Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by. I hope that your Thanksgiving went well and that you did not eat as much of the stuffing and cranberries as I did! What I like to do on weekends around here is to look back about a year and see how the selections that were posted on this blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice have performed since they were listed. Currently, I am up to the week of October 13, 2003, having reviewed October 6, 2003, last week. The performance of the selections assumes a buy and hold strategy. I do NOT currently use a buy and hold approach in my own Trading Portfolio. As you may read elsewhere, I sell a stock if it drops 8% and sell at other points if the stock appreciates. However, for the sake of illustration, I review the picks and see what has happened to them since posting. As always, please remember that I am an AMATEUR investor, so PLEASE consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website to make sure such decisions are appropriate, timely, and likely to be profitable for you! If you have any questions or comments about this or anything else on the website, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com .
On October 13, 2003, I posted International Game Technology (IGT) on Stock Picks at $30.17. IGT closed on 11/26/04 at $35.51 for a gain of $5.34 or 17.7%. On November 2, 2004, IGT reported 4th quarter 2004 results. Revenue for the quarter increased to $621.7 million from $547.5 million the prior year. However, net income declined to %54.3 million from $108.3 million the prior year, and on a fully diluted basis, this came out to $.15/share in 2004, vs $.31/share in 2003. Overall, I like increasing revenue, but prefer to see increasing earnings in line with it!
On October 14, 2003, I posted BioLase (BLTI) on Stock Picks at a price of $13.47. BLTI closed on 11/26/04 at $8.95 for a loss of $(4.52) or (35.6)%.On October 27, 2004, BLTI announced 3rd quarter 2004 results. For the quarter ended September 30, 2004, net sales came in at $12.0 million down from $13.5 million for the same period in 2003. Net loss for the third quarter was ($1.2) million or ($.05)/diluted share compared with net income last year of $2.6 million or $.11/diluted share. This reduction of sales, along with a shift to a loss from a profit explains the dismal performance of the stock!
I posted aQuantive (AQNT) on Stock Picks on 10/14/03 at a price of $13.34. AQNT closed on 11/26/04 at $8.55 for a loss of ($4.79) or (35.9)%.On November 4, 2004, AQNT reported 3rd quarter 2004 results. Revenue was up 201% to $46.7 million. Net income for the quarter was $3.5 million or $.05/share, compared with $3.9 million or $.06/diluted share in 2003. Thus, in spite of the 200% increase in revenue, earnings were actually DOWN 16%. Not exactly my cup of tea. In addition, AQNT LOWERED guidance for the following quarter and fiscal 2004 in the same announcement. As you may know, INCREASED guidance is a key to stock appreciation. Thus, the mediocre stock performance, imho.
On October 16, 2003, I posted Pharmaceutical Product Development (PPDI) on Stock Picks at a price of $29.16. PPDI closed at $42.84 on 11/26/04 for a gain of $13.68 or 46.9%.On October 13, 2004, PPDI reported 3rd quarter 2004 results. Net revenue for the quarter was up 20.2% over net revenue of $179.5 million for the same quarter in 2003. Earnings per diluted share were unchanged at $.44/share both year, but in 2003 included effects of gain on sale of assets, and other items, totalling $.03/share, thus this year's result was a little better than reported on closer examination. Overall, this appears to be a solid report, and the stock price has reflected it.
Finally, on October 17, 2003, I posted Image Sensing Systems (ISNS) on Stock Picks at $10.00/share. ISNS closed at $13.92 on 11/26/04 for a gain of $3.92 or 39.2% since the posting.On October 20, 2004, ISNS reported 3rd quarter 2004 results. Revenue for the quarter came in at $3.08 million, up from $2.67 million last year. Earnings per diluted share came in at $.26/share, up from $.19/diluted share the prior year. These were solid results and the stock price has also performed in line with this.
So how did we do? For the week of October 13, 2003, I had two losing stocks: BLTI, and AQNT, and three gainers: IGT, PPDI, ISNS. An average of the performance for the five results in an average gain of 6.5%. Nothing much to write home about I guess, but at least a gain for the year!
So thanks again for stopping by! As a thought for all of that holiday overeating we all seem to do, I offer you Speedy, that famous Alka Seltzer fellow who has disappeared from modern culture but who was a great childhood "friend" of mine! Whatever happened to all of those great icons? If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to leave them right here on the blog under "comments" or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com . Good-luck with all of your holiday shopping and have a safe and healthy weekend!Bob