, via the NYTimes on the Web, from PRNewswire-FirstCall, Beazer reported that for the fourth quarter ended September 30, 2003, revenue of $1.0 billion up 15%, earnings per share of $4.18, up 38% vs $3.03 in the prior year, and record net income of $57.2 million, up 41% year-over-year.

Morningstar.com shows a steady growth in revenue from $977 million in 1998, $1.39 billion in 1999, $1.52 billion in 2000, $1.8 billion in 2001, $2.6 billion in 2002, and $3.04 billion in the trailing twelve months.

Earnings/share have grown from $2.66/share in 1998 to $11.70/share in the trailing twelve months.

Free cash flow has also been positive recently with ($23) million reported in 2000, ($31) million in 2001, $51 million in 2002 and $14 million in the trailing twelve months.

Balance sheet looks healthy with $15.4 million in cash but $1.7 billion in other current assets vs. $350.4 million in current liabilities and $764.4 million in long-term liabilities.

Looking at some key statistics from Yahoo.com, we find that the company has a market cap of $1.40 Billion, trailing p/e is 9.09 and forward p/e is cheap at 7.36. The PEG ratio is one of the lowest on this site at 0.53, and price/sales also cheap at 0.44.

There are 13.31 million shares outstanding with 12.50 million of them that float. Currently there are 3.07 million shares out short as of 10/8/03, representing 5.923 trading days. We may be witnessing a 'short squeeze' as some of these short sellers scramble to cover...? The company just announced a $.10/share quarterly dividend....with over $4.00 in earnings this quarter, maybe they could have been more generous??...no stock splits reported on Yahoo.

The numbers are GREAT on this company, like all of our other homebuilders we list. Unfortunately, like many other investors, I am concerned that this may be more of a cyclical business and we are late in the cycle. Home buying, along with home refinancing, appears to be very interest-rate dependent. If rates STAY low, then we may be in for continued growth, but if the rates start to climb???then we may see home sales slip significantly. Of course, that also is speculation.

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com As always, please consult with your own investment advisor before taking any actions based on what I have written here. Many of these investments and investment style may not be appropriate for all people!

Bob


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