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Saturday, 27 December 2003
"Six Months Ago" A longer term view from the week of June 16, 2003
Hello Friends! Thanks again for stopping by. As always, please remember to consult with your investment advisor before making any decisions based on information on this website as they may or may not be suitable for you. For those of you who are returning, I like to use the weekend to post a note reviewing how my picks have done. Last week we reviewed the week of June 9, 2003. This week, let's take a look at the week of June 16, 2003, when I selected 11 stocks. I will look at 10 here as the first of the week, Whitman Education Group (WIX) was acquired shortly after the post.

The first pick of that week was American Home Mortgage (AHMH) which was selected on 6/16/03 for $19.49. AHH (the new symbol) closed 12/26/03 at $22.72. This was a gain of $3.23 or 16.6%. Looking throught the news for the latest earnings report, I found a report on Yahoo from PRNewswire-FirstCall from October 28th when American Home Mortgage reported their third quarter results for the period ended September 30, 2003: Net earnings were $18.7 million a 46.1% over the prior year's earnings of $12.8 million. On an earnings per share, this was $1.06 vs $.76 last year, and revenue was up 65% from $73 million last year to $121.9 million this year. The company appears to be on track, but as with all interest rate sensitive issues, the market is skeptical that this growth can continue with the possible bottoming of rates perceived.

The next stock I picked was Dominion Homes (DHOM) at $24.50 on 6/16/03. DHOM closed 12/26/03 at $31.71 for a gain of $7.21 or 29.4%. The latest quarterly results were reported on Yahoo.com on October 27, 2003, for the third quarter ended September 30, 2003. This report was carried on BUSINESS WIRE. Net income for the three months increased 26% to $9.1 million from $7.2 million last year. Diluted earnings/share increased 27% to $1.13/share from $.89/share last year. Revenues for the quarter increased 10% to $153.2 million from the delivery of 844 homes, compared to revenue in 2002 same quarter of $139.4 million from the delivery of 724 homes. DHOM appears to be on track but is again an interest rate sensitive issue. (in my opinion)

Our next stock that week was Quest Diagnostics (DGX) at $64.28. DGX closed 12/26/03 at $70.30 for a gain of $5.72 or 8.9%. As reported on Yahoo.com, DGX reported their third quarter, 2003, results on October 21, 2003 from a story carried on PRNewswire-FirstCall. For the quarter ended September 30, 2003, net income increased to $120 million from $87 million in the same quarter, 2002, and earnings per share increased 29% to $1.12 from $.87 in 2002. In addition, the company announced an initial quarterly dividend and increased the stock repurchase (buying its own shares back) by $300 million. Revenues were up 15.3% over the prior year to $1.2 billion. This company is still doing great!

Next on the week, Factset Research (FDS) was picked on 6/17/03 at $40.39. FDS closed 12/26/03 at $37.44. This represents a loss of $(2.95) or (7.3)%. On December 16, 2003, FDS reported results for their first fiscal quarter ended November 30, 2003, as reported on Yahoo.com from a story on Dow Jones. Revenue climbed 12% to $59.3 million from $52.8 million last year and earnings were $13.9 million or $.39/share vs $11.5 million or $.33/share. The company appears to be growing fine but has not exceeded analysts expectations. Things appear to be "on track."

On June 17, 2003, Outback Steakhouse (OSI) made my list at $39.76. OSI has recently been hit by the 'mad cow disease scare'. However, on 12/26/03, OSI closed at $42.72, still ahead of our pick price by $2.96 or 7.4%. I would probably shy away from beef-related stocks in general at this point of time until the Mad Cow situation gets sorted out. However, this is your call and this might yet be a good purchase price. On October 23, 2003, OSI reported results for the three months ended September 30, 2003. As reported by Yahoo.com, picked up from a story on PRNewswire-FirstCall, OSI reported net income for the quarter of $37.6 million or $.48/share, compared to $32.8 million or $.42/share last year. Revenues for the quarter increase 17.3% to $685 million compared with $584 million last year. The company reported same store sales growth for the quarter of 1.2% for domestic stores.

Next on the list that week was Tofutti Brands (TOF) picked at $2.82 on 6/18/03. TOF closed 12/26/03 at $3.05 for a gain of $.23 or 8.2%. On November 12, 2003, TOF announced results for the third quarter ended September 27, 2003. The story was reported on Yahoo.com, from a story run on PRNewswire-FirstCall. Sales for the quarter increased 10% to $5.0 million from $4.5 million last year. For the quarter, the operating income was $269,000, compared to operating income of $374,000. tHe company had lots of explanations of WHY the net income was down, but this is a negative, in my humble opinion. Net income was $.03/share compared to $.04/share last year. This is not an INCREASE and I would have a hard time picking this stock again at this time.

LifeCell was selected on 6/18/03 at $5.78/share. LIFC closed at $6.051 on 12/26/03. This is a gain of $.271 or 4.7%. On October 20, 2003, LIFC reported their third quarter results for the quarter ended September 30, 2003. This was run on Yahoo.com from a story on PRNewswire-FirstCall. During the quarter, revenue was $10.1 million up 16% from revenue of $8.7 million in the same quarter in 2002. Net income was $506,000 up 47% from $344,000 last year. On a per share basis, net income/diluted share was $.02 vs. $.01 last year. The stock appears to be on track to me!

Macrovision (MVSN) made our list on 6/18/03 at $21.15. MVSN closed 12/26/03 at $22.79 for a gain of $1.64 or 7.8%. On October 27, 2003, MVSN reported results for the third quarter of 2003 for the period ended September 30, 2003. As reported on Yahoo.com from a story on BUSINESS WIRE, net revenue for the quarter was $31.2 million an increase of 33% from 2002 results of $23.5 million. Net income for the quarter was $7.5 million, or 366% higher than the $1.6 million in the same quarter last year. Diluted earnings/share were $.15/share vs $.03/share last year, a 400% increase. This stock still rocks!

Forest Labs (FRX) was selected here on 6/20/03 at $54.99. FRX was $62.35/share, an increase of $7.36 or 13.4%. On October 14, 2003, FRX reported their latest quarterly results for the second quarter, 2004, period ended September 30, 2003. as reported on Yahoo.com from a PRNewswire-FirstCall story, net sales were up 16% to $619.2 million from $531.6 million last year. Net income was up 29% to $184 million from $142 million last year. On a diluted earnings/share basis, this was $.49/share this quarter a 29% increase over last year's $.38/share result. This company appears to be on track!

Finally, (am I being too long-winded here? let me know...I just want to do a good job updating the readers here)...Laboratory Corp. of America (LH) was selected at $30.68 on 6/20/03. LH closed at $35.69 on 12/26/03, for a gain of $5.01 or 16.3%. Looking for the latest earnings results on yahoo.com, I found the October 23, 2003, results for the 2003 third quarter ended September 30, 2003. Revenues were $752.0 million, a 14.8% increase over the same period last year. Net earnings increased 26.1% to $85.1 million compared to $67.5 million in earnings in 2002. On a diluted per share basis, earnings increased 28% to $.59/share from $.46/share in 2002 same quarter. Things still look nice at LH!

So in conclusion, one of our picks was acquired so we will not comment on that one. For the rest of the picks, we had nine gainers and one loser for an average gain of 10.5% over the six month period. Not fabulous but not bad either!

Thanks again for stopping by. I hope you all have a great weekend. If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, please feel free to leave them right here on the website or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Happy New Year!

Bob


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