Hello Friends! I can tell you I MUST have some kind of blog-addiction. I do not know if there are any suitable self-help books, or 12 step programs to deal with it but here I am, sitting at my computer at 4 minutes after 12 midnight, scrambling to put in a post on a stock. Am I nuts or what?
Anyhow, PLEASE remember to do your own investigation of all stocks discussed on this website and please remember to consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions to make sure they are suitable, and timely for you!
I came across Trimble earlier today (yesterday?). TRMB had a GREAT day today, closing at $25.98, up $3.23 on the day or 14.20%. According to the Yahoo "Profile", Trimble "...provides positioning product solutions to commercial and government users in a large number of markets."
What drove TRMB higher today, as is the case with almost all of the stocks we look at, was earnings. In fact, Trimble reported 1st quarter 2004 results this morning. Revenue for the quarter came in at $156.5 million, a 23% increase over last year's $127.3 million. Net income rose to $12.8 million or $.24/share, a 100% increase from last year's $5.4 million or $.12/share.
Looking at the "5-Yr Restated" financials on Morningstar.com, we see that revenue has grown smartly since 1999 when TRMB had $271.4 million in revenue. This has increased ALMOST uninterrupted (except for a small drop in 2002) to $540.9 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings/share which dropped from $.55/share to a loss of $(.63)/share in 2001, has increased each year since then to the current $.77/share in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow has also been strong increasing from $19 million in 2001, to $26 million in the trailing twelve months.
What about the balance sheet? Morningstar.com shows that TRMB has $45.4 million in cash and $184.2 million in other current assets, which is more than enough to pay off BOTH the current liabilities of $96.7 million and the long-term liabilities of $100.0 million. In other words, the balance sheet, in my humble opinion, looks great!
How about valuation? Looking at "Key Statistics" on Yahoo.com, we find that the market cap is a mid-cap $1.31 billion with a trailing p/e of 34.27. However, the anticipated growth is substantial enough that the forward p/e (fye 2-Jan-06) is 21.12. The PEG, a measure of the p/e in proportion to the growth rate is fairly reasonable as well at 1.33, and price/sales not too bad at 2.13. I always prefer those numbers closer to 1.0 for a dirt-cheap stock, but these ratios do not seem to be overly inflated to me.
Currently, Yahoo reports 50.54 million shares outstanding with 49 million of them that float. There are currently 2.34 million shares out short as of 3/8/04, which is pretty considerable representing 4.628 trading days but only 4.77% of the float. We may be in the midst of a bit of a short squeeze with the current run up in price. It is interesting, although I am not sure it is relevant, that when I posted TASR at $29, the short ratio was over 5.0....so the whole thing DID start with a bit of a squeeze in THAT case.
No cash dividend is paid, and TRMB did JUST have a stock split, having split 3:2 in March, 2004.
What about "technicals?" Taking a look at a "Point and Figure" Chart on stockcharts.com, we can see that TRMB was actually heading slightly lower during 2002, and then broke through a resistance level in January, 2003, and has headed steadily higher since. The graph looks nice to me.
What do I think? Well, it seems that there is little NOT to like with this stock. The recent earnings and revenue growth are good and consistent with the past five years. The earnings have been a bit erratic, but have consistently improved at least the last 3 or 4 years. The free cash flow is reassuring and the company has a great balance sheet. The p/e isn't cheap, but then again the company is anticipated to continue its rapid growth and the PEG isn't too bad either. In summary I like this stock just fine. In fact I would even buy some shares, if this was a possibility.
Now you know I have to sit on my hands until I can sell a portion of one of my holdings at a gain...as I have done from time to time....just that right now is NOT the time!
If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at email@example.com