Hello Friends! It is Saturday, and one thing I like to do on the weekend is to answer my mail, and check and see how the selections I have posted here on Stock Picks Bob's Advice are doing. Please remember that I am an amateur investor so please consult with your own professional investment advisors before making any decisions based on information on this blog. If you have any comments or questions on this website, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com .
On August 4, 2003, I posted Mylan (MYL) on this blog at a price of $34.50. MYL split 3:2 on 10/9/03 nmaking my effective stock pick price actually $23. MYL closed on 8/20/04 at $16.89 for a loss of $(6.11) or (26.6)%. (Please note that for the purpose of review, I always consider that I would be using a "buy and hold" strategy for these picks, if I HAD bought them, but actually, I place an 8% stop loss, usually using a "mental" stop, and sell when it hits that level. Implementing THAT strategy would certainly affect my performance!)There has been a LOT of news on MYL recently, mostly involving an acquisition of King Pharma and interest in MYL by Carl Icahn. For the sake of this review, I will restrict my review to the latest quarterely result, which for MYL, was released on July 26, 2004. For the quarter ended June 30, 2004, net revenues were fairly flat at $339 million, a $7.6 million increase over net revenues the prior year. Earnings/diluted share came in at $.30 for the first quarter 2005, exactly the same as the first quarter 2004 results. This was not exactly a spectacular result and the street responded accordingly.
I posted Intier Automotive (IAIA) on Stock Picks on August 4, 2003, at a price of $16.50. IAIA closed at $18.441 on 8/19/04 for a gain of $1.941 or 11.8%.On August 3, 2004, IAIA announced 2nd quarter 2004 results. For the quarter ended June 30, 2003, sales increased 26% to $1.4 billion compared to $1.1 billion for the same period in 2003. Operating income increased strongly to $67.9 million compared to $39.9 million last year. Diluted earnings per share for the quarter came in at $.61 compared to diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of $.36/share for the same period in 2003. These were very strong results imho.
On August 4, 2003, I posted Atrion (ATRI) on Stock Picks at $34.70. ATRI closed at $45.40 on 8/20/04 for a gain during the year of $10.70/share or 30.8%.On July 29, 2004, ATRI announced 2nd quarter 2004 results. Revenues for the quarter were only up 1% to $16.4 million from $16.2 million for the same quarter last year. Diluted earnings per share, however, jumped 21% to $.87 compared to $.72 last year. Personally, I would like to see revenue growth along with earnings growth on all of these stock picks...so I am less than impressed with this report although the stock price is doing just fine!
Sunrise Senior Living (SRZ) was posted on Stock Picks on August 6, 2003, at a price of $23.95/share. SRZ closed on 8/20/04 at a price of $35.06 for a gain of $11.11/share or 46.4%.On August 3, 2004, SRZ reported 2nd quarter 2004 results. Excluding property sales in 2003 and 2004, earnings increased $.14 or 70% to $.34/share this quarter. Otherwise, with sales included, earnings dropped by $.01 to $.66/diluted share. For the quarter, revenue "under management" increased 10% to $437 million. The numbers are a bit confusing to me with all of the exceptions and clarifications, but apparently the "street" was happy with the result, and the stock has remained strong.
I posted DRS Technologies (DRS) on Stock Picks on August 6, 2003, at a price of $27.98/share. DRS closed at $37.52 on 8/20/04 for a gain of $9.54 or 34.1%.On August 5, 2004, DRS reported 1st quarter 2005 results. Revenues jumped 80% to $300.7 million. Net earnings came in at $11.8 million or $.43/share compared with $7.3 million or $.32/share the prior year. DRS went ahead and RAISED its outlook for fiscal 2005 due to an acquisition and new orders. This was a very strong earnings report imho.
Pulte Homes (PHM) was posted on Stock Picks on August 6, 2003, at a price of $63.86. PHM split 2:1 on 1/5/04, and as a result, the effective pick price was actually $31.93. PHM closed at $58.76 on 8/20/04 for a gain of $26.83 or 84%.On July 26, 2004, PHM reported 2nd quarter 2004 resultsRevenues from domestic homebuilding settlements increased 30% to $2.4 billion. There was a 9% increase in the average selling price to $282,000, combined with a 19% increase in home closings to 8,480 homes. Net income came in at $187.7 million, a 54% increase over the $122.0 million the prior year. Earnings per diluted share were $1.45 for the quarter, a 48% increase over the prior year earnings of $.98/share. In addition, the company RAISED EARNINGS GUIDANCE (I always like to put THAT in caps!) for continuing operations in 2004 to the range of $7.80 to $8.00/diluted share. This appears to really be a terrific report from PHM. Again, even as I commented on my first post, I am concerned about climbing interest rates....but I would not let my phobias interfere with owning this or any other stock....just have to stick with the rules!
On August 6, 2003, I posted Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) on Stock Picks at $49.79/share. ZMH closed on 8/20/04 at $73.23/share for a gain of $23.44 or 47.1%.On July 28, 2004, ZMH announced 2nd quarter 2004 results. Earnings came in at $116.3 million, or $.47/diluted share, compared with $89 million or $.45/diluted share the prior year. Excluding acquisition related items, they actually came in at $.58/share (analysts were looking for $.55). Nicely, the company RAISED GUIDANCE for the full year, projecting net earnings of $1.86 to $1.90/share and $2.26 to $2.30 on an "adjusted basis". Analysts WERE looking for $2.25/share on an adjusted basis. The stock has been a solid performer in the past, and it appears that the "street" still embraces its current outlook.
I posted FTI Consulting (FCN) on Stock Picks at $21.90 on August 6, 2003. FCN closed at $17.30 on 8/20/04 for a loss of $(4.60) or (21)%.On July 28, 2004, FCN announced 2nd quarter 2004 results. For the quarter ended June 30, 2004, revenues were $107.4 million, compared with $94.5 million from continuing operations for the prior year same quarter, an increase of 13.7%. Income from continuing operations was $12.8 million compared with $18.5 million the prior year, a DECREASE of 30.8%. Earnings per diluted share came in at $.30 compared with $.44 from continuing operations the prior year, a decrease of 31.8%. These are less than exciting results, and as you can see, the stock price has performed accordingly!
On August 7, 2003, I posted Jos. A. Banks (JOSB) on Stock Picks at $44.16. JOSB split 3:2 on 2/19/04 for a resultand stock pick price of $29.44 and then split 5:4 on 8/19/04 for a subsequent effective price of $23.55. JOSB closed at $27.27 on 8/20/04 for a gain of $3.72 or 15.8%.On May 25, 2004, JOSB announced 1st quarter 2004 results. For the quarter ending January 29, 2004, total sales increased 28.3% to $79.9 million from $62.3 million the prior year. Comparable store sales were up 13.6% (a very strong number), with combined catalog and internet sales up 18.7% for the quarter. Earnings per share were $.47 vs $.20/share the prior year, an increase of 135%. In addition, the company RAISED GUIDANCE, with earnings expected to come in at $23.3 million compared with $16.6 million in 2003. This is really a GREAT report, and it will be interesting to see what happens for the 2nd quarter report which should be out in the next few days!
On August 8, 2003, Emulex (ELX) was posted on Stock Picks at $22.46. ELX closed at $10.30 on 8/20/04 for a loss of $(12.16)or (54.1)%.On August 5, 2004, ELX reported 4th quarter 2004 results. Revenue rose 6% to $86.4 million from $81.8 million the prior year, however, this was 13% lower than the previous quarter! Net income came in at $10.6 million or $.13/share down 42% (!) from $18.4 million or $.22/share the prior year. These were definitely NOT very good results, and you can see the effects of this on the stock price!
I posted eSpeed (ESPD) on August 8, 2003, at $18.98/share. ESPD closed at $10.75/share on 8/20/04 for a loss of $(8.23) or (43.4)%.On August 5, 2004, ESPD announced 2nd quarter 2004 results. Total revenue for the second quarter came in at $42.8 million, compared with $39.1 million the prior year. Net income was $9.0 million or $.16/diluted share compared with $9.1 million or $.16/share last year. This just doesn't show the growth in revenue and earnings that I like to see in this blog! And you can see how poorly the stock price has performed!
Well, that was the week. PHEW. Finally got THAT out of the way! Well how did we do? Of the eleven stocks picked that week, I had seven gainers and four losers for an average gain of 11.35%. Not really too bad a performance overall! Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com .
Bob