"How are we doing?" A look back on the week of August 25, 2003
As I like to do on weekends, hopefully before gathering my kids and taking them off to Sunday School, I like to reminisce. Not too far back but look back about six or seven weeks and see if 'our system is working'. As I have mentioned before, if I am able to hang in there with this website, we will soon start looking back six months to check our performance....and really need to think about updating our entries....my entries...anyhow, let's look at August 25, 2003. (Last week we checked out the August 18th week!.)

On August 25, 2003, I picked Electronic Clearing House (ECHO) at $6.36. ECHO closed 10/10/03 at $7.76. This was a great performance with an increase of $1.40 or 22.0%. Also on 8/25/03, I picked Invivo (SAFE) at $20.39. Now SAFE closed 10/10/03 at $15.67 which doesn't look like it was doing well, however, SAFE had a 3:2 split on 9/12/03, and the $15.67 price needs to be adjusted to an effective price of $23.51 meaning a gain of $3.12 or 15.3%.

August 26, 2003, this day I picked only Engineered Support System (EASI) at $54.37. EASI closed on 10/10/03 at $63.50. This was a gain of $9.13 or 16.8%.

On August 27, 2003, my only pick was NetFlix (NFLX) at $32.66. NFLX closed on 10/10/03 at $44.65. Another terrific performance this past six weeks, NFLX has gained $11.99 or 36.7%.

I was busier on August 28, 2003, with 3 picks: SupportSoft (SPRT), Quiksilver (ZQK), and Michaels Stores (MIK). SupportSoft was selected at $8.94. SPRT closed 10/10/03 at $12.24. This is a gain of $3.30 or 36.9%. ZQK closed at $17.90 on 10/10/03. I posted it when it was trading at $18.42. This was a LOSS of ($.52) during this period or (2.8%). MIK was selected at $43.01. MIK closed 10/10/03 at $45.75. This is a gain of $2.74 or 6.4%.

The final pick of the week was Wilson Greatbatch (GB) which was picked on 8/29/03 at $39.24. GB closed 10/10/03 at $36.88. This was a loss of ($2.36) or (6.0%).

Thus for the week which we selected eight stocks we had six with gains ranging from 6.74% to 36.9%, and two with losses of (2.8%) and (6.0%). The average performance for this stellar week was a gain of 15.7%. This is certainly one of our better weeks we have examined...so no claim we can do this every six weeks...but it is interesting to note! Of these stocks, the only stock that I personally own is NetFlix which I have some shares in a managed retirement account.

I hope you had a great weekend and come back and visit here next week!

Bob

October 10, 2003 Infosys Technologies Ltd (ADR) (INFY)
Welcome to my website. Or Welcome Back as the case may be. Most of the stocks I pick are American companies as I do not undeerstand and do not have access as easily to many foreign corporations...however, we DID post SOHU here, and now here we have an Indian corporation. I recently had trouble with my HP computer and without realizing it was transferred over to India for online assistance....the service was good and although I still didn't get the problem fixed....that is another story. Anyhow, many technology firms, and as I recently read in the Wall Street Journal, many investment banking houses are using the highly trained, low-cost (by American standards) professionals, are meeting with success.

According to money.cnn.com, INFY "...an India-based IT services company, utilizes an extensive offshore infrastructure to provide managed software solutions to clients worldwide." INFY is currently trading at $77.40 up $5.14 or 7.11% on the day.

We are now back in the earnings-reports-season, and INFY reported results today for the quarter ended September 30, 2003. Revenues for the quarter were $250.7 million, up 38.21% from $181.45 million for the same quarter last year. Net income was $64.71 million or $.49/share compared to $46.7 million or $.36/share last year.

Morningstar.com shows an explosive revenue growth picture from $39.6 million in 1997, $68.3 million in 1998, $121.0 million in 1999, $203.4 million in 2000, $413.9 million in 2001, and extrapolating the 2003 results, we are at a $1 billion/year revenue rate. The results for 2002 are not present on Morningstar.

Earnings on Morningstar grew from $.07/share in 1997 to $.99/share in 2001. Currently, the company is at an almost $2.00/share earnings rate.

Free cash flow is also limited to 2001 results: $24 million in 1999, $35 million in 2000, $41 million in 2001. I am sure this is improving as well, but frankly, I would rather have these numbers from Morningstar.com...they seem to be a bit behind on the foreign companies.

Assets and liabilities as of the listing of the Morningstar.com numbers are excellent with $124.1 million in cash, $82.7 million in other current assets vs $30.6 million in current liabilities and no long-term liabilities at all.

On Yahoo.com, we find that the trailing p/e is 45.45, PEG ratio more reasonable at 1.82, price/sales high at 11.53. There are 132.5 million shares outstanding and 100.60 million of them that float for a market cap of 10.30 Billion. This is NO small company! Currently there are 1.03 million shares out short as of 9/8/03 representing 3.041 trading days. The company pays a small dividend of $.31/share for a yield of 0.43%.

I do not own any shares of this company, but I believe that this Indian corporation is executing well with fabulous revenue and earnings growth, nice free cash flow (at least as far as OUR numbers show), but is not a value investment, that is may be a good value considering its growth, but the p/e, and p/sales ratio are high. I do like this investment and expect it to continue to do well in the future.

Bob

October 9, 2003 NetGear (NTGR)
Hello friends! How about a quick one for you to look at? NetGear (NTGR)had a great day today closing at $17.88 up $1.94 or 12.17% on the day. According to money.cnn.com, NetGear "...designs, develops and markets networking products that address the specific needs of small businesses and homes."

On September 12, 2003, NTGR reported their second quarter 2003 results for the period ended June 29, 2003. Net revenue increased 24% to $69.0 million from $55.5 million last year. Net income increased 528% (!!!) to $11.5 million from $1.8 million last year in the same quarter. On a per share basis, this was $.48/diluted share in 2003 vs $.09/diluted share in 2002. These are very nice results!

Morningstar.com shows a rapid growth in revenue from no meaningful revenue in 1998 to $111.9 million in 1999, $176.7 million in 2000, $192.4 million in 2001, $237.3 million in 2002 and $259.5 million in the trailing twelve months. Net income which WAS negative or NIL the prior years turned positive at $9 million in the trailing twelve months.

Free cash flow was also negative in 2000 at ($15) million, turned positive in 2001 at $3 million, $12 million for 2002, and $9 million in the trailing twelve months.

The company's balance sheet shows a little more debt than I would like but with the positive free cash flow and rapid growth in revenue, this probably will not be a problem. Per Morningstar.com, they have $21.8 million in cash and $75.8 million in other current assets, enough to cover the current liabilities of $82.0 million, but not enough to completely cover the long-term liabilities of $48 million as well.

NetGear has a market cap of $505.99 million per Yahoo.com, and sports a reasonable trailing p/e of 20.18. PEG ratio a little high at 2.18 and price/sales not too bad at 1.65.

Currently, Yahoo reports 28.3 million shares outstanding with 15.00 million of them that float. There are 401,000 shares out short as of 9/8/03, representing 1.084 trading days. No dividend is paid.

This is an interesting stock that jumped today on an upgrade from Lehman....they have a terrific record of increasing revenue growth, cash flow and now turning profitable as well. Assets/liabilities could be a bit better...but if you would like to get into the networking area with a high-tech firm, this might just be the answer for you. I currently do not own any shares.

If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, you can reach me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob

October 8, 2003 Ceradyne, Inc. (CRDN)
Hello Friends! Thanks for stopping by. Please feel free to contact me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement. By the way, I believe if you click on the 'no comments' words below each post, you can leave your comments right on the website....let me know if you have a problem with doing this.

In any case, here is a national-security type stock somewhat in the flavor of Taser, that looks good to me and should be on firm footing for the near future. Ceradyne, Inc. (CRDN) "...develops, manufactures, and markets advanced technical ceramic products and components for industrial, defense, consumer and microwave applications." CRDN performed well today in an otherwise mediocre market. They closed at $30.50 up $3.54 or 13.13% on the day. What drove the price higher was a preliminary report on third quarter earnings. This story was released on BUSINESS WIRE and I read it online on the NYTimes on the Web.

For the quarter ended September 30, 2003, sales almost doubled to a record $27 million compared to $14.3 million last year. New orders for the quarter increased 225% (!!!) to a record $52 million from $16 million in the same quarter last year. These were initial results and net earnings were not made available.

Looking at Morningstar.com, we find a fairly steady increase in revenue with a slight hiccup in 2001: $26.3 million in revenue in 1998, $30.4 million in 1999, $45.9 million in 2000, $45.3 million in 2001 (the hiccup), $61.2 million in 2002 and $65 million in the trailing twelve months.

Earnings have been erratic but have increased from $0.04 to $.41 during the same period (1998-2002).
Free cash flow has been less impressive with $5 million in 2000, ($6) million in 2001, ($4) million in 2002 and $0 million in the trailing twelve months.

Assets/liabilities show $.5 million in cash and $37.3 million in other current assets, plenty to cover the $11.2 million in current liabilities and $1.8 million in long-term debt.

Looking at Yahoo.com, we find that this is a relatively small cap company with a market cap of $265.84 million. The trailing p/e is a bit high at 44.20 but the PEG ratio isn't bad at 1.68. The price/sales is up a bit at 3.21 but these numbers aren't too bad in light of the spectacular growth just reported.

There are 8.72 million shares outstanding with 7.50 million of them that float. 288,000 shares are out short representing 2.149 days of average trading as of 9/8/03. No dividend is paid.

This is an interesting stock that is right in the midst of our national security/defense issues. They are busy selling the government, as I understand it, ceramic armor including creramic armor vests for military personnel and ceramic armor for helicopters. They also have non-military business as well. I like this company a lot in terms of an investment but do not at this time own any shares. I am fairly optimistic about the future price performance of this stock.

Bob

October 7, 2003 Regis Corp. (RGS)
O.K. before the election returns come in from California, I wanted to get one more stock posted. And I have a conflict of interest on this one because this is where I get my haircut. I confess, I would rather have a young beautician clip my grey head of hair than an old guy at a barber shop. It is a weakness for me :). Regis Corp (RGS) had a nice day today. No I do not own any shares, and Yes I was joking about the conflict of interest....but I DO go there for my monthly clip. They closed today at $35.17 up $1.47 or 4.36% on the day. They announced today that revenue for the month of September grew 14% from last year to a record $143 million. Sounds nice, but their same store sales for the month weren't quite as exciting improving 1.3% over last year.

On August 26, 2003, Regis reported fourth quarter results for the quarter ended June 30, 2003. As reported on PRNewswire-FirstCall, and published on the NYTimes on the Web. Consolidated revenues for the fourth quarter increased 16.6% to a record $448 million from $384 million in hte same period last year. Earnings increased 11.1% to $.50/diluted share compared to $.45/diluted share last year.

Morningstar.com shows a fairly pretty picture. Revenue has been increasing annually from $0.9 billion in 1998, $1.0 billion in 1999, $1.1 billion in 2000, $1.3 billion in 2001, $1.5 billion in 2002, and $1.6 billion in the trailing twelve months.

Net income has increased almost without exception from $34 million in 1998 to $85 million in the trailing twelve months. On a per share basis this has been an increase from $.83 in 1998 to $1.87/share in trailing twelve months. In addition a small dividend has been paid which has increased from $.06 in 1998 to $.12 this past year.

The company has been managing their revenue well as the free cash flow, as noted on Morningstar.com, has improved from $4 million in 2000 to $92 million in the trailing twelve months.

This company DOES have a bit more debt that I might prefer with $62.1 million of cash and $217.8 million of current assets vs. $224.0 million of current liabilities and $356.3 million in long-term debt. Hopefully, with the positive cash flow, this isn't a problem and we will see the long-term debt reduced...just MY preference...it doesn't see to be a big issue to stop us from picking this stock.

This is a large company with a $1.54 billion market cap per Yahoo.com. The trailing p/e is reasonable at 17.55, the PEG ratio is very nice at 0.95 (less than 1.0) and price/sales also nice at 0.87. As I noted above the company DOES pay a small dividend with a current yield of 0.36%. There are 43.65 million shares outstanding and 41.50 million of them that float. There are 494,000 shares out short representing 2.586 days of trading as of 9/8/03.

Anyhow, this is an interesting stock that executes well and grows steadily. Not exactly high tech...but haircuts are certainly something one never outgrows! The price is reasonable and looks like a great pick except for a bit more debt than I might like....but watch this number closely as I anticipate improvement in months ahead.

Bob

October 7, 2003 CVS Corporation (CVS)
Hello Friends! I have a big large cap for all of you sports fans today. CVS Corporatio (CVS) is "...a drugstore chain specializing in prescription drugs, over-the-counter drugs, photofinishing services and film, greeting cards, beauty & cosmetics, convenience foods and seasonal merchandise." Today, CVS reported solid same-store sales results for September and raised estimates for the third quarter. This was enough to give a boost to CVS' price which currently is trading at $33.57, up $1.44 or 4.48% on the day.

According to The NYTimes on the Web, as reported by BUSINESS WIRE, on July 30, 2003, CVS reported their second quarter results. Net sales for the quarter increased 7.6% to a record $6.44 billion, up from $5.99 billion for the second quarter in 2002. Same store sales for the quarter were up 5.5% (note the increased growth reported above for September). Net earnings increased 13.3% to $199.8 million or $.49/diluted share vs $176.4 million or $.43/diluted share in 2002.

Looking at Morningstar.com, we find a steady revenue growth from $15.3 billion in 1998, $18.1 billion in 1999, $20.1 billion in 2000, $22.2 billion in 2001, $24.2 billion in 2002 and $25.0 billion in the trailing twelve months.

Net income has grown, although not quite as steadily, from $371 million in 1998 to $746 million in the trailing twelve months.

Free cash flow has been a bit erratic as well but per Morningstar was $85 million in 2000, ($33) million in 2001, $96 million in 2002, and a wonderful $276 million in the trailing twelve months.

Looking at the balance sheet on the same website, we find $566.8 million in cash and $5.1 billion in other current assets, more than enough to cover the current liabilities of $3.02 billion and long-term liabilities of $1.30 billion.

Looking at Yahoo.com, we find that this is truly a large cap stock with a market cap of $13.24 billion. The trailing p/e is reasonable at 17.27, the PEG ratio isn't too bad at 1.38 and the price/sales is a downright bargain (good for me is under 1.0) at 0.51.

Currently, there are 394.7 million shares outstanding with a float of 391.3 million shares. There are 5.14 million shares out short representing 2.685 trading days. This is down from last month's 6.23 million shares out short.

In addition to all of the above, the company DOES pay a small dividend of $.23/share with a yield of 0.72%. The last stock split was in June, 1998, which was a 2:1 split.

Now, in all fairness, I DO own some of these shares in a managed account where I do not make investment decisions, but I still like this company when we look at the numbers. The steady revenue growth, the reasonable p/e, the nice PEG ratio, and price/sales at 0.51. The recent explosion of free cash is also attractive, along with the expanding same store sales growth and optimistic comments by managers....If I had some money, you know the old song...this one would be high on my purchase list!

Thanks again for stopping by and feel free to contact me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com if you have any questions, comments, or word of encouragement!

Bob

October 6, 2003 Inter Parfums, Inc. (IPAR)
How about something sweet-smelling for an investment? How about a stock that is making money? Or how about I just tell you about this stock and cut out the nonsense? Now we are talking.

Came across this one today, Inter Parfums, Inc., sounds very French n'est ce pas?....but it is based in New York. IPAR is having a nice day today trading as I write at $10.98 up $.82 or 8.04%. I do not own any shares of this issue.

As you might guess, per money.cnn.com, Inter Parfums (IPAR) "...manufactures and distributes domestic and international brand name and licensed fragrances, alternative designer fragrances and mass market cosmetics."

On August 6, 2003, IPAR reported second quarter 2003 results. As reported on BUSINESS WIRE and picked up by the NYTimes on the Web, net sales increased 51% to $41.4 million from $27.4 million. Adjusting for comparable foreign currency exchange rates, the increase is reduced to a still healthy 38% ahead of last year.

Net Income increased 52% to $2.9 million from $1.9 million last year, and diluted earnings per share rose 50% to $.15 from $.10 per diluted share last year. (I am sure these last figures also need to be reduced slightly due to exchange rates effects).

The Morningstar.com look at the last 5 years looks very nice. Revenues have grown from $89 million in 1998, dropped slightly to $87 million in 1999, then up to $102 million in 2000, $112 million in 2001, $130 million in 2002, and is at $139 million for the trailing twelve months.

Net income has improved steadily from $5 million in 1998 to $10 million in the trailing twelve months.
Free cash flow is also healthy, improving from ($1) million in 2000, $5 million in 2001, $11 million in 2002, and $10 million in the trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet as reported by Morningstar also looks healthy: $40.4 million in cash and $86.5 million in other current assets vs. $38.6 million in current liabilities and only $15.2 million in long-term debt.

This is a small company with a market cap of $211.21 million per yahoo.com. The trailing p/e is nice at 18.82, the PEG ratio is reasonable at 0.99 and the price to sales ratio is also nice at 1.26.

There are 19.03 million shares outstanding with only 5.40 million of them that float. Only 12,000 shares are out short. And guess what? They even pay a small dividend of $0.08/share for a yield of 0.79%.
This stock has something for everyone!

O.K. I will stop the cheerleading....ruin my reputation...my only drawback on suggesting this stock is that is not consistent with my overall macho image. I mean how can real men suggest the purchase of a Perfume Factory? LOL

Hey thanks for stopping by again and I hope my posts are helpful to you and lead to greater not less financial success! Again, if you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, drop me a line at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

October 6, 2003 Fargo Electronics, Inc. (FRGO)
TGIM. Oh well...maybe I can start a new expression...anyhow, came across this one this morning and it looks pretty nice. See what you think...Fargo Electronics, Inc. (FRGO)...no it is not based in Fargo, North Dakota...but in Eden Prairie, Minnesota....is having a nice move today trading at $14.82, as I write, up $1.41 or 10.52%.

According to money.cnn.com, FRGO "...develops, manufactures, and supplies desktop systems that personalize plastic identification cards." I do not own any shares of this stock but if I had some cash, wouldn't be averse to buying a few shares.

On July 22, 2003, according to Business Wire, as reported on NYTimes.com, Fargo reported their secord quarter results for the quarter ended June 30, 2003. Net sales were $16.5 million, an increase of 12% over $14.7 million reported in the same period last year. Net income was $1.77 million or $.14 per diluted share compared to $1.2 million or $.10 per diluted share last year.

Morningstar.com shows a steady growth in revenue from $48 million in 1998, $55 million in 1999, $58 million in 2000, $61 million in 2001 and $66 million in 2002. The company turned profitable during that period from losses of ($65) million in 1999, to profits of $3 million, $4 million, $7 million in 2000, 2001, 2002 respectively.

Free cash flow while not consistent has been positive with $3 million reported in 2000, $11 million in 2001, $9 million in 2002, and $10 million in the trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet is quite clean with $4.0 million in cash and $17.3 million in other current assets vs. $6.6 million in current liabilities and NO long-term liabilities at all.

This is a small company with a market cap of $184.37 million. The trailing p/e is very reasonable at 20.95, the PEG ratio isn't bad at 1.27, and the price/sales is at 2.44. Yahoo.com further reports that there are 12.41 million shares outstanding and only 6.70 million of them that float. There are only 198,000 shares out short...but due to low trading volume, this represents 3.046 trading days.

This is a nice, financially healthy and growing growth type stock. I am not real familiar with their business product, but I am sure that identification badges are becoming more common in the workplace.

Thanks again for stopping by and if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to drop me a line at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

October 5, 2003
Hello friends! I hope you are all enjoying your weekend. Before we get to the week of August 18, 2003, I would like to say I am pretty impressed at the strength of the market last week. Our stocks bounced right back and if you look at the trading portfolio, you will see that our overall profits are pretty volatile and we undid the damage of the prior week, putting our total gains (realized and unrealized) up to about $22k for the year. However, the margin level is pretty high and we will need to look at pruning gains when they become available and holding tight to our 8% stops.

During the week of August 18, 2003, I listed six stocks on this site. It was indeed a mixed bag. A couple did well and a couple have done poorly. Remember, that in real life we would be holding to our 8% stops...and selling the weak ones quickly, hopefully hanging on tightly to those that are rising.

The six selections were: Measurement Specialties (MSS) at $12.31 on August 18, 2003; Polymedica Corporation (PLMD) at $46.06 on August 18, 2003; Dynacq Int'l (DYII) at $24.50 on August 19, 2003; LifeWay Foods (LWAY) at $14.51 on August 21, 2003; Electronics Boutique (ELBO) at $32.30 on August 22, 2003; and DJ Orthopedics (DJO) at $10.89 on August 22, 2003.

Measurement Specialties (MSS) closed at $13.23 on October 3, 2003. This was a gain of $.92 or 7.5%.

Polymedica split 2:1 on September 29, 2003, and closed on October 3, 2003, at $26.54 (equivalent to $53.08 on a pre-split basis). This is a gain of $7.02/share (pre-split) or $15.2%.

Dynacq Int'l wasn't as lucky when it came under fire in Barron's. DYII closed October 3, 2003 at $19.18, down from the selection price of $24.50 by ($5.32) or (21.7%).

LifeWay Foods (LWAY) was selected on August 21, 2003, at $14.51. LWAY closed October 3, 2003, at $13.86, a loss of ($.65) or (4.5%). We actually had LifeWay in our trading account and sold it at a loss as well before accumulating too much of a deficit.

Electronic Boutique (ELBO) was selected on August 22, 2003, at $32.30. ELBO closed at $30.55 on October 3, 2003 for a loss of ($1.75) or (5.4%).

Finally, DJ Orthopedics (DJO) was selected on August 22, 2003, for $10.89. DJO, one of our stronger stocks from the week, closed October 3, 2003, at $13.90, for a gain of $3.01 or 27.6%.

The performance of the six stocks were +7.5%, +15.2%, -21.7%, -4.5%, -5.4%, and +27.6%. The average of that performance is +3.1%, not terribly exciting, but not too bad considering that this evaluation allows our losses to run up without stopping them, and the time period was only about 6 weeks.

Thanks again for visiting. Please drop me a line at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement!

Bob

October 3, 2003 Genesis Microchip Inc. (GNSS)
Hello friends! It is late Friday and I certainly have better something better to do than posting another entry....but a fellow has got to do what he has got to do...and I cannot leave an entry unentered! So here we go with Genesis. Sounds like a book in the Bible don't you think?

Genesis Microchip (GNSS) had a great day in the market today....along with LOTS of other stocks. Thank goodness the market held the bulk of the rally. GNSS closed today at $13.28 up $1.59 for the day or 13.60%. That sure beats those money market returns!

According to money.cnn.com, Genesis Michochip "...designs, develops and markets integrated circuits that manipulate and process digital video and graphic images." Apparently, they are addressing chip needs of the flat panel display market and flat panel television market.

The most recent quarter results were posted on July 29, 2003, when GNSS reported on Business Wire as related on Yahoo.com, their first quarter Fiscal 2004 results. (Doesn't it get confusing when some people are still posting 3rd quarter fiscal 2003 results, other companies are posting their 2004 first quarter results?) Total revenues for the quarter were $53.9 million, up 30% from last year's $41.6 million quarterly result. Net income for the quarter was $1.4 million or $.04/share compared to a loss of ($4.0) million or ($.13)/share last year.

Morningstar.com shows steady revenue growth with $37.7 million reported in 1999, $53.3 million in 2000, $63.6 million in 2001, $163.4 million in 2002, and $194 million in 2003.

Free cash flow has improved from ($16) million in 2001, to $13 million in 2002 and $10 million in 2003.

This company is flush with cash with $113.1 million in cash, way more than enough to cover the current liabilities of $27.9 million and $1.0 million in long-term debt. In addition, they have $46.7 million in other current assets. (all per Morningstar.com).

Yahoo.com showsthis company with a market cap of $417.60 million, no trailing p/e as they just turned profitable, a PEG ratio of 1.73 and price/sales of 1.78.

There are 31.45 million shares outstanding and 30.50 million that float.

I like this company a lot...but it is a bit speculative as it is just turning profitable...would rather have a longer record of profitability. Certainly the balance sheet is excellent, and they are positioned well in the fast growing field of flat panel displays. If this is your cup of tea, this might indeed be an excellent pick! I do not own any shares of this issue. Have a great weekend and come visit again soon.

Bob