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Sunday, 13 January 2008
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of July 10, 2006

 

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

It is the weekend and it has been a relief to get through this trading week intact if not a bit bruised!  

I like to take advantage of the weekend to look back at picks from a bit over a year ago from this blog.  These reviews assume a buy and hold approach to investing.  In fact, I advocate a disciplined stock management approach that requires me to sell my losing stocks quickly at small declines and sell my gaining stocks slowly and partially at targeted appreciation points.  I utilize the 'buy and hold' analysis because it is easy for me to do, however, the difference in strategies would certainly affect the results in practice.

On July 11, 2006, I posted Perficient (PRFT) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $13.45.  This was a 'revisit' as I had first actually looked at Perficient on March 4, 2005, when the stock was trading at $9.33.  Perficient closed at $16.20 on January 11, 2008, for a gain of $2.75 or 20.4% since posting last year. 

Looking at the "point and figure" chart from StockCharts.com on PRFT, we can see the shapr rise in price from $3.00/share in August, 2004, to a recent high at $25.00/share in August, 2007.  The stock has recently been under pressure but appears to have found support at $15 and may possibly be moving higher once again. 

Let's take a closer look at some of the fundamentals on this stock before determining a 'rating'.

First of all the latest quarter--on November 8, 2007, Perficient reported 3rd quarter 2007 results.  Revenue climbed 20% to $53.1 million from $44.3 million last year.  Earnings per share climbed 50% to $.15/share from $.10/share the prior year.  Net income climbed 60% to $4.5 million from $2.8 million last year.  Non-GAAP earnings were $.21/share.

The company beat expectations of earnings of $.20/share and came in slightly light on revenue which had been expected to come in at $55.1 million.  More recently the company raised guidance on 4th quarter revenue figures to $61.2 to $62.7 million in sales from prior forecast of $56.3 to $62.1 million.

Examining the Morningstar.com '5-Yr Restated' financials, we can see that revenue is continuing to grow steadily, earnings expanding, shares are relatively stable, free cash flow is positive and growing, and the balance sheet appears solid.

Thus,

PERFICIENT (PRFT) IS RATED A BUY

Let's take a look at the other stock posted that week back in 2006: Kinetic Concepts (KCI), a stock that I have also recently owned in my own Trading Portfolio--but currently do not own any shares.

On July 14, 2006, I posted Kinetic Concepts (KCI) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $44.45. Kinetic Concepts (KCI) closed at $51.02 on January 11, 2008, for a gain of $6.57 or 14.8% since posting.

Looking at the 'point & figure' chart on KCI from StockCharts.com, we can see the stock trading in what I would call a volatile fashion with wide swings of the stock price from a $64 level in April, 2005, to a low of $23 in August, 2006, only to turn around and climb to a high of $66 in July, 2007.  The stock has sold off since November, 2007, to a low of $47 and is seeming to be forming a new are of support---possibly for a continued move higher (?).

Let's take a look at the latest quarterly report.

On October 23, 2007, Kinetic Concepts (KCI) reported 3rd quarter 2007 results.  Revenue climbed 17% to $410.9 million from $350.9 million last year beating expectations of $406.7 million according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial.  Earnngs increased to $59 million or $.82/share from $49 million or $.67/share in 2006.  This also beat expectations of $.79/share according to Thomson Financial.

The company also raised guidance for full year 2007 results to $3.20 to $3.30 per share from prior guidance of $3.10 to $3.20/share.  They also raised revenue guidance to between $1.58 and $1.60 billion from prior guidance of $1.56 to $1.59 billion. 

Finally, looking longer-term, the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials appears intact.  Revenue is continuing its uninterrupted rise, earnings, after a dip in 2004 and 2005 have resumed their steady climb, total shares are very stable, free cash flow is positive and growing and the balance sheet is solid.

With all of these findings,  

KINETIC CONCEPTS (KCI) IS RATED A BUY

So how did I do with these two stock picks?  Actually pretty good.  Both had gains and the average of the two works out to an average gain of 17.6%.  I can live with that :).

Thanks again for dropping by and visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Covestor Page where my actual trading account is reviewed and analyzed, my SocialPicks page where my many picks from the blog over the past year are recorded and also monitored, and my Podcast Page where you can download some mp3's of me discussing some of the many stocks I write about here on the blog.

I hope next week works out well for you.  And that 2008 is a good year both financially and personally for all of my readers!

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:08 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Sunday, 13 January 2008 2:35 PM CST

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